Want Big Fish? Fish Where the Big Fish Swim Updated 2015

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Cecil Phelps
6 years ago
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that trend until the weight of the evidence shows or

1 Want Big Fish? Fish Where the Big Fish Swim Updated 2015 The art of Technical Analysis, for it is an art, is to identify a trend reversal at a relatively early stage and then ride that trend until the weight of the evidence shows or proves that the trend has reversed. Martin Pring Clarify, Simplify & Multiply A Light for My Path. Psalms 119:105b

2 Disclaimer U.S. Government Required Disclaimer Commodity Futures Commission Futures and Options trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don t trade with money you can t afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this training. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results. CFTC RULE 4.41 HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. All Materials presented are for training purposes only. Traders should paper trade any new method prior to risk of personal capital.

Founder & Lead Technical Analysis at Active Trend http://activetrendtrading.com/ Organizer Bay Area Money Makers Host: How to Make Money Stocks Market Stock Talk Dennis W. Wilborn, Sr., P.E.

3 Founder & Lead Technical Analysis at Active Trend Organizer Bay Area Money Makers Host: How to Make Money Stocks Market Stock Talk Dennis W. Wilborn, Sr., P.E. Featured Guest IBD Radio Show Trader since 1988 IBD student since about 1993 Affiliate with Market Technician Assc. Certified Candlestick Technician Presenter Golden Gate University in Technical Analysis

4 Want Big Fish? Fish Where the Big Fish Swim! But, Where is that?

5 Want Big Fish? Where is that? What Lake? But this isn t the total answer! - If you fish in the right lake but fish from the dock your results will be based on luck! What side of the Lake? Refining the search! What Cove? Refining the search! What time of year? Refining the search! What time of Day? Refining the search! So the fisherman does his homework and does everything right there is still no guarantee he will catch fish!

6 Want Big Stocks? Where do the Big Stock Swim? What s the Lake? IBD Which side of Lake? IBD Special List What Cove? IBD 50 What time of year/day? Big Picture & Market Pulse & Current Outlook

7 Want Big Stocks? In 2010 I began tracking the initial IBD 100 of 2010 to assess its strength as a stock picking system. Did this list really point traders and investors to the Trophy sized Stocks? The results were pretty remarkable even if one had only tracked and traded the original list for the year. Results for the Top 10 stocks from that list

8 Impressive One Year Results But what about other years? Thus the journey began! Want Big Stocks? Went to my beginning list from 2009! Great results! In 2011 the IBD 100 was converted to the IBD 50 to provide a more focused list. If one would have taken the first list from this year was there enough movement in the price action to support a profitably Trend Following Strategy? Great Results! Went to the IBD Archives for 2007 & 2008: Great Results! Five years worth of data with each year leading to Great Results! Added each year through 2015 Great Results! I think there may be a trend here!

9 Results 2007 Low to High Range Trades would have required patience and diligence

10 Results 2008 Bear Market: Low to High Range Low Priced Stocks would not have bought But Wait, There s More!

11 Results 2008 Beginning of Year to Pre-Low High First Clue of the Cyclic Nature Of the IBD 50/100

12 Want Big Stocks? Cherry Picking? Distractor Say You re Cherry Picking! I say, Really? What does the study show? Using the S&P as the benchmark how many stocks on the list beat the S&P in the tradable rally from High to Low?

13 Want Big Stocks? Cherry Picking? 2009 Lowest % of Stocks beating S&P 2013 S&P Gain for the Year 29%

14 What about 2015?

15 What about 2015?

16 What about 2015?

17 What about 2015?

18 What to Expect for 2016 Based on 8 years of tracking 1. Similar pattern of IBD 50 stocks outperforming the Indexes 2. A significant number of stocks with high double digit moves to the upside & downside 3. Expect a similar pattern to past years even if 2016 is like 2008

19 Bonus Slides Running List and Prep Mechanics

20 Want Big Stocks? Prep 170 stocks to review is too many.. 50 stocks to review is to many.. My routine to hone down the list to my Action List 1. Review IBD 50 Thumbnails Tuesday & Saturday 2. Sort the Running List Weekly based on my Entries requirement 3. Sort the IBD 50 Daily 4. Sort my Action List Daily (This list change very seldom) At each step the best stocks float to the surface

21 Honing the List Down: Twice a Week Review Want Big Stocks? Prep

22 Want Big Stocks? Prep Twice a Week Review

23 Want Big Stocks? Prep Weekly Sort of Running List stock to 10 in less than a second - Similar sort on IBD 50 after swapping the Outs & Ins - Now What?

24 Want Big Stocks? Prep Do the stocks meet my criteria for: - Volume Profile - Pattern Profile - Option Availability I continue to tighten the requirements on the Big List until just a few of the best remain! I now have a list that I can trade with no concern for - Fundamentals - Volume - Other Variables I can now focus just on Active Trend Criteria and building a portfolio of great growth stocks..

25 Want Big Stocks? Prep The Action List : My Search Is Done - Daily sort of Action List -This List Does Not Change much during the year I know that between this list and Index Leveraged ETFs there are several 100% winners Patience & Trust in a Winning System

Want Big Fish? Fish Where the Big Fish Swim Updated 2016

Want Big Fish? Fish Where the Big Fish Swim Updated 2016 The art of Technical Analysis, for it is an art, is to identify a trend reversal at a relatively early stage and then ride that trend until the