Weekly Review. Outlook. Pakistan Weekly Update StockSmart. AKD Equity Research / Pakistan. 20 July AKD Research. Index & Volume Chart

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1 AKD Equity Research / Pakistan AKD Research research@akdsecurities.net Top- 5 V olume Le a de rs S ymbol V olume (mn) BOP : FCCL : KEL : LOTCHEM : EPCL : Jul-17 Indices KSE-100 KSE-30 This w eek 41,222 20,398 Last w eek 40,271 19,865 Indices KMI-30 Allshare This w eek 68,889 29,947 Last w eek 67,135 29,364 Mkt Cap. PkRbn US$bn This w eek 8, Last w eek 8, Avg. Daily Turnover ('mn shares) This w eek Last w eek Change 67.92% (share mn) Volume (LHS) KSE-100 Index (Index) 47,000 45,000 43,000 41,000 39,000 37,000 Source: PSX & AKD Research Weekly Review Reeling on political crisis (further intensified by the arrest of Nawaz Sharif and his daughter), market opened the week on a negative note, plunging 605pts on its first trading session. However, fresh liquidity deployed by local AMCs rendered the much-needed support, with KSE-100 index closing the week at 41,222pts (up 951pts/2.36%WoW). Steel and cements garnered investors interest, as the respective sector increased retail prices passing on rupee depreciation impact. Trading activity at the bourse substantially improved during the week, with avg. daily turnover increasing to mn shares (up 67.92%WoW). Key news flows impacting the market were: 1) Current account deficit for FY18 reached record levels of US$18.0bn, reflecting a growth of 42.6%YoY from US$12.6bn in FY17, while GoP financed the external imbalance through US$11.4bn borrowings, 2) Rupee further lost 5.4% against Greenback on Monday, with PKR/US$ parity closing the week at PkR128.5, 3) Total FX reserves declined by US$402mn, ending at US$15.7bn while central bank reserves plunged 4.4%WoW to record at US$9.1bn (implying import cover of 1.9 months), 4) SBP withdrew advance payment facility for importers and imposed 100% cash margin requirement on non -essential items, 5) FBR has allowed sales tax adjustment paid at customs clearance stage by steel melters on import of raw materials including various categories of remeltable iron and steel scrap. Performance wise, UBL (+10.59%WoW), MLCF (+9.67%WoW), NCL (+8.89% WoW) and ASTL (+8.89%WoW) were major gainers in our AKD Universe, while laggards included: 1) NBP (-3.20%WoW), 2) PSMC (-1.91%WoW), 3) FFBL (-1.57%WoW and 4) GWLC (- 1.39%WoW). Foreigners continued to offload equity stakes during the week, with net outflow of US$22.1mn compared to net outflow of US$26.63mn in the previous week. (Shrs'000) 350, , , , , ,000 50,000 Index & Volume Chart - Source: PSX & AKD Research Outlook 39,933 39,666 40,898 41,796 41, Jul 17-Jul 18-Jul 19-Jul 20-Jul Ready Volume (LHS) KSE100 Index (RHS) (Index) 42,000 41,500 41,000 40,500 40,000 39,500 39,000 38,500 Universe Gainers & Losers With the country heading to General Elections 2018 (scheduled on Jul 25 18), political euphoria once again likely to dominate in the week ahead. In this regard, market activity could switch gear down, with investors staying on sidelines till election results. Post-election, market will react positively to strong mandate irrespective of which political party (PML-N or PTI) takes the lead. 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% UBL MLCF NCL ASTL DGKC KAPCO GWLC FFBL PSMC NBP Important disclosures Important disclosures including investment banking relationships and analyst certification at end of this report. AKD Securities does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of the report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. AKD Securities TREC Holder & Registered Broker Pakistan Stock Exchange REP-108 Find AKD research on Bloomberg (AKDS<GO>), firstcall.com and Reuters Knowledge Copyright 2018 AKD Securities Limited. All rights reserved. The information provided on this document is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to law or regulation or which would subject AKD Securities or its affiliates to any registration requirement within such jurisdiction or country. Neither the information, nor any opinion contained in this document constitutes a solicitation or offer by AKD Securities or its affiliates to buy or sell any securities or provide any investment advice or service. AKD Securities does not warrant the accuracy of the information provided herein.

2 Jul 20, ,830 41,730 41,630 41,530 41,430 41,330 9:30 9:54 10:19 10:44 11:08 11:33 11:57 12:22 12:47 13:11 13:36 14:01 14:25 14:50 15:15 9:30 9:55 10:19 10:44 11:09 11:33 11:58 12:23 12:47 13:12 13:37 14:01 14:26 14:51 15:15 41,230 41,130 41,030 Jul 19, ,000 41,900 41,800 41,700 41,600 41,500 41,400 41,300 41,200 41,100 41,000 Jul 18, ,952 40,808 40,664 40,520 40,376 40,232 40,088 39,944 39,800 Jul 17, ,000 39,900 39,800 39,700 39,600 39,500 39,400 39,300 39,200 Jul 16, ,600 40,400 40,200 40,000 39,800 39,600 39,400 39,200 9:15 9:38 10:02 10:25 10:49 11:12 11:36 11:59 12:23 12:46 13:10 13:33 13:56 14:20 14:43 15:07 15:30 15:54 16:17 9:30 9:53 10:17 10:40 11:04 11:28 11:51 12:15 12:38 13:01 13:25 13:48 14:12 14:35 14:59 15:23 9:32 9:57 10:22 10:46 11:11 11:36 12:00 12:25 12:50 13:14 13:39 14:04 14:28 14:53 15:18 Source: PSX & AKD Research This Week s Daily Reports Pakistan Economy: Current Account weakness to continue, (AKD Daily, Jul 20, 2018) Current account deficit for FY18 reached record levels of US$18.0bn breaching its previous high of US$13.9bn in FY08, though in relative terms it remains significantly lower at 5.7% of GDP vs. 8.2% in FY08. Reflecting growth of 42.6%YoY from US$12.6bn in FY17, the higher deficit is primarily a function of growing trade imbalance (+16.5%YoY) while tepid remittance inflows (marginally up 1.4%YoY) are a further strain. Going forward, external account weakness is likely to persist in FY19F where we estimate deficit to remain elevated at 5.4% of GDP. Despite incorporating hefty growth in exports (10.6%YoY in FY19F), imbalance is being driven by higher oil import bill (+20.0%YoY in FY19F assuming average Arab light at US$70/bbl) and staggered machinery imports (where a sharp drop seems unlikely considering the upcoming IPPs next year). Additionally, lack of support from remittances (FY19F: growth of +1.0%YoY) will be an added burden on current account stability. This along with sizable debt repayments, estimated at US$7.5bn, is likely to push gross external financing at US$21.8bn in FY19F. In this backdrop, we believe the precarious economic situation at hand makes an entry into the IMF a certainty. Pakistan Steel: Risks are overplayed, reiterate buy on ASTL, (AKD Daily, Jul 19, 2018) The domestic long steel sector lost 33.6% CYTD, with sentiments marred by numerous challenges including: 1) commerce division s proposal to withdraw duty on steel products and 2) adverse budgetary measures (i.e. additional sales tax levy and reduction in developmental budget). Amongst major players, ASTL has seen steep correction (down 42.4%CYTD) on account of delayed materialization of its flagship Dhabeji expansion. With a change in macroeconomic landscape, we have revised down our earnings estimates (FY19/FY20F: 6%/5%) for ASTL incorporating macro developments (interest rate hike and rupee depreciation) while adjusting for maintenance shut down. Consequently, our rolled forward (Jun 19) TP comes down to PkR 117/sh (previously at PkR135/sh). With regulatory protection remaining in place alongwith sector s strong pricing power (as evident from last three price hikes post rupee devaluation, prices up 20% since Jan 18), we feel concerns regarding margin stability are unwarranted. Sector valuations have become increasingly appealing with ASTL trading at an attractive FY19F P/E of 5.15x (35% retracement since Dec 17). With protective measures duly in place along with strong earnings growth outlook (4yr forward NPAT CAGR of 18%), we reiterate our buy call on ASTL. Pakistan Cements: Fundamental Challenges Continues, (AKD Daily, Jul 18, 2018) In-line with recent negative developments, we have downward revised our Cement Universe TPs by an average of 20%. The new estimates incorporate i) recent interest rate hikes with avg. FY19 KIBOR at 8%, ii) avg. PkR/US$ parity at and iii) increased coal price (revised to US$95/90 per ton for FY19/onwards). Despite the obvious negatives, we believe recent sector underperformance (down 31% over the past 3M vis-à-vis KSE-100 at ve12.8%) has already reflected much of the adverse developments where keeping in view overall market performance, staggered build-up in selected names is recommended. In this regard, favored names include LUCK (TP: PkR666/sh current price at PkR478/sh down 52% from peak), DGKC (TP: PkR118/sh current price at PkR96/sh down 61% from peak), MLCF (TP: PkR65/sh current price at PkR42/sh down 70% from peak) and PIOC (TP: PkR70/sh current price at PkR70 down 74% from peak). Tailwinds include a continued increase in cement prices as well as sustained / increasing demand while headwinds including cost escalations including increased coal prices, currency deval as well as increased interest rates. Pakistan Economy: PkR losing ground on BoP weakness, (AKD Daily, Jul 17, 2018) Interest rate hike in the confluence with an unexpected currency adjustment took toll on the market with the KSE-100 index losing 1.5% in market capitalization. Economic concerns pertaining to the escalating external imbalance and consequent slippage in FX reserves, 2

3 This Week s Daily Reports rising fiscal deficit and buildup of inflationary pressures have come to the fore reinforcing the view of imminent entry into another IMF program. The recent round of devaluation marks the fourth currency adjustment in the last eight months where we expect further volatility until IMF program (base case PkR/US$ parity at 133 by Jun'19). In this backdrop, we expect currency devaluation to emerge as a key investment theme benefitting exporting (Textiles and IT) and dollar hedged (IPPs, E&Ps) sectors. As an extended advantage, Commercial Banks should also stand to benefit from consequent increase in interest rates while Cements, Fertilizer, Pharmaceuticals and Autos are expected to suffer on higher input costs. Our preferred plays include MCB, HBL, OGDC, NML, HUBC and LUCK. Pakistan Banks: Adjusting for higher rates, (AKD Daily, Jul 16, 2018) SBP has increased interest rates by a 100bps in Jul 18 MPS resulting in a cumulative bump of 175bps in CY18 so far, citing the following reasons: 1) NFNE core inflation at 7.0%YoY in Jun 18, 2) rising fiscal deficit (FY18E: 6.8% vs. GoP s target of 5.5%), and 3) escalating external imbalance as key determinants. The swift pace of increments has come as a surprise, where we have accordingly revised upwards our average DR assumption to 7.50 % in CY18F (previously at 7.0%).This remains particularly positive for banks, with net interest margins likely improving on the back of higher asset yields. Accordingly, our earnings estimates for the Big-6 banks have increased by an avg % for CY18F. While banks will continue to struggle in CY18F (earnings to decelerate on the back of one-off exogenous charges during the year), recovery thereon should be swift (CY19F earnings growth of average 24%) making a strong long-term investment case. In addition to, the attractive forward valuation set at hand (CY19F PB/PER at 1.1/7.4x) post a sharp reduction in prices (AKD Banking Universe lost 7% CYTD) furthers our investment thesis. We advise building position in We advice building position in undervalued names like HBL, UBL, MCB and BAFL. 3

4 Jul-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Dec-17 AKD Securities Limited Regional Valuations (2018) EPS Growth PE(x) Pakistan 16.45% 7.29 Indonesia 10.09% Malaysia 12.13% Philippines 7.38% Vitenam 12.19% India 17.81% China 13.42% 9.95 % ROE Divd Yld Pakistan 16.4% 6.91 Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Vitenam India China Source: Bloomberg & AKD Universe PkR/US$ Trend TRJ-CRB Index Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg Major World Indices Performance Country Bloomberg Code WoW CYTD Pakistan KSE100 Index 41,222 40, % 1.9% Srilanka CSEALL Index 6,191 6, % -2.8% Thailand SET Index 1,671 1, % -4.7% Indonesia JCI Index 5,873 5, % -7.6% Malaysia FBMKLCI Index 1,755 1, % -2.3% Philippines PCOMP Index 7,400 7, % -13.5% Vietnam VNINDEX Index % -5.2% Hong Kong HSI Index 28,224 28, % -5.7% Singapore FSSTI Index 3,298 3, % -3.1% Brazil IBX Index 32,681 31, % 3.4% Russia RTSSTD Index 14,917 15, % 9.1% India SENSEX Index 36,496 36, % 7.2% S&P SPX Index 2,805 2, % 4.9% DJIA INDU Index 25,104 25, % 1.6% UK UKX Index 7,673 7, % -0.2% Germany DAX Index 12,542 12, % -2.9% Qatar DSM Index 9,421 9, % 10.5% Abu Dhabi ADSMI Index 4,770 4, % 8.4% Dubai DFMGI Index 2,926 2, % -13.2% Kuwait KWSEIDX Index 6,633 6, % 3.5% Oman MSM30 Index 4,448 4, % -11.9% Saudi Arabia SASEIDX Index 8,450 8, % 16.9% MSCI EM MXEF Index 1,061 1, % -8.4% MSCI FM MXFM Index % -11.3% International Major Currencies Commodities Source: Bloomberg SPOT Chg +/- WoW CYTD Dollar Index % 2.71% USD/PkR % 16.34% USD/JPY % -0.81% EUR/USD % -2.46% GBP/USD % -3.00% AUD/USD % -5.07% NZD/USD % -4.11% CHF/USD % 2.09% CAD/USD % 4.43% USD/KRW 1,134 1, % 5.89% CNY/USD % 4.00% Source: Bloomberg SPOT Units WoW CYTD TRJ-CRB Points % -0.76% Nymex (WTI) US$/bbl % 15.67% ICE Brent US$/bbl % 9.01% N. Gas Henry Hub US$/Mmbtu % % Cotton USd/Pound % 9.32% Gold US$/Tr.Oz % -5.67% Sliver US$/Tr.Oz % -8.62% Copper US$/MT % % Platinum US$/Oz % % Coal US$/MT % 13.76% Source: Bloomberg 4

5 Jul-17 Jul-17 Dec-17 AKD Securities Limited Chart Bank Earnings Yield vs. T-Bill (12M) Differential Advance to Decline Ratio (%) Jul-17 Dec-17 Dec-17 Jul-17 FIPI Flows for the week LIPI Flows for the week (US$'000) 2,000 - (2,000) (1,651) Ind., 9.83 Co., 7.31 M.Funds, 6.63 Ins, (4,000) (6,000) (4,322) - NBFC, (0.32) Others, 0.74 (8,000) (7,141) (5.00) (10,000) (12,000) (9,667) (10.00) (15.00) Bank/DFI, (9.01) Prop. Trading, (6.05) AKD Universe vs. KSE-100 Index KSE-100 vs. MSCI-EM & MSCI-FM 8% 3% -2% -7% -12% -17% -22% -27% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% KSE100 MSCI FM MSCI EM -32% -37% -10% -15% -20% KSE-All Share Index AKD Universe 5

6 Jul-07 Apr-08 Jan-09 Nov-09 Aug-10 May-11 Mar-12 Dec-12 Sep-13 Jul-14 Apr-15 Jan-16 Nov-16 Jul-07 Mar-08 Dec-08 Sep-09 Jun-10 Mar-11 Nov-11 Aug-12 May-13 Feb-14 Nov-14 Jul-15 Apr-16 Jan-17 AKD Securities Limited AKD Universe Valuations F 2019F EPS (PkR) EPS chg (%) (1.54) 1.85 (7.16) EPS chg (%) ex-e&p (15.73) Book Value per Share (PkR) Payout (%) Valuations Price to Earnings (x) PER (ex-e&p) (x) Price to Book (x) Price to CF (x) Earnings Yield (%) Dividend Yield (%) EV / EBITDA (x) Profitability Return on Equity (%) Return on Assets (%) Chg in Sales (%) (7.94) (13.73) Gross Margin (%) Operating Margin (%) Net Margin (%) Source: AKD Research Market PER Chart 2018 (x) Source: AKD Research Market P/BVS Chart 2018 (x) Source: AKD Research 6

7 AKD Universe Active Coverage Cluster s Valuations Stock Symbol Price TP Stance EPS(PkR) PE(x) PB(x) DY(%) UR Under Review (PkR) (PkR) 17 18F 19F 17 18F 19F 17 18F 19F 17 18F 19F Automobile and Parts Indus Motors INDU 1, , Buy Pak Suzuki Motors PSMC Buy Cements DG Khan Cement DGKC Accumulate Lucky Cement LUCK Buy Maple Leaf Cement Factory MLCF Buy Fauji Cement Company Ltd. FCCL Accumulate Pioneer Cement Limited PIOC Buy Cherat Cement Co Limited CHCC Neutral Gharibwal Cement Ltd GWLC Buy Cable & Electrical Goods Pak Elektron Ltd PAEL Buy Engineering Amreli Steels Ltd. ASTL Buy Fertilizers Engro Corporation ENGRO Accumulate Engro Fertilizers Limited EFERT Accumulate Fauji Fert. Bin Qasim Ltd. FFBL Buy Fauji Fertilizer Company FFC Accumulate Fatima Fertilizer FATIMA Buy Food Producers Engro Foods Limited EFOODS Neutral Oil & Gas Oil & Gas Development Co. OGDC Buy Pak Oilfields POL Accumulate Pakistan Petroleum PPL Buy Hascol Petroleum HASCOL Neutral Attock Petroleum APL Buy Pakistan State Oil PSO Buy Power Hub Power Co. HUBC Buy K-Electric Co. KEL UR UR UR UR UR UR UR UR UR UR UR UR UR UR UR Kot Addu Power Company KAPCO Accumulate Personal Goods Nishat Mills NML Buy Nishat Chunian Ltd. NCL Accumulate Banks Allied Bank Limited ABL Reduce Bank AlFalah BAFL Reduce Habib Bank Limited HBL Buy MCB Bank Limited MCB Buy National Bank of Pakistan NBP Buy United Bank Ltd UBL Buy Source: AKD Research 7

8 AKD Universe Coverage Cluster s Performance S toc ks S ymbol P ric e Absolute P e rforma nc e (%) 1 Y e a r 1 Y e a r Jul- 18 1M 3M 6M 12 M CY TD High Low KS E Inde x 4 1, , , Automobile a nd P a rts Indus Motors INDU Pak Suzuki Motors PSMC Ce me nts DG Khan Cement DGKC Lucky Cement LUCK Maple Leaf Cement Factory MLCF Fauji Cement Company Ltd. FCCL Pioneer Cement Limited PIOC Cherat Cement Limited CHCC Gharibwal Cement Limited GWLC Engine e ring Amreli Steel Ltd ASTL Fe rtilize rs Dawood Hercules DAWH Engro Fertilizers Ltd. EFERT Engro Chemical ENGRO Fatima Fertilizer FATIMA Fauji Fert. Bin Qasim Ltd. FFBL Fauji Fertilizer Company FFC Food P roduc e rs Engro Foods Limited EFOODS Ca ble & Ele c tric a l Goods Pak Elektron Limited PAEL Oil & Ga s Oil & Gas Development Co. OGDC Pak Oilfields POL Pakistan Petroleum Ltd. PPL Pakistan State Oil PSO Attock Petroleum Ltd. APL Hascol Petroleum HASCOL P owe r Hub Power Co. HUBC K- Electric Limited KEL Kot Addu Power Company KAPCO Fixe d Line Te le c ommunic a tion Pakistan Telecommunication PTC P e rsona l Goods Nisaht (Chunian) Ltd. NCL Nishat Mills NML Ba nks Allied Bank Limited ABL Bank AlFalah BAFL Habib Bank Limited HBL MCB Bank Limited MCB National Bank of Pakistan NBP United Bank Ltd UBL Source: PSX & AKD Research 8

9 Economic Snapshot End Month Data Units Dec-17 Monetary Rates T-Bills - 3M % T-Bills - 6M % T-Bills - 12M % PIB 10Y % KIBOR 6M % Discount rate % Policy rate % Inflation Headline inflation % Core inflation % Food inflation % (0.20) External Indicators Export (PBS) US$ (mn) 1,888 1,974 1,977 1,971 1,902 2,231 2,133 2,144 Import (PBS) US$ (mn) 4,929 4,898 4,910 5,607 4,797 5,280 5,066 5,814 Trade Deficit (PBS) US$ (mn) (3,041) (2,924) (2,933) (3,636) -2,895-3, Export (SBP) 2,380 2,546 2,464 2,111 2,059 2,305 2,246 2,266 Import (SBP) 5,258 5,346 5, ,334 4,943 4,949 5,149 Trade Deficit (SBP) (2,878) (2,800) (2,676) (2,763) (2,275) (2,638) (2,703) (2,883) Home Remittances US$ (mn) 1,654 1,577 1,724 1,639 1,672 1,651 1,771 Current Account US$ (mn) (1,315) (1,441) (1,256) -1,617-1,241 1, Banking Sector Deposits PkR (bn) 11,777 11,969 12,362 12,002 11,933 12,571 12,277 12,258 13,063 Advances PkR (bn) 6,151 6,280 6,530 6,556 6,629 6,812 6,839 7,046 7,362 Investments PkR (bn) 8,342 8,475 8,542 7,637 8,127 6,853 7,784 6,733 8,179 W. A. lending rate % W. A. deposit rate % Spread rate % Public Finance Tax collection PkR (mn) 541, , , , , ,486 Direct taxes PkR (mn) 270, , , , , ,243 Indirect Taxes PkR (mn) 270, , , , , ,243 Currency Fx Reserves US$ (mn) 19,584 18,774 20,154 18,957 18,317 17,796 17,540 15,977 16,386 USDPkR - Interbank PkR/USD Source: SBP, PBS & AKD Research 9

10 Analyst Certification We, the AKD Research Team, hereby individually & jointly certify that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our personal views about the subject securities and issuers. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is,or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report. We further certify that we do not have any beneficial holding of the specific securities that we have recommendations on in this report. AKD Research Team Analyst Tel no. Coverage Umer Pervez (693) Executive Director Research & Business Development Zoya Ahmed (603) Banks, Telecoms & Consumers Haris Imtiaz (639) Economy Ali Asghar Poonawala (646) OMCs & Automobiles Waqas Imdad Ali (634) Cements & Fertilizer M.Daniyal Kanani (602) Oil & Gas & Power Umer Farooq (637) Textiles & Steel Bilal Ahsan Elahi (685) Automobiles Qasim Anwar (680) Technical Analysis Nasir Khan (639) Research Production Tariq Mehmood (643) Library Operations DISCLOSURES & DISCLAIMERS This publication/communication or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of AKD Securities Limited. AKD Securities Limited has produced this report for private circulation to professional and institutional clients only. The information, opinions and estimates herein are not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity in any jurisdiction where doing so would be contrary to law or regulation or which would subject AKD Securities Limited to any additional registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. The information and statistical data herein have been obtained from sources we believe to be reliable and complied by our research department in good faith. Such information has not been independently verified and we make no representation or warranty as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. Any opinions or estimates herein reflect the judgment of AKD Securities Limited at the date of this publication/ communication and are subject to change at any time without notice. This report is not a solicitation or any offer to buy or sell any of the securities mentioned herein. 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