Full year 2012 results. Analyst meeting Brussels, 01 March 2013

Transcription

1 Full year 2012 results Analyst meeting Brussels, 01 March 2013

2 Disclaimer This presentation is only provided for general information purpose about Elia and its activities. The included statements are neither reported results nor other historical information. They are not provided to serve as the basis for any evaluation of Elia, and cannot be binding and/or enforceable upon Elia. As forward-looking statements, they are subject to assumptions, risk and uncertainties, actual future results may differ from those expressed in or implied by such statements. Although Elia uses reasonable cares to present information which is up-todate to the best of Elia's knowledge, Elia makes no representation or warranty whatsoever as to the adequacy, accuracy, completeness or correctness of such information. Elia will not be liable for any consequences arising from or related to the use or interpretation of the information contained or absent in this presentation. 2

3 Agenda Key highlights Operational results Financial results Outlook

4 Agenda Key highlights Operational results Financial results Outlook

5 Key highlights Operational Elia & 50Hertz certified as fully unbundled transmission system operators Full realization of investment plan in both countries Smooth transition new CEO Elia Group Continuity of supply maintained during winter season in both areas Financial Good results for the Group: Significant increase results 50Hz transmission Lower results for Elia transmission due to historical low Belgian OLO Proposed dividend of 1,47 per share Outlook Investment program for the Elia Group Evolution of the Belgian tariffs 5

6 Agenda Key highlights Operational results Financial results Outlook

7 TWh TWh Energy Consumption Elia s network: 81.7 TWh (83,4TWh) Mild weather Decentralised generation 9,0 8,0 7,0 6,0 5,0 4,0 3,0 2,0 1,0 0,0 jan feb mar apr may june july aug sep oct nov dec ,0 5,0 4,0 3,0 2,0 1,0 50Hertz s network: 58.2 TWh (59.0 TWh) Mild weather Decentralised generation Renewables 0,0 jan feb mar apr may june july aug sep oct nov dec (1) The Elia consumption indicator covers the majority of electricity consumption. It includes all production directly connected to the Elia grid plus net import-export balance 7

8 Elia Group Steady increase of import - export 10,7 TWh Netherlands Denmark 3,1 TWh 0,6 TWh 12,5 TWh 0,1 TWh Hamburg Berlin Poland 29,4 TWh 6,0 TWh 4,7 TWh France 14,7 TWh 2,9 TWh Luxembourg 2,2 TWh 11,3 TWh 0,8 TWh 2,6 TWh Czech Republik Elia-TSO: imports due to outage of nuclear plants 50Hertz: exports due to increasing RES share 8

9 Elia-TSO: measures for winter season Winter outlook ENTSOE Moderate risk of power scarcity: major cold snap across the entire continent, combined with no wind or solar power ELIA - TSO Belgium structurally dependent on imports Elia grid enables imports up to 3500 MW Preventive measures Increase of the available commercial capacity Consolidation for cross-border reserve energy Web indicator for balance between supply and demand Load shedding plan in case of power scarcity 9

10 Elia Group: Investments Elia-TSO : m Main drivers are replacements and internal consumption Renewables & new plants 9% Non electrical 16% Replacements 47% Reliability: 99,999% Internal consumption 28% 50Hertz : m (of which 60% for Elia) Onshore : 143,5 m Offshore : 109,9 m Mainly for RES integration Reliability: 1,2 incidents per 100km Renewables & new plants Non electrical 90% 4% Replacements 4% 2% Internal consumption 10

11 Elia-TSO: Major investments STEVIN BRABO NEMO ALEGRO OFFSHORE Offshore wind transportation to demand centers Onshore RES integration UK interconnection (NEMO) Enhanced reliability Reinforcement around port of Antwerp Increased capacity with the Netherlands Enhanced reliability Support from Flemish Government UK interconnection Increase of Market liquidity Enhanced reliability and security of supply Commissioning HVDC interconnection with Germany Increase of Market liquidity Enhanced reliability and security of supply Commissioning Connection of wind farms Lower cost and higher reliability Jointly contemplated by developers & public authorities Approved by Secretary of State 11

12 50Hertz: Major investments BALTIC 2 SOUTHWEST- KOPPELLINE BARWALDE - SCHMOLLN UCKERMARKLINE NORTHLINE Connection 288 MW offshore wind park 3 cables, spanning 120km offshore and 16 km onshore Vieselbach Altenfeld : in construction Altenfeld Redwitz: Plan approval in preparation Plan approval ongoing Public inquiry concluded Decision expected 1st quarter 2013 Plan approval procedure ongoing, Decision expected 3rd quarter 2013 Inauguration by Chancelor Angela Merkel on December 18th Finalization 2013 Route planning and underground cable study ongoing 12

13 Among the lowest tariffs in Europe 30 Components of TSO transmission tariffs 2012 (EUR per MWh) AT BE BH BG HR CZ DK EE FI FR DE UK GR HU IE IT LV LT LU NL NI NO PL PT RO RS SK SI ES SE CH Infrastructure System Services Losses Other regulatory charges 13

14 Agenda Key highlights Operational results Financial results Outlook

15 Segment reporting Elia & 50Hertz Transmission Economic entity Elia System Operator NV Elia Asset NV 100% Elia Engineering 100% Elia Re 100% CASC 8,33% HGRT 24,5% Coreso 22,49% APX -Endex 23,07% Eurogrid GmbH 100% Eurogrid International CVBA 60% Gridlab GmbH 100% E offshore A LLC 100% No major changes in the group structure CAO 12,5% Coreso 10,0% EMCC 20% 50Hertz Transmission 100% 50 Hertz Offshore 100% Atlantic Grid Investment A Inc 100% Atlantic Grid A Interm. Holdco 10% Atlantic Grid A Operational Holdco 15

16 Consolidated key figures Elia Group 2012 FY 2012 FY 2011 Change Total revenues 1.306, ,4 2,2% EBITDA 455,5 448,9 1,5% 2012 Net profit 2011 (R)EBIT 305,4 308,0-0,8% Finance result (134,8) (128,6) 4,8% 42% 58% 23% 77% Taxes (16,2) (43,3) -62,6% Net profit 155,0 137,5 12,7% Elia Transmission (BE) 50Hz Transmission (GE) Increased net profit of Elia Group (+12,7%) Historical low Belgium OLO = decrease for Elia-TSO (-15,6%) Improved regulation in Germany = major increase for 50Hz (+106,9%) 50 Hz Transmission contributed for 42% in 2012 results (23% in 2011) 16

17 Elia Transmission 2012 Key figures FY 2012 FY 2011 Change Total revenues 770,1 801,8-4,0% EBITDA 291,6 354,0-17,6% EBIT 188,6 251,7-25,1% Finance result (117,5) (117,6) -0,1% Taxes 17,5 (29,8) -158,7% Net profit 89,2 105,7-15,6% 110,0 105,0 100,0 95,0 90,0 85,0 80,0 Strong correlation net profit and OLO 4,21% Net profit 3,44% OLO 2,98% FY 2010 FY 2011 FY 2012 TOTAL REVENUES -4,0% New tariffs ( ): fixed tariffs include 4 year inflation One-off impact of (- 39,0m) due to deferred tax asset (IFRS only) TAXES -158,7% One-off recording of deferred tax asset (IFRS only), due to notional interest, amounting to 39,0m, to be returned to future tariffs NET PROFIT -15,6% Historical low 10y Belgian bund (OLO) impacted negatively profit Incentive regulation achieved Lower IFRS adjustments 17

18 Elia Transmission net profit Net profit evolution ,2 2,6 1,9 3,8 7,3 4,5 2,8 1,6 105,7 89,2 FY 2011 Lower OLO Goodwill Incentive Y1 Incentive Y2 Customer contributions (IFRIC 18) Employee benefits Other IFRS adjustments Review CREG 2011 FY

19 Non controllable costs Budget = 436,3 Non controllable revenues Budget = 675,6 Tariffs Shortages / Surpluses 2012 & Cumulative Overview surplus/shortage 2012 Total amount to be included in future tariffs Injection Load Asset Asset Liability -17,2 13,9 Period Asset -9,3 Liability Imbalance -7,9 Subtotal -11,1 Year ,3 Cross border Other -2,6 10,3 Total BE gaap 61,0 Subtotal 7,7 IFRS adjustment Tax file 31,2 Ancillary services Financial result 8,3 16,2 IFRS adjustment Not. Intrest 39,0 Income taxes Other -5,9 1,0 Total IFRS 131,2 Subtotal 19,6 Net profit 10,8 Operational Total 27,0 Flat tariff 43,3 (-) : Asset: shortage to be recovered in future tariffs (+) : Liability: surplus to be reimbursed to future tariffs 19

20 50Hz Transmission 2012 Key figures FY 2012 FY 2011 Change Total revenues 539,4 477,7 12,9% Depreciation period of 20y for offshore Optimization of accounting standards Offshore liability EBITDA 163,9 94,9 72,7% Sector agreement Investment budget Agreement - Settlement BVD EBIT 116,8 56,3 107,5% Finance result (17,5) (10,9) 60,6% Taxes (33,6) (13,5) 148,9% Net profit 65,8 31,8 106,9% NET PROFIT +106,9% Major regulatory framework improvements Increased own work capitalized Disappearance impact one-off recordings 2011 Introduction of cost plus regulation Cost increases for system services and EEG Retroactive excess grid revenue repayment Introduction of incentive regulation (Base year 2006) ROE elevation EEG financing OPEX for investment budgets/ assets under construction New EEGmechanism Introduction of corridor model for system services ROE of 9.05 % t-0 2nd regulatory period (base year 2011 for ) 20

21 50Hertz Transmission net profit Net profit evolution ,5 4 12,9 19,4 3 33, , ,8 110,7 54,3 31/12/2011 T-0 IB onshore BVD replacement Increase result from Onshore investments Increase result from Offshore investments Negative oneoffs 2011 Own work capitalized Other Taxes 31/12/

22 Shortages / Surpluses 2012 & Cumulative Overview surplus/shortage 2012 MEA Asset -3,2 Liability Overview cumulative 31/12/2012 Asset Liability Auction revenues -2,7 Auction revenues 109,1 Volumes -35,4 Volumes 22,8 Offshore recuperation 28,9 Offshore recuperation -30,6 Korridor 9,1 Korridor -19,1 Curtailment Offshore parks -10,1 ITC 7,7 Regulatory issues Other 1,8 24,9 Curtailment Offshore parks MEA Other -10,2 29,5 23,6 Total 13,3 Total 132,8 (-) : Asset: shortage to be recovered in future tariffs (+) : Liability: surplus to be reimbursed to future tariffs 22

23 Consolidated key figures Elia Group equity Equity 34,9 34,2 33,3 2007,2 33,9 2046,9 2108,5 28,6 29, Equity Equity per share Real value 50Hz acquisition better reflected in share price, sustained by improved regulatory framework in Germany Discount to book value disappears over time 23

24 Un-used confirmed facilities Net debt Consolidated key figures Elia Group debt FY 2012 FY 2011 Net debt 2.910, ,9 Leverage (D/D+E) 57,99% 55,31% REBITDA/Gross Interest 3,08 3,17 Net debt / REBITDA 6,39 5,59 Average cost of debt 4,93% 4,89% Standard & Poor s rating Elia Group: Long Term: A- Outlook: Stable Moody s rating German segment: Long Term: Baa1 Outlook: Stable % fixed of gross debt 83,89% 83,01% Cash Elia Eurobond Shareholders' loan EIB Accrued interest Cash Eurogrid Eurogrid bonds Short term borrowings Total Revolving facility Commercial Paper 133, ,6-495, ,8-210,0-250,0-60,0-69,2 32,8-300,0-155, Maturity Credit facilities -812,2 Total ,2 Bonds Shareholders' loan EIB loans Eurogrid bonds 24

25 Dividend Policy Elia Group 1,37 1,38 1,40 1,47 1,47 63,9% 79,3% 68,4% 64,5% 57,4% Total amount paid out (m ) 65,87 66,6 84,5 88,7 89,0 Dividend Pay-out ratio Stable dividend of 1,47 per share Pay-out ratio over 2012 IFRS results amount to 57,4% (impact of 50Hertz dividend) 25

26 50Hertz acquisition case First year yield return Acquisition by Elia and IFM in 2010 Elia (Belgium) IFM Global Infrastructure Fund 100% LuxCo (Luxembourg) Acquisition price: of wich Elia of which IFM 464.6m 278.7m 185.9m 60% 278.7m 40% 185.9m Bought with a discount of about 40% to RAB Eurogrid Int (Belgium) 464.6m 100% Eurogrid GmbH (Germany) 100% 50Hertz Fiscal unity Closing: May 19th, 2010 Dividends paid out by 50Hertz to final shareholders amounts to: Total amount (*) 51,2m 60,7m of which for Elia 30.7m 36.4m of which for IFM 20,5m 24.3m Yield 11,01% 13,06% 50Hertz Offshore Other minority subsidiaries 26

27 Agenda Key highlights Operational results Financial results Outlook

28 Elia-TSO: Court of Appeal Tariffs Background As from 2012 injection tariffs were introduced Different generation owners started a legal case Decision of the court of appeal on February 6, 2012 Decision court of appeal CREG s decision on Elia-TSO s tariff has been revoked on the basis of: No legal ground for some injection tariffs Allocation of costs to injection tariffs has to be further grounded Consequences Adapted CREG decision is to be taken shortly No impact on the Elia s net profit, but adapted cost allocation to generation and consumers Temporary reallocation of working capital Next steps Elia is in close contact with CREG CREG s new decision expected in Q2 28

29 Elia Group: Investments Outlook 2013 Elia-TSO : 200 m Main drivers Replacements Renewables & new generation 8% Offshore 6% Non electrical 12% Replacements 41% Internal demand First offshore investments in the North Sea Internal consumption 33% 50Hertz : 415 m (of which 60% for Elia) Onshore : 267 m Offshore : 148 m Main drivers RES integration Renewables & new generation 86% Non electrical 7% Replacements 4% 3% Internal consumption 29

30 Elia TSO: Major projects Offshore platforms to accomodate future offshore wind parks Decentralised production Meer, Rijkevorsel, Merksplas Reinforcement North border Additional PST, second circuit Gramme-Van Eyck Project Stevin for shore reinforcement Reinforcement East loop onshore wind Project Brabo in port of Antwerp Reinforcement Baekeland-Mercator-Doel Reinforcement South border 30

31 Elia TSO: Offshore 31

32 50Hertz: Ten year Grid Plan On-shore 32

33 50Hertz: First Offshore Grid Kriegers Flak Combined Grid Solution Project of European significance Off-shore interconnection between Danish and German wind farms Blueprint for North Sea offshore grid with HVDC: ca. 600 MW, cable of 90km HVAC: ca. 400 MW, cable of 30 km Figure 1 Several added values for both countries - integration of RES - market development - secure system operation 33

34 Questions & Answers Investors Relations Contact details Mail: Website: Tom Schockaert Tel: + 32 (0)2/ Mail: tom.schockaert@elia.be 34

35 Appendices 35

36 Elia Transmission net profit Breakdown of net profit ,7m Incentive replacement capex ,2m 22,1 IFRS adjustments 3,8 12,9 6,3 0,2 Review CREG 0,7 8,2 16,2 Non regulated Belgian costs 13,5 APX and HGRT Incentive Y factor 51,6 63,8 Goodwill Fair remuneration -1,5-1,2-1,7 36

37 50Hertz Transmission net profit Breakdown of net profit Increase compared to 2011 mainly due to improved regulatory framework ,7m 44,6 15,4 15,4 36, ,3m 3,4 9,8 46,0 EuG Gmbh & EuG International IFRS adjustments Base year Other non influencable costs Corridor Model EEG Investment budgets offshore Investment budgets onshore 46,2 26,3-1,1-41,5-4,4 9,0-14,4-25,1-0,7 37

38 Investments for Germany National Grid Development Plan On-shore Necessity of most projects confirmed Proposed cooperation between 4 TSO s Doubling of the capacity for the HVDC corridor D A 1 Hamburg C1 C2 A 2 D TenneT 50Hertz Amprion TransnetBW 38