INTERGLOBE AVIATION Yield pressure moderates

Transcription

1 RESULT UPDATE INTERGLOBE AVIATION Yield pressure moderates India Equity Research Aviation InterGlobe Aviation s (IndiGo) Q4FY17 revenue grew a decent 19% YoY to INR48.5bn driven by 26% YoY spurt in RPKM. Passenger yield pressure eased somewhat during the quarter corrected only 4% YoY to INR3.50/RPKM versus 16% fall in Q3FY17. On the cost front, fuel/askm spiked 33% YoY to INR1.26; cost/askm (ex-fuel) fell 9% YoY to INR1.84. PAT at INR4.4bn tumbled 25% YoY as overall EBITDAR margin plummeted ~940bps YoY to 27.5%. While pressure on yields moderated in Q4FY17, rising capacity in the industry remains a concern. We value IndiGo at 8.0x FY19E EBITDAR, yielding target price of INR1052. Maintain HOLD. Pressure on yields eases IndiGo continued to clock healthy volume (RPKM) growth of 26% YoY, while capacity (ASKM) grew 24%, resulting in 120bps YoY improvement in load factor. Management reiterated strategy to match competition s fares. This has reflected in average passenger yield dropping 4% YoY in Q4FY17. Ancillary revenue grew 3.1% YoY with overall revenue spurt of 19% YoY to INR48.5bn. On the cost front, fuel/askm spiked 33% YoY to INR1.26 (fuel price up 38% YoY). Cost/ASKM (ex-fuel) fell 8.9% YoY due to higher aircraft utilisation and improved employee productivity. PAT, at INR4.4bn, tumbled 25% YoY as EBITDAR margin plummeted ~940bps YoY to 27.5%. Inks term sheet for 50 ATR aircraft The company has inked a term sheet for 50 ATR aircraft, with the option to reduce the number based on certain conditions (changed its single type aircraft strategy for the first time). These smaller aircraft will be ideal for serving less popular routes and take advantage of the UDAN scheme. Once the purchase agreement is final, IndiGo is planning to launch its turbo prop operations by CY17 end. This fleet will be operated separately from its current A320 fleet to avoid complexity of operation of different aircrafts, while still capturing synergy in admin expenses. EDELWEISS 4D RATINGS Absolute Rating Rating Relative to Sector Risk Rating Relative to Sector Sector Relative to Market MARKET DATA (R:, B: INDIGO IN) HOLD Outperform High None CMP : INR 1,093 Target Price : INR 1, week range (INR) : 1,170 / 790 Share in issue (mn) : M cap (INR bn/usd mn) : 395 / 6,135 Avg. Daily Vol.BSE/NSE( 000) : SHARE HOLDING PATTERN (%) Current Q2FY17 Q1FY17 Promoters * MF's, FI's & BK s FII's Others * Promoters pledged shares (% of share in issue) : NIL PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) Stock Nifty 1 month months months BSE Midcap Index Outlook and valuations: Yield stability awaited; maintain HOLD We marginally raise FY18/19E earnings by 11%/14% on expectations of lower ATF prices driven by currency benefits and correction in oil prices. However, healthy volume surge has been clouded by fall in passenger yields. Although pressure on yields has moderated in Q4FY17, increasing industry capacity remains a concern. We value IndiGo at 8.0x FY19E EBITDAR, yielding target price of INR1052. We maintain HOLD. Financials (INR mn) Year to March Q4FY17 Q4FY16 YoY (%) Q3FY17 QoQ (%) FY17 FY18E FY19E Revenue 48,482 40, ,865 (2.8) 185, , ,704 EBITDAR 13,322 15,085 (11.7) 14,408 (7.5) 53,113 67,474 86,590 Adj. PAT 4,403 5,832 (24.5) 4,873 (9.6) 17,019 20,154 28,518 Dil. EPS (INR) (24.7) 13.5 (9.6) Dil. P/E (x) EV/EBITDAR (x) Edelweiss Research is also available on Bloomberg EDEL <GO>, Thomson First Call, Reuters and Factset. Rohan Gupta rohan.gupta@edelweissfin.com Nihal Mahesh Jham nihal.jham@edelweissfin.com May 11, 2017 Edelweiss Securities Limited

2 Aviation Table 1: SOTP valuation Comments FY19 value Multiple (X) Total Value Per Share EBITDAR 86, ,717 1,922 Net debt (8,937) (25) Operating lease rent Capitalized at 7x 45, , Equity value (INR mn) 380,196 1,052 Source: Edelweiss research 2 Edelweiss Securities Limited

3 InterGlobe Aviation (IndiGo) Financial snapshot (INR mn) Year to March Q4FY17 Q4FY16 % change Q3FY17 % change FY17 FY18E FY19E Total operating Income 48,482 40, ,865 (2.8) 185, , ,704 Aircraft Fuel Expenses 17,734 10, , ,651 78,570 82,564 Employee expenses 5,339 4, , ,482 23,554 27,323 Selling and Dist. Exp. 3,135 2, ,252 (3.6) Other expenses 8,952 7, ,890 (9.5) 35,588 44,855 52,470 EBITDAR 13,322 15,085 (11.7) 14,408 (7.5) 53,113 67,474 86,590 Aircraft Lease Rentals 8,242 6,789 8,164 31,254 38,721 45,922 Depreciation 1,052 1,249 (15.8) 1,184 (11.2) 4,573 4,606 4,926 EBIT 4,028 7,047 (42.8) 5,061 (20.4) 17,287 24,148 35,742 Other income 2,938 1, , ,891 5,955 5,887 Interest ,308 2,111 2,021 Add: Exceptional items Profit before tax 6,189 8,177 (24.3) 6, ,870 27,992 39,608 Total Tax 1,786 2,345 (23.8) 1, ,852 7,838 11,090 Reported net profit 4,403 5,832 (24.5) 4,873 (9.6) 17,019 20,154 28,518 Adjusted Profit 4,403 5,832 (24.5) 4,873 (9.6) 17,019 20,154 28,518 No. of shares (mn) Adjusted Diluted EPS (24.7) 13.5 (9.6) Diluted P/E (x) As % of net revenues Aircraft fuel expenses Employee cost Selling and Dist. Exp Other operating expenses EBITDAR Depreciation Aircraft lease rentals Interest expenditure Reported net profit Change in Estimates FY18E FY19E New Old % change New Old % change Comments Net Revenue 229, ,276 (1.8) 266, ,203 (1.3) EBITDAR 67,474 67, ,590 85, Due to lower expectations of ATF EBITDAR (Common Metrics) Adjusted After Tax margins Size Profit ,154 18, ,518 24, Net Profit Margin Capex 4,000 4, ,000 4, prices led by currency benefits and correction in oil prices. 3 Edelweiss Securities Limited

4 Aviation Company Description IndiGo, operated by Interglobe Aviation Limited, having commenced operations in August 2006 with a single aircraft has grown its fleet over the years and is now leader in the domestic airline industry with 35.6% market share (December 2015). The airline, with a modest beginning, has significantly outpaced market and its peers since 2008 having clocked 29.5% CAGR in passenger growth versus industry CAGR of 6.7% and has been the only profitable airline in India for the past seven years. Investment Theme Indian domestic aviation market has been clocking healthy growth rates driven by the changing socio-economic profile of the Indian consumers with increasing income levels amidst low level of air travel penetration in India. We expect robust growth to continue owing to competitive pricing of air travel vs the substitutes, growth in tourism and leisure travel and the need for air travel driven by geographical distribution of the Indian working population. With a uniform AirBus A320 fleet having average age of 3.2 years (100 numbers, as of December, 2015), IndiGo has reaped multiple benefits. IndiGo has been taking big bets of placing bulk purchase orders for aircraft/engines helping it negotiate favourable terms with the OEMs. The airline flies limited point-to-point destinations selected based on attractiveness of market. All this has helped company have the lowest cost structure in the highly competitive industry. The company has been delivering best in class performance thereby gaining market share. Despite being largely domestic focused IndiGo has aircraft utilization levels being the best in the industry at 11.6 Hrs/aircraft/day consistently. Further, its comfortable liquidity position and healthy B/S enables IndiGo to take delivery of aircrafts and grow in a competitive scenario. Key Risks Sharp uptick in ATF prices (accounted for 50% of revenues in past) and INR depreciation (bulk of cost is USD denominated) will impact profitability given high price sensitivity of the Indian consumer leaving limited ability to pass on costs. Uncertainty and unpredictability of the policy/ regulatory framework continues to be a concern. Adverse taxation structure will drive up cost of doing business hurting profitability Economic slowdown putting pressure on demand for corporate / leisure travel will impact load factors and hence profitability given the high operating leverage structure of the airline business. Existing airports at the Indian metros like Mumbai, Chennai and Kolkata running at peak capacity could prove to be bottlenecks for growth. 4 Edelweiss Securities Limited

5 InterGlobe Aviation (IndiGo) Financial Statements Key Assumptions Macro GDP(Y-o-Y %) Inflation (Avg) Repo rate (exit rate) USD/INR (Avg) Sector Domestic pax growth(%) Domestic ASKM growth(%) Domestic oil price(inr/ltr) Company Average fleet size(no) Avg. flying hours (Hrs) Employee Exp. Growth(%) S&D Exp/pax (INR) Airport chg/dep (INR) 59,647 62,912 63,000 64,500 Maint. Cost/B Hr (USD) Lease rent/aircrart (USDmn) Pax growth (%) Pax yield/rpkm Cargo rev as % of pax Tax rate (%) Income statement (INR mn) Net revenue 161, , , ,704 Aircraft fuel expenses 48,930 64,651 78,570 82,564 Employees Costs 17,880 20,482 23,554 27,323 Selling and Dist. Exp. 9,366 11,971 14,644 17,757 Operating expenses 28,976 35,588 44,855 52,470 Total operating expenses 105, , , ,114 EBITDAR 56,247 53,113 67,474 86,590 Aircraft Lease Rentals 25,068 31,254 38,721 45,922 Depreciation 5,055 4,573 4,606 4,926 EBIT 26,125 17,287 24,148 35,742 Add: Other income 5, , , , Less: Interest Expense 3,041 3,308 2,111 2,021 Profit Before Tax 28,235 21,870 27,992 39,608 Less: Provision for Tax 8,373 4,852 7,838 11,090 Reported Profit 19,862 17,019 20,154 28,518 Adjusted Profit 19,862 17,019 20,154 28,518 Shares o /s (mn) Diluted shares o/s (mn) Adj. Diluted EPS (INR) Adjusted Cash EPS Dividend per share (DPS) Common size metrics Aircraft fuel expenses Non-fuel expenses EBITDAR margins EBIT margins Net Profit margins Growth ratios (%) Revenues EBITDAR Growth 47 (6) Adjusted Profit 52.3 (14.3) EPS 45.3 (14.6) Edelweiss Securities Limited

6 Aviation Balance sheet (INR mn) As on 31st March FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E Share capital 3,604 3,615 3,615 3,615 Reserves & Surplus 23,628 34,177 37,351 38,769 Shareholders' funds 27,232 37,792 40,966 42,383 Long term borrowings 30,071 23,957 22,957 22,707 Total Borrowings 30,071 23,957 22,957 22,707 Sources of funds 57,303 61,749 63,923 65,091 Tangible assets 47,274 37,475 36,869 36,668 Intangible Assets CWIP (incl. intangible) Total net fixed assets 47,794 38,190 37,585 37,383 Non current investments Current Investments 9,861 37,134 37,134 37,134 Cash and Equivalents 37,187 46,325 31,894 36,476 Inventories 763 1,632 2,160 2,598 Sundry Debtors 1,571 1,587 1,851 2,226 Loans & Advances 7,398 9,581 9,581 9,581 Other Current Assets 21,613 17,648 17,648 17,648 Current Assets (ex cash) 31,345 30,448 31,240 32,053 Trade payable 7,412 7,746 9,069 9,660 Other Current Liab 61,472 82,602 64,861 68,296 Total Current Liab 68,884 90,348 73,930 77,957 Net Curr Assets-ex cash (37,539) (59,901) (42,690) (45,904) Uses of funds 57,303 61,749 63,923 65,091 BVPS (INR) Free cash flow (INR mn) Reported Profit 19,862 17,019 20,154 28,518 Add: Depreciation 25,068 31,254 38,721 45,922 Deferred tax 1,070 (60) - - Others (13,793) (31,282) (37,959) (50,916) Gross cash flow 32,206 16,930 20,916 23,524 Less: Changes in WC 1,215 (6,074) 17,211 (2,937) Operating cash flow 30,991 23,004 3,705 26,461 Less: Capex 4,083 (4,512) 4,000 4,000 Free Cash Flow 26,907 27,516 (295) 22,461 Cash flow metrics Operating cash flow 30,991 23,004 3,705 26,461 Investing cash flow (13,262) 19,868 1,955 1,598 Financing cash flow (12,200) (23,724) (20,092) (21,916) Net cash Flow 5,529 19,148 (14,431) 6,142 Capex (4,083) 4,512 (4,000) (4,000) Dividend paid (18,540) (14,886) (16,980) (18,828) Profitability and efficiency ratios ROAE (%) ROACE (%) Inventory Days Debtors Days Payable Days Cash Conversion Cycle (8) (9) (8) (7) Net Debt/Equity (0.6) (1.6) (1.1) (1.2) Operating ratios Total Asset Turnover Fixed Asset Turnover Equity Turnover Valuation parameters Adj. Diluted EPS (INR) Y-o-Y growth (%) 45.3 (14.6) Adjusted Cash EPS (INR) Diluted P/E (x) P/B (x) EV / Sales (x) EV/EBIDTAR Dividend Yield (%) Peer comparison valuation Market cap Diluted P/E (X) EV/EBIDTAR ROAE (%) Name (USD mn) FY18E FY19E FY18E FY19E FY18E FY19E InterGlobe Aviation (IndiGo) 6, Jet Airways (India) (11.1) (23.3) SpiceJet 1, Median AVERAGE Source: Edelweiss research 6 Edelweiss Securities Limited

7 Additional Data InterGlobe Aviation (IndiGo) Directors Data Mr. Devadas Mallya Chairman and Nonexecutive Independent Director Mr. Rahul Bhatia Non-executive Director Mr. Rakesh Gangwal Non-executive Director Dr. Anupam Khanna Non-executive Independent Director Ms. Rohini Bhatia Non-executive Director Mr. Aditya Ghosh President and Whole-time Director Auditors - B S R & Co. LLP, Chartered Accountants *as per last annual report Holding Top10 Perc. Holding Perc. Holding Interglobe enterpris Gangwal rakesh Chinkerpoo family tr 15.6 Gangwal shobha 9.64 Mohamed riyaz haider 1.41 Icici prudential ass 1.04 Ige mauritius pvt lt 0.9 Jupiter inv mgmt gro 0.76 Pictet funds 0.74 Motilal oswal asset 0.72 *in last one year Bulk Deals Data Acquired / Seller B/S Qty Traded Price No Data Available *in last one year Insider Trades Reporting Data Acquired / Seller B/S Qty Traded 30 Mar 2017 Suman Chopra Sell Mar 2017 Sanjay Kumar Sell Mar 2017 Sanjay Kumar Sell Dec 2016 Sanjay Kumar Sell Dec 2016 VINEET MITTAL Sell *in last one year 7 Edelweiss Securities Limited

8 RATING & INTERPRETATION Company Absolute reco Relative reco Relative risk Company Absolute reco Relative reco Relative Risk InterGlobe Aviation (IndiGo) HOLD SO H Jet Airways (India) BUY None None SpiceJet BUY SO L ABSOLUTE RATING Ratings Expected absolute returns over 12 months Buy More than 15% Hold Between 15% and - 5% Reduce Less than -5% RELATIVE RETURNS RATING Ratings Sector Outperformer (SO) Sector Performer (SP) Criteria Stock return > 1.25 x Sector return Stock return > 0.75 x Sector return Stock return < 1.25 x Sector return Sector Underperformer (SU) Stock return < 0.75 x Sector return Sector return is market cap weighted average return for the coverage universe within the sector RELATIVE RISK RATING Ratings Low (L) Medium (M) High (H) Criteria Bottom 1/3rd percentile in the sector Middle 1/3rd percentile in the sector Top 1/3rd percentile in the sector Risk ratings are based on Edelweiss risk model SECTOR RATING Ratings Overweight (OW) Equalweight (EW) Criteria Sector return > 1.25 x Nifty return Sector return > 0.75 x Nifty return Sector return < 1.25 x Nifty return Underweight (UW) Sector return < 0.75 x Nifty return 8 Edelweiss Securities Limited

9 InterGlobe Aviation (IndiGo) Edelweiss Securities Limited, Edelweiss House, off C.S.T. Road, Kalina, Mumbai Board: (91-22) , Aditya Narain Head of Research Coverage group(s) of stocks by primary analyst(s): Aviation InterGlobe Aviation (IndiGo), Jet Airways (India), SpiceJet Recent Research Date Company Title Price (INR) Recos 28-Feb-17 Jet Airways Fuel cost mars show; Result Update 22-Feb-17 Spice Jet High competitive intensity takes a toll; Result Update 446 Buy 73 Buy 22-Feb-17 Interglobe Aviation (Indigo) Yield pressure continues ; Result Update 845 Hold Distribution of Ratings / Market Cap Edelweiss Research Coverage Universe Buy Hold Reduce Total Rating Interpretation Rating Expected to Rating Distribution* * 1stocks under review > 50bn Between 10bn and 50 bn < 10bn Market Cap (INR) Buy Hold Reduce appreciate more than 15% over a 12-month period appreciate up to 15% over a 12-month period depreciate more than 5% over a 12-month period One year price chart 1,250 1,150 (INR) 1, May-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Interglobe Aviation 9 Edelweiss Securities Limited

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