Annual Report on the Japanese Economy and Public Finance 2017

Transcription

1 Annual Report on the Japanese Economy and Public Finance 217 (Report by Minister of State for Economic and Fiscal Policy) New Growth Promoted by Technological Innovation and Work Style Reform Summary July 217 Cabinet Office, Government of Japan

2 Contents Chapter 1 Current State of the Moderate Economic Recovery 1 Chapter 2 Change in Work Style and the Impact on the Economic Activity and Life Style Chapter 3 Responses to Technological Innovation and its Impact 8 This material has been tentatively prepared to explain the Annual Report on the Japanese Economy and Public Finance. For quotations and other purposes, please refer to the text of the Annual Report on the Japanese Economy and Public Finance.

3 Chapter 1 Current State of the Moderate Economic Recovery Features of the present economic recovery phase highlighted by a comparison with the past business cycle that started in 22 (14th cycle). (1) Japanese economy is no longer in deflation (2) Improvement in employment/income environment (decline in unemployment rate, increase in employed persons, increase in nominal wages) Since the second half of 216, the activity in corporate sector has accelerated again reflecting the world economic recovery, and acted as a starting point of a virtuous cycle Figure 1 Selected indicators during periods of economic expansion GDP GDP growth 成長率 rate 14 4 Right 目盛右 scale 12 Nominal 名目 GDP GDP Real 実質 GDP GDP いざなぎ Izanagi Bubble バブル This 今回 time 第 14th 循環 cycle Nominal 名目賃金上昇率 wages growth rate Right 目盛右 scale Izanagi いざなぎバブル Bubble 今回第 14th 循環 cycle This time (Note) Based on the System of National Accounts, the Cabinet Office; the Labour Force Survey, the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications; and the Monthly Labour Survey, the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare. 14th cycle: 22 Feb- 28 Feb, Izanagi:196 Nov- 197 Jul, Bubble: 1986 Dec Feb Increase 就業者数の増加 in employed persons ((1, 万人 ) people) Decline 失業率の低下幅 in unemployment rate (% (% point) ポイント ) 第 14th 循環 cycle This 今回 time バブル Bubble Izanagi いざなぎ バブル Bubble Izanagi いざなぎ This 今回 time 第 14th 14 cycle 循環 (21 (21=1) 年 =1) 13 General-purpose, はん用production 12 生産用and business oriented 業務用機械 machinery Figure 2 Industrial production by industry Transport equipment 輸送機械 Industrial 鉱工業生産 production Forecast 予測調査 Electronic parts and devices 電子部品 デバイス (month) (year) (Note) Based on the Indices of Industrial Production, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry. Figure 3 Private nonresidential investment (trillion JPY) (Proportion of GDP,%) 9 Proportion of GDP(right scale) Actual amount (year) (Note) Based on the System of National Accounts, the Cabinet Office.

4 Japan s labor market has continued to improve, with the ratio of job offers to seekers reaching 1.48 in April 217, exceeding the level of the bubble economy period in early 199s. (1) During the bubble economy period, the labor supply measured by man-hours increased substantially. Work hours per person decreased substantially due in part to the revision of the Labor Standards Act (48 hours/week 4 hours/week), but the labor force participation rate rose and the number of employees grew substantially, amid an increase in the working-age population. (2) On the other hand, the labor supply measured by man-hours has remained flat presently. The working-age population has been decreasing at around 1% annually. Though not as much as during the bubble economy period, the number of employees has been growing, supported by the higher labor force participation rate in particular among women and the elderly. Work hours per person have decreased due to the higher ratio of part-time workers. Wages per person rose less compared to the bubble economy period, reflecting the following factors: (1) Growth rate in labor productivity measured by man-hours is lower compared to the bubble economy period, partly reflecting the decline in the capital-labor ratio. *Capital-labor ratio = fixed assets / number of employees (2) Both workers and employers stance to avoid risks may be suppressing the rise in wages. Figure 4 Comparison with the bubble economy period Bubble economy period( ) (Change during period, annual average) (%,%point) this time( ) (Change during period, annual average) Man-hours working-age population (age 1-64) Labor force participation rate (age 1-69).3.6 Women(age 1-64).6 1. Elderly (6 and older).3.7 Number of employees Work hours per person Wages per person (nominal) Labor productivity per hour (real) Capital-labor ratio (real) (212-1) Consumer price index (overall) Figure Desirable career development (worker questionnaire) 独立自営キャリア Self-employed career 1 企業キャリア One-company career Multiple-company 複数企業キャリア career ((year) 年 ) (Notes) 1. (Left) Based on the Labour Force Survey and the Consumer Price Index, the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications; the Monthly Labour Survey, the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare; and the System of National Accounts, the Cabinet Office. 2.(Right) Based on the working life survey, Japan Institute for Labour Policy and Training.

5 Private consumption has been picking up moderately. However, its growth has been slow compared to the substantial improvement in the employment and income environment. The structure of private consumption in Japan has changed substantially due to the technological innovation and structural changes of households, such as an increase in people living alone and the graying of the population. By consumption type, services increased steadily. Amid a decline in sales at department stores, convenience stores and drugstores have increased their sales, attracting consumers by their good locations and wide selections. Furthermore, the share of households that use Internet shopping has increased to around 3%, highlighting a shift from bricks-and-mortar stores to the Internet. There is an inclination to own fewer things. The market for secondhand goods has expanded as seen in the rapid growth of flea market apps (market size: approx. 3 billion JPY) (214=1) Figure 6 Synthetic consumption index and Real wage income of employees Real wage income of employees Figure 7 Expenditure of households classified by type (% (%, comparison 212 年対比累積 with 212, ) cumulative) 7 Domestic 国内家計最終消費支出 final consumption expenditure ( 折れ線 of households ) (polygonal line) 6 Services サービス非耐久財 Non-durable Durable 耐久財 goods goods 4 Semi-durable 半耐久財 goods Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ (quarter) (year) 1 9 Synthetic consumption index (real) (Notes) 1. (Left) Consumer Price Index and real employee income based on estimates by the Cabinet Office, seasonally adjusted. 2.(Upper right) Based on the System of National Accounts, the Cabinet Office. 3.(Lower right) Based on the Current Survey of Commerce, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry; and the Survey of Household Economy, the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications. (month) (year) Figure 8 Shift in distribution channels (1) Retail sales by type of business (2) Internet shopping ( 円 ) ((trillion 兆円 ) JPY) (JP Y) 12, 3 14 インターネットを通じて注文をした Percentage of households that 13 ordered 1, 世帯の割合 via Internet ( 目盛右 (right ) scale) 3 12 Total expenditures via Internet インターネットを利用した支出総額 2 8, (1 (Per 世帯当たり household) ) 11 Supermarkets スーパー 2 1 Convenience 6, コンビニ stores 1 9 Fabrics, 4, 織物 衣服 apparel and 8 1 accessories 身の回り品小売業 retailers 7 2, 6 Department 百貨店 stores Ⅰ ((quarter) 期 ) ((year) 年 ) ( (year) 年 )

6 The weak growth in consumption reflects the followings: (1) Among young generation, the confidence for the future employment and income remains subdued. More people tend to choose late marriage or unmarried life. (2) Among the middle aged and elderly, amid an extension of the life expectancy, the necessity to prepare for a retirement may increase budget-minded households. (3) Among the elderly, the consumption is partly constrained by the limited size of the secondhand housing market, which prevents them to make full use of relocations and housing assets such as reverse mortgages. The measures to address these issues include: Recovery of confidence in future economic growth and higher income. Stimulation of potential demand (for example, an increase in people living alone and dual-income couples, and the graying of the population may lead to an increased demand for housekeeping services) Effective use of households assets to support the purchasing power through the improvement of quality and distribution of the existing houses and the expansion of the secondhand goods market. 今後良くなる Will improve 今後悪くなる Will worsen Figure 9 Young generation s concerns about the future (employment and income environment in the next 6 months) Figure 1 Financial asset holdings (households with 2 or more persons, 216) (All households (29 歳以下の総世帯 原数値の後方 with 29 years old and younger, 3-month 3か月移動平均 moving average) ) (1, JPY) ( 万円 ) 2, Income 収入の増え方 growth ((month) 月 ) ( (year) 年 ) (Note) Based on the Consumer Confidence Survey, the Cabinet Office. Employment 雇用環境 2, 1, 1, Balance 年金支給開始時に最低限準備しておく金 of minimum financial assets to have ready at start of pension payments 融資産残高 ( アンケート ) Average 平均値 value Median 中央値 value 2 歳代 2s 3 歳代 3s 4 歳代 4s 歳代 s 6 歳代 6s 7 歳以上 7 and older (Note) Based on the Public Opinion Survey on Household Financial Assets and Liabilities, the Central Council for Financial Services Information.