Daily Market Update Report as on Monday, September 17, 2018

Transcription

1 Daily Market Update Report as on Monday, September 17, 2018 Gold posted a volatile two-sided trade last week settled at level. Early in the week, a weaker U.S. Dollar drove the market higher due to increased demand for dollar-denominated assets. Gold was also supported by the news that the U.S. had extended an invitation to China to renew trade talks. Weaker-than-expected U.S. Producer Inflation and Consumer Inflation reports also drove traders into gold, however, gains were limited by rising U.S. Treasury yields ahead of a widely expected Fed rate hike later this week. Finally, gold gave back most of its gains on Friday due to upbeat U.S. retail sales and consumer confidence reports. A report that President Trump told his aides to proceed with tariffs on about $200 billion worth of Chinese imports also rattled investors. Government should focus on boosting exports, import curbs may not help control CAD: FIEO - The government should focus primarily on boosting exports to check the widening current account deficit as imposing curbs on imports may not have a significant impact, exporters' body FIEO said Saturday. Federation of Indian Export Organisations (FIEO) President Ganesh Gupta said the government should not restrict imports to address rising current account deficit (CAD) and fall in rupee. "I do not think that we should restrict imports unless we want to join bandwagon of protectionism and hope that it will spur Make in India," he told PTI. He also said that CAD at 2.5 per cent of GDP should not be a cause of concern as anything below 3 per cent is not alarming. "We have sizeable forex reserves to cover 10 months of imports," he added. India shifts to discount; gold buying tapers off elsewhere as prices gain - Physical gold buying waned in major Asian centres this week as bullion prices rebounded from recent lows, with dealers in India offering the metal at a discount for the first time in over a month as an uptick in local rates moderated demand. In India, the world's second-biggest consumer of the metal after China, gold was being sold at a discount of up to $2 an ounce over official domestic prices this week, compared with a premium of $1 last week. The domestic price includes a 10 percent import tax. Gold-Silver Ratio at Highest Mark in 27 Years - The Gold-Silver Ratio has been one of the most reliable technical buy indicators for Silver, whenever the ratio climbs above 80. The gold-to-silver ratio has moves above 85, which is the highest mark of this 18-year Bull market. We have to go back 27 years to Y 1991 for the ratio to be higher than it is now. Notably, the ratio is currently higher than it was at the depths of the Ys financial crisis. The gold-to-silver ratio is a powerful trading signal that can help to identify buying or selling opportunities in the precious metals sector. The ratio represents the number of silver ounces it takes to buy a single ounce of gold. Physical gold buying waned in major Asian centres this week as bullion prices rebounded from recent lows, with dealers in India offering the metal at a discount for the first time in over a month as an uptick in local rates moderated demand. In India, the world s second-biggest consumer of the metal after China, gold was being sold at a discount of up to $2 an ounce over official domestic prices in the week, compared with a premium of $1 last week. Meanwhile, premiums in China have ranged between $3 and $6 an ounce in the week, versus last week s $6-$7. In Hong Kong, premiums were around 70 cents to $1.30 against the global benchmark, as against $0.90 to $1.40 an ounce previously. Date Gold* Silver* 14 Sep 2018 (Friday) Sep 2018 (Wednesday) Sep 2018 (Tuesday) The above rate are IBJA PM rates * Rates are exclusive of GST 14 Sep 2018 (Friday) Page 1

2 Outlook: Gold prices steadied as investors remained cautious on reports that the United States is set impose a new round of tariffs on Chinese imports. For the day prices a jump towards will look to sell with a stoploss of above expecting prices to drop towards level. MCX GOLD Market View Daily Levels Open High Low Close Value Change % Change Margin Margin (Rs.) Volume Open Interest Cng in OI (%) Prev Value(Mln) 52 Week High 52 Week Low Resistance Support Spread DEC - OCT FEB - DEC Gold prices seen under pressure tempered by expectations of a U.S. rate hike later this month. The dollar index slipped to a 1-1/2-month low after weaker-thanexpected U.S. inflation data and a recovery in emerging markets. The months-long trade tension between Washington and Beijing has prompted investors to buy the U.S. dollar in the belief that the United States has less to lose from the dispute. Investors widely expect another 0.25 percentage point interest rate hike when the U.S. central bank meets on Sept , and there is a strong chance of another increase in December. Physical gold buying waned in major Asian centres in the week as bullion prices rebounded from recent lows, with dealers in India offering the metal at a discount for the first time in over a month as an uptick in local rates moderated demand. In India, the world s second-biggest consumer of the metal after China, gold was being sold at a discount of up to $2 an ounce over official domestic prices in the week, compared with a premium of $1 last week. Holdings of SPDR Gold, were down 0.4 percent on Thursday and 4.1 million ounces from an April peak. Hedge funds and money managers cut their net short position in COMEX gold contracts in the week to Sept. 11, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data showed. Gold speculators cut their net short position by 7,493 contracts to 71,425 contracts, CFTC data showed. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 3.47% to settled at 8168, now Gold is getting support at and below same could see a test of level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 30592, a move above could see prices testing Page 2

3 INT. GOLD$ Market View Daily Levels Open High Low Close Value Change % Change Resistance Support Outlook: Gold price trades with clear negativity since testing level, to keep the bearish trend valid and active in the upcoming sessions, reminding you that our main targets begin at and extend to , while holding below represents key condition to achieve the suggested targets. Gold prices seen under pressure tempered by expectations of a U.S. rate hike later this month. The dollar index slipped to a 1-1/2-month low after weaker-thanexpected U.S. inflation data and a recovery in emerging markets. The months-long trade tension between Washington and Beijing has prompted investors to buy the U.S. dollar in the belief that the United States has less to lose from the dispute. Investors widely expect another 0.25 percentage point interest rate hike when the U.S. central bank meets on Sept , and there is a strong chance of another increase in December. Physical gold buying waned in major Asian centres in the week as bullion prices rebounded from recent lows, with dealers in India offering the metal at a discount for the first time in over a month as an uptick in local rates moderated demand. In India, the world s second-biggest consumer of the metal after China, gold was being sold at a discount of up to $2 an ounce over official domestic prices in the week, compared with a premium of $1 last week. Holdings of SPDR Gold, were down 0.4 percent on Thursday and 4.1 million ounces from an April peak. Hedge funds and money managers cut their net short position in COMEX gold contracts in the week to Sept. 11, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data showed. Gold speculators cut their net short position by 7,493 contracts to 71,425 contracts, CFTC data showed. Technically now Gold is getting support at and below same could see a test of level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at , a move above could see prices testing Page 3

4 Rupee this week will be trading with volatility as Indian government late on Friday announced a slew of steps aimed at stemming a steep decline in the rupee, which has fallen rapidly this year, and it left the door open to announcing more measures. While technically market is getting support at and below same could see a test of level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 72.18, a move above could see prices testing USDINR Market View Daily Levels Open High Low Close Value Change % Change Margin Margin (Rs.) Volume Open Interest Cng in OI (%) Prev Value(Mln) 52 Week High 52 Week Low Resistance Support Spread OCT - SEP NOV - OCT Rupee strengthen tracking a pull-back in crude oil prices overnight and receding trade tensions between the United States and China. India needs to be extremely vigilant to check weakness in the rupee and the task was to minimise volatility and avoid contagion to other macro policies, a member of the prime minister s economic advisory panel said. Prime Minister Narendra Modi is set to meet officials on Saturday to decide ways to address the currency s weakness and rising fuel prices, though it was unclear whether the panel or any of its members would attend. Despite strong economic growth, the rupee has weakened more than 11 percent to become Asia s worst performing currency this year, as India s current account deficit widened, and balance of payments moved into the red as a consequence of higher oil global prices and an emerging markets sell-off that has seen portfolio inflows dwindle. Finance ministry officials said reducing the fiscal deficit may be difficult as India heads into election year, but the government could consider raising import duties on some electronic items and ease rules for foreign investors. India s retail inflation fell below the Reserve Bank of India s medium-term target in August, increasing the likelihood it will keep interest rates on hold in October after raising them at its past two meetings. Consumer prices rose 3.69 percent from a year earlier, down from July s 4.17 percent, the Statistics Ministry said. Technically now USDINR is getting support at and below same could see a test of level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at , a move above could see prices testing Page 4

5 Gold Spot 995 Gold Spot 999 Exch. Descr. Last* Exch. Descr. Last* CMDTY Gold Ahmedabad CMDTY Gold Ahmedabad CMDTY Gold Bangalore CMDTY Gold Bangalore CMDTY Gold Chennai CMDTY Gold Chennai CMDTY Gold Cochin CMDTY Gold Cochin CMDTY Gold Delhi CMDTY Gold Delhi CMDTY Gold Hyderabad CMDTY Gold Hyderabad CMDTY Gold Jaipur CMDTY Gold Jaipur CMDTY Gold Kolkata CMDTY Gold Mumbai CMDTY Gold Mumbai * Rates including GST * Rates including GST Silver Spot 999 Bullion Futures on MCX Exch. Descr. Last* Exch. Descr. Last CMDTY Silver Ahmedabad MCX GOLD 04AUG CMDTY Silver Bangalore MCX GOLD 05OCT CMDTY Silver Chennai MCX GOLD 05DEC CMDTY Silver Delhi MCX SILVER 05JUL CMDTY Silver Hyderabad MCX SILVER 05SEP CMDTY Silver Jaipur MCX SILVER 05DEC CMDTY Silver Kolkata CMDTY Silver Mumbai * Rates including GST Bullion Futures on DGCX Gold and Silver Fix Exch. Descr. Last Exch. Descr. Last DGCX GOLD 26SEP CMDTY Gold London AM FIX DGCX GOLD 28NOV CMDTY Gold London PM FIX DGCX GOLD QUANTO 27SEP CMDTY Silver London FIX DGCX GOLD QUANTO 29NOV DGCX SILVER 28NOV Gold / Silver Ratio DGCX SILVER 26FEB Exch. Descr. Last DGCX SILVER QUANTO 29NOV INTL. SPOT GOLD SILVER RATIO MCX MCX GOLD SILVER RATIO Page 5

6 Report is prepared for information purposes only. Kedia Stocks & Commodities Research Pvt Ltd. Mumbai. INDIA. Mobile: / info@kediacommodity.com URL: General Disclaimers: This Report is prepared and distributed by Kedia Stocks & Commodities Research Pvt Ltd. for information purposes only. The recommendations, if any, made herein are expression of views and/or opinions and should not be deemed or construed to be neither advice for the purpose of purchase or sale through KSCRPL nor any solicitation or offering of any investment /trading opportuni. These information / opinions / views are not meant to serve as a professional investment guide for the readers. No action is solicited based upon the information provided herein. Recipients of this Report should rely on information/data arising out of their own investigations. Readers are advised to seek independent professional advice and arrive at an informed trading/investment decision before executing any trades or making any investments. This Report has been prepared on the basis of publicly available information, internally developed data and other sources believed by KSCRPL to be reliable. IBJA and KSCRPL or its directors, employees, affiliates or representatives do not assume any responsibility for, or warrant the accuracy, completeness, adequacy and reliability of such information / opinions / views. While due care has been taken to ensure that the disclosures and opinions given are fair and reasonable, none of the directors, employees, affiliates or representatives of IBJA and KSCRPL shall be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental, consequential, punitive or exemplary damages, including lost profits arising in any way whatsoever from the information / opinions / views contained in this Report. The possession, circulation and/or distribution of this Report may be restricted or regulated in certain jurisdictions by appropriate laws. No action has been or will be taken by KSCRPL in any jurisdiction (other than India), where any action for such purpose(s) is required. Accordingly, this Report shall not be possessed, circulated and/ or distributed in any such country or jurisdiction unless such action is in compliance with all applicable laws and regulations of such country or jurisdiction. KSCRPL requires such recipient to inform himself about and to observe any restrictions at his own expense, without any liability to KSCRPL. Any dispute arising out of this Report shall be subject to the exclusive jurisdiction of the Courts in India. Page 6