NEW JERSEY VOTERS DISLIKE CHRISTIE S HANDLING OF ECONOMY, TAXES; GOVERNOR S FAVORABILITY REMAINS NEGATIVE, RUTGERS POLL FINDS

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1 Eagleton Institute of Politics Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey 191 Ryders Lane New Brunswick, New Jersey Fax: THURSDAY DECEMBER 18, 2014 EDITOR S NOTE: ATTENTION POLITICAL, ASSIGNMENT EDITORS, Poll Director David Redlawsk may be contacted at (cell), (office), or redlawsk@rutgers.edu. Poll manager Ashley Koning may be contacted at or akoning@rutgers.edu. Find releases and additional blog commentary at Follow the on Facebook at and NEW JERSEY VOTERS DISLIKE CHRISTIE S HANDLING OF ECONOMY, TAXES; GOVERNOR S FAVORABILITY REMAINS NEGATIVE, RUTGERS POLL FINDS NEW BRUNSWICK, N.J. With speculation heating up about a Chris Christie presidential bid in 2016, the governor s ratings with New Jersey voters are lukewarm at best, according to the latest. Showing little change from October, 44 percent of registered voters feel favorable toward Christie, while 46 percent feel unfavorable. Christie s overall job approval is a little better: 48 percent approve and 47 percent disapprove. Voters remain divided on how Christie is doing, said David Redlawsk, director of the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling and professor of political science at Rutgers University. Without any recent marquee policy win and with the bloom of Sandy recovery long gone, we seem to have settled into a stasis where Democrats dislike Christie, Republicans still support him, and independents are mostly split down the middle. New Jersey voters say taxes (25 percent) and the economy and jobs (20 percent) remain their top two concerns, followed by corruption/abuse of power and education (tied at 13 percent each). Christie continues in negative territory on most top issues. His job approval on taxes is down two points since October to 31 percent, and down three points on the economy to 35 percent. Also, voters remain negative about Christie s handling of the budget (down five points to 32 percent approval) and the pension fund (24 percent approval, unchanged since last August). Forty-two percent approve how he handles education. The governor s performance on Sandy recovery ties his all-time low, declining seven points in the past two months to 53 percent, a level last seen in April Approval of his handling of crime and drugs is down six points from October to 46 percent. Voters are also more negative than positive on the direction of the state as a whole: 40 percent say New Jersey is going in the right direction while 49 percent say it is on the wrong track. For the most part, these are not particularly good numbers for Governor Christie, said Redlawsk. The declines in approval of his performance on a range of specific issues may yet lead to another drop in overall approval in the coming months, unless something changes the trend. 1

2 Results are from a statewide poll of 750 New Jersey residents, including 646 registered voters contacted by live callers on both landlines and cell phones from Dec. 3-10, This release reports on registered voters only with a margin of error of +/- 4.3 percentage points. One bright spot: report card gets a small boost While not even close to his post-sandy highs, a report card on Christie provides a slight reprieve from other lackluster ratings. Voters are six points more likely to give him a B grade (31 percent) than they were in October. Correspondingly, those who grade him a C dropped six points to 22 percent. At the extremes, 8 percent give Christie an A (virtually unchanged), while the share of Ds and Fs remains essentially stable at 17 percent and 21 percent, respectively. Christie s B rating improved among partisans of all stripes: 18 percent of Democrats (up seven points), 33 percent of independents (up four points), and 49 percent of Republicans (up eight points) give him this above-average grade. Even among voters who call the economy and taxes the state s the most important problems and rate Christie s performance poorly on these issues, B grades predominate at 34 percent among those concerned about the economy and 41 percent of voters focused on taxes. We ask a variety of questions about the governor s performance because people have many ways of thinking about what they like, said Redlawsk. Voters have recently become less enamored of him personally and are more likely to disapprove than approve on most specific issues. But Christie s report card shows the real divide, as 39 percent say he s an A or B performer and 38 percent would put him at the bottom of the class with a D or F. Republican support slips on key issues Taxes and the economy voters top concerns here continue to depress Christie s overall ratings. His approval ratings on both are at their lowest in the nearly two years of polling. Even some Republican voters have taken a step back. While 57 percent approve of Christie on the economy and jobs (29 percent disapprove), GOP voters are much less positive about how he is handling tax issues. His approval on taxes has dropped seven points since October, to 46 percent. Democrats maintain their negativity toward Christie on these issues. Twenty-seven percent approve (and 64 percent disapprove) of his performance on the economy and jobs. Twenty-two percent approve and 70 percent disapprove on taxes. Christie does not fare well among independents either: 31 percent approve his work on the economy and 32 percent on taxes. While the Democrats negative views about Christie are to be expected these days, it is a much bigger deal that independents are also negative on these two key issues, said Redlawsk. Moreover, the continued loss of Republican approval on taxes is also noteworthy. 2

3 Voters unhappy with Christie performance on top concerns Among the quarter of voters who call taxes the most important problem, Christie s overall rating are surprisingly good: they give him a percent favorability rating and a percent overall job approval rating. Yet these same voters are strongly negative on Christie s actual performance on taxes. Since October, Christie has suffered a 10-point drop in his tax performance among these voters, to just 25 percent positive versus 67 percent negative. The key to this paradox, Redlawsk noted, is that Republicans tend to care most about taxes, and they remain positive about Christie overall, even as they are less than positive on some specific issues. The 20 percent of voters who care the most about the economy give Christie a 48 percent to 47 percent overall job approval rating and split, 50 percent to 47 percent unfavorable on their impressions of the governor. But as with tax-focused voters, these respondents have become more negative on how Christie is handling their top concern. Just under a quarter now approves Christie s work on the economy, down five points since October, while 69 percent disapprove, an increase of four points. Economic concerns and New Jersey s direction Voters concerns about New Jersey s economy and taxes appear to affect how they view the state s overall performance. Among those who say the economy is their biggest concern, 37 percent say the state is going in the right direction versus 54 percent who think it is on the wrong track. Those who rate taxes as the top problem in the state are more evenly split, with 45 percent saying it is going in the right direction and 46 percent disagreeing. Approval of Christie s work in both of these areas is closely tied to which direction voters think New Jersey is headed. About seven in 10 voters who approve Christie s performance on taxes and the economy also say the state is going in the right direction. Seventy percent who disapprove of the governor s handling of the two problems say the New Jersey is on the wrong track. Overall ratings and partisanship While Christie s overall ratings remain relatively stable since October, his job approval which has usually been higher than his favorability rating is now more closely in line with voters impressions of the governor. Ninety-two percent of those favorable toward Christie also approve of his job performance, while 87 percent of those unfavorable toward Christie do not. Voters in both parties show little change in their impressions of Christie since October, when the governor s favorability rating took its first net-negative turn in a. While independents feelings about Christie are split, 47 percent favorable to 41 percent unfavorable, Democrats and Republicans take very different positions. Just 21 percent of Democrats have a favorable impression of the governor, versus 69 percent who do not. Republicans are virtually the opposite, at 74 3

4 percent favorable and 17 percent unfavorable. Christie s overall job approval among Democrats has slipped five points to 22 percent; 73 percent now disapprove. Independents are holding steady at 52 percent approval to 42 percent disapproval. Over eight in 10 Republicans support the job the governor is doing. Partisan opinions on where New Jersey is headed match closely with the governor s ratings. More than half of Democrats (57 percent) say New Jersey is on the wrong track; just 31 percent think the state is going in the right direction. Republicans believe the opposite: 62 percent say right direction, while 33 percent say wrong track. Independents, however, are more positive about Christie himself than they are about the state as a whole: 51 percent think the state is on the wrong track, while just 38 percent think things are going in the right direction. # # # QUESTIONS AND TABLES START ON THE FOLLOWING PAGE 4

5 Questions and Tables The questions covered in the release of December 18, 2014 are listed below. Column percentages may not add to 100% due to rounding. Respondents are New Jersey Registered Voters; all percentages are of weighted results. Q. First, I'd like to ask about some people and groups. Please tell me if your general impression of each one is favorable or unfavorable, or if you do not have an opinion. If you do not know the name, just say so. [OTHER NAMES ALSO GIVEN; ORDER RANDOMIZED; HELD FOR FUTURE RELEASE] Registered Voters Most Important Problem GOV. CHRIS CHRISTIE Economy and Jobs Taxes Education Favorable 44% 50% 59% 31% Unfavorable 46% 47% 29% 58% No opn/don t know person 11% 4% 13% 11% Unwgt N= Trend 10/14 8/14 4/14 2/14 1/14 11/13 10/13 9/13 6/13 4/13 2/13 11/12 9/12 8/12 6/12 3/12 RV RV RV RV RV RV RV RV RV RV RV RV RV RV RV RV Fav 42% 49% 50% 49% 46% 65% 61% 60% 64% 64% 70% 67% 48% 49% 50% 46% Unfav 45% 40% 42% 40% 43% 27% 28% 32% 26% 26% 20% 25% 42% 40% 39% 42% DK 12% 10% 9% 11% 11% 8% 11% 8% 11% 10% 10% 9% 11% 11% 11% 12% N= , /12 11/11 10/11 8/11 4/11 2/11 RV RV RV RV RV RV Fav 47% 49% 49% 45% 44% 46% Unfav 42% 37% 39% 47% 42% 44% DK 11% 14% 12% 8% 14% 10% N=

6 Party ID Ideology Gender Age Race Dem Ind Rep Lib Mod Con Male Female White Nonwhite Favorable 21% 47% 74% 25% 43% 64% 47% 40% 38% 46% 45% 45% 50% 30% Unfavorable 69% 41% 17% 70% 46% 24% 43% 48% 46% 45% 45% 48% 43% 52% Don t know 10% 12% 9% 5% 11% 12% 10% 11% 17% 9% 9% 7% 8% 18% Unwt N= Region Urban Suburb Exurban South Shore Favorable 22% 42% 47% 48% 54% Unfavorable 65% 49% 42% 38% 38% Don t know 13% 9% 11% 14% 8% Unwt N= 82* [QUESTIONS ON OTHER POLITICAL FIGURES LOCATED HERE; HELD FOR FUTURE RELEASE] Q. Please rate how Chris Christie is handling his job as governor, using a grading scale from A to F. You can give him any full letter grade, A, B, C, D, or F. Most Important Problem Economy and Jobs Taxes Education A 8% 9% 11% 4% B 31% 34% 41% 32% C 22% 24% 21% 22% D 17% 15% 13% 26% F 21% 17% 11% 17% DK 1% 1% 3% 0% Unwt N= * Trend 10/14 4/14 1/14 11/13 10/13 9/13 6/13 4/13 2/13 11/12 9/12 8/12 6/12 3/12 RV RV RV RV RV RV RV RV RV RV RV RV RV RV A 10% 13% 12% 21% 21% 17% 24% 21% 24% 28% 18% 15% 15% 12% B 25% 31% 31% 38% 39% 36% 34% 39% 40% 33% 29% 30% 31% 31% C 28% 24% 27% 22% 21% 23% 24% 22% 22% 22% 22% 25% 24% 25% D 16% 16% 15% 10% 9% 13% 9% 10% 9% 11% 15% 13% 15% 13% F 19% 16% 14% 8% 9% 10% 8% 7% 4% 5% 15% 16% 14% 17% DK 1% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 1% 1% 1% 2% 1% 2% 2% Unwt N= , /12 11/11 10/11 8/11 4/11 2/11 RV RV RV RV RV RV A 16% 18% 14% 13% 14% 14% B 27% 28% 30% 25% 32% 24% C 24% 21% 27% 18% 20% 26% D 14% 17% 14% 24% 14% 15% F 18% 13% 14% 19% 21% 19% DK 2% 2% 1% 1% 0% 2% Unwt N=

7 Registered Voters Party ID Ideology Gender Age Race Non- Dem Ind Rep Lib Mod Con Male Female White white A 3% 7% 19% 3% 9% 8% 7% 9% 8% 8% 7% 8% 9% 5% B 18% 33% 49% 21% 31% 42% 36% 27% 29% 35% 33% 27% 33% 26% C 20% 26% 18% 20% 22% 23% 20% 24% 29% 13% 22% 24% 21% 25% D 22% 17% 7% 17% 18% 12% 16% 17% 15% 12% 20% 19% 18% 15% F 37% 16% 6% 38% 19% 13% 21% 21% 20% 29% 17% 21% 18% 27% DK 0% 1% 2% 0% 1% 2% 1% 1% 0% 3% 0% 1% 1% 2% Unwt N= Region Urban Suburb Exurban South Shore A 2% 9% 5% 11% 11% B 18% 31% 40% 36% 30% C 28% 23% 19% 16% 26% D 20% 17% 17% 18% 12% F 32% 20% 17% 18% 21% DK 0% 1% 2% 2% 1% Unwt N= 82* Q. Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Chris Christie is handling his job as governor? Christie Favorability Most Important Problem 12/14 RV Fav Unfav Economy and Jobs Taxes Education Approve 48% 92% 7% 48% 64% 42% Disapprove 47% 5% 87% 47% 29% 55% Don't know 5% 2% 6% 5% 7% 3% Unwgt N= * 7

8 Trend 10/14 8/14 4/14 2/14 1/14 11/13 10/13 9/13 6/13 4/13 2/13 11/12 RV RV RV RV RV RV RV RV RV RV RV RV Approve 49% 52% 55% 55% 53% 68% 67% 66% 70% 68% 73% 67% Disapprove 46% 41% 41% 39% 41% 26% 29% 31% 25% 26% 23% 26% Don t know 5% 7% 4% 6% 6% 6% 5% 4% 5% 5% 4% 7% Unwgt N= Party ID Ideology Gender Age Race Non- Dem Ind Rep Lib Mod Con Male Female White white Approve 22% 52% 82% 24% 49% 66% 51% 45% 47% 46% 50% 47% 52% 37% Disapprove 73% 42% 16% 71% 46% 29% 45% 49% 48% 48% 47% 46% 43% 56% Don t know 5% 7% 2% 5% 5% 6% 4% 7% 5% 6% 3% 8% 5% 7% Unwt N= Region Urban Suburb Exurban South Shore Approve 27% 46% 54% 50% 57% Disapprove 66% 47% 40% 49% 39% Don t know 6% 7% 6% 2% 4% Unwt N= 80* Q. Now I am going to list some specific areas where I would like you to tell me if you approve or disapprove of the job Chris Christie is doing. First: [RANDOMIZE ORDER] NJ s economy and jobs Taxes Education and schools Sandy recovery Crime and drugs The state budget State Pension fund situation Approve 35% 31% 42% 53% 46% 32% 24% Disapprove 54% 60% 49% 39% 34% 53% 53% Don t know 11% 8% 9% 7% 19% 15% 24% Unwgt N=

9 NJ s Economy and Jobs Christie Favorability Christie Overall Job Approval Most Imp Problem RV Fav Unfav Approve Disapprove Economy/Jobs Approve 35% 60% 13% 59% 12% 24% Disapprove 54% 29% 77% 30% 79% 69% Don't know 11% 11% 10% 10% 9% 7% Unwgt N= Party ID Ideology Gender Region Dem Ind Rep Lib Mod Con Male Female Urban Suburb Exurban South Shore Approve 27% 31% 57% 23% 38% 38% 35% 35% 25% 32% 45% 34% 38% Disapprove 64% 58% 29% 62% 53% 49% 57% 52% 61% 60% 40% 54% 52% Don t know 9% 11% 14% 16% 9% 12% 8% 13% 14% 8% 15% 11% 10% Unwt N= * Taxes Christie Favorability Christie Overall Job Approval Most Imp Problem RV Fav Unfav Approve Disapprove Taxes Approve 31% 55% 11% 55% 10% 25% Disapprove 60% 36% 82% 36% 84% 67% Don't know 8% 9% 7% 9% 6% 8% Unwgt N= Party ID Ideology Gender Region Dem Ind Rep Lib Mod Con Male Female Urban Suburb Exurban South Shore Approve 22% 32% 46% 22% 33% 37% 37% 27% 28% 30% 35% 26% 38% Disapprove 70% 59% 46% 71% 58% 55% 58% 62% 62% 63% 53% 68% 55% Don t know 8% 9% 8% 7% 9% 7% 5% 11% 10% 8% 12% 6% 7% Unwt N= * Education and Schools Christie Favorability Christie Overall Approval Most Imp Problem RV Fav Unfav Approve Disapprove Education/Schools Approve 42% 69% 16% 68% 15% 14% Disapprove 49% 22% 76% 24% 77% 81% Don't know 9% 9% 8% 8% 8% 5% Unwgt N= * 9

10 Party ID Ideology Gender Region Dem Ind Rep Lib Mod Con Male Female Urban Suburb Exurban South Shore Approve 27% 43% 63% 29% 43% 51% 44% 40% 28% 40% 40% 43% 53% Disapprove 67% 47% 25% 64% 50% 33% 48% 50% 65% 53% 43% 50% 38% Don t know 7% 9% 12% 7% 7% 16% 8% 10% 7% 7% 17% 7% 8% Unwt N= * Hurricane Sandy Recovery Christie Overall Christie Favorability Approval RV Fav Unfav Approve Disapprove Approve 53% 71% 36% 70% 36% Disapprove 39% 20% 58% 23% 58% Don't know 7% 9% 6% 7% 6% Unwgt N= Party ID Ideology Gender Region Dem Ind Rep Lib Mod Con Male Female Urban Suburb Exurban South Shore Approve 46% 55% 64% 45% 56% 52% 52% 54% 42% 55% 48% 62% 56% Disapprove 48% 39% 26% 50% 39% 32% 41% 38% 50% 38% 44% 29% 37% Don t know 6% 6% 10% 5% 4% 16% 7% 8% 8% 7% 7% 9% 7% Unwt N= * Crime and drugs Christie Overall Christie Favorability Approval RV Fav Unfav Approve Disapprove Approve 46% 69% 26% 68% 26% Disapprove 34% 14% 52% 15% 55% Don't know 19% 17% 22% 17% 19% Unwgt N= Party ID Ideology Gender Region Dem Ind Rep Lib Mod Con Male Female Urban Suburb Exurban South Shore Approve 32% 46% 70% 27% 50% 55% 50% 43% 36% 47% 47% 44% 53% Disapprove 49% 32% 16% 49% 32% 27% 32% 36% 56% 30% 29% 39% 28% Don t know 20% 22% 15% 23% 18% 18% 18% 21% 7% 23% 24% 18% 19% Unwt N= *

11 The state budget Christie Overall Christie Favorability Approval RV Fav Unfav Approve Disapprove Approve 32% 62% 7% 62% 3% Disapprove 53% 22% 83% 24% 85% Don't know 15% 16% 10% 15% 12% Unwgt N= Party ID Ideology Gender Region Dem Ind Rep Lib Mod Con Male Female Urban Suburb Exurban South Shore Approve 10% 35% 64% 15% 34% 43% 34% 30% 17% 29% 36% 34% 42% Disapprove 78% 50% 20% 74% 53% 38% 52% 54% 68% 56% 46% 53% 47% Don t know 12% 15% 16% 11% 13% 19% 14% 15% 14% 16% 18% 13% 11% Unwt N= * The state pension fund situation Christie Overall Christie Favorability Approval RV Fav Unfav Approve Disapprove Approve 24% 42% 8% 41% 7% Disapprove 53% 30% 75% 31% 76% Don't know 24% 28% 17% 28% 17% Unwgt N= Party ID Ideology Gender Region Dem Ind Rep Lib Mod Con Male Female Urban Suburb Exurban South Shore Approve 9% 26% 43% 12% 24% 34% 25% 23% 15% 23% 24% 27% 28% Disapprove 72% 51% 25% 75% 50% 41% 56% 50% 60% 54% 52% 49% 50% Don t know 19% 23% 32% 13% 26% 24% 19% 27% 25% 23% 24% 23% 23% Unwt N= * Q. Would you say the state of New Jersey is currently going in the right direction or has it gone off on the wrong track? Christie Christie Christie Overall Most Important Econ. Christie Favorability Approval Problem and Jobs Taxes Econ./ RV Fav Unfav App Disapp jobs Taxes App Disapp App Disapp Going in the right direction 40% 67% 15% 68% 13% 37% 45% 72% 19% 71% 23% On the wrong track 49% 24% 73% 24% 76% 54% 46% 21% 72% 22% 67% Don't know 10% 9% 12% 9% 11% 9% 9% 7% 9% 7% 10% Unwgt N=

12 Party ID Ideology Gender Age Race Dem Ind Rep Lib Mod Con Male Female White Nonwhite Right direction 31% 38% 62% 30% 41% 49% 42% 39% 46% 41% 39% 36% 42% 37% Wrong track 57% 51% 33% 59% 50% 41% 50% 49% 47% 45% 52% 52% 49% 51% Don t know 12% 11% 5% 11% 10% 10% 8% 12% 7% 14% 9% 12% 9% 13% Unwt N= Region Urban Suburb Exurban South Shore Right direction 27% 36% 46% 50% 45% Wrong track 58% 54% 45% 41% 45% Don t know 15% 9% 8% 9% 11% Unwt N= 79* Q. Of the following, which is the MOST important problem facing New Jersey today? Is it: [RANDOMIZE OPTION ORDER] Christie Favorability RV Fav Unfav Taxes, including property taxes 25% 34% 16% The economy and jobs 20% 22% 20% Education and schools 13% 9% 16% Government corruption and abuse of power 13% 9% 18% Crime and drugs 8% 8% 9% The state pension fund 8% 6% 11% Health care 3% 3% 3% Government spending 2% 3% 1% Hurricane Sandy recovery 2% 3% 1% Something else 3% 1% 4% Don't know 2% 1% 1% Unwgt N= Party ID Ideology Gender Age Race Nonwhite Dem Ind Rep Lib Mod Con Male Female White Taxes 14% 28% 39% 18% 26% 32% 25% 26% 21% 21% 27% 29% 16% Econ. and jobs 20% 20% 18% 23% 18% 20% 19% 20% 16% 16% 25% 22% 15% Educ. and schools 18% 11% 7% 18% 13% 6% 12% 14% 21% 10% 12% 12% 16% Gov. corruption 12% 17% 7% 13% 14% 9% 15% 11% 14% 18% 12% 12% 15% Crime and drugs 13% 5% 8% 8% 8% 10% 6% 11% 9% 12% 8% 5% 15% State pension fund 8% 7% 10% 9% 7% 8% 9% 6% 5% 9% 6% 9% 5% Health care 6% 1% 4% 3% 3% 4% 3% 4% 1% 5% 4% 3% 3% Gov. spending 1% 4% 2% 1% 3% 3% 4% 1% 3% 4% 1% 3% 2% Sandy recovery 2% 1% 3% 1% 2% 1% 1% 2% 3% 2% 1% 2% 2% Something else 4% 3% 3% 4% 3% 3% 3% 3% 6% 2% 3% 2% 6% Don't know 2% 2% 0% 1% 1% 3% 2% 2% 2% 1% 2% 1% 3% Unwt N=

13 Region Urban Suburb Exurban South Shore Taxes 18% 27% 27% 28% 24% Econ. and jobs 16% 18% 19% 23% 23% Educ. and schools 14% 17% 7% 17% 9% Gov. corruption 10% 11% 16% 10% 18% Crime and drugs 19% 9% 4% 6% 6% State pension fund 10% 6% 13% 9% 3% Health care 6% 4% 3% 1% 3% Gov. spending 1% 2% 4% 3% 3% Sandy recovery 0% 3% 0% 0% 4% Something else 7% 0% 6% 3% 5% Don't know 0% 4% 1% 1% 2% Unwt N= 82* December 3 10, 2014 The was conducted by telephone using live callers December 3-10, 2014 with a scientifically selected random sample of 750 New Jersey adults including 646 registered voters. This telephone poll included 423 landline and 327 cell phone adults, all acquired through random digit dialing. Distribution of household phone use in this sample is: Cell Only: 22% Dual Use, Reached on Cell: 22% Dual Use, Reached on LL: 50% Landline Only: 6% Data for registered voters (N=646) and all adults (N=750) were weighted separately to the demographics of registered voters and adults in New Jersey, respectively. Both weights account for the probability of being selected within the sample frame and the probability of being sampled within a household, based on the number of individuals living in the household and the phone composition (cell, landline) of the household. The samples were weighted to several demographic variables reflecting the population parameters of the state of New Jersey: gender, race, age, and Hispanic ethnicity. The final weight, which combined all of the parameters mentioned, was trimmed at the 5th and 95th percentile so as to not accord too much weight to any one case or subset of cases. All results are reported with these weighted data. All surveys are subject to sampling error, which is the expected probable difference between interviewing everyone in a population versus a scientific sampling drawn from that population. Sampling error should be adjusted to recognize the effect of weighting the data to better match the population. In this poll, the simple sampling error for the 750 adults is +/-3.6 percentage points at a 95 percent confidence interval. The adult sample weighting design effect is 1.25, making the adjusted margin of error +/- 4.0 percentage points for the adult sample. The simple sampling error for 646 registered voters is +/-3.9 percentage points. The weighting design effect for the registered voter sample is 1.22, making the adjusted margin of error +/-4.3 percentage points for the registered voter sample. Thus if 50 percent of New Jersey registered voters in this sample favor a particular position, we would be 95 percent sure that the true figure is between 45.7 and 54.3 percent (50 +/-4.3) if all New Jersey registered voters had been interviewed, rather than just a sample. 13

14 Sampling error increases as the sample size decreases, so statements based on various population subgroups are subject to more error than are statements based on the total sample. Sampling error does not take into account other sources of variation inherent in public opinion studies, such as non-response, question wording or context effects. This was fielded in house by the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling. The questionnaire was developed and all data analyses were completed in house. The is paid for and sponsored by the Eagleton Institute of Politics, Rutgers University, a non-partisan academic center for the study of politics and the political process. Weighted Sample Characteristics 646 New Jersey Registered Voters 34% Democrat 46% Male 16% % White 46% Independent/Other 54% Female 28% % Black 20% Republican 38% % Hispanic 24% % Asian/Other/Multi 14