Market Correlations: Trade-Weighted Dollar
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1 Market Correlations: Trade-Weighted Dollar March 11, 218 Dr. Edward Yardeni Joe Abbott Mali Quintana Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box
2 Table Of Contents Table Of Contents TWD & Commodities 1 TWD & EM MSCI 2 TWD & Inflation 3 TWD & Profits 4 TWD & Expected Inflation 5 Gold, Crude Oil, & Trade-Weighted Dollar 6 March 11, 218 / Market Correlations: Trade-Weighted Dollar www.
3 TWD & Commodities 8 Figure 1. INDUSTRIALS COMMODITY PRICE INDEX & TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR CRB Raw Industrials Spot Price Index* (1967=1) 1 15 * * Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow. * Ukraine, Uruguay, Venezuela, Vietnam, and United States. Source: Commodity Research Bureau and JP Morgan Figure 2. BRENT CRUDE OIL PRICE & TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR Brent Crude Oil Futures Price* (dollars per barrel) * * Nearby futures price. * Ukraine, Uruguay, Venezuela, Vietnam, and United States. Source: JP Morgan and Haver Analytics. Page 1 / March 11, 218 / Market Correlations: Trade-Weighted Dollar www.
4 85 9 Figure 3. TWD & EM MSCI EMERGING MARKETS MSCI STOCK PRICE INDEX & TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR Emerging Markets MSCI Stock Price Index (in dollars) Ukraine, Uruguay, Venezuela, Vietnam, and United States. Source: JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley Capital International. Figure 4. EMERGING MARKETS MSCI STOCK PRICE INDEX & TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR Emerging Markets MSCI Stock Price Index (in local currencies) Ukraine, Uruguay, Venezuela, Vietnam, and United States. Source: JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley Capital International. Page 2 / March 11, 218 / Market Correlations: Trade-Weighted Dollar www.
5 4. Figure 5. INFLATION & TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR TWD & Inflation PCED: Total Ex Food & Energy (yearly percent change) Jan Ukraine, Uruguay, Venezuela, Vietnam, and United States. Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis and JP Morgan. Figure 6. US IMPORT PRICES & TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR (113.9) Import Price Index: Nonpetroleum Imports (yearly percent change) (1.9) Jan Ukraine, Uruguay, Venezuela, Vietnam, and United States. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and JP Morgan. Page 3 / March 11, 218 / Market Correlations: Trade-Weighted Dollar www.
6 Figure 7. S&P 5 REVENUES PER SHARE & US TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR (yearly percent change) Broad Effective Exchange Rate (-7.7) TWD & Profits S&P 5 Revenues (using dollars per share) (9.4) * Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Ecuador, Egypt, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Hungary, Japan, India, Indonesia, Israel, Italy, Korea, Kuwait, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Pakistan, Panama, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Romania, Russia Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, United Kingdom, Ukraine, Uruguay, Venezuela, Vietnam, and United States. Source: JP Morgan and Standard & Poor s. Figure 8. S&P 5 FORWARD EARNINGS & US TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR (yearly percent change) (-7.7) S&P 5 Forward Earnings** (2.1) Ukraine, Uruguay, Venezuela, Vietnam, and United States. ** Time-weighted average of consensus estimates for current and next year. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and JP Morgan. Page 4 / March 11, 218 / Market Correlations: Trade-Weighted Dollar www.
7 Figure 9. TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR & EXPECTED INFLATION TWD & Expected Inflation * Expected Inflation in 1-Year TIPS* * Yield spread between 1-year US Treasury bond and comparable TIPS. * Ukraine, Uruguay, Venezuela, Vietnam, and United States. Source: Commodity Research Bureau and JP Morgan. Page 5 / March 11, 218 / Market Correlations: Trade-Weighted Dollar www.
8 15 Figure 1. Gold, Crude Oil, & Trade-Weighted Dollar GOLD PRICE & WEST TEXAS INTERMEDIATE CRUDE OIL PRICE 2 Gold Price* (dollars per ounce) 15 1 West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Price (dollars per barrel) * Cash price. London gold bullion, PM Fix. Source: Haver Analytics. 2 Figure 11. GOLD PRICE & FED S TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR INDEX Gold Price* (dollars per ounce) 14 Fed s Major Trade-Weighted Dollar Index** (March 1973=1) / * Cash price. London gold bullion, PM Fix. ** Index is the weighted average of the foreign exchange rates of the US dollar against the Euro Area, Canada, Japan, United Kingdom, Switzerland, Australia, and Sweden. The Euro Area includes Germany, France, Italy, Netherlands, Belgium/Luxembourg, Ireland, Spain, Austria, Finland, Portugal, & Greece. Source: Haver Analytics. Page 6 / March 11, 218 / Market Correlations: Trade-Weighted Dollar www.
9 Copyright (c) 218. All rights reserved. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily complete and its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness, or correctness of the information and opinions contained herein. The views and the other information provided are subject to change without notice. All reports posted on blog., and YRI s Apps for ipads and iphones are issued without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any specific recipient and are not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or related financial instruments. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future results. Company fundamentals and earnings may be mentioned occasionally, but should not be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold the company s stock. Predictions, forecasts, and estimates for any and all markets should not be construed as recommendations to buy, sell, or hold any security--including mutual funds, futures contracts, and exchange traded funds, or any similar instruments. The text, images, and other materials contained or displayed on any product, service, report, or website are proprietary to and constitute valuable intellectual property. No material from any part of blog., and YRI s Apps for ipads and iphones may be downloaded, transmitted, broadcast, transferred, assigned, reproduced or in any other way used or otherwise disseminated in any form to any person or entity, without the explicit written consent of All unauthorized reproduction or other use of material from Yardeni Research, Inc. shall be deemed willful infringement(s) of this copyright and other proprietary and intellectual property rights, including but not limited to, rights of privacy. Yardeni Research, Inc. expressly reserves all rights in connection with its intellectual property, including without limitation the right to block the transfer of its products and services and/or to track usage thereof, through electronic tracking technology, and all other lawful means, now known or hereafter devised. reserves the right, without further notice, to pursue to the fullest extent allowed by the law any and all criminal and civil remedies for the violation of its rights. The recipient should check any and any attachments for the presence of viruses. accepts no liability for any damage caused by any virus transmitted by this company s s, website, blog and Apps. Additional information available on request. requests@
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