SAPHEDRA project. Building a European Platform for evaluation of consequence models

Transcription

1 SAPHEDRA prject Building a Eurpean Platfrm fr evaluatin f cnsequence mdels

2 Main Issues SAPHEDRA Aim f the prject Partners and structur f the prject Shrt descriptin f wrk packages and available results Next steps befre the end f the prject Prject fllw up?

3 Aim f the prject The impact distance and mre in general the cnsequence assessment expressed as physical effects are ne f the mst imprtant parameters t assess is the impact distance The selectin f the mre apprpriate mdel fr cnsequence assessment is thus a critical pint, in particular when new technlgies and emerging risks are cnsidered.

4 Aim f the prject Establish an pen and transparent prtcl fr the assessment f cnsequence analysis mdels Build the framewrk t cmmunicate mdel assessment results penly and transparently t all stakehlders btaining a standardized template. Openly and transparently cmmunicate strategies t select an apprpriate mdel when different mdels are available. Prvide infrmatin n hw t get access t relevant mdels and tls available n a web platfrm accessible t all stakehlders including the public.

5 Partners and structure f the prject April 2015 WP7 : Prject crdinatin ( INERIS ) WP1 Identificatin f the existing tls fr the hazardus phenmena ( TNO ) WP2 Gap analysis f existing mdeling tls in emerging risks management ( UniB ) WP3 Review and analysis f previus mdel evaluatin prtcls ( HSL ) WP4 List f experimental campaigns available t be used t evaluate mdeling tls ( BAM ) December 2015 May2016 ; 1st versin WP5 Define a cmplete, new and rbust prcedure t evaluate tls ( INERIS ) Octber 2016, final versin WP6 Applicatin t a case related with emerging risks ( DEMOKRITOS )

6 WP1: Hazardus phenmena WP leader: TNO COMPLETED Aim: identificatin f existing tls fr cnsequence mdelling A classificatin based n hazardus phenmena is prpsed: Results: Fire Explsins Txic dispersin the deliverable cntains a descriptin f typical phenmena, assciated with the release f hazardus materials classificatin is then applied t cllect and describe varius tls in the frm f a spreadsheet summarizing main features f the tls Deliverable available n Saf ra website: «Descriptin f hazardus phenmena and identificatin f main mdels»

7 WP2: Gap analysis - WP leader: UniBO COMPLETED Aims: Identificatin f a selected shrtlist f emerging risk issues with specific reference t the cntext f EU Member States Gap Analysis in rder t identify the ptential deficiencies in the current cnsequence mdeling methds. Scpe f the activity is restricted nly t thse emerging risks that require a step f cnsequence assessment mdelling in their analysis and management Only prcesses and technlgies where the release f hazardus material and/r the release f energy due t the presence f hazardus materials is pssible were cnsidered. The shrtlist includes: LNG, Bigas prductin, Carbn capture and strage, and Hydrgen Deliverable available n Saf ra website: «Gap analysis f emerging risks issues»

8 WP3: review f existing prcedures - WP leader: HSL COMPLETED Aims: Review f existing mdel evaluatin prtcls Draft the framewrk fr a new evaluatin prtcl Mdel evaluatin prtcl prpsed shuld fllw an established structure f: Scientific assessment User-riented assessment Verificatin Validatin Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis Deliverable available n Saf ra website: «Review f existing mdel evalutatin prcedures and prtcls»

9 WP4: Experimental campaigns - WP leader: BAM COMPLETED Aims: Identificatin f existing experimental campaigns fr the validatin f the mdels and tls fr cnsequence assessment identified in WP1 Descriptin f the identified experimental campaigns based n classificatin f mdels intrduced in WP1 The results f the analysis f relevant experimental campaigns is summarised in frm f a spreadsheet included in the prject deliverable Deliverable available n Saf ra website: «List f experimental campaigns and infrmatin available t be used t evaluate existing tls r new tls»

10 WP5 : new prcedure - WP leader : INERIS IN PROGRESS Aims: T develp a new assessment prcedure f mdeling tls that culd be used bth in the case f emerging risks and fr mre traditinal risks T prpse a prtcl t be able t cmpare the perfrmance f the mdels and tls fr emerging risks and traditinal risks Based n the results f the previus WPs, a new prcedure t evaluate mdels and tls will be prpsed The results f the WP3 will be used t define a cmplete and new prcedure The prcedure will include verificatin based n experimental large-scale campaigns carried ut in the past (WP 4) A lng-lasting prcedure is aimed, thus rbustness will be a requirement Deliverable : 1st versin in June 2016, final versin in Octber 2016

11 WP6: test f the prcedure - WP leader: Demkrits NEXT STEP Aims: Implementatin f the new prtcl (WP5) in a case study cncerning an emerging risk issue identified in WP2 Assessment f mdels perfrmance The assessment will be perfrmed selecting several accidental scenaris and assessing cnsequences with a range f mdels The utputs f the physical mdels used fr the cnsequence assessment f the case study will be cmpared t experimental data when available. Evaluatin criteria will be identified by the partners in rder t cmpare the mdels used Cmparisn will cncern, amng thers, input requirements, mdel parameters and time required fr executing relevant cmputer cdes. Deliverable: planned in September 2016

12 Explitatin and cnslidatin f the results... Creatin f a new cnsrtium extended t : End users, Stakehlders, Scientists... Three different appraches t carry ut the assessment f tls: 1. Self assessment 2. Review f self assessment by the cnsrtium 3. Assessment by the cnsrtium All infrmatin will be available n a website Further results will be presented at Lss Preventin sympsium in June