OBEROI REALTY Value accretive Thane land buy; scope for further NAV growth

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1 COMPANY UPDATE OBEROI REALTY Value accretive Thane land buy; scope for further NAV growth India Equity Research Real Estate Oberoi Realty has won the bid to acquire GSK Pharma s 60acre land parcel in Thane for INR5.55bn. We believe the acquisition is value accretive for Oberoi with estimated development potential of ~9.2msf and NAV addition of INR53/share. Its b/s allows further NAV growth through new land acquisition using leverage. We revise our FY18 NAV estimate to INR552/share driven by Thane land contribution and lowering of discount rate (12% v/s 14% earlier). We apply lower NAV discount (5% v/s 10% earlier), in view of compression in sector discount, to arrive at our revised TP of INR524. Maintain BUY. Oberoi to acquire GSK s Thane land Board of GSK Pharma has approved sale of its land measuring ~60acres to Oberoi Realty for consideration of INR5.55bn. The land is located on Pokhran Road in Thane a prominent suburb bordering north-east of Greater Mumbai and forms part of the wider Mumbai Metropolitan Region. Thane residential market has seen significant growth over last decade in view of poor affordability in Greater Mumbai and proximity to IT office corridor of Navi Mumbai. Given the land is currently under industrial use, Oberoi will need to spend towards approval for conversion to non-industrial use. The deal is subject to necessary approvals. Thane Land - Project Economics Oberoi is yet to finalise development plans for the Thane land. Based on our interaction with Oberoi management, assuming full residential development, we estimate potential saleable area of ~9.2msf of which ~20-25% could be affordable housing (sub 60sq.mt. carpet area units) to avail 100% tax exemption under section 80IB. Assuming INR4bn towards conversion/approval charges, starting ASP of INR11kpsf, project cost (ex-land) of INR4.5kpsf, 5% YoY price/cost inflation and 12 years of development period, we estimate project NAV of INR18bn (INR53/share). We expect Oberoi to fund the purchase using debt. Outlook and Valuations: NAV growth story; maintain BUY Oberoi s low gearing provides room to leverage its b/s and allows it to capitalise on attractive land purchase opportunities and grow its NAV. Plans for Thane land, new launches in Goregaon and sales pick-up in ongoing projects are key stock catalyst. We revise our FY18 NAV estimate to INR552/share to incorporate Thane land value and lower discount rate and apply 5% discount to it to arrive at our revised TP of INR524. Valuations appear attractive - currently trading at 24% discount to our NAV. Maintain BUY/SP. Financials (INR mn) Revenues 14,081 11,137 31,451 31,253 EBITDA 6,675 5,701 13,253 14,180 Net profit 4,259 3,788 8,555 9,239 EPS (INR) P/E (x) ROE (%) Edelweiss Research is also available on Bloomberg EDEL <GO>, Thomson First Call, Reuters and Factset. EDELWEISS 4D RATINGS Absolute Rating Rating Relative to Sector Risk Rating Relative to Sector Sector Relative to Market BUY Edelweiss Securities Limited Performer Low None MARKET DATA (R: OEBO.BO, B: OBER IN) CMP : INR 420 Target Price : INR week range (INR) : 440 / 248 Share in issue (mn) : M cap (INR bn/usd mn) : 143 / 2,189 Avg. Daily Vol.BSE/NSE( 000) : SHARE HOLDING PATTERN (%) Current Q4FY17 Q3FY17 Promoters * MF's, FI's & BK s FII's Others * Promoters pledged shares (% of share in issue) : NIL PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) Stock Nifty EW Real Estate Index 1 month (2.0) 3 months months Harshal Pandya harshal.pandya@edelweissfin.com September 26, 2017

2 Real Estate Model Update We have updated our model to account for: 1) Thane land acquisition: We have included NAV of Oberoi s recently announced Thane land acquisition. Oberoi is yet to finalise development plans for this land. Based on our interaction with Oberoi management, assuming full residential development, we estimate potential saleable area of ~9.2msf. Management has indicated that it may look to use part of the saleable area (~20-25%) for developing affordable homes (sub 60sq.mt. carpet area units) to avail 100% tax exemption under section 80IB. Given the land is currently marked for industrial use, Oberoi will need to incur charges for converting to non-industrial usage. Assuming INR4bn towards conversion/approval charges, starting ASP of INR11kpsf, project cost (ex-land) of INR4.5kpsf, 5% YoY price/cost inflation and 12 years of development period, we estimate project NAV of INR17.9bn (INR53/share). We expect Oberoi to fund the acquisition using debt. 2) We have reduced discount rate to 12% from 14% earlier to account for changes in our assumptions for risk free rate (6.5% vs 7% earlier) and equity risk premium (5% versus 7% earlier) 3) We have reduced discount to NAV to 5% from 10% earlier in view of compression in sector discount to NAV over last few months. Consequently, our new NAV is INR552/share (earlier INR478) to which we apply 5% discount (earlier 10%) to arrive at our new target price of INR524/share. We maintain our BUY/SP recommendation/rating. Table 1: Thane Land NAV Calculations Land Area (acres) 60 Land cost (INR mn) 5,550 Estimated conversion/approval cost (INR mn) 4,000 Estimated saleable area (msf) 9.2 Starting average selling price (INRpsf) 11,000 Starting project cost (ex-land & approvals) (INRpsf) 4,500 Project completion period (years) 12 YoY price & cost inflation (%) 5 NAV (INR mn) 17,869 NAV per share (INR) 53 Earnings No impact Source: Company, Edelweiss research We expect Thane land development to commence only post FY18. Given POCM based revenue recognition rules (25% project completion and 25% project sales before commencement of revenue recognition), we do not expect any impact of Thane land acquisition on our earnings estimate for FY18 & FY19. Hence our FY18 and FY19 earnings estimates remain unchanged. 2 Edelweiss Securities Limited

3 Valuations Oberoi Realty We have a BUY/SP recommendation/rating on OBER with a target price of INR524, which we have arrived at by applying 5% discount to our FY18 NAV estimate of INR552. We have valued OBER s real estate operations by summing up present values of: 1) ongoing & planned projects; and 2) completed retail, commercial and hospitality assets. Additionally, we have factored in upsides from new projects (cash / incremental FSI in Worli project). Our NAV calculation assumes 26% tax rate, 2% (of sales) overheads for real estate operations, 12% discount rate and 9% cap rate for commercial and retail investment projects. We argue for 5% discount to NAV valuation for OBER based on: 1. Relatively quick NAV liquidation (versus other prominent developers) 80% NAV realisation in next 6 years giving re-investment visibility in medium term. 2. Low gearing lends OBER capital flexibility to increase leverage to buy more land and grow its NAV faster. 3. Quality pedigree should allow the company to win asset-light and value accretive JDA projects. 4. Premium brand in the lucrative Mumbai market. 5. Prospects of demand improvement in Mumbai residential market. Potential pressures 6. Exposed to single market (Mumbai) risk. 7. Execution challenge owing to fluid regulatory environment. Table 2: Net Asset Value (NAV) and target price calculations (INR mn) Project NAV for Saleable Properties 113,131 Project NAV for Leasable Properties 44,297 NAV for Hotels 6,604 B/S Adjustments (8,382) New Project Upside 15,921 Additional charge for regulatory changes 1,000 Net Asset Value (NAV) 187,335 NAV Per Share (INR) 552 NAV Discount (%) 5.0 Target Price (INR/share) 524 Source: Company, Edelweiss research 3 Edelweiss Securities Limited

4 Real Estate Company Description Oberoi Realty (OBER), incorporated in 1988 as Kingston Properties, is a Mumbai-based real estate developer, focused on development of premium residential spaces, commercial space, retail, hospitality and social infrastructure. More than 90% of its land bank is in Mumbai while balance is in Pune. Most of OBER s current land bank has been purchased on outright basis in key micro-markets of Mumbai. Investment Theme 1. Steady scale-up in operations in quarters ahead, driven by recently launched residential projects and planned new launches. 2. Expected pickup in leasing at Commerz II Ph1, driven by improvement in office space demand following better economic growth outlook 3. Well-located land parcels in premium Mumbai market and preparedness to monetise it 4. Strong brand name and history of delivering quality projects in Mumbai 5. Has a strong balance sheet versus peers, which could be further leveraged to add valueaccretive projects Key Risks 1. Delay in launch of planned projects Exquisite Ph3, Maxima and future Sky City projects. 2. Delay in commencement of Thane project. 3. Slowdown in Mumbai market. 4. Sangam city land usage issue (i.e., conversion of agricultural land for non-agricultural use). 5. Regulatory risks. 4 Edelweiss Securities Limited

5 Oberoi Realty Financial Statements Key Assumptions Macro GDP(Y-o-Y %) Inflation (Avg) Repo rate (exit rate) USD/INR (Avg) Company Selling Price increase (%) Construction Cost Increase (%) Income statement (INR mn) Income from operations 14,081 11,137 31,451 31,253 Direct costs 6,297 4,372 16,912 15,665 Employee costs Other Expenses Total operating expenses 7,406 5,437 18,198 17,073 EBITDA 6,675 5,701 13,253 14,180 Depreciation EBIT 6,185 5,206 12,692 13,601 Add: Other income Less: Interest Expense Profit Before Tax 6,545 5,623 13,162 14,214 Less: Provision for Tax 2,286 1,869 4,607 4,975 Associate profit share Reported Profit 4,259 3,788 8,555 9,239 Adjusted Profit 4,259 3,788 8,555 9,239 Shares o /s (mn) Adjusted Basic EPS Diluted shares o/s (mn) Adjusted Diluted EPS Adjusted Cash EPS Dividend per share (DPS) Dividend Payout Ratio(%) Common size metrics Operating expenses Staff costs S G & A expenses Depreciation Interest Expense EBITDA margins Net Profit margins Growth ratios (%) Revenues 52.6 (20.9) (0.6) EBITDA 29.9 (14.6) PBT 33.8 (14.1) Adjusted Profit 34.3 (11.1) EPS 29.9 (11.1) Edelweiss Securities Limited

6 Real Estate Balance sheet (INR mn) As on 31st March FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E Share capital 3,393 3,395 3,395 3,395 Reserves & Surplus 49,650 53,864 61,607 70,005 Shareholders' funds 53,043 57,260 65,002 73,400 Long term borrowings 5,348 8,276 5,000 1,000 Def. Tax Liability (net) Sources of funds 58,619 65,536 70,002 74,401 Gross Block 11,855 11,177 11,217 11,367 Net Block 9,771 9,449 9,483 9,610 Capital work in progress 539 1,095 1,227 3,425 Total Fixed Assets 10,311 12,973 12,711 13,035 Goodwill on consolidation 2, Cash and Equivalents 3,952 5,742 13,382 14,555 Inventories 39,306 37,664 35,216 36,256 Trade receivables 1,170 1,058 1,800 1,650 Loans & Advances 19,937 17,355 17,934 18,675 Other Current Assets 267 9,750 9,750 9,750 Total current assets 60,681 65,826 64,701 66,331 Current liabilities 18,935 18,969 20,742 19,451 Provisions Total Current Liab 18,979 19,006 20,792 19,521 Net Curr Assets-ex cash 41,702 46,821 43,909 46,810 Uses of funds 58,619 65,536 70,002 74,401 BVPS (INR) Free cash flow (INR mn) Reported Profit 4,259 3,788 8,555 9,239 Add: Depreciation Interest (Net of Tax) Less: Changes in WC 2,991 5,118 (2,911) 2,901 Operating cash flow 1,742 (1,914) 11,473 6,361 Less: Capex 112 (677) Free Cash Flow 1,647 (121) 12,020 6,797 Cash flow metrics Investing cash flow 433 (347) (256) 347 Financing cash flow 2, (813) (841) Net cash Flow 3,750 (1,138) 10,916 5,173 Capex 112 (677) Dividend paid Share issue/(buyback) 3,258 1, Profitability and efficiency ratios EOP(ROE) (%) ROAE (%) ROACE (%) Current Ratio Gross Debt/EBITDA Gross Debt/Equity Net Debt/Equity (12.9) (18.5) Operating ratios Total Asset Turnover Fixed Asset Turnover Equity Turnover Valuation parameters Adj. Diluted EPS (INR) Y-o-Y growth (%) 29.9 (11.1) Adjusted Cash EPS (INR) Diluted P/E (x) P/B (x) Dividend Yield (%) Peer comparison valuation Market cap Diluted P/E (X) P/B (X) ROAE (%) Name (USD mn) FY18E FY19E FY18E FY19E FY18E FY19E Oberoi Realty 2, Brigade Enterprises DLF 4, Godrej Properties 1, Sobha Limited Sunteck Realty Limited Median AVERAGE Source: Edelweiss research 6 Edelweiss Securities Limited

7 Additional Data Oberoi Realty Directors Data Vikas Oberoi Chairman & Managing Director Anil Harish Independent, Non Executive Director Bindu Oberoi Non Independent, Non Executive Director Tilokchand P. Ostwal Independent, Non Executive Director Venkatesh Mysore Independent, Non Executive Director Karamjit Singh Kalsi Independent, Non-Executive Director Saumil Daru Non-Independent, Executive Director Auditors - P. RAJ & CO. *as per last annual report Holding Top10 Perc. Holding Perc. Holding Oberoi vikas R s estate developer 9.81 Temasek holdings pri 3.66 Franklin resources 3.24 Blackrock 1.79 Stichting dep apg em 1.66 Blackrock glo asian 1.45 Wellington managemen 1.34 Massachusetts mutual 1.22 Fil limited 0.89 *in last one year Bulk Deals Data Acquired / Seller B/S Qty Traded Price No Data Available *in last one year Insider Trades Reporting Data Acquired / Seller B/S Qty Traded 23 Feb 2017 Rajendra Chandorkar Sell *in last one year 7 Edelweiss Securities Limited

8 RATING & INTERPRETATION Company Absolute reco Relative reco Relative risk Company Absolute reco Relative reco Relative Risk Brigade Enterprises BUY SO M DLF HOLD SU H Godrej Properties HOLD SP L Oberoi Realty BUY SP L Sobha Limited BUY SO M Sunteck Realty Limited BUY SO H ABSOLUTE RATING Ratings Expected absolute returns over 12 months Buy More than 15% Hold Between 15% and - 5% Reduce Less than -5% RELATIVE RETURNS RATING Ratings Sector Outperformer (SO) Sector Performer (SP) Criteria Stock return > 1.25 x Sector return Stock return > 0.75 x Sector return Stock return < 1.25 x Sector return Sector Underperformer (SU) Stock return < 0.75 x Sector return Sector return is market cap weighted average return for the coverage universe within the sector RELATIVE RISK RATING Ratings Low (L) Medium (M) High (H) Criteria Bottom 1/3rd percentile in the sector Middle 1/3rd percentile in the sector Top 1/3rd percentile in the sector Risk ratings are based on Edelweiss risk model SECTOR RATING Ratings Overweight (OW) Equalweight (EW) Criteria Sector return > 1.25 x Nifty return Sector return > 0.75 x Nifty return Sector return < 1.25 x Nifty return Underweight (UW) Sector return < 0.75 x Nifty return 8 Edelweiss Securities Limited

9 Oberoi Realty Edelweiss Securities Limited, Edelweiss House, off C.S.T. Road, Kalina, Mumbai Board: (91-22) , Aditya Narain Head of Research Coverage group(s) of stocks by primary analyst(s): Real Estate Brigade Enterprises, DLF, Godrej Properties, Oberoi Realty, Sobha Limited, Sunteck Realty Limited Recent Research Date Company Title Price (INR) Recos 28-Aug-17 DLF Promoter CCPS deal sealed; Company Update 14-Aug-17 DLF Q1FY18 miss; operational challenges persist; Result Update 180 Hold 156 Hold 11-Aug-17 Sunteck Realty Q1FY18 in-line; growth drivers intact; Result Update 248 Buy Distribution of Ratings / Market Cap Edelweiss Research Coverage Universe Buy Hold Reduce Total Rating Interpretation Rating Expected to Rating Distribution* * 1stocks under review > 50bn Between 10bn and 50 bn < 10bn Market Cap (INR) Buy Hold Reduce appreciate more than 15% over a 12-month period appreciate up to 15% over a 12-month period depreciate more than 5% over a 12-month period One year price chart (INR) Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oberoi Realty 9 Edelweiss Securities Limited

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