Want Big Fish? Fish Where the Big Fish Swim Updated 2016

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Denis Hoover
5 years ago
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The art of Technical Analysis, for it is an

relatively early stage and then ride that

shows or proves that the trend has reversed.

1 Want Big Fish? Fish Where the Big Fish Swim Updated 2016 The art of Technical Analysis, for it is an art, is to identify a trend reversal at a relatively early stage and then ride that trend until the weight of the evidence shows or proves that the trend has reversed. Martin Pring Clarify, Simplify & Multiply A Light for My Path. Psalms 119:105b

2 Disclaimer U.S. Government Required Disclaimer Commodity Futures Trading Commission Futures and Options trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don t trade with money you can t afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this training. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results. CFTC RULE 4.41 HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. All Materials presented are for training purposes only. Traders should paper trade any new method prior to risk of personal capital.

Founder & Lead Technical Analysis at Active Trend Trading http://activetrendtrading.com/ Organizer Bay Area Money Makers Host: How to Make Money Trading Stocks Market Stock Talk Dennis W. Wilborn, Sr.

3 Founder & Lead Technical Analysis at Active Trend Trading Organizer Bay Area Money Makers Host: How to Make Money Trading Stocks Market Stock Talk Dennis W. Wilborn, Sr., P.E. Featured Guest IBD Radio Show Trader since 1988 IBD student since about 1993 Affiliate with Market Technician Assc. Certified Candlestick Technician Presenter Golden Gate University on Technical Analysis Past Forbes Contributor

4 Where to go for Big Fish? Fish Where the Big Fish Swim! But, Where is that?

5 Where to go for Big Fish? Where is that? What Lake? But this isn t the total answer! - If you fish in the right lake but fish from the dock your results will be based on luck! What side of the Lake? Refining the search! What Cove? Refining the search! What time of year? Refining the search! What time of Day? Refining the search! So the fisherman does his homework and does everything right there is still no guarantee he will catch fish!

6 Where to go for Big Stocks? Where do the Big Stock Swim? What s the Lake? IBD Which side of Lake? IBD Special List What Cove? IBD 50 What time of year/day? Big Picture & Market Pulse & Current Outlook

7 Where to go for Big Stocks? In 2010 I began tracking the initial IBD 100 of 2010 to assess its strength as a stock picking system. Did this list really point traders and investors to the Trophy sized Stocks? The results were pretty remarkable even if one had only tracked and traded the original list for the year. Results for the Top 10 stocks from that list

8 Impressive One Year Results But what about other years? Thus the journey began! Where to go for Big Stocks? Went to my beginning list from 2009! Great results! In 2011 the IBD 100 was converted to the IBD 50 to provide a more focused list. If one would have taken the first list from this year was there enough movement in the price action to support a profitably Trend Following Strategy? Great Results! Went to the IBD Archives for 2007 & 2008: Great Results! Five years worth of data with each year leading to Great Results! Added each year through 2016 Great Results! I think there may be a trend here!

9 Results 2007 Low to High Range Trades would have required patience and diligence

10 Results 2008 Bear Market: Low to High Range Low Priced Stocks would not have bought But Wait, There s More!

11 Results 2008 Beginning of Year to Pre-Low High First Clue of the Cyclic Nature Of the IBD 50/100

12 Where to go for Big Stocks? Cherry Picking? Distractor Say You re Cherry Picking! My response, Really? What does the study show? Using the S&P as the benchmark how many stocks on the list beat the S&P in the tradable rally from High to Low?

13 Where to go for Big Stocks? Cherry Picking? 2009 Lowest % of Stocks beating S&P 2016 S&P Gain for the Year 9.54%

14 What about 2016?

15 What about 2016?

16 What about 2016?

17 What about 2016?

18 What to Expect for 2017 Based on 10 years of tracking 1. Similar pattern of IBD 50 stocks outperforming the Indexes 2. A significant number of stocks with high double digit moves to the upside & downside Be prepared to meet the opportunities when they appear

19 What else is on the Radar While the IBD 50 provides an excellent place to find big winners, what about when the fish aren t biting? - In 2016 we added a premium stable of leveraged ETFs to take advantage of Seasonality in things like Gold, Oil, Financials and BioTech - The Next Video will provide additional information about how these help round what we trade at Active Trend Trading Watch for the notification of our next video about the Active Trend Trading System to be released early in 2017.

20 Bonus Slides Running List and Prep Mechanics

21 Want Big Stocks? Prep 170 stocks to review is too many.. 50 stocks to review is to many.. My routine to hone down the list to my Action List 1. Simple Sort for the Best of the Best 2. Review IBD 50 Thumbnails Tuesday & Saturday 3. Sort the Running List Weekly based on my Entries requirement 4. Sort my Action List Daily (This list change very seldom) At each step the best stocks float to the surface

22 The Sort Want Big Stocks? Prep 1. Download IBD 50 Twice per week 2. Set up sort based on Lee Tanner s Criteria Comp Rating EPS RS Rating Up/Down Volume 0.90 Annual Earnings Growth 25% Quarterly Earnings Growth 25% Quarterly Sales Growth 20% ROE 17% PTM 18% ROE + PTM 30% Go to the IBD site

23 Honing the List Down: Once a Week Review Want Big Stocks? Prep

24 Want Big Stocks? Prep Once a week review

25 Want Big Stocks? Prep Also Check: 1. Sector Leaders 2. Stock Analysis 3. IPO s 4. Big Cap High Demand Stocks page B12

26 Want Big Stocks? Prep Weekly Sort of Running List stock to 10 in less than a second - Similar sort on IBD 50 after swapping the Outs & Ins - Now What?

27 Want Big Stocks? Prep Do the stocks meet my criteria for: - Volume Profile - Pattern Profile - Option Availability I continue to tighten the requirements on the Big List until just a few of the best remain! I now have a list that I can trade with no concern for - Fundamentals - Volume - Other Variables I can now focus just on Active Trend Trading Criteria and building a portfolio of great growth stocks..

28 Want Big Stocks? Prep The Action List : My Search Is Done - Daily sort of Action List -This List Does Not Change much during the year I know that between this list and Index Leveraged ETFs there are several 100% winners Patience & Trust in a Winning System

29 Index Seasonality Monthly Note: January Effect, Summer Effect and End of Year Effect Days of the Month Monday Effect

30 Index Seasonality How to Use It Monthly Note: January Effect, Summer Effect and End of Year Effect Sell in May and Go Away? No The IBD 50 and Running List follow a pattern similar to the Indexes 1. Peak in Jan-Feb 2. Feb-April: Pull back to yearly low 3. May-Aug: Put in the Yearly High 4. Sept-Oct: Pullback 5. Oct-Dec: End of Year Run The next BAMM Webinar will cover Seasonality of Commodities, Financials & Biotech's

31 Questions

ATTS Objectives: Provide a clear & simple trading systems for busy

Early Warning Alerts for Index ETFs: Yearly membership $999 limited

32 ATTS Objectives: Provide a clear & simple trading systems for busy people! So they can become Wise, Profitable and Winning Traders! 1. Active Trend Trading Membership: $54.99 per month but you save 40% limit time: $ Early Warning Alerts for Index ETFs: Yearly membership $999 limited time: $399.00/Year Save more than 60% For the special membership offer:

Want Big Fish? Fish Where the Big Fish Swim Updated 2015

Want Big Fish? Fish Where the Big Fish Swim Updated 2015 The art of Technical Analysis, for it is an art, is to identify a trend reversal at a relatively early stage and then ride that trend until the