A European point of view
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2 Grain prices instability and risk management A European point of view Michel Ferret FranceAgriMer / Paris Mexico, 22 / 23 March 2012
3 Overview of the presentation European Union : Key figures Price instability : definitions Reasons for the growing instability In the world In the EU Risk management tools Final remarks
4 I-Some facts about the European union
5 27 Member states (1962 : 6 Member states, 7 successive enlargments ) + Croatia in July 2013 Population 2011 : 500 million inhabitants GNP 2011 : billion $; USA : billion $ Cereals production : 290 Mt ( 15 % of world production, excl. Rice). (France : 65 Mt) Wheat : 135 Mt Maize : 60 Mt Exports (all grains) : 25 / 30 Mt Import (all grains) : 10 Mt Oilseeds production : 25 Mt
6 II-Price instability -Fluctuations over a longer period -Volatility, especially since A curse for many countries
7 Price fluctuations : wheat, maize, soyabeans ($/ton, Fob gulf) SRW fob YC 3 fob Soja fob en $/t 31/10/07 06/12/07 16/01/08 21/02/08 12/07/07 20/08/07 25/09/07 31/03/08 07/05/08 16/06/08 24/07/08 29/08/08 07/10/08 12/11/08 18/12/08 28/01/09 06/03/09 14/04/09 22/05/ /06/09 05/08/09 11/09/09 19/10/09 24/11/09 31/12/09 08/02/10 16/03/10 22/04/10 01/06/10 07/07/10 13/08/10 20/09/10 26/10/10 01/12/10 07/01/11 14/02/11 22/03/11 27/04/11 02/06/11 08/07/11 15/08/11 20/09/11 26/10/
8 Volatility : daily fluctuations in Chicago (July May 2008) MCE/CBOT
9 Reasons for the growing price instability in the grain world markets Global supply and demand balance Stocks / consumption ratio Level of tightness of the trade World trade of the cereal / production ratio Weather market La Nina Political interference in the national trade policy (Russia, Ukraine, Argentina..) Growing involvement of financial investors See next slides
10 Financial investment on the derivatives markets (futures/options + OTC) Outstanding amount on the world s derivatives markets : ~ billions $, (world GNP x 12!!) Organised markets (Futures/options) : only ~ billions $ OTC : billions $ Breakdown of OTC (December 2010, in billions $) : Interest rates : Currencies : Credit Default Swaps : Equities : Commodities (all sectors) : Others : Source : Bank for international settlements
11 Financial bubble in the grain market in 2007/08 SRW fob YC 3 fob Soja fob en $/t /07/07 20/08/07 25/09/07 31/10/07 06/12/07 16/01/08 21/02/08 31/03/08 07/05/08 16/06/08 24/07/08 29/08/08 07/10/08 12/11/08 18/12/08 28/01/09 06/03/09 14/04/09 22/05/09 29/06/09 05/08/09 11/09/09 19/10/09 24/11/09 31/12/09 08/02/10 16/03/10 22/04/10 01/06/10 07/07/10 13/08/10 20/09/10 26/10/10 01/12/10 07/01/11 14/02/11 22/03/11 27/04/11 02/06/11
12 The reasons for price instability in the European union (1) The reforms of the EU Common Agricultural Policy (1992,2000, 2003,2009) The support price («Intervention price» at the wholesale level) has been lowered 180 /t > 101 /t (~235 $/t >130 $/t) More leeway for price instability The direct link between world market (US grain prices) and the EU market The «Fortress Europe» is a myth! Since 2007 : all imported grain enter the EU under a reduced (max. 16 /t) or O levy! A mostly theoretical border protection (< WTO and bilateral agreements)
13 $/t 15/03/ /06/ /09/ /12/ /03/ /06/ /09/ /12/ /03/ /06/ /09/ /12/ /03/ /06/ /09/ /12/ /03/ /06/ /09/ /12/ /03/2012 A direct connexion between French and US wheat (export prices) FCW, fob Rouen US, SRW, fob Golfe Source : CIC/FAM
14 The reasons for price instability in the European union (2) Increasing competition from the Black Sea «global players» Irregularity of production and export potential «Political interferences» Despite stability of the EU-production!!
15 Exports by Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan (all grains, Mt) : Huge swings / / / / / / / / / / /12 (prévisions) Kazakhstan Ukraine Russia
16 EU grain production (Mt) : stability and high level of self-sufficiency (> 110 %) Nota : until 2003 incl. : 15 Member states! 319,0 290,0 261,0 232,0 203,0 174,0 145,0 116,0 87,0 58,0 29,0 0,0 Toutes céréales Blé Maïs Source : CIC
17 Wheat imports needs, by region 2011/12 5% 7% 51% 5% 22% 10% 1%
18 III-Risk management against price instability in the EU
19 Risk management tools against price instability in the EU «Intervention» (= public purchases) : no longer effective Derivatives markets : futures and options contracts Other tools
20 Derivatives market : NYSE Euronext futures exchange, Paris ; Futures and options exchanges for milling wheat, maize, malting barley, rapeseed, milkpowder A growing interest in France for the futures and options markets, especially since 2006 Number of contracts in milling wheat is skyrocketting All wholesale traders (merchants and coops) and grain processors resort to this instruments Producers are cautious See next slide The French contracts have become European contracts (wheat, rapeseed) Strong interest in the EU for Paris contracts EUREX Francfort contracts for Ag. Commodities not representative Interaction with Chicago (CME-CBoT)
21 Futures contracts in Paris (NYSE-Euronext) in 1000 contracts ( 50 tons) MAIS BLE COLZA
22 Futures contracts in Chicago and NY Exchanges (1000 contracts) MAIS BLE SOJA SUCRE
23 .. But the futures and options markets are not a Panacea Chicago : good governance, but.. Is the SRW contract representative? (HRW, Kansas City better suited?) Problems with convergence between «physical/cash» price and futures price for wheat Paris : good governance, but.. No Commitment of Traders (= impossible to know the weight of «speculators») No daily Limit up / Limit down (= high daily volatility possible) No real position limits Reforms of derivatives markets in progress USA : Dodd-Franck Act EU : Overhaul of Directives MIFID and MAD EU lags behind London reluctant
24 Other tools Crop / income insurance ; The EU Commission tries to promote these tools, on the US model Spain : a certain success France : little success Tax policy (for ex. France) Provision for future income losses (due to bad crops) Action plan on Storage (France, private sector)
25 IV-Final remarks
26 The greater picture : «General» tools Increase productivity Improve market knowledge (statistics and analysis) The AMIS system Tool box < G 20 Action plan (2011)
27 Thank you for your attention
Weather & crops conditions
Trade Weekly volume - thousand tonnes Total MY - million tonnes Weekly volume - thousand tonnes Total MY - million tonnes Weekly volume - thousand tonnes Total MY - million tonnes Million tonnes Production
DEC'15: 179 MAY'16: 188 DEC'16: 190 Daily volume /09 23/09 03/10 13/10 23/10 02/11 12/11. Euronext milling wheat futures
Trade Weekly volume - thousand tons Total f or MY - million tons Weekly volume - thousand tons Total f or MY - million tons Weekly volume - thousand tons Total f or MY - million tons Million tons Production
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