Outlook for Japanese Economy in 2018

Transcription

1 January 6, 28 FPCJ Outlook for Japanese Economy in 28 Tatsuhiko Yoshizaki Chief Economist Sojitz Research Institute, ltd

2 World Economic Outlook (Oct. 27) Seeking Sustainable Growth 単位 :% World Output Advanced United States Euro Area Japan Emerging China India Brazil Russia ASEAN World Trade Volume Oil Nonfuel

3 The World Economy From BC to AC % IMF Forecast BC=Before the Crisis (Ave.23-7) World :5.% Advanced:2.7% Emerging:7.7% Trade Vol.:8.6% AC=After the Crisis (Ave.22-6) World :3.% Advanced:.4% Emerging:4.8% Trade Vol.:2.6% World Advanced economies Emerging market and developing economies 3

4 Japanese Economy in Era of Abenomics 22 4 th Q rd Q Nominal GDP Y493. tril. Y549.2tril(+.4%) Ave.+2.4% Real GDP Y498. tril. Y534.tril.(+7.2%) Ave. +.5% 兆円 SNA 2 年基準 Nominal GDP Real GDP 45 28/ / / / / / / / / /-3. 実質 GDP 名目 GDP Cabinet Office 4

5 Robust Export Boosts Production Index of industrial Production (2=) IIP 3 2 METI Forecast:Dec +3.4% Jan -4.5% Export / Import / Trade Balance Tril Yen Monthly Trade Statistics (sa) Import 億円 (7/) Export Trade Balance // 28// 29/7/ 2/4/ 2// 2// 22/7/ 23/4/ 24// 24// 25/7/ 26/4/ 27// 27// 貿易収支 ( 右 ) 輸出 ( 左 ) 輸入 ( 左 ) METI MOF 5

6 JFTC Trade Forecast 27 Dec 7 th 27 Export in FY 28 will be Over Yen 8 trillion Yen Tril Import Trade Statistics 85. Export e 28e 貿易収支 ( 右軸 ) 輸出 ( 左軸 ) 輸入 ( 左軸 ) Yen Tril FY Current Account Surplus in FY28 will be the 2 nd Highest Yen Tril Current Account Income Balance Trade Balance e 8e FY 経常収支 貿易収支 第 次所得収支 6

7 Buffet Index Suggests Tokyo s Bubble Yen Trillion Market Capitalization vs. Nominal GDP % % 23.% Jan-8 Mar-8 May-82 Jul-83 Sep-84 Nov-85 Jan-87 Mar-88 May-89 Jul-9 Sep-9 Nov-92 Jan-94 Mar-95 May-96 Jul-97 Sep-98 Nov-99 Jan- Mar-2 May-3 Jul-4 Sep-5 Nov-6 Jan-8 Mar-9 May- Jul- Sep-2 Nov-3 Jan-5 Mar-6 May-7 東証時価総額 =a 名目 GDP=b レシオ =a/b 7

8 Japanese Economy Supported by Globalism 千人 3, 25, 2, 5,, 5, Tourists Outbound 8,3478,35 8,6 8,358 7,334 6,79 4,7574,772 5,2395,226,386,728 6,29,364 3,43 28,548 9, (est) インバウンド Inbound アウトバウンド 24,39 Bakugai by Foreign Tourists Stimulated Domestic Consumption FTA Strategy TPP Approved after Trump s Exit Japan-EU EPA Concluded Tourism Strategy Tokyo 22 Osaka-Kansai EXPO IR (Integrated Resort) Law *27 年分は - 月期推計値を 2/ 倍したもの JNTO 8

9 Tightening Labor Market 百 6 Millions Employed Numbers % 8. Unemployment Rate/ Job Offering Rate 倍 Mil 22.2 (M3.3mil F23.6mil) mil 27. (M32.4 mil F26.2 mil) (Nov. 27) 2.8% (Nob. 27) 失業率 ( 左 ) 有効求人倍率 ( 右 ) MIAC MIAC/MHLW 9

10 Workers Increasing Despite Population Decline ('97/6) Labor Population thousands Labor Force Workers Employed 労働力人口就業者雇用者 Working Age Population Peaked in Women, Elders, Foreigners Entering Labor Market Labor Force=Workers + Unemployed(Willing to work over 5 years old) Workers=Self-Employed +Family Workers+ Employed Employed= Regular + Temporary + Day Laborer MIAC

11 Declining Population 26.7million(Est. as of Dec st 27) *Including.94mil. Foreigner Thousands 3, Japan s Demography 2,5 2,,5 Birth,38, 5 Death 自然増減数出生数死亡数 MHLW

12 Economic Policy Agenda in 28 () Financial Assets in the Aging Society Financial Gerontology in the Life Years Era Healthcare & Wealthcare Japan s Financial Assets : Yen 7 tril. Over 6 Years Old Possess 6%(Yen tril.) Preferable Saving at Pension Payment age=ave. Yen 2mil Financial Assets of the Household of the 6s Average: Yen 6mil Median: Yen 6mil 2

13 Economic Policy Agenda in 28(2) Abe Administration s Top Priority Work Style Reform Labor Shortage Era White Collar Exemption (Law of No-Overwork-Pay?) Sideline Retirement Age Dismissal Regulation Experiment of Premium Friday in 27 Productivity Revolution Productivity =OUTPUT/INPUT Increase Numerator or Decrease Denominator? Vertical Integration vs. Horizontal Division of Labor? 3

14 Ordinary Diet Session Starts (/22) New FRB Chairman J. Powell (2/4) 28 Economic Calendar Pyeongchang Olympic Games (South Korea, 2/9-25) Spring Offensive Shun-to (3/4) Who is Post Kuroda (BOJ Governor)?(4/8) New Keidanren Starts under Chairman Hiroaki Nakanishi (5/3) G7 Summit(Canada, 6/8-9) FIFA World Cup (Russia, 6/4-7/5) Lehman Brothers Bankruptcy th Anniversary (9/5) LDP Leader Election(Sept.) Tsukiji Fishery Market Go to Toyosu (/) Meiji Restoration 5 th Anniversary (/23) BIE General Assembly(Nov.) World Expo 225 (Osaka/ Paris/ Ekaterinburg/ Baku) ASEAN+3/ East Asia Summit etc.(singapore, /-5) APEC Summit(Papua New Guinea, /2-8) G2 Summit(Buenos Aires, /3-2/) COP24(Poland, 2/3-4) 4