European Equity Update

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1 European Equity Update Matt Williams, Director, European Equities May 2017

2 Flow as a % of AUM Yield spread European equities are not popular Positioning Significant outflows from the region... driven by anxiety around political risk 30% 35 French political risk premium 20% 25 10% 15 0% 5-10% -5-20% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 17 Feb US UK Eurozone Japan EM But fundamentals are stronger 10-year zero-coupon yield spread: France vs a basket made of 75% Germany, 14% Spain and 11% Italy Source: Bloomberg, JPMorgan, 1 February Data representation and based on the 25 biggest ETF's with a mandate to invest in a particular region. Source: Kepler Cheuvreux March

3 European political landscape Earnings UK: article 50 triggered in March 17 France: Presidential Election May, 2017 Germany: General Election September, 2017 Political uncertainty to remain in

4 01/ / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /20 05/20 09/20 01/2017 Index Index 2017: strong start to the year Macro Global Manufacturing PMIs 60 European Manufacturing PMIs US China Eurozone Germany France Italy Spain UK Solid economic activity across all regions Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream, BlackRock Investment Institute, March Note: Purchasing Manager s Indexes (PMI) are economic indicators derived from monthly surveys of private sector companies. A number of 50 indicates an improvement while anything below 50 suggests a decline. 4

5 Employment (%) Annual Change (%) Labour market and credit growth are healing Macro Year-over Year Changes in Employment 2001 through 20* Eurozone Loans to Private Sector (2) 5 (4) (6) 0 (8) European Union U.S. Private Sector Households Non-Financial Corporates Europe s recovery is on track Source: Empirical Research. European Central Bank, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Empirical Research Partners Analysis.*Data for the European Union through Q3 20. March Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream, Local Statistics Agencies and BlackRock investment Institute. March

6 1Q '09 2Q '09 3Q '09 4Q '09 1Q '10 2Q '10 3Q '10 4Q '10 1Q '11 2Q '11 3Q '11 4Q '11 1Q '12 2Q '12 3Q '12 4Q '12 1Q '13 2Q '13 3Q '13 4Q '13 1Q '14 2Q '14 3Q '14 4Q '14 1Q '15 2Q '15 3Q '15 4Q '15 1Q ' 2Q ' 3Q ' 4Q ' European Sales Growth, y/y EBITDA Margin (%) Activity and pricing Earnings Europe Sales growth, % year on year 15% European margins 19% 10% 5% 0% 19% 18% -5% 18% -10% -15% -20% 17% 17% MSCI Europe EBITDA margin - ex Financials Median will help corporate margins to rebound Source: JPMorgan 31 March Source: JPMorgan, 31 March

7 Earnings revisions ratio EPS growth (%) European Earnings are turning positive Earnings Earning revison ratio in Europe Quarterly Eurozone EPS growth since Q % % 10% 0% 8% 1% 1% 12% 18% 13% 8% 9% 4% 4% 1% 12% % -20% -12% -14% -4% -10% -5% -14% -4% % -33% -40% 1Q '12 3Q '12 1Q '13 3Q '13 1Q '14 3Q '14 1Q '15 3Q '15 1Q ' 3Q ' Europe 9-wk avg Euro Stoxx EPS Growth, %yoy Earnings revisions the strongest in 5 years Source: Barclays Research, DataStream, MSCI, IBES. 31 March Source: JPMorgan, March

8 02/01/ /02/ /03/ /04/ /05/ /06/ /07/ /08/ /09/ /10/ /11/ /12/ /01/ /02/ /03/ /04/ /05/ /06/ /07/ /08/ /09/ /10/ /11/ /12/ /01/20 02/02/20 02/03/20 02/04/20 02/05/20 02/06/20 02/07/20 02/08/20 02/09/20 02/10/20 02/11/20 02/12/20 02/01/ /02/2017 Euribor What about European Banks? Earnings 3 month Euribor futures (YE17-YE19) Euribor FY17 Euribor FY18 Euribor FY19 The outlook has improved, but rates remain low Source: Bloomberg, BlackRock, March

9 Price to Earnings Shiller P/E Yield European equities may not be cheap but are not expensive Valuation MSCI Europe: 12 month forward price to earnings Shiller P/E versus US Equities Equity, Sovereign and credit yields N12M PE Median US: Shiller's P/E = 29.8x MSCI EMU: Dividend Yield Bund 10yr yield Iboxx Euro Corp bond yield Relative valuations supportive Source: Chart 1: Morgan Stanley. 3 April Chart 2: Source: Credit Suisse- shows valuation discount of Europe versus US using Shiller PE. 31 March Chart 3: Source: Barclays, March

10 What investment opportunities are we focusing on? Global cyclicals Global cyclicals US shale capex US shale capex EM consumers EM consumers Reference to the names of each company mentioned in this communications is merely for explaining the investment strategy, and should not be construed as investment advice or investment recommendation of those companies. 10

11 Market Capitalisation BlackRock European Dynamic Fund: Overview Europe ex UK equities All Cap Style: Flexible Tracking error range: 4.0% % Driven by: rigorous process proven stock picking portfolio construction skills Performance objective: 1st quartile versus peer group over 3 and 5 years Investment Region Manager Vehicle (Domicile) Benchmark LARG E European Dynamic Europe ex UK Alister Hibbert BFM (UK) FTSE World Europe ex UK Fund size 2,206m as at 31 March 2017 MID shares SMALL Style Flexible Flexible, all-cap, high alpha product Source: BlackRock. Relevant peer group is the IMA Europe ex UK peer group of mutual funds. Target tracking error range: there is no guarantee that this will be achieved. Please refer to Morningstar disclaimer on page. 11

12 % Return BlackRock European Dynamic Fund: Performance to 31 March 2017 Performance (D Share Class, Net, GBP) YTD yr 3yr p.a. 5yr p.a. BlackRock European Dynamic Fund FTSE World Europe ex UK Inception date: 28 February Basis: D share class, fund returns in Sterling, Dealing Bid to Bid prices, net income reinvested, net of expenses. Past performance is not a guide to future performance and should not be the sole factor of consideration when selecting a product. Source: BlackRock. 12

13 Important information This material is for distribution to Professional Clients (as defined by the FCA or MiFID Rules) and Qualified Investors only and should not be relied upon by any other persons. Issued by BlackRock Investment Management (UK) Limited, authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Registered office: 12 Throgmorton Avenue, London, EC2N 2DL. Tel: Registered in England No For your protection telephone calls are usually recorded. BlackRock is a trading name of BlackRock Investment Management (UK) Limited. BGF has been registered on the official list of the Financial Supervision Commission (Komisja Nadzoru Finansowego) for distribution in Poland. Issued in Poland by the representative office BlackRock Investment Management (UK) Limited, Dubiński, Fabrycki, Jeleński i Wspólnicy Kancelaria Prawna sp.k., ul. Zielna 37, Warszawa. Paying agent in Poland is Bank Handlowy w Warszawie SA, ul. Senatorska, Warsaw, Poland. Certain funds mentioned here are registered for distribution in Spain. Additionally, certain funds are registered for distribution in Portugal. In Spain, BlackRock Global Funds (BGF) is registered with the number 140 in the Comisión Nacional del Mercado de Valores de España (CNMV) and the Prospectus for each registered fund has been registered with the CNMV. In Portugal, certain share classes of certain BGF funds are registered with the Comissão do Mercado de Valores Mobiliários (CMVM) and the Prospectus for each registered fund has been registered with the CMVM. This document contains BLACKROCK INC. products or services that might be offered directly or indirectly within the Andorran jurisdiction, and it should not be regarded as solicitation of business in any jurisdiction including the Principality of Andorra. The BlackRock Strategic Funds is domiciled in Luxembourg. BlackRock Asset Management Schweiz AG, Bahnhofstrasse 39, CH-8001 Zurich, is the Swiss Representative and State Street Bank International GmbH, Munich, Zurich Branch, Beethovenstrasse 19, CH-8002 Zürich, the Swiss Paying Agent. The Prospectus, Key Investor Information Document, the Articles of Incorporation, the latest and any previous annual and semi-annual reports are available free of charge from the Swiss representative. Investors should read the fund specific risks in the Key Investor Information Document and the Prospectus. Investment involves risks. Past performance is not a guide to future performance and should not be the sole factor of consideration when selecting a product. All financial investments involve an element of risk. Therefore, the value of your investment and the income from it will vary and your initial investment amount cannot be guaranteed. Investors may not get back the amount they invest. Changes in the rates of exchange between currencies may cause the value of investments to go up and down. Fluctuation may be particularly marked in the case of a higher volatility fund and the value of an investment may fall suddenly and substantially. Levels and basis of taxation may change from time to time. 13

14 Important information Fund Risks Exchange rate risk = The fund invests a large portion of assets which are denominated in other currencies; hence changes in the relevant exchange rate will affect the value of the investment. Capital growth / income variation = Investors in this Fund should understand that capital growth is not a priority and values may fluctuate and the level of income may vary from time to time and is not guaranteed. Any research in this document has been procured and may have been acted on by BlackRock for its own purpose. The results of such research are being made available only incidentally. The views expressed do not constitute investment or any other advice and are subject to change. They do not necessarily reflect the views of any company in the BlackRock Group or any part thereof and no assurances are made as to their accuracy. This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute an offer or invitation to anyone to invest in any BlackRock funds and has not been prepared in connection with any such offer BlackRock, Inc. All Rights reserved. BLACKROCK, BLACKROCK SOLUTIONS, ishares, BUILD ON BLACKROCK, SO WHAT DO I DO WITH MY MONEY and the stylized i logo are registered and unregistered trademarks of BlackRock, Inc. or its subsidiaries in the United States and elsewhere. All other trademarks are those of their respective owners Morningstar. All Rights Reserved. The information, data, analyses, and opinions contained herein (1) include the proprietary information of Morningstar, (2) may not be copied or redistributed, (3) do not constitute investment advice offered by Morningstar, (4) are provided solely for informational purposes and therefore are not an offer to buy or sell a security, and (5) are not warranted to be correct, complete, or accurate. Morningstar shall not be responsible for any trading decisions, damages, or other losses resulting from, or related to, this information, data, analyses, or opinions or their use. The Morningstar Analyst Rating is subjective in nature and reflects Morningstar s current expectations of future events/behaviour as they relate to a particular fund. Because such events/behaviour may turn out to be different than expected, Morningstar does not guarantee that a fund will perform in line with its Morningstar Analyst Rating. Likewise, the Morningstar Analyst Rating should not be seen as any sort of guarantee or assessment of the creditworthiness of a fund or of its underlying securities and should not be used as the sole basis for making any investment decision 14

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