The Tsupitero Newsletter is a daily Technical Analysis report by Miko S. Sayo. The report is divided into three parts:

Transcription

1 The Tsupitero Newsletter is a daily Technical Analysis report by Miko S. Sayo. The report is divided into three parts: 1. A daily Technical Analysis report of the PSEi; 2. A comprehensive Technical Analysis report of three (3) of the most active and volatile stocks during the day; and, 3. Recommended stocks for tsupita (short-term) trades, and, notes for Tsupiteros, which includes the following: the top 10 stocks that foreign funds are buying and selling; the top 10 most active stocks; the top 10 most volatile stocks; and, the top 10 gainers and losers for the day. These statistics would exclude stocks that are illiquid. Each of the comprehensive Technical Analysis report of the three (3) most volatile and active stocks during the day is divided between a Technical Analysis for Tsupiteros (short-term traders) and a Technical Analysis for Position Traders. Each of these Technical Analyses will include such data as its daily chart, support, resistance, trend, average true range, relative strength vs. the Phisix, a discussion of the technical character of the stock and a recommendation. Included also in the analysis of each of these stocks are other practical information such as the top three buying and selling brokers for the past five days, the amount that these brokers bought and sold for the past five days, the net foreign buying and/or selling for the past five days and the news or rumor currently affecting the movement of the stock in the short-term. With regards to the "Recommended stocks for Tsupita" section of the newsletter, I usually choose around 3 stocks that are actually my best bets for a short-term trade or for a Tsupita. With each stock recommendation, there is a short technical description of the stock as well as my suggested trigger for buying the stock. The cost of a one-month subscription to the Tsupitero newsletter is P1, To subscribe to the Tsupitero newsletter, please Miko at miko@tsupitero.com. One may pay by simply making an over-the-counter deposit to the following bank account: BPI Savings Account No Account Name Michael S. Sayo The Tsupitero newsletter will be ed everyday on or before 9:00 in the evening.

2 The PSEi (May 17, 2011) Open 4, High 4, Low 4, Close 4, Value P4,515,717,034 Advances 53 Declines 89 Unchanged 37 Foreign Buying P1,441,124,288 Continuing to Drop, Testing Support at 4250 Foreign Selling P1,675,393,360 Charts is courtesy of Metastock Short-term Traders/Tsupiteros: Medium-term/Position Traders: Support 4170 / 4250 Support 4160 Resistance 4344 / 4540 Resistance 4413 / 5000 Trend Sideways to Up ATR 40pts. Recommendation Buy if support holds Trend Sideways ATR 90pts. Recommendation Hold The PSEi continued to drop lower today and has even accelerated to the downside. Obviously, the market was not able to hold above yesterday s low at I guess a number of people also thought that that level would hold so, when it broke, it triggered some stops. Still, not all hope is lost for the bulls and prices may still rebound off its support at It is still possible that prices might just be correcting right now and will once again retest its resistances at 4344 in the next couple of days. However, if the market is going to make a new high, prices must rebound right about now. The market may drop to as low as 4170 and still climb back up near 4344, however, if that happens, we may have a tougher time breaking above the 4344 level. Foreign funds were net sellers today by P234 million. Again, unless we break above the resistances at 4344 to 4413, foreign funds will likely just be trading right now just like the rest of the market. Tsupiteros are now recommended to buy if prices are able to hold above the 4250 level. Position-traders, on the other hand, are recommended to just hold and use a break below the 4160 level as your mental stop.

3 Tsupitero Index Dow Jones Industrial Average

4 Lepanto Consolidated Mining Company (LC) Open 0.82 High 0.82 Low 0.75 Close 0.78 Value P220,695,320 Barely Holding Above its Support, Make or Break Now Despite looking like it was already holding above its support at 0.78 yesterday, LC continued to drop lower today and even dropped to as low as It was still able to close the day though at the 0.78 level. Does this mean that the stock will now plunge back down to the abyss? From the way I see it, the bulls still has a chance but they will have to act right now. It is possible that the stock may just have formed a bear-trap right now at 0.75 and will trend back up in the next few days. Of course, if the stock continues to drop significantly by tomorrow, then, that would already confirm the end of the run for LC. Tsupiteros are now recommended to buy if prices are able to hold above today s low at A break above the 0.82 level would confirm this. LC Technical Analysis Tsupitero 0.75 to to 0.84 Up 0.08 Buy if support holds Position Trader 0.64 / Up 0.12 Hold / Take profits on strength Buyers Sellers Wednesday May 11, 2011 Macquarie 36.27M F Yap M Angping M JPMorgan 17.45M Papa M Citisec M PhilEquity M Tower M KingsPower 11.9M Wealth M LC Top Buying and Selling Brokers Thursday May 12, 2011 Wealth M COL M Tower M DAMarket M Macquarie 14.79M Luys M ATR M Triton 8.882M Citisec 8.688M Alakor 8.290M Friday May 13, 2011 Macquarie 88.19M Wealth M FirstMetro M Angping M Papa M HEBennett 79.62M RCBC M BDO M Citisec M COL M LCB Net Foreign Activity Monday May 16, 2011 SB M Wealth M Ansaldo M Papa M Regis 9.840M IBGimenez 15.99M Angping 9.963M SJ Roxas 9.820M PCCI 8.756M Solar 8.601M Tuesday May 17, 2011 Vicsal M SB M Mandarin M PhilEquity M Papa 6.538M Ansaldo M ATR M PCCI M IBGimenez 15.92M HEBennett 15.40M Amount (28,480,330) (2,070,060) 13,812,480 1,921,850 (752,440) No News or Rumors LC News/Rumors

5 DMCI Holdings, Inc. (DMC) Open High Low Close Value P578,417,110 Gap Down as Stock Did Not Get Included in the MSCI Index DMC gapped down to today and even formed a bearishly looking long black candle. The reason for this is because the stock was highly anticipated to be included in the MSCI Index. When it was announced today that it was ICT instead that will be included, people began selling. A lot of people are now stuck with this issue at the highs and are now just dying to get out. Some held on to their positions because it might have too deep for them to sell it already today. Thus, I doubt if prices will go anywhere near its previous high at anytime soon. However, prices may have gone down too fast, too soon today, thus, although the stock may still drop and test its psychological support at 40.00, I wouldn t discount the possibility that prices may do a dead-cat bounce from here. That resistance level though might already be a brick wall, so to speak. Tsupiteros, who currently have positions in this stock, are now recommended to just sell as close to as possible. Position-traders as well may start selling on strength as today s behavior may have already signaled the end of the big run of DMC. DMC Technical Analysis Tsupitero Down 2.80 Sell on strength Position Trader Sideways? 4.60 Sell Buyers Sellers Wednesday May 11, 2011 Regis M CLSA M SB M Quality 6.924M Goldstar 6.903M DBP-Daiwa 45.1M Macquarie 34.14M BA M Wealth M RCBC 9.948M DMC Top Buying and Selling Brokers Thursday May 12, 2011 Regis M BDO M Angping M UBS M Papa 5.850M COL M CLSA M Valueqst M PCCI 9.762M UCPB 9.371M Friday May 13, 2011 FirstMetro M Regis M JPMorgan 24.15M SB M ATR M Valueqst M Asiasec M PhilEquity M Angping M Quality M DMC Net Foreign Activity Monday May 16, 2011 FirstMetro M PhilEquity M DA Market 6.474M Valueqst 6.316M Bernad 4.654M ATR M COL 6.896M UBS 6.008M Regis 4.334M CLSA 3.695M Tuesday May 17, 2011 Abacus M Valueqst M RCBC M CLSA M COL M SB M DBP-Daiwa 54.7M UBS M Macquarie 27.10M BA M Amount 107,715,545 (11,942,010) 27,681,530 (44,707,740) (288,205,410) No News or Rumors DMC News/Rumors

6 Leisure & Resorts World Corp. (LR) Open High Low Close Value P61,707,178 Bull-Trap or Just a Correction? LR gapped up to as high as and looked like it was going to continue surging higher once again. However, after gapping up at the open, the stock just dropped like a rock and even closed the day with a long black candle. Is it possible that prices may have just formed a bull-trap yesterday and fooled the bulls into thinking that prices will trend up already? Or, was the stock merely affected by the correction of the entire market and will continue to trend up once again by tomorrow? It s too tough to call it. If the stock is really strong, prices will already hold above that level and will continue to trend up, possibly as early as tomorrow. But if the stock is unable to hold above that level, prices might just consolidate for now above Tsupiteros, who currently have positions in this stock, are recommended to just hold and use a break below the level as your mental stop. Those who would like to buy this stock may want to buy if prices are able to hold above the level. LR Technical Analysis Tsupitero Up 0.60 Hold as long as holds Position Trader to Up 1.10 Buy Buyers Sellers Wednesday May 11, 2011 DA Market 2.955M COL 2.082M Goldstar 1.564M Campos 1.365M PhilEquity 1.326M MountPeak 2.565M Wealth 1.893M Tower 1.675M Abacus 1.215M Accord 0.950M LR Top Buying and Selling Brokers Thursday May 12, 2011 Tower M HEBennett 8.809M DA Market 6.139M IBGimenez 5.482M Papa 4.389M Wealth M ATR 5.233M Citisec 4.438M KingsPower 3.78M Strategic 3.442M Friday May 13, 2011 DA Market M PhilEquity 7.399M Tower 4.394M COL 3.487M RCBC 2.630M Macquarie 12.43M MountPeak 4.853M Wealth 4.273M Eastern 1.960M HDI 1.875M LR Net Foreign Activity Monday May 16, 2011 COL M Wealth M HEBennett 5.743M Ansaldo 5.429M Nieves 3.561M Regis M DA Market 9.591M Evergreen 3.851M SB 3.505M UBS 3.450M Tuesday May 17, 2011 PhilEquity M Belson 8.651M DA Market 7.592M RCBC 2.441M Wealth 2.126M SB M COL 3.791M ATR 3.658M Nieves 3.242M Bernad 2.932M Amount 878, ,076 2,799,030 10,155,380 (1,224,960) No News or Rumors LR News/Rumors

7 I removed DMC from my list of recommendations below because it obviously was not able to hold above its support at to I removed JGS from my list of recommendations below because it was not able to hold above its support at to Might rebound from current levels but expect sideways only, at best, for now. I removed VLL from my list of recommendations below because it began to trend up strongly already today. Recommendation for Tsupiteros AT Up 0.65 Take profits but Buyback if support holds Comments: Correcting back down from its peak at but may continue to trend up if support holds. OV Up 0.00 Buy if support holds Comments: Correcting back down from its peak at but may continue to trend up if support holds. RLC Sideways 0.24 Buy as long as support holds Comments: Bullishly consolidating at its highs. Relative strength vs. the market is strong. Technical Analysis of Selected Stocks ICT Up 3.25 Hold / Take profits on strength Comments: Gapped up strongly to the upside but now approaching its medium-term resistance at JGS Sideways 1.00 Trade the range Comments: Failed to hold above its minor support at but may be reaching oversold conditions. MA Sideways Trade the range Comments: Continuing to drop from its peak at but might have formed a short-term trough today. PX Up 0.75 Buy if support holds Comments: Correcting back down from its peak at but now testing its support at to VLL Up 0.08 Buy the dips Comments: Broke above its consolidation on heavy volume. Looks poised to trend up further.

8 Today s Notes for Tsupiteros Stock Top Ten Net Foreign Buying Stock Top Ten Most Active Stock Top Ten Gainers BDO P65,974,825 DMC P578,417,110 ICT 12.80% URC P55,733,335 ICT P482,836,866 BC 8.97% SMPH P53,248,642 TEL P342,558,860 COL 7.03% MBT P36,889,143 EDC P303,062,678 VLL 5.10% CEB P35,979,412 LC P220,695,320 BDO 2.59% AGI P26,634,358 SMC P162,997,094 CMT 1.94% PNB P17,982,891 AGI P158,728,482 SMPH 1.72% FGEN P14,829,306 VLL P141,669,980 FLI 1.63% PIP P14,471,450 MA P116,885,900 SCC 1.60% SM P14,436,190 FGEN P113,591,676 MER 1.14% Stock Top Ten Net Foreign Selling Stock Top Ten Most Volatile Stock Top Ten Losers DMC (P288,205,410) OPM 14.29% DMC % EDC (P80,359,238) ICT 13.40% MAB -8.89% AC (P55,061,324) DMC 12.13% DFNN -6.21% SMC (P41,130,017) OV 11.76% OV -5.88% MEG (P39,182,570) MA 11.11% LCB -5.81% ICT (P26,028,911) BC 9.70% LC -4.88% VLL (P22,843,990) DFNN 9.40% LR -4.87% BPI (P16,358,408) MAB 8.89% MA -4.44% ELI (P9,759,000) LC 8.54% JFC -4.33% MER (P9,522,742) ORE 8.10% AC -4.10%

9 Important Notice - The Technical Analysis and Recommendation for Tsupiteros are meant to be used by Traders who have a holding period of between one day and two weeks. The Technical Analysis and Recommendation for Position Traders are meant to be used by Traders who have a holding period of between two weeks and three months. Traders who have a holding period of more than three months are not advised to use this newsletter. Legend: + recommend to buy if resistance is taken out to the upside * recommended stop ^ recommendation has changed from the previous day Glossary of Terms: 1. Support - A historical price level at which falling prices have stopped falling and either moved sideways or reversed direction; usually seen as a price chart pattern. 2. Resistance - A historical price level at which rising prices have stopped rising and either moved sideways or reversed direction; usually seen as a price chart pattern. 3. Average True Range (ATR) defined by Wilder to be the greatest of the following for each period: The distance from today s high to today s low The distance from yesterday s close to today s high The distance from yesterday s close to today s low The Average True Range is simply the average of the true ranges over the past x periods (where x is specified by the user). In this newsletter, the ATR is computed in percentage terms. The ATR for Tsupiteros is calculated on a lookback period of 3 days, while the ATR for Position Traders is calculated on a lookback period of 3 weeks. 4. Trend - The general drift, tendency or bent of a set of statistical data as related to time. Disclaimer This document is published by Michael S. Sayo. The information in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Its accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. Any recommendation contained in this document does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific addressee. This document is for the information of the addressee only and it is not to be taken in substitution for the exercise of judgment by the addressees, who should obtain separate legal or financial advice. Michael S. Sayo accepts no liability for any direct or incidental loss arising from the use of this document or further communication given in relation to this document. This document is not to be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. I may or may not hold the securities that I recommend in this newsletter. Author: Miko S. Sayo Certified Financial Technician (CFTe) miko@tsupitero.com Website: