CIVITAS INSTITUTE NORTH CAROLINA STATEWIDE STUDY / MAY 21-23, 2016

Transcription

1 BANNER 1 KEY REGIONS GENDER AGE GENDER/AGE PARTY REG =================================== =========== ============================= =================================== ================= NORTH PIED- TRI- SOUTH -EAST MONT CHAR- WSTRN MEN MEN MEN WOMEN WOMEN WOMEN TOTAL ANGLE -EAST NC TRIAD LOTTE NC MEN WOMEN GOP DEM IND (A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N) (O) (P) (Q) (R) (S) (T) (U) (V) (W) BASE=TOTAL SAMPLE % 22% 15% 12% 18% 20% 14% 48% 52% 5% 12% 25% 23% 29% 10% 20% 15% 11% 22% 16% 33% 42% 25% **D/S (TRUMP - CLINTON) % -9% 11% 12% -12% 9% 19% 19% -11% -13% - -6% 3% 22% 19% 13% 32% -31% -11% 9% 63% -44% 4% BE BE BE BEf I L jkl JKLM RS RS oprst R RS VW V TOTAL TRUMP % 34% 46% 42% 31% 45% 42% 46% 33% 23% 33% 33% 42% 52% 36% 45% 57% 19% 33% 47% 72% 17% 34% be be I j JKLm R Rs OpRS R RS VW V TOTAL CLINTON % 43% 35% 30% 43% 36% 23% 27% 44% 35% 32% 39% 39% 31% 18% 32% 25% 50% 45% 38% 8% 61% 30% dg g dg G H O OPQ OPQ Oq UW U TOTAL JOHNSON % 8% 4% 13% 6% 6% 12% 10% 5% 11% 16% 10% 6% 5% 21% 10% 4% 8% 4% 5% 5% 6% 15% C C I MN n pqrst qs UV TOTAL LEAN/UNDECIDED % 9% 16% 13% 17% 13% 16% 13% 15% 22% 14% 13% 13% 11% 17% 10% 11% 19% 15% 9% 12% 13% 16% b DEFINITELY TRUMP % 28% 34% 34% 19% 36% 35% 36% 25% 18% 24% 26% 33% 42% 26% 35% 46% 15% 26% 37% 55% 14% 26% E E E E I JKLm R OpRS r Rs VW V PROBABLY TRUMP % 6% 12% 7% 11% 9% 7% 10% 8% 4% 9% 7% 9% 10% 10% 10% 11% 3% 7% 9% 17% 3% 7% r r VW v PROBABLY CLINTON % 8% 6% 4% 6% 5% 6% 5% 7% 9% 6% 8% 3% 3% - 7% 4% 13% 5% 3% 2% 8% 8% mn O O OqT O o U U DEFINITELY CLINTON % 35% 29% 25% 37% 31% 17% 22% 37% 27% 26% 30% 35% 27% 18% 25% 21% 37% 40% 35% 7% 54% 22% G g G G H OQ OPQ OQ UW U DEFINITELY JOHNSON % 7% 2% 6% 2% 5% 7% 7% 3% 11% 7% 4% 4% 5% 14% 5% 4% 2% 2% 5% 4% 4% 8% ce I pqrs v PROBABLY JOHNSON % 1% 1% 7% 4% 1% 5% 3% 2% - 8% 6% 1% - 7% 5% - 6% 2% - 1% 2% 7% bcf bf bf JmN JMN qt QT qt qt Uv LEAN TRUMP % - 2% - 2% 3% 3% 1% 2% 5% 3% 2% 1% - 4% 1% - 5% 2% 1% 3% - 1% bd V LEAN CLINTON % 2% 2% 4% 3% 2% 3% 2% 3% - 1% 3% 3% 1% - 4% 2% 2% 3% 1% 2% 3% 1% J j O o w Significance Z-testing shown at 95% in UPPERCASE and 90% in lowercase in the groupings: B/C/D/E/F/G H/I J/K/L/M/N O/P/Q/R/S/T U/V/W

2 BANNER 1 KEY REGIONS GENDER AGE GENDER/AGE PARTY REG =================================== =========== ============================= =================================== ================= NORTH PIED- TRI- SOUTH -EAST MONT CHAR- WSTRN MEN MEN MEN WOMEN WOMEN WOMEN TOTAL ANGLE -EAST NC TRIAD LOTTE NC MEN WOMEN GOP DEM IND (A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N) (O) (P) (Q) (R) (S) (T) (U) (V) (W) LEAN JOHNSON % % - 1% - 1% 1% - 1% 2% - - 1% - 1% 1% - 1% HARD UNDECIDED % 6% 12% 10% 13% 8% 9% 9% 10% 16% 9% 8% 9% 8% 11% 6% 9% 11% 11% 7% 6% 10% 14% b U NAMED OTHER % 4% 1% - 2% - 5% 3% 1% - 4% 4% 1% - 3% 4% 1% 1% 2% - 1% 2% 3% cdf df JmN T t REFUSED % 2% - 2% 2% 1% 3% 2% 2% 9% 1% 1% 1% 2% 4% - 2% 3% 1% 1% 2% 1% 2% Significance Z-testing shown at 95% in UPPERCASE and 90% in lowercase in the groupings: B/C/D/E/F/G H/I J/K/L/M/N O/P/Q/R/S/T U/V/W

3 BANNER 2 CHILDREN 17 & PARTY REG/GENDER UNDER IN HH IDEOLOGY RACE EMPLOYMENT STATUS PHONE TYPE =================================== =========== ================= ================= ================== =========== GOP GOP DEM DEM IND IND FULL RET- UN- TOTAL MEN WOMEN MEN WOMEN MEN WOMEN YES NO LIB MOD CONS AF AM WHITE OTHER TIME IRED EMPLYD LAND CELL (A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N) (O) (P) (Q) (R) (S) (T) BASE=TOTAL SAMPLE % 18% 15% 16% 26% 14% 11% 22% 78% 26% 22% 47% 20% 73% 6% 49% 39% 4% 70% 30% **D/S (TRUMP - CLINTON) % 67% 58% -31% -52% 10% -4% -1% 4% -61% -17% 51% -72% 23% 12% - 14% -52% 11% -16% DEFG DEFG E DEG DE H J JK M M R PR T TOTAL TRUMP % 73% 69% 24% 12% 33% 35% 33% 41% 10% 23% 64% 3% 49% 44% 37% 46% 10% 45% 25% DEFG DEFG E E E J JK M M R PR T TOTAL CLINTON % 6% 12% 55% 64% 23% 39% 34% 37% 71% 40% 13% 75% 26% 32% 37% 32% 62% 34% 41% BCFG BCFG Bc BCF KL L NO PQ TOTAL JOHNSON % 9% - 5% 6% 20% 8% 11% 7% 7% 13% 6% 5% 8% 12% 11% 5% 5% 6% 12% C C C BCDEg C L Q S TOTAL LEAN/UNDECIDED % 9% 16% 13% 14% 17% 16% 16% 13% 8% 19% 14% 13% 13% 8% 12% 14% 18% 12% 17% J j DEFINITELY TRUMP % 56% 53% 21% 10% 26% 27% 24% 32% 8% 16% 51% 1% 39% 36% 29% 36% 10% 35% 20% DEFG DEFG E E E h j JK M M R pr T PROBABLY TRUMP % 17% 17% 3% 3% 7% 8% 9% 8% 2% 7% 14% 2% 11% 8% 8% 10% - 10% 4% DEFg DEf j JK M R R T PROBABLY CLINTON % 1% 3% 7% 8% 7% 10% 7% 6% 10% 10% 2% 10% 5% - 7% 4% 15% 4% 11% B Bc b B L L O O q S DEFINITELY CLINTON % 5% 9% 48% 57% 16% 29% 27% 31% 61% 30% 11% 66% 21% 32% 30% 29% 46% 30% 30% BCFG BCFG B BCf KL L NO DEFINITELY JOHNSON % 7% - 3% 4% 11% 4% 5% 5% 4% 9% 4% 3% 5% 12% 6% 4% - 4% 6% C c C Cde jl R R PROBABLY JOHNSON % 2% - 1% 3% 8% 4% 6% 2% 4% 4% 2% 3% 3% - 5% - 5% 1% 6% C bcde i o O Q S LEAN TRUMP % 1% 6% 1% - 1% 1% 2% 2% - 1% 3% - 2% - 3% - - 1% 3% de Jk MO QR LEAN CLINTON % 2% 2% 4% 3% - 2% 1% 3% 4% 4% - 4% 1% - 2% 2% 6% 2% 3% F F L l O O Significance Z-testing shown at 95% in UPPERCASE and 90% in lowercase in the groupings: B/C/D/E/F/G H/I J/K/L M/N/O P/Q/R S/T

4 BANNER 2 CHILDREN 17 & PARTY REG/GENDER UNDER IN HH IDEOLOGY RACE EMPLOYMENT STATUS PHONE TYPE =================================== =========== ================= ================= ================== =========== GOP GOP DEM DEM IND IND FULL RET- UN- TOTAL MEN WOMEN MEN WOMEN MEN WOMEN YES NO LIB MOD CONS AF AM WHITE OTHER TIME IRED EMPLYD LAND CELL (A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N) (O) (P) (Q) (R) (S) (T) LEAN JOHNSON % - - 1% - 1% - - 1% - - 1% % mo HARD UNDECIDED % 6% 6% 8% 10% 14% 13% 13% 9% 4% 13% 10% 9% 9% 8% 7% 11% 12% 9% 10% b J J NAMED OTHER % 1% 1% 3% 2% 5% - 4% 1% 2% 3% 1% 2% 2% 4% 3% 1% - 1% 4% g G R r REFUSED % 2% 2% - 1% 3% 1% 2% 1% 1% 3% 1% 1% 2% - 1% 1% 6% 2% 1% O Significance Z-testing shown at 95% in UPPERCASE and 90% in lowercase in the groupings: B/C/D/E/F/G H/I J/K/L M/N/O P/Q/R S/T

5 Summary of Presidential Ballot Trend BANNER 1 CIVITAS INSTITUTE NORTH CAROLINA STATEWIDE STUDY / MAY 21-23, 2016 KEY REGIONS GENDER AGE GENDER/AGE PARTY REG =================================== =========== ============================= =================================== ================= NORTH PIED- TRI- SOUTH -EAST MONT CHAR- WSTRN MEN MEN MEN WOMEN WOMEN WOMEN TOTAL ANGLE -EAST NC TRIAD LOTTE NC MEN WOMEN GOP DEM IND (A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N) (O) (P) (Q) (R) (S) (T) (U) (V) (W) BASE=TOTAL SAMPLE % 22% 15% 12% 18% 20% 14% 48% 52% 5% 12% 25% 23% 29% 10% 20% 15% 11% 22% 16% 33% 42% 25% jk K OR OR O O MAY 21-23, % -9% 11% 12% -12% 9% 19% 19% -11% -13% - -6% 3% 22% 19% 13% 32% -31% -11% 9% 63% -44% 4% BE BE BE BEf I L jkl JKLM RS RS oprst R RS VW V TRUMP % 34% 46% 42% 31% 45% 42% 46% 33% 23% 33% 33% 42% 52% 36% 45% 57% 19% 33% 47% 72% 17% 34% be be I j JKLm R Rs OpRS R RS VW V CLINTON % 43% 35% 30% 43% 36% 23% 27% 44% 35% 32% 39% 39% 31% 18% 32% 25% 50% 45% 38% 8% 61% 30% dg g dg G H O OPQ OPQ Oq UW U JOHNSON % 8% 4% 13% 6% 6% 12% 10% 5% 11% 16% 10% 6% 5% 21% 10% 4% 8% 4% 5% 5% 6% 15% C C I MN n pqrst qs UV LEAN/UNDECIDED % 9% 16% 13% 17% 13% 16% 13% 15% 22% 14% 13% 13% 11% 17% 10% 11% 19% 15% 9% 12% 13% 16% b APRIL 23-25, % -33% -15% -14% -4% -10% 12% 1% -24% -25% -10% -8% -15% -12% 3% -2% 3% -32% -18% -26% 57% -71% -3% B B BCdf B BCDEF I PRST RST PRST VW V TRUMP % 27% 36% 36% 39% 40% 47% 42% 32% 28% 36% 41% 35% 37% 42% 43% 42% 26% 35% 33% 69% 11% 38% b B B I R R R VW V CLINTON % 60% 51% 49% 42% 51% 35% 41% 56% 53% 46% 49% 50% 49% 39% 45% 39% 58% 53% 59% 12% 82% 42% EG G g G H OQ Oq OpQ UW U LEAN/UNDECIDED % 7% 7% 13% 16% 7% 12% 11% 10% 14% 10% 8% 12% 11% 8% 10% 15% 13% 10% 7% 14% 5% 15% BcF V V Significance Z-testing shown at 95% in UPPERCASE and 90% in lowercase in the groupings: B/C/D/E/F/G H/I J/K/L/M/N O/P/Q/R/S/T U/V/W

6 Summary of Presidential Ballot Trend BANNER 2 CIVITAS INSTITUTE NORTH CAROLINA STATEWIDE STUDY / MAY 21-23, 2016 CHILDREN 17 & PARTY REG/GENDER UNDER IN HH IDEOLOGY RACE EMPLOYMENT STATUS PHONE TYPE =================================== =========== ================= ================= ================== =========== GOP GOP DEM DEM IND IND FULL RET- UN- TOTAL MEN WOMEN MEN WOMEN MEN WOMEN YES NO LIB MOD CONS AF AM WHITE OTHER TIME IRED EMPLYD LAND CELL (A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N) (O) (P) (Q) (R) (S) (T) BASE=TOTAL SAMPLE % 18% 15% 16% 26% 14% 11% 22% 78% 26% 22% 47% 20% 73% 6% 49% 39% 4% 70% 30% H r pr MAY 21-23, % 67% 58% -31% -52% 10% -4% -1% 4% -61% -17% 51% -72% 23% 12% - 14% -52% 11% -16% DEFG DEFG E DEG DE H J JK M M R PR T TRUMP % 73% 69% 24% 12% 33% 35% 33% 41% 10% 23% 64% 3% 49% 44% 37% 46% 10% 45% 25% DEFG DEFG E E E J JK M M R PR T CLINTON % 6% 12% 55% 64% 23% 39% 34% 37% 71% 40% 13% 75% 26% 32% 37% 32% 62% 34% 41% BCFG BCFG Bc BCF KL L NO PQ JOHNSON % 9% - 5% 6% 20% 8% 11% 7% 7% 13% 6% 5% 8% 12% 11% 5% 5% 6% 12% C C C BCDEg C L Q S LEAN/UNDECIDED % 9% 16% 13% 14% 17% 16% 16% 13% 8% 19% 14% 13% 13% 8% 12% 14% 18% 12% 17% J j APRIL 23-25, % 61% 52% -61% -78% 6% -17% -15% -11% -71% -40% 41% -84% 12% -16% -10% -9% -46% -11% -15% DEFG DEFG DEG DE J JK MO M R R TRUMP % 70% 68% 17% 8% 42% 33% 35% 38% 11% 22% 63% 5% 48% 34% 38% 38% 25% 38% 34% DEFG DEFG E DE DE J JK Mo M CLINTON % 9% 15% 77% 86% 36% 50% 50% 48% 82% 61% 22% 89% 36% 49% 48% 48% 71% 49% 49% BCFG BCdFG BC BC KL L NO PQ LEAN/UNDECIDED % 14% 13% 4% 6% 15% 14% 9% 11% 6% 12% 11% 4% 12% 10% 9% 11% - 11% 9% De De DE D j j M R R Significance Z-testing shown at 95% in UPPERCASE and 90% in lowercase in the groupings: B/C/D/E/F/G H/I J/K/L M/N/O P/Q/R S/T