Energy Projects in the Mekong Region
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1 CLICK TO EDIT MASTER TITLE STYLE Energy Projects in the Mekong Region IBA Annual Meeting Tokyo IBA Power Law Committee Panel 22th October 2014 B A N G L A D E S H C A M B O D I A I N D O N E S I A L A O P. D. R. M Y A N M A R S I N G A P O R E T H A I L A N D V I E T N A M BANGLADESH CAMBODIA INDONESIA LAO PDR MYANMAR SINGAPORE THAILAND VIETNAM
2 Presentation Outline 1 Greater Mekong Region 2 Energy Project Opportunities 3 Case Studies
3 Presentation Outline 1 Greater Mekong Region 2 Energy Project Opportunities 3 Case Studies
4 DFDL reach From Southeast Asia to the Middle East 4
5 CLMTV + B key indicators: GDP growth Country Population 2013 (M) 2013 GDP per capita (USD) 2011 GDP Growth (%) 2012e GDP Growth (%) 2013e GDP Growth (%) 2014 GDP Growth forecast (%) Cambodia , Laos 6.5 1, Myanmar Thailand , Vietnam , Bangladesh Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database, April 2014
6 2014 Ease of doing business ranking Source: World Bank Doing Business 2014: Understanding Regulations for SMEs
7 Presentation Outline 1 Greater Mekong Region 2 Energy Project Opportunities 3 Case studies
8 Lao PDR: Overview Myanmar Thailand Vietnam Laos Vientiane Snapshot WTO accession: 2013 Population: 6.5 million GDP Growth (IMF): 8.3% (2013e) & 7.8% (2014e) Inflation (World Bank): 4.3% (2012) Planned economy (Large State) Civil/Socialist legal system (PRC & Vietnam) Laos Securities Exchange opened 2011 Key FDI sources: Vietnam, PRC & Thailand Cambodia Singapore
9 Lao PDR: Sector FDI analysis Hydropower Biggest projects Net exporter Agriculture & Forestry Pulp trees, rubber, cassava, bananas & coffee Moratorium (agri) Financial Services Real growth area Tourism New regulations to be released Mining Successful large mines Moratorium (prospecting) Significant M&A activity Hotels Especially in Luang Prabang Railways A key to full development of mining sector Leisure Casinos & Multiplex
10 Myanmar: Profile Myanmar Naypyidaw Yangon Laos Thailand Vietnam Snapshot WTO accession: 1995 Population: 60 million GDP Growth (IMF): 6.8% (2013e) & 6.9% (2014e) Inflation (World Bank): 1.5% (2012) Gradual shift to more democratic governance Presidential elections in 2015 Planned economy (Large State) Common law, Socialist (Military) influence Key FDI sources: PRC, Thailand, Korea & EU Cambodia Singapore
11 Myanmar: Sector FDI analysis Oil & Gas Natural gas exporter Recent on/offshore tenders Huge potential Agriculture, Forestry & Fisheries Livestock, beans & pulses, rice, teak & fisheries No foreign land ownership Services Undeveloped Huge potential (restricted?) Tourism Big 4 and coast Developing rapidly JV required Mining Gold, silver, copper and gems JV required (large scale) New law soon Energy & Infrastructure Inadequate infrastructure Huge potential Manufacturing Industrial zone development PRC, Japan and Korea Telco 2 licences granted (CAPEX) New telco law (rules to come) BTS rollout unclear
12 Vietnam: Overview Myanmar Laos Thailand Vietnam Hanoi Snapshot WTO accession: 2007 (de facto caps) Population: 91.5 million GDP Growth (IMF): 5.3 (2013e) & 5.4% (2014e) Inflation (World Bank): 9.1% (2012) Planned Economy (Large State) Socialist/Civil legal system Key FDI sources (GSO): Japan, Korea & Taiwan Cambodia Ho Chi Minh City Singapore
13 Vietnam: Sector FDI analysis Oil & Gas Well developed Sovereignty issues? PVN involvement Agriculture & Aquaculture Highly fragmented Rice, coffee & fisheries Energy Net importer (coal) Low tariffs, reforming Telco Highly competitive High penetration Mining Rich & diverse minerals Largely undeveloped Political Financial Services Large growth potential Foreign investment caps Cash-based economy Manufacturing Textiles, garment, electronics & food Highest FDI (Japan) Real Estate Deflating? Reducing inventory Residential reform?
14 Cambodia: Overview Myanmar Vietnam Laos Thailand Cambodia Phnom Penh Snapshot: WTO accession: 2004 Population: 15.4 million GDP Growth (IMF): 7.0% (2013e) & 7.2% (2014e) Inflation (World Bank): 2.9% (2012) Market Economy (Small State) Civil (French/Germanic)/common law influences Cambodian Securities Exchange opened 2011 Key FDI sources (CDC 2013): PRC, Korea, Malaysia & Taiwan Singapore
15 Cambodia: Sector FDI analysis Energy No national grid Oil & gas, hydro potential Open market, high tariffs Agriculture & Forestry Rubber, cassava, timber & rice (moratorium) Attractive incentives Financial Services Banking/MFIs saturated Insurance growth potential Tourism Angkor Wat & coast Casinos Rapid growth Mining Gold, bauxite & gems Mid-stage exploration Developing Real Estate Phnom Penh & coast Buoyant residential Commercial development Manufacturing Garments, textile & footwear Minimum wage issues Telco Saturated Consolidation
16 Thailand: Overview Myanmar Bangkok Vietnam Laos Thailand Cambodia Snapshot: WTO accession: 1995 Population: 67.4 million GDP Growth (IMF): 3.1% (2013) & 5.2% (2014e) Inflation (World Bank): 2.8% (2013) Market Economy (free enterprise) Civil/common law influences Thai Securities Exchange opened 1975 Key FDI sources (BOT 2013 Jan-Jun): Japan, ASEAN, Singapore, Malaysia, Taiwan, China, Hong Kong, India, USA Samui Phuket Singapore
17 Thailand: Sector FDI analysis Energy Complete National Grid (99% electrification) Natural Gas and Hydro Open market, high tariffs Agriculture & Forestry Rice, Rubber, Cassava Attractive incentives Financial Services Banking/MFIs saturated Insurance growth potential Tourism World s #1 Tourist Destination 2013 Bangkok and Phuket Islands and Beaches Mining World top 5 in Tin & Tungsten Well-developed Real Estate Bangkok & coasts Buoyant residential Commercial development Manufacturing Textiles, Electronics, Light Manufacturing Large migrant worker population Telco Saturated Consolidation 3G / 4G contract issues
18 Presentation Outline 1 Greater Mekong Region 2 Energy Project Opportunities 3 Case studies
19 Case Study (Cambodia): Transmission Line -Cambodia-Thailand Re- financing Type: ADB / Thai Exim Bank ANZ Royal Size: USD 10 million + Structure of the project ADB Thai Exim Bank PE Fund Local shareholders ANZ Royal Challenges No government guarantee Cross-border project Syndicated loan FTB > USD 20 million PPA EGAT CTPL EDC Power Transmission Agreement Concession Agreement MIME Transmission Lines + Sub-stations Security structure Share pledge Licenses / contract All movable + immovable assets Receivables + bank accounts 19
20 SHA SK Engineering Const Konepo Ratch Lao Holding State Enterprise Concession Agreement/Lease Agreement Domestic PPA (10%) Take out Case Study (Laos): Xe-Pian Xe-Namnoy Power Plant Financing Type: Thai banks Size: USD 1.02 billion ADB K-Exim Debt Thai Banks Consortium USD Tranche USD 357M Future Accession Original Lenders THB Tranche eq USD 357M EPC Contractor (SK) Financing Documents Equity USD 306M EPC Contract PNPC 100% GoL EdL EGAT Crossborder PPA (20%) 100% Challenges First Thai financing to non-thai exclusive investment FOREX risk as Thai Banks finance Flexibility: Structure permitting postclosing accession by multilateral lenders Account structure - change of central bank policy on requirement for equity subscription on domestic bank account Security structure Stand-alone Lao Law security interests over distinct categories of Project Assets situated in Laos Thai Law assignment of EGAT PPA, Thai Pledge of Collateral Accounts, etc. English Law assignments of each English Law Project Document and Backstop English Law debenture, etc. 20
21 Case Study (Myanmar): Gas Power Plant Financing Type: IFIs Size: USD 100 million + Structure of the project Equity Consortium of Korean sponsors Gas Power Plant Myanmar Entity Project Company > USD 100 million Debt TBD Off-taker Myanmar Government Challenges No previous true project finance precedent in Myanmar Difficult to securitize loan Difficult to obtain sovereign guarantees Difficult negotiation with gov. (Ministry of Electric Power, Myanmar Electricity Power Enterprise) Experience/expertise with documentation No model documentation or gov. policy on IPPs, etc. Anticipated security structure Mortgage on long term lease Share pledge 21
22 Case Study (Vietnam): Thermal Power Plants & Equipment Financing Type: Chinese Development Bank Size: USD 2 billion + Structure of the project CDB Government Guarantee Challenges No major challenge loan to the government > USD 2 billion MOF Security structure No security > USD 2 billion PV / EVN Power equipment 22
23 Potential RE financiers Who will potentially provide funds to the renewable energy projects in Southeast Asia? International bilateral financial institutions and development banks International private commercial banks Funds Local banks National development banks
24 Concluding remarks
25 Thank you Martin Desautels Managing Partner 25
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