NORTH CAROLINA STUDY / JUNE 21-23, Summary of Presidential Ballot Trend BANNER 1
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1 BASE=TOTAL SAMPLE % 22% 13% 12% 19% 21% 13% 48% 52% 3% 18% 23% 25% 26% 14% 19% 13% 10% 23% 16% 33% 42% 25% **D/S (TRUMP - CLINTON) % -14% -5% -8% 4% 2% 11% 17% -19% -15% - 5% 1% -9% 9% 23% 11% -17% -11% -28% 59% -57% 10% b BCD BCD BCDF I N JKMN KN RST OQRST RST T VW V TOTAL TRUMP % 33% 38% 39% 44% 41% 48% 50% 31% 28% 39% 42% 43% 38% 45% 53% 48% 27% 36% 28% 69% 15% 45% b B I RT RST RsT VW V TOTAL CLINTON % 47% 44% 47% 40% 39% 37% 33% 51% 43% 39% 37% 42% 48% 36% 30% 38% 44% 48% 56% 10% 72% 35% H l p op OPQ UW U TOTAL JOHNSON % 9% 7% 6% 2% 5% 6% 8% 4% - 9% 5% 7% 5% 6% 9% 8% 9% 4% 3% 9% 3% 7% E J J J J t V v TOTAL LEAN/UNDECIDED % 10% 8% 8% 12% 13% 6% 8% 12% 23% 12% 13% 6% 7% 10% 7% 6% 20% 10% 11% 11% 9% 10% h Mn PQ DEFINITELY TRUMP % 28% 27% 36% 35% 37% 38% 43% 25% 28% 35% 32% 36% 32% 40% 45% 40% 21% 28% 23% 57% 12% 37% I RT RST RsT VW V PROBABLY TRUMP % 5% 11% 3% 9% 5% 10% 7% 6% - 4% 10% 7% 7% 5% 8% 8% 6% 8% 5% 12% 3% 8% d j Jk J J V V DEFINITELY CLINTON % 40% 38% 42% 35% 33% 33% 29% 44% 31% 33% 32% 37% 44% 29% 27% 33% 36% 41% 53% 9% 63% 30% H kl op OPQRs UW U PROBABLY CLINTON % 6% 5% 5% 4% 6% 4% 4% 6% 12% 6% 5% 5% 3% 7% 2% 4% 8% 7% 3% 1% 9% 4% p Uw DEFINITELY JOHNSON % 6% 5% 3% 2% 2% 5% 5% 3% - 7% 3% 4% 3% 5% 6% 4% 7% 1% 3% 6% 3% 4% J J J J S PROBABLY JOHNSON % 3% 2% 3% - 2% 1% 2% 1% - 2% 2% 3% 1% 1% 2% 4% 2% 3% - 3% - 3% E e j J t t t V v LEAN TRUMP % 1% 2% 1% - 4% 4% 2% 2% 5% 1% 5% 1% - 4% 2% - - 4% - 2% 1% 3% E e kn qrt QRT LEAN CLINTON % 1% - 1% 1% 1% - 1% 1% - 1% 2% % - 2% 1% - 1% - 1% jmn
2 LEAN JOHNSON % 1% - - 1% 1% 1% 1% - - 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 1% - - 1% 1% 1% 1% HARD UNDECIDED % 7% 6% 6% 10% 7% 1% 4% 9% 18% 9% 6% 4% 7% 5% 2% 5% 18% 5% 10% 7% 7% 5% G G G H OPQS P NAMED OTHER % - - 1% - 1% - 6% - 1% - 1% 3% - 1% % 1% i REFUSED % 1% - - 2% 2% 3% 1% 2% - - 1% 2% 1% - 2% - - 2% 2% 1% 1% 3% jk oqr
3 BANNER 2 PARTY REG/GENDER IDEOLOGY RACE EMPLOYMENT STATUS PHONE TYPE IDEOLOGY/GENDER =================================== ================= ================= ================= =========== =================================== GOP GOP DEM DEM IND IND FULL RET- LIB LIB MOD MOD CONS CONS TOTAL MEN WOMEN MEN WOMEN MEN WOMEN LIB MOD CONS AF AM WHITE OTHER TIME IRED UNEMP LAND CELL MEN WOMEN MEN WOMEN MEN WOMEN (X) BASE=TOTAL SAMPLE % 18% 15% 18% 24% 12% 13% 27% 26% 44% 18% 72% 7% 48% 36% 7% 73% 27% 9% 17% 13% 12% 24% 20% **D/S (TRUMP - CLINTON) % 63% 53% -39% -70% 33% -10% -67% -27% 53% -86% 21% -30% 6% -14% 2% 1% -9% -58% -72% -19% -36% 67% 37% DEFG DEFG E DEG DE H HI KM K OP O R TOTAL TRUMP % 73% 64% 24% 8% 55% 36% 8% 27% 68% 4% 51% 27% 43% 36% 39% 42% 34% 9% 7% 31% 23% 76% 59% DEFG DEG E DEG de H HI KM K r TOTAL CLINTON % 9% 11% 64% 78% 21% 46% 74% 54% 15% 90% 29% 57% 36% 50% 38% 42% 43% 67% 78% 50% 58% 9% 21% BCFG BCDFG Bc BCF IJ J LM L N TOTAL JOHNSON % 11% 7% 3% 3% 9% 5% 6% 8% 6% 1% 7% 5% 7% 5% 5% 6% 7% 10% 4% 8% 7% 7% 4% DE e K TOTAL LEAN/UNDECIDED % 6% 18% 8% 10% 11% 9% 9% 10% 10% 6% 11% 11% 11% 7% 18% 9% 14% 8% 10% 9% 12% 7% 13% BDg k o DEFINITELY TRUMP % 62% 51% 19% 7% 49% 27% 7% 20% 57% 4% 42% 27% 36% 30% 28% 36% 27% 9% 6% 25% 14% 65% 48% DEfG DEG E DEG E H HI K K r PROBABLY TRUMP % 10% 13% 5% 1% 6% 10% 1% 7% 11% - 9% - 7% 6% 12% 7% 7% - 1% 6% 8% 11% 11% E de E e E H H KM DEFINITELY CLINTON % 8% 10% 56% 68% 19% 40% 66% 49% 12% 82% 25% 55% 32% 45% 33% 37% 35% 60% 69% 45% 53% 7% 17% BCFG BCDFG b BCF IJ J LM L N PROBABLY CLINTON % 2% 1% 8% 10% 3% 6% 9% 5% 3% 8% 4% 2% 4% 5% 5% 4% 8% 7% 10% 6% 5% 2% 4% BC BCF J q DEFINITELY JOHNSON % 6% 5% 3% 3% 8% 1% 3% 7% 3% 1% 5% - 5% 3% 2% 4% 4% 6% 2% 7% 7% 4% 2% g g KM PROBABLY JOHNSON % 5% 1% 1% - 1% 4% 3% 1% 2% - 2% 5% 2% 2% 2% 2% 3% 4% 2% 1% - 3% 2% de e K LEAN TRUMP % 3% 2% 1% 1% 3% 3% 1% 2% 2% 1% 2% 3% 3% 1% - 2% 2% 2% 1% 4% - 1% 3% OP LEAN CLINTON % - 1% - 1% 2% - - 1% - - 1% - 1% - 2% - 1% 1% - - 3% 1% - KM Significance Z-testing shown at 95% in UPPERCASE and 90% in lowercase in the groupings: B/C/D/E/F/G H/I/J K/L/M N/O/P Q/R
4 BANNER 2 PARTY REG/GENDER IDEOLOGY RACE EMPLOYMENT STATUS PHONE TYPE IDEOLOGY/GENDER =================================== ================= ================= ================= =========== =================================== GOP GOP DEM DEM IND IND FULL RET- LIB LIB MOD MOD CONS CONS TOTAL MEN WOMEN MEN WOMEN MEN WOMEN LIB MOD CONS AF AM WHITE OTHER TIME IRED UNEMP LAND CELL MEN WOMEN MEN WOMEN MEN WOMEN (X) LEAN JOHNSON % 1% 1% 2% - 2% - 1% 1% 1% - 1% - 1% 1% 2% 1% 1% 2% - 1% - 1% 1% KM HARD UNDECIDED % 3% 13% 5% 9% 4% 6% 7% 7% 6% 5% 7% 8% 7% 5% 15% 6% 9% 3% 9% 4% 9% 4% 9% BdF B NAMED OTHER % - 1% - 1% - 1% 1% - - 1% - 1% % 2% - 1% - 1% - km REFUSED % - 1% - 1% 3% 3% 2% - 1% - 2% - 2% 1% - 2% - 3% 1% % i i KM P p Significance Z-testing shown at 95% in UPPERCASE and 90% in lowercase in the groupings: B/C/D/E/F/G H/I/J K/L/M N/O/P Q/R
5 Summary of Presidential Ballot Trend NORTH CAROLINA STUDY / JUNE 21-23, 2016 BASE=TOTAL SAMPLE % 22% 13% 12% 19% 21% 13% 48% 52% 3% 18% 23% 25% 26% 14% 19% 13% 10% 23% 16% 33% 42% 25% Jl J JL J JUN % -14% -5% -8% 4% 2% 11% 17% -19% -15% - 5% 1% -9% 9% 23% 11% -17% -11% -28% 59% -57% 10% b BCD BCD BCDF I N JKMN KN RST OQRST RST T VW V TRUMP % 33% 38% 39% 44% 41% 48% 50% 31% 28% 39% 42% 43% 38% 45% 53% 48% 27% 36% 28% 69% 15% 45% b B I RT RST RsT VW V CLINTON % 47% 44% 47% 40% 39% 37% 33% 51% 43% 39% 37% 42% 48% 36% 30% 38% 44% 48% 56% 10% 72% 35% H l p op OPQ UW U JOHNSON % 9% 7% 6% 2% 5% 6% 8% 4% - 9% 5% 7% 5% 6% 9% 8% 9% 4% 3% 9% 3% 7% E J J J J t V v LEAN/UNDECIDED % 10% 8% 8% 12% 13% 6% 8% 12% 23% 12% 13% 6% 7% 10% 7% 6% 20% 10% 11% 11% 9% 10% h Mn PQ MAY % -9% 11% 12% -12% 9% 19% 19% -11% -13% - -6% 3% 22% 19% 13% 32% -31% -11% 9% 63% -44% 4% BE BE BE BEf I L jkl JKLM RS RS oprst R RS VW V TRUMP % 34% 46% 42% 31% 45% 42% 46% 33% 23% 33% 33% 42% 52% 36% 45% 57% 19% 33% 47% 72% 17% 34% be be I j JKLm R Rs OpRS R RS VW V CLINTON % 43% 35% 30% 43% 36% 23% 27% 44% 35% 32% 39% 39% 31% 18% 32% 25% 50% 45% 38% 8% 61% 30% dg g dg G H O OPQ OPQ Oq UW U JOHNSON % 8% 4% 13% 6% 6% 12% 10% 5% 11% 16% 10% 6% 5% 21% 10% 4% 8% 4% 5% 5% 6% 15% C C I MN n pqrst qs UV LEAN/UNDECIDED % 9% 16% 13% 17% 13% 16% 13% 15% 22% 14% 13% 13% 11% 17% 10% 11% 19% 15% 9% 12% 13% 16% b APR % -33% -15% -14% -4% -10% 12% 1% -24% -25% -10% -8% -15% -12% 3% -2% 3% -32% -18% -26% 57% -71% -3% B B BCdf B BCDEF I PRST RST PRST VW V TRUMP % 27% 36% 36% 39% 40% 47% 42% 32% 28% 36% 41% 35% 37% 42% 43% 42% 26% 35% 33% 69% 11% 38% b B B I R R R VW V CLINTON % 60% 51% 49% 42% 51% 35% 41% 56% 53% 46% 49% 50% 49% 39% 45% 39% 58% 53% 59% 12% 82% 42% EG G g G H OQ Oq OpQ UW U
6 Summary of Presidential Ballot Trend NORTH CAROLINA STUDY / JUNE 21-23, 2016 LEAN/UNDECIDED % 7% 7% 13% 16% 7% 12% 11% 10% 14% 10% 8% 12% 11% 8% 10% 15% 13% 10% 7% 14% 5% 15% BcF V V
7 Summary of Presidential Ballot Trend BANNER 2 NORTH CAROLINA STUDY / JUNE 21-23, 2016 PARTY REG/GENDER IDEOLOGY RACE EMPLOYMENT STATUS PHONE TYPE IDEOLOGY/GENDER =================================== ================= ================= ================= =========== =================================== GOP GOP DEM DEM IND IND FULL RET- LIB LIB MOD MOD CONS CONS TOTAL MEN WOMEN MEN WOMEN MEN WOMEN LIB MOD CONS AF AM WHITE OTHER TIME IRED UNEMP LAND CELL MEN WOMEN MEN WOMEN MEN WOMEN (X) BASE=TOTAL SAMPLE % 18% 15% 18% 24% 12% 13% 27% 26% 44% 18% 72% 7% 48% 36% 7% 73% 27% 9% 17% 13% 12% 24% 20% f F JUN % 63% 53% -39% -70% 33% -10% -67% -27% 53% -86% 21% -30% 6% -14% 2% 1% -9% -58% -72% -19% -36% 67% 37% DEFG DEFG E DEG DE H HI KM K OP O R TRUMP % 73% 64% 24% 8% 55% 36% 8% 27% 68% 4% 51% 27% 43% 36% 39% 42% 34% 9% 7% 31% 23% 76% 59% DEFG DEG E DEG de H HI KM K r CLINTON % 9% 11% 64% 78% 21% 46% 74% 54% 15% 90% 29% 57% 36% 50% 38% 42% 43% 67% 78% 50% 58% 9% 21% BCFG BCDFG Bc BCF IJ J LM L N JOHNSON % 11% 7% 3% 3% 9% 5% 6% 8% 6% 1% 7% 5% 7% 5% 5% 6% 7% 10% 4% 8% 7% 7% 4% DE e K LEAN/UNDECIDED % 6% 18% 8% 10% 11% 9% 9% 10% 10% 6% 11% 11% 11% 7% 18% 9% 14% 8% 10% 9% 12% 7% 13% BDg k o MAY % 67% 58% -31% -52% 10% -4% -61% -17% 51% -72% 23% 12% - 14% -52% 11% -16% -60% -61% -3% -32% 61% 39% DEFG DEFG E DEG DE H HI K K P NP R TRUMP % 73% 69% 24% 12% 33% 35% 10% 23% 64% 3% 49% 44% 37% 46% 10% 45% 25% 11% 10% 27% 18% 69% 59% DEFG DEFG E E E H HI K K P NP R CLINTON % 6% 12% 55% 64% 23% 39% 71% 40% 13% 75% 26% 32% 37% 32% 62% 34% 41% 71% 71% 30% 50% 8% 19% BCFG BCFG Bc BCF IJ J LM NO JOHNSON % 9% - 5% 6% 20% 8% 7% 13% 6% 5% 8% 12% 11% 5% 5% 6% 12% 10% 6% 19% 7% 7% 5% C C C BCDEg C J O Q LEAN/UNDECIDED % 9% 16% 13% 14% 17% 16% 8% 19% 14% 13% 13% 8% 12% 14% 18% 12% 17% 4% 11% 16% 22% 13% 15% H h APR % 61% 52% -61% -78% 6% -17% -71% -40% 41% -84% 12% -16% -10% -9% -46% -11% -15% -62% -76% -30% -52% 48% 34% DEFG DEFG DEG DE H HI KM K P P TRUMP % 70% 68% 17% 8% 42% 33% 11% 22% 63% 5% 48% 34% 38% 38% 25% 38% 34% 16% 8% 28% 14% 64% 62% DEFG DEFG E DE DE H HI Km K CLINTON % 9% 15% 77% 86% 36% 50% 82% 61% 22% 89% 36% 49% 48% 48% 71% 49% 49% 78% 84% 58% 66% 16% 28% BCFG BCdFG BC BC IJ J LM NO LEAN/UNDECIDED % 14% 13% 4% 6% 15% 14% 6% 12% 11% 4% 12% 10% 9% 11% - 11% 9% 4% 8% 9% 16% 14% 8% De De DE D h h K P P Significance Z-testing shown at 95% in UPPERCASE and 90% in lowercase in the groupings: B/C/D/E/F/G H/I/J K/L/M N/O/P Q/R
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