Economic Research Department Acciones & Valores

Transcription

1 Acciones & Valores

2 INTERNATIONAL MARKETS Stock ended on negative terrain, waiting for results on stress tests in Spanish banks after shares reduced to lower losses due to news that the stress tests on Spanish banks revealed that the capital deficit of billion euro was lower than estimated. However, the market is still awaiting the review by Moody's credit rating for the Iberian economy. On the other hand, the U.S. economy fell after news that the purchasing manager s index of economic activity fell more than expected by investors for the month of September. UNITED STATES STOCK INDEX 27/09/2012 Ch% UNITED STATES Dow Jones 13485, ,13-0,36% S&P , ,52-0,39% NASDAQ 3136, ,228-0,65% U.S. stock markets closed in negative territory after news that the purchasing managers index on economic activity fell more than expected by investors for the month of September. In addition, investors preferred to take profits amid greater uncertainty, before knowing the results on stress tests of Spanish banks. On the other hand, the confidence index from the University of Michigan showed a loss, falling to 78.2, below than the estimates by the market of 79. The U.S. consumer spending rose 0.5% for the month of August, as households had to pay higher gasoline prices, while factory activity in the central region contracted this month, generating major concerns by weak economic growth. However, demand growth has slowed in recent months by households, business and export sectors. In some companies, corporate behavior exhibited increases in an environment of uncertainty for investors against high-yield assets, which Research in Motion rose 8.3% after the BlackBerry maker reported a loss for the second quarter Fiscal below expectations and earnings that beat estimates. DOW JONES S&P NASDAQ

3 EUROPE STOCK INDEX 27/09/2012 Ch% EUROPE STOXX , ,26-2,07% FTSE , ,07-0,65% DAX 7290, ,15-1,01% Stock markets in Europe closed lower as investors awaited the results of stress tests on the Spanish banking system, and a review of the Moody's credit rating for the Iberian economy. Meanwhile, the euro zone inflation accelerated to a 2.7% for the month of September compared to the 2.6% compared to previous data, mainly because the rise in energy prices by 8.9% for the month of August. Spain Stress tests on Iberian banks were performed during the day, where an independent audit noted that Spain's banks would need 59,300 million euros of capital and in the worst case scenario, which does not consider tax credits or future plans of banks to increase their own capital, will be a 6.5% contraction in the Spanish economy between 2012 and Results of stress tests help the Spanish government to determine how much money will provide a line of credit with the European Union agreeing to recapitalize its troubled banking sector. The trade balance of payments in Spain for the month of July showed a surplus worth 500 million euros that contrasts with the deficit amounting to 880 million euros of the previous month. This result reveals the issuing bank is achieving a significant surplus of the services balance, and a reduction in the deficit in income and current transfers. France French President, François Hollande, announced a rise in taxes on high incomes and businesses within its budget. The president seeks to show that the country has enough fiscal discipline to stay in the euro zone. The budget aims to save 30,000 million euros to keep the promise of deficit reduction efforts within the currency bloc's leaders, and contain the debt crisis. However, we must remember that the bad economic data, especially unemployment, has led to a stagnation of the economy, therefore, investors are concerned about meeting the deficit targets. DAX FTSE100 STOXX

4 ASIA STOCK INDEX 27/09/2012 Ch% ASIA NIKKEY 8949, ,16-0,89% TOPIX 745,59 737,42-1,10% HANG SENG 20762, ,38 0,38% Asian stocks closed up for a second day after optimistic expectations that Spain will overcome its deficit, which will help Europe contain its debt crisis and overcome the global economic slowdown. China The stock closed up in China although market liquidity begins to be diminished by the banking system, which provides the coming festivities. Moreover, investors were disappointed by the lack of a monetary stimulus by regulators, although not yet completely ruled out because the Chinese economy is very weak, and a further drop may cause new bailouts. Meanwhile, investors were optimistic about initial requests for unemployment benefits in the U.S., which were lower than expected and below the previous data. The Hang Seng index of Hong Kong stock market was raised with an increase of 0.38%. Japan En Japón, las bolsas cerraron a la baja después de conocerse que la producción industrial en la tercera economía más grande se redujera, mostrando una caída de -1.3%, y por debajo del dato anterior de -1.0%. Así mismo, los inversionistas se mostraron inquietos frente a la desaceleración del crecimiento chino y al plan europeo para la recuperación de la crisis. Por su parte el índice Nikkei de la bolsa de Tokio mostró un retroceso del -0.89% y el índice Topix una caída del -1.10%. In Japan, stock markets closed low after news that industrial production in the third largest economy was reduced, showing a decrease of -1.3%, and below the previous period of -1.0%. Likewise, investors fretted against slowing growth in China and European plan for crisis recovery. Meanwhile the Nikkei index of the Tokyo Stock Exchange showed a decline of -0.89% and the Topix index fell by -1.10%. TOPIX NIKKEI HANG SENG

5 LATIN AMERICAN MARKETS STOCK INDEX 27/09/2012 Ch% LATIN AMERICA BOVESPA 60239, ,11-1,78% IPSA 4211, ,42 0,45% IGBVL 21736, ,7-0,18% Major Latin American markets closed in mixed terrain, being IPSA the one with a higher climb of 0.45%, after meeting a report showing the results in stress tests of Spanish banks had a capital deficit lower than estimated. BOVESPA IGBVL IPSA LOCAL MARKET STOCK INDEX 27/09/2012 Ch% COLOMBIA IGBC 14106, ,39-0,01% COLCAP 1695, ,5-0,13% COL , ,41 0,43% The IGBC ended the day with impairment of (-0.01%) with a value of (14,105.39) units, while the COLCAP showed an impairment of (-0.13%) reaching (1693.5) units. Moreover, the Board of the Central Bank decided to leave its interest rate unchanged. Thus the base rate for repo auctions will continue at 4.75%. The share most valued was CANACOL with (+5.42%) reaching ($ 876) and PFHELMBANK with (+4.39%) reaching ($ 476). The stock which presented significant impairments was ISA (-3.84%) falling to ($ 9.520) and Nutresa with (-3.58%) to ( USD). IGBC COLCAP COL

6 Rendimiento Market Closure BONDS US Treasuries Y Y 7Y Y Y M Plazo (Años) Tasas Vto 9/28/2012 7/5/2012 8/31/2012 USGG6M Index 0,5 0,13 0,14 0,13 USGG2YR Index 2 0,23 0,29 0,22 USGG5YR Index 5 0,62 0,67 0,59 USGG7YR Index 7 1,04 1,05 1,00 USGG10YR Index 10 1,62 1,60 1,55 USGG30YR Index 30 2,81 2,72 2,67 9/28/2012 7/5/2012 8/31/2012 The 10-year Treasuries fell after news that the results in the stress test for Spanish banks showed a deficit for the Iberian banks capital, which was lower than market expectations, leading to a decline in asset demand shelter. Treasuries had shown increases, by bad U.S. economic data on consumer spending and personal income, showing signs of stagnation in the world's largest economy. Public Debt Colombia MEC SEN Millones TES TASA FIJA Apertura Mínimo Máximo Cierre Volumen Apertura. Minimo Maximo Cierre. Volumen. CUPON 6 04/17/13 4,69 4,69 4,69 4, ,69 4,69 4,69 4, CUPON 10 1/4 11/14/13 4,84 4,831 4,84 4, ,829 4,801 4,829 4, CUPON 9 1/4 05/14/14 4,8 4,8 4,9 4, ,783 4,78 4,889 4, CUPON 13 1/2 09/12/ ,045 5,045 5,045 5, CUPON 8 10/28/15 5,22 5,22 5,28 5, ,24 5,22 5,274 5, CUPON 7 1/4 06/15/16 5,337 5,335 5,375 5, ,351 5,33 5,374 5, CUPON 11 1/4 10/24/18 5,725 5,724 5,75 5, ,723 5,72 5,75 5, CUPON 11 07/24/20 6,08 6,08 6,11 6, ,073 6,073 6,108 6, CUPON 10 07/24/24 6,32 6,314 6,35 6, ,312 6,31 6,35 6, CUPON 7 1/2 08/26/26 6,465 6,465 6,505 6, ,465 6,465 6,505 6, MEC SEN Millones de Unidades TES UVR Apertura Maximo Minimo Cierre Volumen Apertura. Maximo. Minimo. Cierre. Volumen. CUPON 5 1/4 03/20/13 2,062 2,062 2,062 2, ,039 2,027 2,058 2, CUPON 7 02/25/15 2,19 2,17 2,19 2, ,218 2,218 2,222 2, CUPON 4 1/4 05/17/17 107, , , ,743 2,56 2,5 2,603 2,5 480 CUPON 4 3/4 02/23/23 2,93 2,93 2,93 2, ,113 2,999 3,113 2, In the SEN, the most traded securities during the day were the TES fixed rate notes due May 2014 and October 2015 which amounts traded were of $ 1.51 billion and $ 871 billion pesos respectively. In the MEC, the titles most traded were the TES due July 2024 which amount traded was of $ 282,000 million pesos.

7 4/1/2012 8/14/ /27/2014 5/10/2016 9/22/2017 2/4/2019 6/18/ /31/2021 3/15/2023 7/27/2024 Rendimiento Rendimiento Market Closure UVR Deuda Publica Interna 3.6 Feb Jul 20 Jul Mar 13 Feb 15 May Oct 15 Oct 18 Jul 22 Ago May 14 Jun Abr Plazo 9/28/2012 9/21/2012 8/31/2012 Plazos (Años) 9/28/2012 9/21/2012 8/31/2012 TES curve showed a steepening fixed rate during the day, with yields on securities maturing in October 2015 the ones with greatest decreases, falling 5.5 pb. The TES maturing in July 2024 presented an opening of 6.32%, a maximum of 6.35%, a minimum of 6314% and a closure of 6.345% closure. For monday, we hope that these titles will be between 6.23% and 6.49% with intermediate levels between 6.39% and 6.43%. Tasas duración 9/28/2012 9/21/2012 8/31/2012 COLOM /15/2013 Govt 0,28-11,594 0,015 0,603 COLOM /22/2014 Govt 2,65 0,874 0,85 1,011 COLOM /27/2017 Govt 4,21 1,529 1,568 1,63 COLOM /18/2019 Govt 5,75 1,96 2,029 1,898 COLOM /12/2021 Govt 7,96 2,416 2,438 2,509 COLOM /21/2024 Govt 8,64 3,041 3,046 3,062 COLOM /15/2027 Govt 9,31 4,933 4,935 5,105 COLOM /18/2037 Govt 13,46 3,969 3,974 3,98 COLOM /18/2041 Govt 15,17 3,994 4,033 3,969 8 Globales 6 4 Feb May 24 Sep 37 Ene Mar 19 Jul 21-4 Ene 17-6 Dic Ene Plazo (Años) 9/28/2012 9/21/2012 8/31/2012

8 Currency Currencies 27/09/2012 Ch% EUROPE EUR 1,2913 1,285-0,49% GBP 1,6235 1,6147-0,54% CHF 0,9373 0,9404 0,33% TRY 1,7883 1,7975 0,51% LATIN AMERICA COP 1798,5 1800,3-0,10% BRL 2,0296 2,0262 0,17% MXN 12, ,872 0,35% CLP 471,25 474,7 0,73% ASIA JPY 77,61 78,04 0,55% CNY 6,3024 6,2847-0,28% Dollar Dollar ended the day with a fall of (-0.10%) in ($ 1,800), having registered an opening of ($ 1,799), a maximum of ($ 1,802) and a minimum of ($ ), ending the day with a revaluates Colombian peso. For Monday it is expected the dollar will be between ($ 1.797) and ($ 1,802). Euro The euro showed devaluations of (- 0.50%) to (U.S. $ ) after purchasing managers data and lost consumer confidence forecasts, increased demand for riskier assets. For Monday, it is expected that the common currency will be between (U.S. $ ) and (U.S. $ ). COMMODITIES Commodity 27/09/2012 Ch% Crude WTI (Future) 91,85 92,05 0,22% Crude BRENT (Future) 112,01 112,09 0,07% Gas (Future) 3,297 3,319 0,67% Gold 1777, ,95-0,24% Cupper ,78% Brent crude raised because of economic reforms announced about Spain eased temporarily investor concerns about the debt crisis in the euro zone. As for WTI crude rose for a second day amid major preoccupations of the Middle East on the possible disruption of oil supplies. Gold has fallen behind because of monetary measures announced by the central banks around the world.

9 Global Disclaimer form. Therefore, it is necessary for investors who intend to participate in transactions, and for purposes of having the complete and utter precision, consult all the documents provided by the promotion. Similarly, investors they should, on their own, the legal and financial analysis for purposes of making any investment decision. The values and numbers entered here are obtained from sources believed to be reliable market such as Bloomberg, Reuters and the Issuers. The scores made in the report should not be considered as investment advice nor as a substitute for the grades given by certified credit agencies such as Moody's or Standard & Poor's. These ratings are only quantitative, not qualitative factors include and depend on the financial information available on the market at the time to be prepared. The opinions, estimates and projections in this report reflect the current judgment of the author as of the date of the report, and it is clarified that the content of the information contained herein may be subject to change without notice. The remuneration of the authors is not associated with the results of the report or the recommendations made. The presentation and any preliminary paper on the products herein do not constitute a public offer binding, therefore, both the presentation and any other document can be supplemented or corrected Acciones & Valores S.A. Department of Economic Research Héctor Wilson Tovar García Análisis Macroeconómico Director de Investigaciones wtovar@accivalores.com (0571) (1300) Ana Milena Franco Análisis Renta Fija Ana.franco@accivalores.com (0571) (1833) Cristian Camilo Lancheros Análisis Mercados Internacionales Cristian.lancheros@accivalores.com (0571) (1306) Jorge Eduardo Bello Análisis Renta Variable jorge.bello@accivalores.com Roberto Carlos Paniagua Análisis MILA Investigaciones@accivalores.com Kelly Mateus Análisis MILA Investigaciones@accivalores.com Alejandro Alayón Análisis MILA Investigaciones@accivalores.com Rocio Alayón Análisis MILA Investigaciones@accivalores.com