Global Investment Outlook Russ Koesterich, CFA Managing Director, Global Allocation
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1 Global Investment Outlook Russ Koesterich, CFA Managing Director, Global Allocation 6
2 Asset performance YTD Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream, BlackRock Investment Institute. Apr, 6 Note: Total return in local currency except currencies, gold and copper which are spot returns. Government Bonds are ten year benchmark issues
3 Index Level Inflation Low growth, but no recession Manufacturing bottoming Global Manufacturing Activity, -6 6 Inflation on the horizon U.S. Core and Breakeven Inflation, China US Eurozone BlackRock Investment Institute, Institute for Supply Management and Markit, April 6. Notes: The lines show purchasing managers' index levels. A value above 5 indicates expansion, while below 5 indicates contraction Breakeven Core CPI Core PCE Sources: BlackRock Investment Institute, U.S. Federal Reserve and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, April 6. Notes: Core consumer price index (CPI) inflation and core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation exclude food and energy prices. The five-year breakeven inflation rate is the difference between the nominal yield on five-year U.S. Treasuries and that on five-year Treasury Inflation Protected Securities. Breakeven inflation rates briefly fell below zero during the financial crisis; this has been excluded from the chart.
4 Trillion, $ Total Return (%) Theme : Low returns ahead Negative rates driven down expected returns Government Bonds with Negative Yields, -6 Equity returns have borrowed from the future Global Equity Returns by Source, Swiss National Bank adopts negative rates ECB Cuts Rates Further Below Zero BoJ adopts negative rates 5 - ECB adopts negative rates - Jun Dec Jun 5 Dec 5 Japan Germany France Other Total Dividends Earnings Multiple Expansion Total Return Sources: BlackRock Investment Institute, J.P. Morgan and Thomson Reuters, April 6. Sources: BlackRock Investment Institute, MSCI and Thomson Reuters, April 6. Notes: Global equities are based on the MSCI All-Country World index. Earnings growth is based on aggregate -month forward earnings forecasts. Multiple expansion is represented by the share of return not explained by earnings growth or dividends. The 6 returns are for the first quarter only.
5 YIELD Index Theme : Divergence is slowing Policy divergence has been material Two-Year Government Bond Yields, -6 but is now waning shown by easing of dollar strength U.S Dollar Index, Fed Ends QE 8 Bernanke 'Taper' Speech Fed Raises Rates BoJ Cuts Rates Below Zero ECB Announces QE US Germany Japan Sources: BlackRock Investment Institute and Thomson Reuters, April 6. Notes: QE stands for quantitative easing. BoJ stands for Bank of Japan. ECB stands for European Central Bank. BlackRock Investment Institute and Thomson Reuters, April 6. The chart shows the DXY Dollar Index. The lines have been rebased to at January,. 5
6 Score Dispersion Theme : More volatility and dispersion Unwinding of crowded positions has led to significant return dispersion across major markets Crowded Positions, -6 Market dispersion creates opportunities Cross-Sectional Global Equity Return Dispersion, % QE QE QE.5 % % Jul Jan Jul Jan 5 Jul 5 Jan 6 6% -Year Average U.S. Dollar Emerging Markets Commodities % 8 6 Source: BII April 6, RQA Analysis. Data are based on BlackRock analysis of portfolio flows, reported positions by fund managers and price momentum. A positive score means investors are overweight the asset class; a negative score indicates the reverse. The emerging markets line is based on an average of emerging market currency and equities positioning. Commodities are based on an average of energy and industrial metals. BlackRock Investment Institute and MSCI, April 6. Cross-sectional return dispersion is the standard deviation of monthly returns of individual securities within the MSCI World Index. QE refers to the U.S. Federal Reserve's quantitative easing programs. 6
7 Change (billions) Total (trillions) Perhaps EM risk is overestimated Devaluations fears diminished, but watch reserves Many EM currencies have potential to rebound in a more favorable dollar environment Chinese Foreign Exchange Reserves, 6-6 Emerging Market Currency Declines: Current vs. Asia Crisis Won 5 Rupee Zloty Rupiah -5 Peso Lira Rand Real Monthly Change Total Reserves Ruble -% -75% -5% -5% % Since Asia Crisis BlackRock Investment Institute, People's Bank of China and Thomson Reuters, April 6. BlackRock Investment Institute and Thomson Reuters, April 6. The chart shows the peak-to-trough decline in currency value versus the U.S. dollar during the Asia crisis (996-), compared with the decline from the peak value since the start of to today. 7
8 Yield Yield (%) Sovereigns: Expensive but effective diversifiers ECB will continue to drive compression -Year Government Bond Yields, 5-6 Municipal bonds can potentially offer attractive risk adjusted return Fixed Income Yields and Volatility by Sector, 6 8 High Yield 6 Jan 5 Apr 5 Jul 5 Oct 5 Jan 6 Apr 6 Germany U.S. Italy Spain Portugal BlackRock Investment Institute and Thomson Reuters, April 6. Yield Tax-Adjusted Yield Volatility BlackRock Investment Institute, Barclays, JP Morgan and S&P, April 6. Volatility is based on annualized standard deviation of daily total returns over the last three years. The tax-adjusted yield for municipal bonds is based on a.% overall tax rate. All data are based on Barclays indexes except for emerging markets (JP Morgan EMBI Diversified Index) and municipal high yield (S&P Municipal Bond High Yield ex Puerto Rico Index). 8
9 U.S Euro U.K. Japan U.S Euro U.K. Japan U.S. Euro U.K. U.S. Euro U.S. Dollar Local U.S. Euro U.K. Japan Emerging Yield (%) Net Debt to EBITDA (6=) Credit: You are being paid to take credit risk Attractive credit Selected Asset Yields: Current vs Pre-Crisis. 7.5 Leverage rising Net Debt to EBITDA for U.S. and Eurozone Equities, Cash -Year Government Bonds Investment Grade High Yield EM Debt Equity Earnings Yield Current U.S. Eurozone Sources: BlackRock Investment Institute, Thomson Reuters, Bank of America Merrill Lynch, J.P. Morgan and MSCI, April 6. Cash is based on one-month interbank rates. Corporate bonds are based on Bank of America Merrill Lynch index yields; U.S. dollar emerging debt is based on the J.P. Morgan EMBI; local emerging market debt is based on the J.P. Morgan GBI-EM. The equity earnings yield is based on the inverse of the - month forward P/E ratio for MSCI indexes. Sources: BlackRock Investment Institute and Thomson Reuters, April 6. The chart shows the ratios of net debt to -month forward EBITDA for U.S. and Eurozone Datastream Total Market Index excluding financials. The ratios are rebased to at the start of 6. 9
10 Yield (%) Index Equities: There is some value here The Case for Equities Rediscovering Value Equity Dividend Yield vs. Government Bond Yields. Value Equities Relative to Overall Market, Equity Dividend Yield -Year Government Bond Yield U.S. Europe Sources: BlackRock Investment Institute, MSCI and Thomson Reuters, April 6 Chart shows largest 8 developed equity markets based on MSCI market capitalization. BlackRock Investment Institute and MSCI, April 6. The lines show the MSCI value indexes divided by their respective total market indexes, rebased to as of January. For example, the purple line shows the MSCI Europe Value Index relative to the MSCI Europe Index.
11 Important Information This material is part of a series prepared by the BlackRock Investment Institute and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of April 6 and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this paper are derived from proprietary and nonproprietary sources deemed by BlackRock to be reliable, are not necessarily allinclusive and are not guaranteed as to accuracy. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by BlackRock, its officers, employees or agents. This paper may contain forward-looking information that is not purely historical in nature. Such information may include, among other things, projections and forecasts. There is no guarantee that any forecasts made will come to pass. Reliance upon information in this paper is at the sole discretion of the reader. In the EU issued by BlackRock Investment Management (UK) Limited (authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority). Registered office: Throgmorton Avenue, London, ECN DL. Registered in England No. 9. Tel: 77. For your protection, telephone calls are usually recorded. BlackRock is a trading name of BlackRock Investment Management (UK) Limited. This material is for distribution to Professional Clients (as defined by the FCA Rules) and Qualified Investors and should not be relied upon by any other persons. For qualified investors in Switzerland: this document shall be exclusively made available to, and directed at, qualified investors as defined in the Swiss Collective Investment Schemes Act of June 6, as amended. Issued in Australia and New Zealand by BlackRock Investment Management (Australia) Limited ABN AFSL 5(BIMAL). This document contains general information only and is not personal advice. The material is provided for wholesale clients only, and is not intended for retail clients (as those terms are defined in the New Zealand Financial Advisers Act 8 or Australian Corporations Act). This document has been prepared without taking into account any person s objectives, financial situation or needs. Before making any investment decision based on this document, a person should assess whether the information is appropriate having regard to the person s objectives, financial situation and needs. A person should consult their financial, tax, legal, accounting or other professional advisor about the points raised in this document. 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This material is intended for information purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell in any securities, BlackRock funds or any investment strategy nor shall any securities be offered or sold to any person in any jurisdiction in which an offer, solicitation, purchase or sale would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction. Not approved for distribution in Japan. In Taiwan, Independently operated by BlackRock Investment Management (Taiwan) Limited. Address: 8/F, No. 95, Tun Hwa South Road, Section, Taipei 6, Taiwan. Tel: ()66. In Canada, this material is intended for permitted clients only. In Latin America and Iberia: this material is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice nor an offer or solicitation to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any shares of any Fund (nor shall any such shares be offered or sold to any person) in any jurisdiction in which an offer, solicitation, purchase or sale would be unlawful under the securities law of that jurisdiction. If any funds are mentioned or inferred to in this material, it is possible that some or all of the funds have not been registered with the securities regulator of Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Panama, Peru, Portugal, Spain, Uruguay or any other securities regulator in any Latin American country and thus might not be publicly offered within any such country. The securities regulators of such countries have not confirmed the accuracy of any information contained herein. The information provided here is neither tax nor legal advice. Investors should speak to their tax professional for specific information regarding their tax situation. Investment involves risk. The two main risks related to fixed income investing are interest rate risk and credit risk. Typically, when interest rates rise, there is a corresponding decline in the market value of bonds. Credit risk refers to the possibility that the issuer of the bond will not be able to make principal and interest payments. International investing involves risks, including risks related to foreign currency, limited liquidity, less government regulation, and the possibility of substantial volatility due to adverse political, economic or other developments. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging/developing markets or smaller capital markets. 6 BlackRock, Inc. All Rights Reserved. BLACKROCK is a registered trademark of BlackRock, Inc. All other trademarks are those of their respective owners.
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