Myanmar Macro - Economic Overview July Inwa Advisers Pte Ltd. Incorporated in the Republic of Singapore. Co Reg No D.

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1 Myanmar Macro - Economic Overview July 2015

2 Contents Summary Myanmar s Strategic Advantages Myanmar s Demographic Dividend! Young and Optimistic! 2014 Census Summary Potential Technology Dividend Urbanisation A Likely Key Trend Myanmar s Stated Reform Priorities Summary of Reforms to Date! Foreign Investment Law 2012! New and Pending Legislation The Effect of the Reforms So Far Economic Overview! Economic Charts! IMF s Economic Projections (October 2014) Conclusions

3 Summary Myanmar s decision to open to the West was not taken lightly! it recognises a need to end economic underperformance vs its neighbours (eg. Vietnam)! it recognises a need for a political and economic counterweight to China Myanmar faces significant challenges:! weak infrastructure; weak institutional capacity! a need to improve education, training & skills! an undeveloped financial system Myanmar enjoys many strategic advantages:! a strategic location at the heart of Asia and at the crossroads between India and China! membership of ASEAN, as it integrates towards the ASEAN Economic Community (2015)! a growing, young and optimistic population of c.52m! wealth in resources, agriculture, land and water. The potential to be Asia s last great tourist destination Myanmar has chosen an excellent time to re-emerge! as China repositions, it is ideally placed to become SE Asia s new low-cost manufacturing base! it can learn from the example of its neighbours and reap the full benefit of the new technology dividend Myanmar has made significant progress in a short period! the future will not be entirely smooth (and some near term challenges are emerging), but! it continues to reform and it seems unlikely its opening will be reversed

4 Myanmar s Strategic Advantages (i) Rich endowment in resources, agriculture, coast (iii) Large working age population; low cost, favourable demographics (iv) Strategically located at the crossroads of India and China (v) Strong links to ASEAN Economic Community (2015) (vi) Potential technology dividend

5 Myanmar s Strategic Advantages Gas Reserves in Asia (Trillion Cubic Metres) Undiscovered Gas Resources in Asia (TCF) Total Renewable Water Resources Per Capita, 2012 Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, June 2015 Source: US Geological Survey, 2000! Gas production has risen from 13.1bcm (2013) to 16.8bcm (2014)! First production Shwe field (peak potential 500mmcfd) 2013! First production Zawtika field (expected production 300mmcfd) 2014! Thailand has planned investments of $3.3bn to 2020! 20 new exploration blocks awarded in May 2014 to companies including Shell, Conoco Philips, Total, Statoil, Chevron, ENI Source: FAO Aquastat! Myanmar has 12.6m Ha of farmland equivalent to only 18% of its land area and, of this, less than 20% is irrigated! It has and abundance of water resources (chart) and 3,000km of coastline, offering potential for aquaculture as well as tourism! Agriculture is c.44% of GDP and c.50% of jobs. Agricultural productivity of $1,300/worker is half that of Indonesia and Thailand and well below other sectors in the economy, providing substantial scope for improvement with investment and shifts in the output mix. Sources: US EIA, Oil and Gas Journal 26/3/2014 FAO, World Bank, UNDP

6 Myanmar s Strategic Advantages! Myanmar s population today is c. 51.5mn (2014 Census)! Myanmar borders countries representing c. 40% of the world s population! Neighbouring Thailand and Laos have a combined population of 75m! China s Yunnan province alone has a population of 46m! Myanmar is well positioned for the ASEAN Economic Community (2015) and for trade between ASEAN and China / India.! McKinsey thinks Myanmar will be within 5 hrs of 2.5bn consumers earning $10/day by 2025! Mandalay emerging as a second centre for trade between India and China Source: UN / China NBS / Mckinsey Global Institute, June 2013

7 Myanmar s Strategic Advantages Age Distribution in Myanmar (Thousands of Population)! Myanmar s demographic profile is like India s and one of the most advantageous in Asia Source: Union of Myanmar Census Report (Vol.2, May 2015)! 13m in 15-29yrs group (c.40% of working age population)! 25% still below working age (Thailand 20%, India 30%)! 65yrs+ only 5.8% of working age population (Thailand 12.9%, India 7.7%)! The rate of growth in the working age population will likely start to slow, but should remain positive to Sectors of the Economy by Productivity and Share of Employment Mining ($10,950, 2%) Trans/Comms ($5,000, 4%) Mftg ($5,550, 6%)! An estimated 3m-5m Myanmar people are working overseas a potential extra source of semi-skilled labour needed at home. Source for demographic data: UNESCAP / ADB! Productivity within sectors is c.50% to 70% below benchmark Asian countries. Since 1965, agriculture s share of GDP has actually risen unlike in the rest of Asia! A 15% shift in the share of employment from agriculture to manufacturing and services could drive a doubling of per capita GDP. Utilities ($3,630, 1%) Construction ($1,720, 4%) Fin Servs ($590, 0.2%) Agriculture ($1,270, 52%)! Productivity in China ( ) and Thailand ( ) grew by c.7% pa, which would be consistent with c.8% real GDP growth in Myanmar. Given the technology dividend, an opening of the economy to investment and political stability, it should be possible for Myanmar to achieve something similar given the low base from which it is starting. Source for productivity analysis: McKinsey Global Institute

8 Myanmar s Demographic Dividend 90 Developing Asia - Dependency Ratios China India Indonesia Myanmar Philippines Thailand Viet Nam Source: UN Department of Economics and Social Affairs World Population Prospects, 2012 Revision

9 Young and Optimistic Myanmar is remarkably confident about the future % of respondents Myanmar Vietnam China Indonesia India Thailand Brazil EU Russia US Japan Our generation will live a better life than that of our parents Our children will have a better life than ours Source: Boston Consulting Group. Quoted in Myanmar Asia s Uncut Gem (ANZ Research)

10 2014 Census Summary TOTAL POPULATION OF WHICH State/Region Total % Urban % Rural % Kachin 1,643 3% % 1,050 64% Kayah 287 1% 72 25% % Kayin 1,504 3% % 1,175 78% Chin 479 1% 99 21% % Sagaing 5,325 11% % 4,414 83% Tanintharyi 1,408 3% % 1,070 76% Bago 4,867 10% 1,072 22% 3,795 78% Magwe 3,917 8% % 3,329 85% Mandalay 6,166 12% 2,143 35% 4,022 65% Mon 2,054 4% % 1,482 72% Rakhaing 2,099 4% % 1,745 83% Yangon 7,361 15% 5,161 70% 2,200 30% Shan 5,824 12% 1,396 24% 4,429 76% Ayeyarwady 6,185 12% % 5,312 86% Nay Pyi Taw 1,160 2% % % TOTAL 50, % 14,875 30% 35,401 70%! Total Population 51.5mn + 0.9% pa , estimated! Literacy >15yrs: 89.5%! Transport availability: 39% M/C, 36% bicycle, 22% cart, 3% car! Improved drinking water: 69.5% of total population! Electricity for lighting: 32% of total population! Brick/concrete houses: 16% of total population! Yangon & Mandalay 27% of total population 50% of urban population Note: Tables show actual counted population. Total population includes estimates for parts of Rakhaing, Kachin and Kayin states

11 Potential Technology Dividend! Myanmar is reforming very late. It can learn from its neighbours! Myanmar is starting its development in the post-internet world! There is scope to capitalise on highly efficient digital infrastructure for! Public services: eg. education, healthcare! Private services: eg. telecoms, banking, commerce! Such infrastructure can reach into rural / remote areas, supporting inclusiveness

12 Urbanisation A Likely Key Trend! Myanmar today is a predominantly rural economy! In 2009 there were are only 4 cities with a population greater than 200,000! Only 28% of households are urban, according to the 2014 Census! Cities provide greater opportunities for people and significant economies of scale! The Ministry of of Construction targets 1m additional houses over 20 years! 2013 s construction rate was 7,000 new homes! This would have to rise to 50,000 per annum for the target to be reached! Myanmar s 50m people consume c.5mtpa of cement. (Thailand c.40mtpa)! Siam Cement is reported as forecasting 10%pa volume growth for the next 5 years and is investing $400m to $500m in the first phase of a new 1.8mt+ plant near Moulmein accordingly.

13 Myanmar s Stated Reform Priorities! Shift to a more democratic, market economy! Diversify away from agriculture to manufacturing and services! Inclusive growth for all: balance between the regions and states! Develop the private sector; liberalise inward investment from overseas! Improve quality of national statistics & data Source: U Aung Naing Oo, Director General, DICA (MIC), Singapore, May 2014

14 Summary of Reforms to Date Political / Social! Parliamentary elections. Former Military Commander U Thein Sein elected as civilian President! Aung Sang Suu Kyi and other political prisoners released! Dialogue between government and National League for Democracy (NLD). NLD participates in 2012 elections! Increased freedom for media, expression and demonstration! Ceasefire with various ethnic armies. Nationwide ceasefire negotiations Economic! Trade liberalization: - Unification of the Kyat exchange rate - SEZ Law! Investment liberalization: Foreign Investment Law 2012! Accession to NY Convention on Foreign Arbitration (April 2013)! Reforms in financial system: Central Bank Law increases CBM s autonomy; banking and insurance liberalization! Better transparency: - New senior anti-corruption committee - Commitment to join global Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI)! Successful auctions for new telecom licences and new oil and gas exploration blocks! Introduction of government bond auctions (January 2015). Myanmar has taken first steps towards seeking an international credit rating (July 2015)

15 Foreign Investment Law 2012 Legal Framework:! Increased protection against expropriation, on remittance of profits, remittance on exit! Increased scope to secure long term leases on property! Tax benefits: 5 year tax holiday, exemptions on reinvested profits, relief on profits from exports, customs duties etc.! Scope to transfer equity in an FIL company Policy Framework:! Open more sectors to foreign investment shift to a negative list from a positive list! More transparent process for tendering / receiving MIC permits Institutional Framework:! New MIC structure; majority voting for increased impartiality! Efforts to streamline approval process and co-ordination between different government ministries

16 New and Pending Legislation! New Companies Law! Companies are to be permitted up to a certain level of foreign ownership (thought likely to be 50%) and remain local. This is relevant to their participation in restricted sectors.! The requirement that at least one director be a Myanmar citizen is to be waived! Companies are to be able to grant a security interest over any of their property! New Competition Law! Establishes a regulatory body with investigative and adjudicative powers! Addresses agreements that restrain competition, abuse of dominance and mergers! Addresses unfair trade practices! Establishes a penalty regime with potential for private damages, conviction of senior managers etc.! New Foreign Investment Law, targeting:! Level playing field between foreign and Myanmar investors! Regulatory transparency / equitable treatment in accordance with international law & standards! Progressive further liberalisation of restricted sectors! Reduction in number of investments requiring MIC approval! Improved access to land under long term lease! Greater freedom to employ foreign persons in senior roles! Greater protection against appropriation on all investments! Incentives to encourage investment in certain regions / priority sectors

17 New and Pending Legislation! New Financial Institutions Law! Improves the Central Bank s powers of oversight! Raises the minimum requirement for paid-in capital for domestic banks to Kyat 20bn! Introduces statutory reserves at 50% of paid-in capital! Introduces tighter requirements for reserves to be kept at CBM! Codifies corporate governance standards etc.! Attaches new conditions to loans extended to related entities (2/3 BoD members approval, collateral requirement)! New Land Use Law! Procedures for dealing with land acquisition, objections, compensation, resettlement, livelihood restoration etc.! Procedures for securing ethnic rights / rights of original landholders! International experts, supported by the World Bank, to help the government assess policy using a framework that has previously been used in Indonesia, The Philippines, Vietnam and Cambodia.! National Minimum Wage! Government has recommended a minimum of Kyats 3,600 (USD 3.25) for an 8 hour day! To be applied on a nationwide basis, for all firms (with some small family firms excepted)! The amount to be assessed and adjusted at least once in the two years following its introduction

18 The Effect of the Reforms So Far! A relaxation in sanctions by the EU and, within certain limits, by the US! Increased international government, institutional and multilateral agency support! An acceleration in the real GDP growth rate! A clear rise in investment, foreign & domestic, and private sector business formation! Early signs of a broadening in the economy across sectors and geographies! Greater government spending on education and healthcare! A significant pick up in tourism arrivals

19 Selective Evidence of an Improvement on the Ground! Thilawa SEZ: 14m SW of Yangon. Total 2,400Ha, - first phase (400Ha, 41 units) operational by Y/E JV with Japanese and Myanmar governments and a private Japanese consortium let by Sumitomo and Mitsubishi.! Suzuki reportedly has a 20Ha site at Thilawa for a car assembly plant which is due to become operational in 2017.! Telenor & Ooredoo formed as wholly-owned operators. KDDI partners with MPT. By June 2015 (<1yr from launch) the number of subscribers had risen to c.19m. Telenor targets 90% coverage in 5 years, Ooredoo 97% by 2018.! 20 new oil and gas exploration licences awarded to international companies in March 2014, to follow 16 in October Shell, Chevron, Reliance, Statoil, ENI and BG Asia among the winning bidders. Also, a consortium led by PTT of Thailand is planning a $400mn LNG terminal in Myanmar.! New brewery JVs announced by Heineken and Carlsberg. UMEHL submitted its dispute with Fraser & Neave over their Myanmar Brewery JV to independent arbitration in Singapore, and won.! Coca Cola s plant opened in Jun 2013; plans $200m in capex and 22,000 jobs over 5 years. Unilever to add 2,000 employees by 2015 in a $670m plan. Colgate acquired Laser toothpaste for a reported $100m. KFC and Pizza Hut have formed Myanmar JV s. Capital Diamond Star Group has formed a food JV with Mitsubishi (Lluvia).! Companies within Myanmar Garment Manufacturers Association now operate 280 factories and and employ c.200,000 workers. Exports have more than doubled to $1.5bn in 3 years. Voluntary Code of Conduct established in March.! 9 foreign banks (Sumitomo-Mitsui, Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ, Mizuho Bank, OCBC, UOB, Maybank, Bangkok Bank, ANZ, ICBC) have been awarded banking licences and are now opening branches.! In the power sector, Sembcorp of Singapore (225MW), a Marubeni consortium (400MW) and Lumpoondum of Thailand (660MW) have signed MOUs for power projects / feasibility studies in recent months.! The Japanese administration has pledged $2bn in special grants and loans to Myanmar since December The ADB has received government approval to participate in private sector projects and targets $1bn in approvals through to The IFC reportedly has a potential investment pipeline of $700m-$800m.

20 Economy Some IMF Projections from October 2014 Growth up, driven by construction and services Inflation picked up to 8% in May 2015 FDI/remittances needed to offset current account deficit Revenue and expenditure up, but tax revenue remains low Source for Charts: IMF Article IV Consultation Staff Report, October 2014

21 Economy - Evidence of Increased Business Activity Domestic business picking up... as are foreign investment approvals. Source: DICA, quoted in ADB Asian Development Outlook in broader range of sectors Source: DICA. Data for 2015/16 to June 2015 only.. as are tourist arrivals and revenues Source: DICA Source: Ministry of Hotels and Tourism (incl. Border Tourism)

22 Economy - Currency and Competitiveness Labour costs the lowest in the region Reserves rising, but still below 3 months of imports Source: ANZ Research Myanmar, Asia s Uncut Gem, February 2015 Currency had appreciated materially in ( ). Source: IMF Article IV Consultation Staff Report October so CBM has been obliged to let it weaken again Source: IMF Article IV Consultation Staff Report October 2014 Source: xe.com

23 IMF s Economic Projections (October 2014) 2010/ / / / / /16 GDP ($bn) Per Capita GDP ($) Output & Prices (% YoY) Real GDP 5.3% 5.9% 7.3% 8.3% 8.5% 8.5% CPI (End Period) 8.9% - 1.1% 4.7% 6.3% 5.9% 6.7% CPI (Period Average) 8.2% 2.8% 2.8% 5.7% 6.6% 6.3% 2. Consolidated Public Sector (% GDP) Tax Revenue 3.3% 3.9% 7.1% 7.2% 7.3% 7.4% + State Economic Enterprise Receipts 7.0% 7.8% 15.3% 14.7% 14.3% 14.6% + Grants 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.4% 0.4% = Total Revenue 11.4% 12.0% 23.3% 24.8% 24.2% 24.0% - Expense - 8.8% - 9.8% % % % - 0.2% = Gross OperaXng Balance 2.6% 2.2% 6.5% 6.6% 4.3% 4.4% - Net AcquisiXon of Non- Financial Assets - 8.0% - 6.8% - 8.1% - 8.3% - 8.8% - 9.0% = Net Lending (+)/Borrowing (- ) - 5.4% - 4.6% - 3.4% - 1.6% - 4.5% - 4.6% 3. Money & Credit (% YoY) Reserve Money 30.5% 7.9% 34.2% 14.3% 28.0% 19.4% Broad Money 36.3% 26.3% 46.6% 33.8% 32.3% 26.4% DomesXc Credit 34.4% 25.1% 5.1% 30.4% 32.5% 25.3% Private Sector 65.4% 60.1% 50.5% 66.5% 44.7% 31.8% 4. Balance of Payments (% GDP) Exports 17.8% 18.2% 18.6% 21.5% 22.9% 22.6% - Imports % % % % % % = Trade Balance 1.3% - 0.3% - 3.8% - 4.7% - 3.8% - 4.3% Current Account Balance - 1.2% - 1.9% - 4.3% - 5.4% - 5.3% - 5.1% Financial Account 2.9% 3.7% 9.2% 9.0% 8.2% 8.3% Net Foreign Direct Investment 4.5% 3.7% 5.0% 4.6% 5.1% 5.2% Overall Balance - 0.9% - 1.6% 3.8% 2.6% 2.9% 3.2% 5. Central Bank Reserves In USD mn In Months of Imports External Debt In USD bn As % GDP Source: IMF Article IV Consultation Staff Report October 2014

24 IMF Mission Recommends Policy Tightening (July 2015)! 2014/15 GDP growth estimated at 8.5%. Private sector credit growth rose by 36%, the underlying fiscal deficit was 5.5% of GDP and the current account deficit rose to 6% of GDP. FDI flows were lower than expected and FX import cover is below 3 months. The Kyat has weakened but is largely unchanged in REER terms.! In 2015/16, growth will likely be maintained at 8.5%; the increased deficit in the budget and its monetisation will contribute to strong demand and credit growth. Inflation may rise further.! There are downside risks from the strong US Dollar and weak natural gas prices. Rapid credit growth, an expansionary budget and a widening trade deficit pose risks to price and external stability.! Tighter monetary and fiscal policies are required to contain inflation and anchor FX expectations. These should be reinforced by the prompt and vigorous enforcement of prudential standards in the financial sector to slow credit expansion and reduce sector risks.! The 2015/16 fiscal deficit should be reduced through revenue mobilisation (eg. through reduced incentives, tighter enforcement and the introduction of commercial tax on telecoms) and expenditure re-prioritisation. Transfers to the regions should be conditioned on implementation capacity and spending responsibility.! In FX, a more flexible CBM reference rate that reflects market conditions and closes the gap with parallel market rates would help contain demand and reduce the risk of excessive drains on international reserves.! Maintaining macro stability is critical in managing economic/social transition. Sustained reforms are need to create fiscal space, boost public investment, strengthen regulation/supervision and support inclusive growth. Building institutional capacity for macro management is key to addressing Myanmar s development challenges Source: IMF Article IV Consultation Mission Press Release, 1 st July

25 Visit the Inwa Advisers website for regular comment on Myanmar: - Monthly Myanmar Business and Investment Digest - Periodic articles on specific topics and news

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