Vietnam Economy - IMF Article IV Consultation Report Summary (Summer 2017)
|
|
- Bryce Lynch
- 6 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 Vietnam Economy - IMF Article IV Consultation Report Summary (Summer 2017) Inwa Advisers Pte Ltd. Incorporated in the Republic of Singapore. Co Reg No D.
2 Summary of Main Points (I)* POSITIVES The economy continues on a solid path growth is robust, underpinned by domestic demand, export-oriented manufacturing and FDI 2016 real GDP +6.2%, current A/C +4.1% of GDP, FDI 6.3% of GDP, FX reserves +$10bn (5% GDP) Excellent progress has been made in reducing poverty poverty headcount ratio has fallen from c.80% to below 20% since 1990 rapid income growth has been widely shared across the wealth spectrum of the population Reforms continue on a broad front the govt. is keenly aware of limited fiscal space & the need to upgrade the growth model Stated plans for fiscal consolidation are appropriate 4.7% deficit target for 2017, falling to below 3.5% of GDP by has seen progress in tax administration, 0.7% GDP in equitization, lengthening of govt. debt maturities Core inflation is low (at below 2%) this is an excellent time to begin modernizing Vietnam s monetary framework * For full details, please refer to the Vietnam pages on the IMF s website and, specifically, to the items dated 5 th July Country Report No. 17/190, including Staff Report for 2017 Article IV Consultation - Country Report No. 17/191 Vietnam: Selected Issues 1
3 Summary of Main Points (2) CHALLENGES / NEXT STEPS Fiscal consolidation: more specific measures are needed to broaden revenue (eg. fewer incentives, a property tax, unified VAT rates, higher excise & environmental taxes) to raise spending effectiveness, protect infrastructure / social spending, reform the civil service pending clarification of these, the IMF staff s projections do not fully reflect the government s fiscal targets External position: substantially stronger than warranted by fundamentals reforms needed (in banking, SOEs, services, competition) to reduce barriers to investment coverage of pensions & social safety net need strengthening to lower precautionary saving Banking system: provisioning is piecemeal and bank recapitalization needs to be faster strong deposit insurance & effective lender of last resort needed to maintain confidence in system phasing out of credit targets, reforms to facilitate debt enforcement / collection introduction of international accounting standards, reduction in foreign ownership limits Credit misallocation / narrowing the perimeter of the state a disproportionate share of credit is channeled to SOEs, which enjoy unfair advantages vs SMEs privatization of stronger SOEs is welcome; attention now needed to sell/restructure/resolve weakest plans to separate govt. ownership from SOE management and state s regulatory function are critical Raising the productivity of the non-fdi sector, including in agriculture regulatory barriers to entry in certain sectors (eg. electricity), corruption, preferential access to resources sustainability risks elevated in agriculture & fisheries (salinization, water/air/ground pollution, climate change) 2
4 Selected Economic & Financial Indicators E 2016P 2017P 2018P Real0GDP0Growth0(YoY,0%) Per0Capita0GDP0(USD) , , , , , , , Growth0in0Per0Capita0GDP0(%) CPI0(Period0Average,0%) CPI0(End0of0Period,0%) Core0Inflation0(End0of0Period,0%) Govt.0Revenue0&0Grants0(%0GDP) Govt.0Expenditure0(%0GDP) Govt.0Balance0(%0GDP) Public0Debt0(Period0End,0%0GDP) Broad0Money0Growth0(YoY,0%) Credit0Growth0(YoY,0%) Nominal03m0Deposit0Rate0(%) Nominal0ST0Lending0Rate0(%) Current0Account0Balance0(%0GDP) Exports0(FOB,0%0GDP) Imports0(FOB,0%0GDP) Capital/Financial0Account0(%0GDP) Gross0Int'l0Reserves0(USD0bn) In0Months0of0Prospective0Imports Total0External0Debt0(%0GDP) Nominal0Exchange0Rate0(USD,0EoP) , , , , ,770 00Nom.0Effective0Exchange0Rate Real0Effective0Exchange0Rate
5 Growth and Inflation Vietnam s growth continues to be solid although oil output has dragged recently. Domestic demand & investment remain robust. 9" GDP$Growth$(%)$ Contribu)on*to*GDP*Growth*by*Ac)vity*(2010*Prices,*%)* 20$ Contribu)on*to*GDP*Growth*by*Expenditure*(2010*prices,*%*pts)* 8" 7# 7" 6" 5# 10$ 5" 4" 3" 2" 3# 1# 0$ 1" 0" Q1"2011" Q1"2012" Q1"2013" Q1"2014" Q1"2015" Q1"2016" Q1"2017"!1# Q1#2011# Q1#2012# Q1#2013# Q1#2014# Q1#2015# Q1#2016# Q1#2017# Services# Construc8on# Industry#(excl#Mining)# Agriculture,#Forestry,#Fisheries# Mining#!10$ Q1$2011$ Q1$2012$ Q1$2013$ Q1$2014$ Q1$2015$ Q1$2016$ Q1$2017$ Gross$Capital$Forma8on$ Errors$and$Omissions$ Trade$ Consump8on$ Administered price increases are the main driver of higher headline inflation 9# 7# 5# 3# 1#!1# Contribu)on*to*Headline*Infla)on*(%*pts)*!3# Jan!13# Jul!13# Jan!14# Jul!14# Jan!15# Jul!15# Jan!16# Jul!16# Jan!17# Food# Transport# Educa9on/#&#Healthcare# Other#Goods# and, although the output gap has closed, core inflation has remained low. 9# 7# 5# 3# 1# Vietnam()(Headline(and(Core(Infla2on,(%(YoY(!1# Jan!13# Jun!13# Nov!13# Apr!14# Sep!14# Feb!15# Jul!15# Dec!15# May!16# Oct!16# Mar!17# Source for all charts / data: IMF Staff Report for 2017 Article IV Consultation, 5 th July IMF s website for full details Headline# Core#(excl.#raw#food,#energy,#administered#prices)# Please refer to the - Monetary conditions are accommodative, with real IB rates close to zero and the Dong having depreciated by 1.9% since Nov IMF advises keeping IB rates above the repo. rate, reducing credit growth targets to below 15% and being alert to higher inflation risks - Monetary policy, if anchored to inflation, would increase FX flexibility & resilience, whilst allowing credit targets / deposit ceilings etc. to be phased out in stages - Further strengthening in human capital / capacity at the Central Bank is advised as a first step in policy modernization - Reserves stand at 70% of the IMF s metric and should be accumulated opportunistically over the medium term. 4
6 Balance of Payments Exports (IT) & imports stronger in H and the BOP strengthened in FDI strong, especially in manufacturing. 40.0% 35.0% Exports(&(Imports((3mma,(%(change(YoY)( 30.0% 25.0% Balance'of'Payments'(%'GDP)' 3 FDI$Commitments$($bn)$ 30.0% 20.0% 25.0# 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% % 5.0% 15.0# 10.0% 5.0% 0.0%!5.0% 1 0.0%!5.0%!10.0% Jan!12% Jul!12% Jan!13% Jul!13% Jan!14% Jul!14% Jan!15% Jul!15% Jan!16% Jul!16% Exports% Imports%!10.0%!15.0%!20.0% Q1%2010% Q4%2010% Q3%2011% Q2%2012% Q1%2013% Q4%2013% Q3%2014% Q2%2015% Q1%2016% Q4%2016% Errors%&%Omissions% Current%A/C% Capital%&%Financial%A/C% 5.0# 2009# 2010# 2011# 2012# 2013# 2014# 2015# 2016# Others# Real#Estate# Wholesale/Retail# M:g/Processing# Investments goods & intermediate inputs are more than 50% of imports combined Imports(by(Category(($bn)( 2009# 2010# 2011# 2012# 2013# 2014# 2015# 2016# Others# Commodi7es# Intermediate#Inputs# Machinery/Eqpt# Steel# but investment has declined in the past decade and savings are stubbornly high. 40# 35# 30# 25# 20# 15# Savings(and(Investment((%(GDP)( 2005# 2006# 2007# 2008# 2009# 2010# 2011# 2012# 2013# 2014# 2015# 2016# Gross#Na2onal#Saving# GCF#(ex#FDI)# GCF# Source for all charts / data: IMF Staff Report for 2017 Article IV Consultation, 5 th July IMF s website for full details Please refer to the - The external position is substantially stronger than warranted by fundamentals and desirable policies - IMF estimates the Current A/C is c.6% higher than it could be and that, taking this into account, the Dong is undervalued by c. 10% - Distortions in the economy discourage investment in the domestic private sector and underdeveloped social security encourages precautionary saving - Current A/C of domestic non-fdi sector is -8% of GDP and productivity is 20% of FDI sector - Slow SOE reform, barriers to SMEs reaching economies of scale and credit misallocation all impede the development of a vibrant non- FDI sector. 5
7 Fiscal Balance and Credit Fiscal deficit >6% of GDP since 2012 public debt up by 10% GDP since Fiscal revenue has been in long-term decline Fiscal'Balance'(%'GDP)' Public'and'Publicly'Guaranteed'Debt'(%'GDP)' 2.0% 7 1.0% 6 0.0%!1.0% 5!2.0% 4!3.0%!4.0% 3!5.0% 2!6.0%!7.0% 1!8.0% 2006% 2007% 2008% 2009% 2010% 2011% 2012% 2013% 2014% 2015E% 2016P% 2006# 2007# 2008# 2009# 2010# 2011# 2012# 2013# 2014# 2015E# 2016P# Fiscal%Balance% Primary%Balance% Domes4c#Debt# Foreign#Debt# 30# 27# 24# 21# 18# Revenue&(%&GDP)& 2006# 2007# 2008# 2009# 2010# 2011# 2012# 2013# 2014# 2015E# 2016P# Lending to real estate in the vanguard even as credit growth remains high. Contribu)on*to*Credit*Growth*(%*change*YoY)* 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0%!5.0% Q4%2012% Q2%2013% Q4%2013% Q2%2014% Q4%2014% Q2%2015% Q4%2015% Q2%2016% Q4%2016% Trade,%Transport,%Comms% Real%Estate,%Fin%Servs,%Other%Servs% ConstrucDon% Industry% Agriculture,%Forestry,%Fisheries% Credit'Growth'(%'change'YoY)' 30.00% 25.00% 20.00% 15.00% 10.00% 5.00% 0.00%!5.00% Q4%2011% Q4%2012% Q4%2013% Q4%2014% Q4%2015% Q4%2016% To%SOEs% To%non!SOEs% From%Four%Main%State%Banks% From%non!State%Banks% Source for all charts / data: IMF Staff Report for 2017 Article IV Consultation, 5 th July Please refer to the IMF s website for full details - Target is to reduce deficit to 4.7% GDP in 2017 and to below 3.5% GDP by Plans for better tax administration, and 2% of cuts in social and capital expenditure - Administered prices are being liberalized - IMF argues more is needed to broaden and diversify revenues and reduce tax incentives - It sees scope for a reduction in public sector headcount, improved capital spending efficiency and greater private sector participation in infrastructure projects - Public funds (1% GDP) should be authorized for bank recapitalization - Faster bank and SOE reform could boost GDP growth to 7% in the long run. 6
8 Banking System and Credit Progress on NPLs, but more to be done Total Impaired IL.Ratio IL.Ratio Loans Loans.(IL) (Dec.2016) (Jun.2015) Total.banking.sector % 12.7% StateFowned.banks % 13.7% Private.sector.banks % 11.7% IMF Staff Note: The reported CAR is 9.9% for SOCBs and 11.8% for private domestic banks. However, these reflect the reported NPL ratio of 2.5%, not the IMF Staff s more broadly-defined impaired assets ratio of 8.4%. Full adoption of Basel II, scheduled for 2020, will reduce CARs by 200 to 400 bps. Credit /GDP now high vs. ASEAN-5 & peers Credit'to'Private'Sector'(%'GDP)' 120.0$ 100.0$ 80.0$ 60.0$ 40.0$ 20.0$ 2000$ 2001$ 2002$ 2003$ 2004$ 2005$ 2006$ 2007$ 2008$ 2009$ 2010$ 2011$ 2012$ 2013$ 2014$ 2015$ Vietnam$ ASEAN85$ Middle$Income$ and higher than regression analysis estimate Credit'to'Private'Sector'' Predic.ons'on'Fundamentals'(%'GDP)' 2000#2001#2002#2003#2004#2005#2006#2007#2008#2009#2010#2011#2012#2013#2014#2015#2016# Actual# Predic8on# Credit intensity of growth is high, raising questions over the productivity of new credit 7.5% 6.0% 4.5% 3.0% 1.5% 0.0%!1.5% Credit'Intensity'of'Growth'(%)' 2000% 2001% 2002% 2003% 2004% 2005% 2006% 2007% 2008% 2009% 2010% 2011% 2012% 2013% 2014% 2015% 2016% 2017% Credit/GDP is now close to levels reached during previous periods of economic instability Source for charts / data: IMF Staff Report for 2017 Article IV Consultation and IMF report on Vietnam, Selected Issues, both dated 5 th July Please refer to the IMF s website for full details. 30.0& 25.0& 20.0& 15.0& 10.0& 5.0& 0.0&!5.0&!10.0& Credit'to'GDP,Cycles,(Q1,2001'Q4,2016),!15.0& Q1&2001&Q3&2002&Q1&2004&Q3&2005&Q1&2007&Q3&2008&Q1&2010&Q3&2011&Q1&2013&Q3&2014&Q1&2016& Credit&Cycle&(HP&Filter)& Infla@on&(EOP)& - Progress on NPLs, but performance uneven between banks. Some (incl. 3 taken over by SBV) in need of restructuring - Piecemeal provisioning and gradual bank recapitalization are sub-optimal - Low returns (system RoA 0.6%, RoE 7.5%) complicate efforts to strengthen bank capital - Foreign ownership limits and weak accounting deter foreign strategic investors - Tightening of risk weights for real estate loans welcomed. SOE leverage should be watched (they absorb a disproportionate amount of credit) - Administrative credit growth targets should be phased out - Steps to strengthen VAMC and to enable it to seize collateral are welcomed 7
9 Wealth Distribution, Environmental Costs, Preparing for Ageing Extreme poverty has fallen dramatically and rapid income growth is widely shared. Growth has come with environmental damage. 90" 80" 70" 60" 50" 40" 30" 20" 10" Poverty(Headcount(Ra0o(at($3.10/day(( (2011(PPP,(%(of(Popula0on)( 0" Bangladesh" Lao"PDR" Philippines" Indonesia" Cambodia" Vietnam" China" Malaysia" Thailand" 1990" 2014"(or"latest)" 8.0# 7.0# 6.0# 5.0# 4.0# 3.0# 2.0# 1.0# Annualised(Per(Capita(Income(Growth( by(percen&le(of(income(distribu&on((%)( 5# 15# 25# 35# 45# 55# 65# 75# 85# 95# Percen&le(of(Income(Distribu&on( # # 2.0# 1.6# 1.2# 0.8# 0.4# CO2$and$Par*culate$Emission$Damage$ %$GNI,$2010>2014$Average$ BRN# KHM# IDN# LAO# MYS# PHL# SGP# THA# VNM# World# CO2#Damage# ParDculate#Damage# Like other Asian economies, ageing is projected to occur more rapidly than in the West Singapore# Thailand# China# Vietnam# Japan# Korea# Indonesia# India# Malaysia# Philippines# HK# Australia# NZ# US# Europe# Years&for&Age&Dependency&Ra2o&to&Increase& from&15%&to&20%&(adr&=&pop&>65yrs&/&pop&15a64yrs)& but at a lower per capita income level, meaning the costs may be harder to absorb. Source for charts / data: IMF Staff Report for 2017 Article IV Consultation and IMF report on Vietnam, Selected Issues, both dated 5 th July Please refer to the IMF s website for full details US# Per$Capita$Income$at$Working$Age$Pop.$Peak$Share$ (PPP7based,$as$%$of$US$PCI)$ Germany# Italy# Canada# France# UK# Australia# Japan# Korea# NZ# Philippines# Malaysia# India# Indonesia# Thailand# China# Vietnam# - Vietnam s overall wealth inequality, as measured by the net GINI Index, remains below the East Asian average - Agriculture and industrial development has relied on intensive, unsustainable exploitation of resources. The stock of natural capital has declined as these are depleted, and air land and water pollution have increased - In large cities and industrial zones, air pollution is comparable to China s. Under current plans, 53% of energy production will be coal-fired by The working-age share of the population peaked in 2013 and will drop relatively quickly and at a low per capita income level - There is a risk of Vietnam becoming old before it becomes rich ie. it needs to sustain high growth in the coming decades 8
10 Visit the Inwa Advisers website for regular comment on Vietnam and Myanmar - Monthly Myanmar Business and Investment Digest - Periodic articles on specific topics and news 9
11
Vietnam: Economic Context
Vietnam: Economic Context Parliamentary Network Visit to Vietnam March 5 8, 218 Hanoi, Vietnam Jonathan Dunn IMF Resident Representative International Monetary Fund Outline 2 IMF activities Economic achievements
More informationLAO ECONOMIC MONITOR APRIL 2017
LAO ECONOMIC MONITOR APRIL 2017 May-June 2017 1. Recent Economic Developments and Outlook 2. Health Sector Financing in Lao PDR 1. Recent Economic Developments Contents 1. Key findings 2. Growth and inflation
More informationIndonesia: Building on Resilience and Prospering Amid Global Economic Uncertainty
Indonesia: Building on Resilience and Prospering Amid Global Economic Uncertainty 2016 Article IV Consultation Report on Indonesia John G. Nelmes IMF Senior Resident Representative for Indonesia Academic
More informationMongolia Selected Macroeconomic Indicators September 19, 2013
Mongolia Selected Macroeconomic Indicators September 19, 13 For further information, please contact: SSelenge@imf.org Jan-8 May-8 Sep-8 Jan-9 May-9 Sep-9 Jan-1 May-1 Sep-1 May-11 Sep-11 May-1 Sep-1 May-13
More informationMongolia Selected Macroeconomic Indicators December 18, 2013
Mongolia Selected Macroeconomic Indicators December 18, 213 For further information, please contact: SSelenge@imf.org 2 2 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 212 213 Q1 Q2 Q3 Oct. Nov. First 11 months Total US$-value
More informationMongolia Selected Macroeconomic Indicators January 24, 2014
Mongolia Selected Macroeconomic Indicators January 2, 21 For further information, please contact: SSelenge@imf.org 2 2 27 2 29 21 211 212 213 213 Q1 Q2 Q3 Oct. Nov. Dec. Q Total US$-value 1,3 1,97 2,3
More informationPURSUING SHARED PROSPERITY IN AN ERA OF TURBULENCE AND HIGH COMMODITY PRICES
2012 Key messages Asia-Pacific growth to slow in 2012 amidst global turbulence: Spillovers of the euro zone turmoil Global oil price hikes Excess liquidity and volatile capital flows Key long-term challenge:
More informationFINANCE TO ENSURE ASIA S ECONOMIC GROWTH DR. RANEE JAYAMAHA CHAIRPERSON - HATTON NATIONAL BANK PLC
FINANCE TO ENSURE ASIA S ECONOMIC GROWTH DR. RANEE JAYAMAHA CHAIRPERSON - HATTON NATIONAL BANK PLC TABLE 1 : REAL GDP GROWTH OF SOUTHEAST ASIA, CHINA AND INDIA (ANNUAL PERCENTAGE CHANGE) PROJECTIONS ASEAN-6
More informationGlobal/Regional Economic and Financial Outlook. Odd Per Brekk Director IMF Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific APEC SFOM, June
Global/Regional Economic and Financial Outlook Odd Per Brekk Director IMF Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific APEC SFOM, June 11-12 2015 2015/SFOM13/002 Session: 1 Global/Regional Economic and Financial
More informationSustaining Resilience, Expanding Opportunities for Inclusive Growth
1 Sustaining Resilience, Expanding Opportunities for Inclusive Growth Deputy Governor Diwa C. Guinigundo Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Source: Google images 2 PH emerges as growth leader in the ASEAN pack
More informationRecent Asia experiences with capital flows
Recent Asia experiences with capital flows Rob Subbaraman, Chief Economist Asia Ex-Japan December 2007 Asia ex-japan's total balance of payments % of GDP 10 8 6 4 2 0-2 -4 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
More informationThe Korean Economy: Resilience amid Turbulence
The Korean Economy: Resilience amid Turbulence Dr. Il SaKong Special Economic Advisor Adviser to the President Republic of Korea November 17, 17, 2008 November 17, 2008 1. Recent Macroeconomic Developments
More informationAsia Key Economic and Financial Indicators 13-Jul-17
Asia Key Economic and Financial Indicators -Jul-7 ASEAN Brunei (BN) Cambodia (KH) Indonesia () Laos (LA) Malaysia () Myanmar (MM) Philippines () Singapore () Thailand () Vietnam () East Asia China (CN)
More informationOtaviano Canuto Vice President & Head of Network Poverty Reduction and Economic Management The World Bank
Otaviano Canuto Vice President & Head of Network Poverty Reduction and Economic Management The World Bank The 11th International Academic Conference on Economic and Social Development April 6-8, 2010 Moscow
More informationECONOMIC REFORM (SUMMARY) I. INTRODUCTION
Interim Country Partnership Strategy: Myanmar, 2012-2014 ECONOMIC REFORM (SUMMARY) I. INTRODUCTION 1. This economic reform assessment (summary) provides the background to the identification of issues,
More informationAsia Key Economic and Financial Indicators 20-Oct-16
Asia Key Economic and Financial Indicators -Oct- ASEAN Brunei (BN) Cambodia (KH) Indonesia () Laos (LA) Malaysia () Myanmar (MM) Philippines () Singapore () Thailand () Vietnam () East Asia China (CN)
More informationEconomic Prospects: East Asia and South Asia
Economic Prospects: East Asia and South Asia Daniel Jeongdae Lee, UN ESCAP UN DESA EGM on the World Economy 2 October 216, Toronto Main messages Steady high growth >> quality of growth (jobs, poverty,
More informationAsian Insights Third quarter 2016 Asia s commitment in policies and reforms
Asian Insights Third quarter 2016 Asia s commitment in policies and reforms One of the commonalities between most Asian governments is the dedicated commitment they have in using policies and initiatives
More informationCharting Brunei s Economy
Charting Brunei s Economy Designed to help executives catch up with the economy and incorporate macro impacts into company s planning. Annual subscription includes 2 semiannual issues published in June
More informationMonthly Update of the ASEAN+3 Regional Economic Outlook (AREO)
Monthly Update of the ASEAN+3 Regional Economic Outlook (AREO) Special Edition ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) Singapore January 2018 This Monthly Update of the AREO was prepared by the Regional
More informationPresentation. Global Financial Crisis and the Asia-Pacific Economies: Lessons Learnt and Challenges Introduction of the Issues
High-level Regional Policy Dialogue on "Asia-Pacific economies after the global financial crisis: Lessons learnt, challenges for building resilience, and issues for global reform" 6-8 September 211, Manila,
More informationThailand 4.0 ( and the IMF Article IV)
Thailand 4.0 ( and the IMF Article IV) Ana Corbacho IMF Mission Chief for Thailand September 25, 2017 Tokyo Thailand 4.0 Government s vision Transform Thailand into a value-added and innovation-driven
More informationPRESENTATION ON Fiscal Policy for Development and Budgetary Implications: Experience in Other Parts of Asia
PRESENTATION ON Fiscal Policy for Development and Budgetary Implications: Experience in Other Parts of Asia By Dr. Ashfaque H. Khan Principal NUST Business School National University of Sciences & Technology,
More informationSri Lanka: IMF-Sponsored Reform Programme, Overview & Update (September 2017)
Sri Lanka: IMF-Sponsored Reform Programme, Overview & Update (September 2017) Inwa Advisers Pte Ltd. Incorporated in the Republic of Singapore. Co Reg No. 198601745D. Contents IMF s Comments on the Progress
More informationWorld Economic Outlook. Recovery Strengthens, Remains Uneven April
World Economic Outlook Recovery Strengthens, Remains Uneven April 214 1 April 214 WEO: Key Messages Global growth strengthened in 213H2, will accelerate further in 214-1 Advanced economies are providing
More informationSurvey launch in 37 locations
ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL SURVEY OF ASIA AND THE PACIFIC 213 Forward-looking Macroeconomic Policies for Inclusive and Sustainable Development 1 Survey launch in 37 locations 2 28 Locations in Asia-Pacific New
More informationCharting Myanmar s Economy
Charting Myanmar s Economy Designed to help executives catch up with the economy and incorporate macro impacts into company s planning. Annual subscription includes 2 semiannual issues published in June
More informationGlobal Economic Prospects: Navigating strong currents
Global Economic Prospects: Navigating strong currents Andrew Burns World Bank January 18, 2011 http://www.worldbank.org/globaloutlook Main messages Most developing countries have passed with flying colors
More informationIntroduction to the UK Economy
Introduction to the UK Economy What are the key objectives of macroeconomic policy? Price Stability (CPI Inflation of 2%) Growth of Real GDP (National Output) Falling Unemployment / Raising Employment
More informationThailand and TPP 30 November 2012 Apiradi Tantraporn, Executive Chairperson The International Institute for Asia Pacific Studies (INSAPS), Bangkok
Thailand and TPP 30 November 2012 Apiradi Tantraporn, Executive Chairperson The International Institute for Asia Pacific Studies (INSAPS), Bangkok University 1. Thailand and TPP TPP Countries and Thailand
More informationB-GUIDE: Economic Outlook
Aug-12 Apr-13 Dec-13 Aug-14 Apr-15 Dec-15 Aug-16 Apr-17 Jul-15 Nov-15 Mar-16 Jul-16 Nov-16 Mar-17 Jul-17 Quarterly Economic Outlook: Quarter 4 2017 4 January 2018 B-GUIDE: Economic Outlook The economy
More informationPart. Situation and Economic Indicators of SMEs in 2012 and 2013
Part 01 Situation and Economic Indicators of SMEs in 2012 and 2013 Chapter 1 + Gross Domestic Product of SMEs 1 Gross Domestic Product of SMEs The overall gross domestic product (GDP) of 2012 expanded
More informationIndonesia Economic Outlook and Policy Challenges
Indonesia Economic Outlook and Policy Challenges Daniel A. Citrin Asia and Pacific Department, IMF April 3, 28 Global Financial Stability Map: risks have risen; conditions have deteriorated October 27
More informationChikahisa Sumi Director, Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific International Monetary Fund
Chikahisa Sumi Director, Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific International Monetary Fund (percent YOY) 8 6 Real GDP Growth ASSUMPTIONS A more gradual monetary policy normalization 4 2 21 211 212
More informationL-1 Part 2 Introduction to Indonesia Case Study
L-1 Part 2 Introduction to Indonesia Case Study IMF Singapore Regional Training Institute OT 18.52 Macroeconomic Diagnostics February 26 March 2, 2018 Presenter Stephan Danninger This training material
More informationNear-term growth: moderating, but no imminent hard landing. Vulnerabilities are growing along the current growth path
1 Near-term growth: moderating, but no imminent hard landing Vulnerabilities are growing along the current growth path financial and structural reform must be accelerated to contain risks and transition
More information2017 Asia and Pacific Regional Economic Outlook:
217 Asia and Pacific Regional Economic Outlook: Preparing for Choppy Seas Ranil Salgado International Monetary Fund Asia and Pacific Department May 12, 217 OAP Seminar Key messages and roadmap The near-term
More informationManaging Global Shocks: The Case of Indonesia
Managing Global Shocks: The Case of Indonesia Dr. Hartadi A. Sarwono Deputy Governor IIF Asian Regional Economic Forum Singapore, March 5, 2009 Outline 2 1. Crisis highlights 2. Macroconomic Condition
More informationPhilippine Country Report Asia Securities Forum Ismael G. Cruz Philippine Association of Securities Brokers Dealers
Philippine Country Report Asia Securities Forum 2016 Ismael G. Cruz Philippine Association of Securities Brokers Dealers PHL GDP Growth Of 6.2% from 2010 to 2015, Accelerating from 4.9% in 2000-2009, and
More informationEmerging Global Challenges and implications for Indonesia
Emerging Global Challenges and implications for Indonesia Muhammad Chatib Basri Harvard Kennedy School and University of Indonesia Short term problems: macroeconomic stability 2 The macroeconomic impact
More informationAsian Banking, Depositor Preference, and Deposit Insurance
Asian Banking, Depositor Preference, and Deposit Insurance Kevin Davis Professor of Finance, University of Melbourne Research Director, ACFS Professor, Monash University University of Melbourne 1 Summary
More informationGlobal Markets Group. Trade Performance: Depressed by the Eid holiday Author: Juniman Chief Economist. Economic Research. Trade Outlook Monthly Report
Global Markets Group Trade Outlook Monthly Report Economic Research August 2016 Trade Performance: Depressed by the Eid holiday Author: Juniman Chief Economist Trade Highlights Exports in June 2016 rose
More informationBNM Maintains OPR at 3.25%, Hawkish About Economic Outlook
7 March 2018 ECONOMIC REVIEW March 2018 BNM MPC BNM Maintains OPR at 3.25%, Hawkish About Economic Outlook Overnight Policy Rate maintained at 3.25%. In line with our expectation, overnight policy rate,
More informationKey Economic Challenges in Japan and Asia. Changyong Rhee IMF Asia and Pacific Department February
Key Economic Challenges in Japan and Asia Changyong Rhee IMF Asia and Pacific Department February 2017 1 Global and Asia Outlook 2 Global activity strengthening, with rising dispersion and uncertainty
More informationWestpac 2008 Full year results
Westpac 2008 Full year results 30 October 2008 Westpac 2008 Full year results Gail Kelly Chief Executive Officer Key messages Performed well in a challenging environment, delivering a robust financial
More informationECONOMIC OUTLOOK FOR SOUTHEAST ASIA, CHINA AND INDIA 2018:
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FOR SOUTHEAST ASIA, CHINA AND INDIA 2018: FOSTERING GROWTH THROUGH DIGITALISATION Kensuke Tanaka, Head of Asia Desk OECD Development Centre Asia-Pacific Business Forum, Hong Kong, China
More informationIndonesia Economic Quarterly: October 2012 Maintaining resilience
Indonesia Economic Quarterly: October 1 Maintaining resilience Ndiame Diop Lead Economist & Economic Advisor, Indonesia World Bank October 15, 1 Paramadina Public Policy Institute www.worldbank.org/id
More informationGlobal Markets Group. Trade Performance: Narrowing Surplus Author: Juniman Chief Economist. Economic Research. Trade Outlook Monthly Report
Global Markets Group Trade Outlook Monthly Report Economic Research November 2016 Trade Performance: Narrowing Surplus Author: Juniman Chief Economist Trade Highlights Exports in September 2016 fell to
More informationChina: Beyond the headlines. Bill Maldonado HSBC Global Asset Management
China: Beyond the headlines Bill Maldonado HSBC Global Asset Management Are you a China Bull or a Bear? Source: Various news publications 2 Bear myth #1: Hard landing? GDP: Growth is slowing, but it s
More informationQuarterly Economic Outlook: Quarter on 25 September 2018 Strong Economic Expansions amidst Uncertainty of Trade War
Foregin Direct Investment (Billion USD) China U.S. Asia World Quarterly Economic Outlook: Quarter 3 2018 on 25 September 2018 Strong Economic Expansions amidst Uncertainty of Trade War Thai Economy: Thai
More informationInvestor Presentation. For 2016
Investor Presentation For 216 Bangkok Bank 1. Operating Environment 2. Our Financial Results 216 3. Bangkok Bank s Position 4. Our Key Focus & Strategy 2 The Thai Economy: Steady Trend of Moderate Recovery
More informationAdvanced and Emerging Economies Two speed Recovery
Advanced and Emerging Economies Two speed Recovery 23 November 2 Bauhinia Foundation Research Centre Masaaki Shirakawa Governor of the Bank of Japan Slide 1 Japan s Silver Yen and Hong Kong s Silver Yuan
More informationAsia Bond Monitor June 2018
September 8 asianbondsonline.adb.org Key Developments in Asian Local Currency Markets Japan s industrial production fell.% on a month-on-month (m-o-m) basis but rose.% on a year-on-year (y-o-y) basis in
More informationBangladesh: Selected Indicators
Bangladesh Economic and Financial Indicators, April Bangladesh: Selected Indicators Bangladesh economy maintained an average annual growth rate of six percent plus over the last decade, with 7.% outturn
More informationAsia and the Pacific: Economic Outlook and Drivers
2018/FDM1/004 Session 2.1 Asia and the Pacific: Economic Outlook and Drivers Purpose: Information Submitted by: International Monetary Fund Finance and Central Bank Deputies Meeting Port Moresby, Papua
More informationRMB internationalization:
RMB internationalization: Recent Development and headwinds Alicia Garcia-Herrero Chief Economist for Emerging Markets, BBVA Key points 1 Why is China pushing to internationalize the RMB? 2 Recent development
More informationThe effects of the financial crisis on developing countries mapping out the issues. By Julian Jessop
The effects of the financial crisis on developing countries mapping out the issues By Julian Jessop 1. Plan of My Talk The outlook for advanced economies. Impact on developing countries. Some losers and
More informationMonthly Economic Insight
Monthly Economic Insight Prepared by : TMB Analytics Date: 22 February 2018 Executive Summary Synchronized global economic growth continued to brighten global economic outlook and global trade outlook.
More informationEconomic Monthly ASEAN & India
Economic Monthly ASEAN & India AKI FUKUCHI ECONOMIC RESEARCH OFFICE TOKYO YUMA TSUCHIYA ECONOMIC RESEARCH OFFICE SINGAPORE APRIL 8 (ORIGINAL JAPANESE VERSION RELEASED ON APRIL 8) MUFG Bank, Ltd. A member
More informationFinancing the MDG Gaps in the Asia-Pacific
Financing the MDG Gaps in the Asia-Pacific Dr. Nagesh Kumar Chief Economist, ESCAP And Director, ESCAP Subregional Office for South and South-West Asia, New Delhi 1 2 Outline Closing the poverty gap: interactions
More informationMalaysia Economic Monitor The Quest for Productivity Growth
Malaysia Economic Monitor The Quest for Productivity Growth 1 Contents RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS AND OUTLOOK External environment Domestic economic developments Outlook THE QUEST FOR PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH
More informationIndonesia Economics Update
Indonesia Economics Update THEE Kian Wie and Siwage Dharma Negara Economic Research Centre Indonesian Institute of Sciences (P2E LIPI) Jakarta 24 September 2010 Macroeconomic Developments Growth Balance
More informationEconomy and Banking Sector in Turkey. İstanbul June, 2012
Economy and Banking Sector in Turkey İstanbul June, 2012 Content Economic Outlook Banking sector Near-term expectations Turkish economy and banking sector 1 Turkish economy and banking sector 2 Economic
More informationA Global Economic and Market Outlook
A Global Economic and Market Outlook Presented by Dr Chris Caton December 2008 US Housing starts and Permits 2.3 (Millions) Permits Starts 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.7 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05
More informationIndonesia Economic Quarterly, July 2014 Hard choices. Ndiamé Diop Lead Economist
Indonesia Economic Quarterly, July 214 Hard choices Ndiamé Diop Lead Economist The new administration will face major near-term challenges Fiscal pressures Economic growth Poverty and inequality reduction
More informationASIAN ECONOMIES. Economics, interest rates and currencies chart pack
ASIAN ECONOMIES Economics, interest rates and currencies chart pack Amy Auster Senior Economist Melbourne 2 May 25 E-mail: austera@anz.com Internet: http://www.anz.com/go/economics 1 Major revisions to
More informationAsia s strongest brand in banking, banking the world s strongest economies
Credit Suisse Investor Conference Peter Wong, Chief Executive, HSBC Asia-Pacific Asia s strongest brand in banking, banking the world s strongest economies 21 March 2011 www.hsbc.com Forward-looking statements
More informationMacroeconomic and Financial Development: Mongolia
Macroeconomic and Financial Development: Mongolia WORKSHOPS ON SUPPORTING ASIA PACIFIC LLDCs AND BHUTAN IN MOBILIZING RESOURCES FOR THE SDGs 14 December 201 Current state of macroeconomic and financial
More informationThe Global Economic Crisis: Asia and the role of China Elliott School of International Affairs, George Washington University March 31, 2009
The Global Economic Crisis: Asia and the role of China Elliott School of International Affairs, George Washington University March 31, 29 Anoop Singh Asia and Pacific Department IMF 1 Five key questions
More informationMALAYSIA Summary Exports grew by 6% in 2002 A broad based recovery gained momentum in 2002.
MALAYSIA Summary A broad-based economic recovery gained momentum in 2002, despite a more challenging external environment. Macroeconomic fundamentals have continued to strengthen. Financial and corporate
More informationSMSF Investment Seminar Sydney. 18 Oct 2010
SMSF Investment Seminar Sydney 18 Oct 2010 Important Notice This document has been prepared by Asian Masters Fund Limited (Asian Masters Fund). The material that follows is a presentation of general background
More informationGlobal Economic Prospects and the Developing Countries William Shaw December 1999
Global Economic Prospects and the Developing Countries 2000 William Shaw December 1999 Prospects for Growth and Poverty Reduction in Developing Countries Recovery from financial crisis uneven International
More informationHow Serious of a Threat Is Global Deflation?
How Serious of a Threat Is Global Deflation? Nariman Behravesh Farid Abolfathi John Mothersole Dan Ryan Todd Lee Howard Archer Global Insight Teleconference December 17, 22 199s: A Deflationary Wave The
More informationFrom Stability to Prosperity for All
From Stability to Prosperity for All March 2012 PQU Press Presentation Rogier van den Brink, Lead Economist Karl Kendrick Chua, Country Economist Poverty Reduction and Economic Management (PREM) Unit World
More informationPoland s Economic Prospects
Poland s Economic Prospects Unicredit Conference Warsaw, June 8, 11 Mark Allen Senior IMF Resident Representative for Central and Eastern Europe Recovery is driven by domestic demand Contributions to Real
More informationInvestor Presentation. August 2013
Investor Presentation August 013 1 Some of the information in this presentation may contain projections or other forward-looking statements regarding future events or the future financial performance of
More information2016 ARTICLE IV CONSULTATION PRESS RELEASE; STAFF REPORT; AND STATEMENT BY THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR FOR VIETNAM
July 216 VIETNAM IMF Country Report No. 16/24 216 ARTICLE IV CONSULTATION PRESS RELEASE; STAFF REPORT; AND STATEMENT BY THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR FOR VIETNAM Under Article IV of the IMF s Articles of Agreement,
More informationMexico: 2016 IMF ARTICLE IV CONSULTATION
Mexico: 2016 IMF ARTICLE IV CONSULTATION Wilson Center, January 9, 2017 Western Hemisphere Department International Monetary Fund BACKGROUND Growth in Economic Activity and Employment Have Remained Stable
More informationEconomics Vietnam: stability is key
Economics Vietnam: stability is key DBS Group Research 27 June 2017 Concerns are rising that Vietnam may be aiming for faster growth at the expense of stability Rising domestic leverage and non-performing
More informationMonetary Policy: A Key Driver for Long Term Macroeconomic Stability
Monetary Policy: A Key Driver for Long Term Macroeconomic Stability Julio Velarde Governor Central Bank of Peru March 2016 Agenda 1. Peru s growth is based on strong fundamentals 2. Recent economic developments
More informationRECENT EVOLUTION AND OUTLOOK OF THE MEXICAN ECONOMY BANCO DE MÉXICO OCTOBER 2003
OCTOBER 23 RECENT EVOLUTION AND OUTLOOK OF THE MEXICAN ECONOMY BANCO DE MÉXICO 2 RECENT DEVELOPMENTS OUTLOOK MEDIUM-TERM CHALLENGES 3 RECENT DEVELOPMENTS In tandem with the global economic cycle, the Mexican
More information1. Macroeconomic Highlights
1. Macroeconomic Highlights ht Macroeconomic Highlights Resilient growth over the last 2 years, despite the global economic slowdown Banking industry robust with high level of CAR and low NPLN. In 2008
More informationAPPENDIX: A SNAPSHOT OF INDONESIAN ECONOMIC INDICATORS
APPENDIX: A SNAPSHOT OF INDONESIAN ECONOMIC INDICATORS Appendix Figure : Quarterly and annual GDP growth (percent growth) Appendix Figure : Contributions to GDP expenditures (quarter-on-quarter, seasonally
More informationAAPA Shifting Trade Patterns The Changing Asia Market
AAPA Shifting Trade Patterns The Changing Asia Market Today s objective Provide a 30,000 perspective on the Asian economy and its short-term outlook Focus on three topics 1. Economic growth 2. Trade growth
More informationFINANCE, INEQUALITY AND THE POOR
POLICY OPTIONS AND CHALLENGES FOR DEVELOPING ASIA PERSPECTIVES FROM THE IMF AND ASIA APRIL 19-20, 2007 TOKYO FINANCE, INEQUALITY AND THE POOR THORSTEN BECK THE WORLD BANK ASLI DEMIRGUC-KUNT THE WORLD BANK
More informationAxis Emerging Opportunities Fund Series 1 A Close-Ended Equity Fund (1400 days)
1 Axis Emerging Opportunities Fund Series 1 A Close-Ended Equity Fund (1400 days) Indian Policy Update Demonetisation & GST 2 1 Government policy changes Get ready for structurally higher tax to GDP Demonetisation
More informationZambia s Economic Outlook
Zambia s Economic Outlook F R A N C I S C H I P I M O D I R E C T O R E C O N O M I C S B A N K O F Z A M B I A Z A M B I A I N V E S T M E N T C O N F E R E N C E N O V E M B E R 4, 2 0 1 5 L O N D O
More informationKBank Capital Markets Perspectives 29 February 2016
KBank Capital Markets Perspectives 29 February 2016 Thailand Economic Monitor and BoT Forecast : March 2016 Thailand s economy steadied in February, though domestic demand decelerated slightly from January
More informationGlobal Economic Management and Asia s Responsibility Masahiro Kawai Asian Development Bank Institute
Global Economic Management and Asia s Responsibility Masahiro Kawai Asian Development Bank Institute PECC 18 th General Meeting Economic Crisis and Recovery: Roles for the Asia-Pacific Economies Washington,
More informationTURKEY: RECENT DEVELOPMENTS January March 2018
TURKEY: RECENT DEVELOPMENTS January March 218 3 81 4 698 961 7 34 7 96 9 66 8 98 1 931 1 6 11 2 11 88 11 19 1 883 1 97 12 48 12 112 Per capita GDP tripled while nominal GDP quadrupled in last 1 years 237
More informationModerating External Trade Caused IPI to Hit 3-Month Low at 3%
12 July 2018 ECONOMIC REVIEW May 2018 Industrial Production Index Moderating External Trade Caused IPI to Hit 3-Month Low at 3% IPI meets market estimates. Malaysia s industrial production expands by 3%yoy
More informationThe Outlook for Asian & Australian Economies
The Outlook for Asian & Australian Economies Asian economies maintain stable growth led by domestic demand although growth pace slows down slightly AKI FUKUCHI, YOKO HAGIWARA ECONOMIC RESEARCH OFFICE TOKYO
More informationEurozone Economic Watch. July 2018
Eurozone Economic Watch July 2018 Eurozone: A shift to more moderate growth with increased downward risks BBVA Research - Eurozone Economic Watch July 2018 / 2 Hard data improved in May but failed to recover
More informationTURKEY: RECENT DEVELOPMENTS January June 2018
TURKEY: RECENT DEVELOPMENTS January June 218 3 81 4 698 961 7 34 7 96 9 66 8 98 1 931 1 6 11 2 11 88 11 19 1 883 1 97 12 48 12 112 Per capita GDP tripled while nominal GDP quadrupled in last 1 years 237
More informationSoutheast Asia s Dynamic Economies. Presented by: Manuel Galatas General Manager, BBVA Asia Madrid, 26 April 2011
Southeast Asia s Dynamic Economies Presented by: Manuel Galatas General Manager, BBVA Asia Madrid, 26 April 211 Outline 1 Overview of ASEAN economies 2 Southeast Asian Economies the ASEAN-5 Political landscape
More informationThe Macro-Economic Outlook and the Challenges for the World
The Macro-Economic Outlook and the Challenges for the World Invest Save and Impact Seminar Singapore February 27, 2013 Brian Fabbri President Fabbri Global Economics Visiting Research Fellow, CAMRI, NUS
More informationRussian Federation. Recent Economic Developments and Challenges. October 2015 IMF MOSCOW OFFICE
Russian Federation Recent Economic Developments and Challenges IMF MOSCOW OFFICE October 215 1 Outline Shocks affecting Russia s economy Policy Reaction: Monetary and Fiscal Policy Responses Current economic
More informationFigure 1. Nepal: Recent Fiscal Developments
Jul/Aug Aug/Sept Sept/Oct Oct/Nov Nov/Dec Dec/Jan Jan/Feb Feb/Mar Mar/Apr Apr/May May/Jun Jun/Jul Figure 1. : Recent Fiscal Developments Strong revenue growth combined with subdued capital spending kept
More informationWorld Economy Geopolitics Investment Strategy. The Impact of EU s Sovereign Risks on Turkish Economy. Presentation given by
World Economy Geopolitics Investment Strategy OUTLOOK FOR WORLD S MAJOR FINANCIAL MARKETS The Impact of EU s Sovereign Risks on Turkish Economy Presentation given by Dr. Michael Ivanovitch, President MSI
More informationRIETI Special Seminar. The New Landscape of World Trade with Mega-FTAs and Japan's Strategy. Handout. URATA Shujiro
RIETI Special Seminar The New Landscape of World Trade with Mega-FTAs and Japan's Strategy Handout URATA Shujiro Faculty Fellow, RIETI / Professor of Economics, Graduate School of Asia-Pacific Studies,
More information