J-15. MEETING DATE: March 27, City Council. Regan M. Candelario, City Manager

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1 J-15 MEETING DATE: March 27, 2018 TO: FROM: City Council Regan M. Candelario, City Manager 922 Machin Avenue Novato, CA (415) FAX (415) SUBJECT: REPORT FROM TRANSPORATION AUTHORITY OF MARIN (TAM) ON MEASURE A AND POSSIBLY RENEWING THE TRANSPORATION SALES TAX IN 2018 REQUEST Receive a presentation from the Transportation Authority of Marin (TAM) and provide feedback on the proposal to renew Measure A - ½ -Cent Transportation Sales Tax. DISCUSSION The Transportation Sales Tax (Measure A) was approved by Marin voters on November 2, 2004 and started collecting revenues on a ½ cent sales tax on April 1, Measure A authorized the collection of sales tax revenues over a 20-year period, and currently raises over $25 million dollars each year dedicated to local transportation projects and programs. It is approaching its 12 th year of collection with a sunset date of March 31, Tam s 24-member Expenditure Plan Advisory Committee (EPAC) is scheduling meetings with local cities to present information and solicit input on its draft Expenditure Plan as part of an ongoing public outreach process that has included public and stakeholder input as well as a public opinion survey that indicated strong support for the continuation of the ½-cent Transportation Sales Tax. Please see the attached letter to Novato from Executive Director Dianne Steinhauser dated March 20. The letter provides a full background and specific requests for input from the City of Novato. There are also other materials provided for the City Council and community to review including an expenditure plan proposal, draft EPAC proposal fact sheet, and the EPAC member listing. RECOMMENDATION Receive the presentation from TAM and provide input for the TAM Staff. ATTACHMENTS 1. TAM letter to Novato City Manager 2. Expenditure Plan Proposal 3. Draft EPAC Proposal Factsheets 4. EPAC Member List 5. TAM 2018 Poll 6. Sales Tax Renewal Process cc18_

2 ATTACHMENT 1 J Transportation Authority of Mann 900 Fifth Avenue Suite 100 March 20, 2018 San Rafael California Mr. Regan Candelario City Manager Phone: 415/ City of Novato Fax: 415/ Machin Avenue Novato, CA Belvedere James Campbell CorteMadera. Diane Furst Fairfax John Reed LSiner Dear Mr. Candelario: Please accept a request for a presentation to the Novato City Council from the... Transportation Authority of Mann (TAM) Executive Director for the purpose of discussing information regarding the Measure A Transportation Sales Tax, the proposed Draft Transportation Sales Tax Renewal Expenditure Plan and recent public opinion poli results. Considering an upcoming early renewal of the ½-cent transportation sales tax, TAM is in the process of educational outreach to Cities and Towns to provide information on the draft proposal. TAM is seeking input on the Draft Plan, such as responses to the following: Mill Valley Does this new Draft Expenditure Plan meet the needs of your jurisdiction? What are Stephanie Moulton-Peters your key priorities? What other information do you need to support the plan in the future? Details on trip Novato Eric Lucan reduction, greenhouse gas emissions reduction, travel time benefits and other metrics can all be made available for your assessment of whether to support. RSe What flexibility would you like to see in the program? Could you support a re-set of ac h K u hi the plan every 10 years, or more frequently? Staff at TAM can present examples on San Anselmo how that would be done. Brian Colbert What additional organizations or local interests should be consulted regarding the plan? San Rafael Gary Phillips Background Sausalito... Ray Withy Measure A, Mann s ½-cent Transportation Sales Tax, is a cntical local funding source that generates approximately $25 million each year to support our local transportation needs. Tiburon The Measure was passed by over 71% of Mann voters in 2004 and funds are spent in Alice Fredericks accordance with the 20-year Measure A Transportation Sales Tax Expenditure Plan. County of Mann. Damon Connolly The expenditure plan is now nearly 15 years old and the TAM Board of Commissioners Katie Rice has been considering early renewal of the sales tax measure to respond to current needs Kathrin Sears and adjusting how the funds can be spent moving forward. Renewing the transportation Dennis Rodoni sales tax would create an ongoing reliable stream of revenue for much needed projects and Judy Arnold programs. During the first quarter of last year, TAM visited local jurisdictions to provide educational briefings to and introduce the idea of renewing and possibly increasing our county-wide transportation sales tax. These briefings focused on providing information about the projects and programs supported by the current sales tax and receiving feedback from elected officials and residents on priorities and unmet needs. The idea of legislatively Making the Most of Mann County Transportation Dollars 2

3 Letter to Regan Candelario March 20, 2018 increasing the statewide sales tax cap to enable an increase in the transportation sales tax was initially discussed, then abandoned. A baseline poll was conducted in May 2017 to gauge public opinion on renewing the Y2-cent sales tax or potentially increasing of the sales tax to 3%-cent. The poll demonstrated considerably more support for renewing the sales tax rather than increasing the sales tax, with 72% of likely 2018 voters supporting renewal of the existing ½-cent transportation sales tax and a range from 60.8% to 66.9% supporting an increase to 3% cent. In January 2018, a second poll was taken, specifically addressing a renewal of the current sales tax and testing the features of a Draft Sales Tax Renewal Expenditure Plan, along with supportive informational statements and critical statements. The results of this second poli will be reviewed. Proposal Overview Back in June 2017, the TAM Board approved the formation and membership of a Transportation Sales Tax Expenditure Plan Advisory Committee (EPAC). The EPAC is comprised of 24 community members representing a broad range of neighborhood, business, civic and advocacy interests in Mann County. The EPAC met between June and December 2017 to develop a plan to renew the existing ½-cent transportation sales tax and consider expanding the sales tax to 34-cent. The membership of that Committee is attached. The EPAC reviewed the baseline poli results, received broad education about the current ½-cent transportation sales tax and learned from a variety of agencies about current transportation programs and unmet transportation needs. Based on this information, the EPAC developed a draft expenditure a plan that culminated with a consensus recommendation to pursue a 30-year extension of the current 1/2-cent sales tax to be placed on the ballot in November of The new Expenditure Plan would take effect immediately, replacing the existing plan. A 2/3rds approval of those voting would be required. A chart and factsheets detailing the committee recommendations are attached. Primary goals of the ½-cent plan are to keep the core structure of the existing expenditure plan and expand much needed congestion relief programs. Although there were diverse interests represented by the EPAC, the committee reached consensus and demonstrated a strong commitment to building from the current successful transportation sales tax measure, keeping the core structure and maintaining the top-line funding percentages: 7.5% to Highway and Interchange Improvements 26.5 % to Local Streets and Roads 11% to Safe Routes to Schools, Education, Infrastructure and Crossing Guards 55% to Local, Rural, Student and Special Needs Transit With No New Taxes the Proposal Would: Respond to current needs and adjust how the funds can be spent moving forward Continue a reliable stream of local revenue into the future to enable long-term planning Maintain and expand successful projects and programs, including the Safe Routes to Schools programs, local road maintenance and local transit Expand school-related transit and yellow bus programs Prevent cuts in the current Crossing Guard program Provide a local funding source for key operational improvement projects including the Mann Sonoma Narrows and the Northbound US-bY to Eastbound Direct Connector Leverage other regional, state and federal funding for needed transportation improvements Provide seed funding for projects related to sea-level rise, innovative technologies and for support of mobility concepts for first/last mile transit solutions and peak hour demand management 3

4 Likely Letter to Regan Candelario March 20, 2018 In addition to recognizing the importance of continuing this local funding source, the committee also recognized the current tax-sensitive climate. To protect and maintain the existing sales tax and associated programs, the committee did not think it was prudent to try to increase the tax. They recognized the changes in our transportation environment and the need to adjust how funds are being spent. They also acknowledged the rapidly changing landscape of transportation and mobility choices and therefore recommend having milestone review opportunities every 10 years to adjust plan elements to address future conditions. Follow-up Poll A follow-up poll was conducted in January The follow-up poll explored renewing the existing Transportation Sales Tax, testing over 750 likely voters for a November 2018 ballot measure in Mann County. The 2018 follow-up poll confirmed that transportation issues and traffic congestion continue to be top concerns of Mann County residents. There is great interest in transportation issues and solutions. The 2018 poll results show strong support for renewing the transportation sales tax with support from likely 2018 voters at 77.9%, and after a series of critical statements were presented, 73.2%. Next Steps At this time, TAM is seeking additional input from TAM s member agencies- the cities, towns and county of Mann- on the proposed Transportation Sales Tax Renewal Expenditure Plan. Based on input from agencies and residents from this ongoing outreach, TAM staff will write and refine a detailed Final Draft Transportation Sales Tax Renewal Expenditure Plan. In April or early May, the TAM Board will consider voting on the Final Draft Transportation Sales Tax Renewal Expenditure Plan and will decide whether to direct staff to seek approval from all 12 local jurisdictions on the Final Draft Transportation Sales Tax Renewal Expenditure Plan. For the Transportation Sales Tax Renewal Expenditure Plan to be placed on the ballot for consideration by voters in November 2018, the 75-word ballot argument and Expenditure Plan must be submitted to the Registrar of Voters no later than August 10, The TAM Board would need to act no later than July 2018, allowing time for the Mann County Board of Supervisors to make a final decision on whether to put the measure on the November 2018 ballot. TAM appreciates feedback from your council. Sincerely, Dianne Steinhauser Executive Director Transportation Authority of Mann Attachments: Transportation Sales Tax Renewal Expenditure Plan Transportation Sales Tax Renewal Expenditure Plan Factsheets Expenditure Plan Advisory Committee membership January 2018 Poll of likely November 2018 voters- Topline Results Transportation Sales Tax Renewal Process Next Steps 4

5 ATTACHMENT 2 Expenditure Plan Advisory Committee Proposal to Renew the 1/2-cent Transportation Sales Tax Goal: Reduce congestion, maintain and improve local transportation infrastructure and provide high quality transportation options for people of all ages who live, work and travel in Marin County J Strategy Descriptions Current % Final Proposal Annual $ Amount One time $ Amount Strategy 1 Reduce congestion on Highway 101 and adjacent roadways by leveraging non-local funds to accelerate completion of key multimodal projects. 1. Provide local matching funds to accelerate the completion of the Marin Sonoma Narrows, to reduce impacts and enhance the facility for all users. 2. Provide local matching funds to accelerate the completion of the interchange direct connector, including the development of local enhancements to reduce impacts and enhance the facility for all users. 3. Enhance local interchanges and freeway access routes to reduce congestion, improve local traffic flow, improve access for all modes, and address flooding impacts throughout the County. 4. Implement demand management strategies to increase vehicle occupancy and reduce peak hour congestion throughout the County. Strategy 2 - Maintain, improve and manage Marin County s local transportation infrastructure, including roads, bikeways, sidewalks and pathways to create a well maintained and resilient transportation system. 7.5% 7.5% 1.5% $ 12,405,000 2% $ 16,540,000 3% $ 24,810,000 1% $ 270, % 26.5% 1. Maintain and manage local roads to provide safe and well-maintained streets for all users. Projects may include paving and repairs, crosswalk and curb cut enhancements, bike lane and pathway construction including closing gaps in the network to enhance connectivity, bus bulbs, safe pathways to transit and major generators, intersection improvements, pavement and drainage improvements, sidewalk repair as well as system enhancements to accommodate new technologies including autonomous vehicles and other innovations such as signal coordination, real time information and other tools to maximize the efficiency, effectiveness and resiliency of our transportation system. (13.25% to Local Roads by Formula, and 13.25% to Major Roads) 22% $ 5,940, Provide safe pathways for safe walking and biking access to schools. 3% $ 810, Develop projects and programs to address sea level rise and resiliency 1% $ 270, Support capacity enhancements of local streets and roads through innovative technology 0.5% $ 135,000 Dollar amounts are based on 2018/19 annual revenue projections and are for illustrative purposes only. Page 1 5

6 Expenditure Plan Advisory Committee Proposal to Renew the 1/2-cent Transportation Sales Tax - Page 2 Goal: Reduce congestion, maintain and improve local transportation infrastructure and provide high quality transportation options for people of all ages who live, work and travel in Marin County Strategy Descriptions Current % Final Proposal Annual $ Amount One time $ Amount Strategy 3 Reduce school related congestion and provide safer access to schools 11% 11% 1. Maintain and expand the Safe Routes to Schools Education and Encouragement program. 3.3% 3.5% $ 945, Expand the crossing guard program, providing funding for up to 90 crossing guards throughout Marin County 3. Capital funding for Safe Pathways projects (3% moved to Strategy 2, 1% new category below) 3.5% 0% 4.2% 6.5% $ 1,755, Capital funding for small safety related projects 0% 1% $ 270,000 Strategy 4 - Maintain and expand efficient and effective local transit services in Marin County to reduce congestion and meet community needs. This initiative includes funding for a variety of local transit services for mobility and congestion relief, specialized services for seniors and persons with disabilities, school bus services to relieve local congestion, and connections to regional transit to reduce peak vehicle demand. 55% 55% 1. Maintain and improve existing levels of bus transit service in areas that can support productive fixed route service throughout Marin County i. Maintain a network of high productivity of bus service in high volume corridors ii. Expand first-and-last-mile transit services for residents and workers iii. Provide innovative services in communities that may not support traditional fixed route service iv. Enhance public safety through Marin Transit s role in providing emergency mobility in the face of natural disaster. 2. Maintain and expand the rural and recreational bus services including the West Marin Stagecoach and Muir Woods shuttle system. 3. Maintain and expand transit services and programs for those with special needs seniors, persons with disabilities and low-income residents. 4. Provide transit services to schools in Marin County to reduce local congestion. i. Provide yellow bus services in partnership with local schools and parent organizations. ii. Provide transit routes to schools where efficient and effective. 5. Invest in bus transit facilities for a clean and efficient transit system. i. Provide matching funds for the purchase of the green transit fleet. ii. Support the development of a renewed/relocated Bettini Bus Hub iii. Support the development of a local bus maintenance facility iv. Improve passenger amenities at bus stops, including real-time transit information. 6. Expand access to ferries and regional transit. i. Expand and maintain connecting ferry shuttle services to address first and last mile connections. ii. Expand and maintain remote parking locations and other strategies to expand regional transit access for Marin s residents and commuters. iii. Expand first and last mile access to regional transit services for access to jobs in Marin County. 37% 33% $ 8,910,000 3% 3% $ 810,000 9% 9.5% $ 2,565,000 0% 5% $ 1,350,000 6% 4% $ 1,080,000 0% 0.5% $ 135,000 s (Dollar amounts are based on 2018/19 annual revenue projections and are for illustrative purposes only.) 100% 100% $ 27,000,000 $ 827,000,000 Page 2 6

7 DRAFT EPAC PROPOSAL ATTACHMENT 3 J OVERVIEW SUMMARY Highway and Interchanges Improvements 7.5% 55% Local, Rural, Student and Special Needs Transit Safe Routes to Schools, Education, Infrastructure and Crossing Guards 11% 26.5% Local Streets and Roads The Expenditure Plan Advisory Committee (EPAC) recommends a 30-year extension of the ½-cent sales tax to be placed on the ballot in November of The proposal builds on the success of the current transportation sales tax and maintains the core elements. An extension does not propose any new taxes and generates a future funding stream for major highway investments that are not currently funded, including Marin-Sonoma Narrows and the NB US-101 to EB I-580 direct connection. Future local funds can be advanced immediately to attract regional, state and federal funding. The proposal increases funding for local road improvements, senior mobility, school-related transit and yellow bus programs. The extension proposal would provide more funding for Safe Routes to Schools education, safe pathways programs and crossing guards, avoiding the need to cut 26 crossing guards in the fall of The proposal is forward thinking and provides seed funding for projects related to sea-level rise, innovative technologies and supports future mobility concepts for first/last mile solutions and peak hour demand management. Our goal is to reduce congestion, maintain and improve local transportation infrastructure and provide high quality transportation options for people of all ages who live, work and travel in Marin County. 7

8 DRAFT EPAC PROPOSAL 1 STRATEGY ONE: HIGHWAY IMPROVEMENTS Reduce congestion on Highway 101 and adjacent roadways by leveraging non-local funds to assure completion of key multimodal projects that provide congestion relief. Contribute matching funds to complete the Marin-Sonoma Narrows 1.5% Proposal $12.40m One time amount based on $827m 7.5% Current 7.5% Proposal Contribute matching funds to build a direct connector from NB101 to EB % Proposal $16.54m One time amount based on $827m The current expenditure was dedicated to the Highway 101 Carpool Lane Gap Closure Project that was successfully completed in Improve Six Local Interchanges: Tiburon/East Blithedale to Lucas Valley 3.0% Proposal $24.81m One time amount based on $827m The sales tax must be renewed to create a future funding stream for these new major projects. Funds can be advanced immediately. Reduce Peak Hour Congestion with Demand Management Programs 1.0% Proposal $270,000 Annual amount based on $27m Our goal is to reduce congestion, maintain and improve local transportation infrastructure and provide high quality transportation options for people of all ages who live, work and travel in Marin County. 8

9 DRAFT EPAC PROPOSAL 2 STRATEGY TWO: LOCAL STREET & ROAD IMPROVEMENTS Maintain, improve and manage Marin County s local transportation infrastructure, including roads, bikeways, sidewalks and pathways to create a well maintained and resilient transportation system. Maintain and manage local roads to provide safe and well-maintained streets for all users 13.25% Local 13.25% Major Current 22% Local Proposal ½ cent Renewal $5.94m Annual amount based on $27m 26.5% Current 26.5% Final Proposal ½ cent Renewal Provide safe pathways for safe walking and biking access to schools 3.0% Proposal $810,000 Annual amount based on $27m Develop projects and programs to address sea level rise and resiliency 1.0% Proposal $270,000 Annual amount based on $27m All existing Major Roads Projects will receive their currently programmed level of funding. Support capacity enhancements of local streets and roads through innovative technology 0.5% Proposal $135,000 Annual amount based on $27m Our goal is to reduce congestion, maintain and improve local transportation infrastructure and provide high quality transportation options for people of all ages who live, work and travel in Marin County. 9

10 DRAFT EPAC PROPOSAL 3 STRATEGY THREE: SAFE ROUTES TO SCHOOL Reduce school-related congestion and provide Maintain and expand the Safe Routes to Schools Education and Encouragement program safer access to schools. 3.3% Current 3.5% Proposal $945,000 Annual amount based on $27m 11% Current 11% Proposal Expand the crossing guard program, provide funding for up to 90 crossing guards throughout Marin County 4.2% Current 6.5% Proposal $1.75m Annual amount based on $27m Safe Routes education, Safe Pathways projects and Crossing Guards will receive more funding. Specifically, TAM will be able to avoid cutting 26 crossing guards in the fall of Provide capital funding for Safe Pathways projects Capital funding for small safety-related projects 3.5% Current 0% Moved Proposal 1% Proposal [ Moved to Strategy 2: Local Street & Road Improvements] $270,000 Annual amount based on $27m Our goal is to reduce congestion, maintain and improve local transportation infrastructure and provide high quality transportation options for people of all ages who live, work and travel in Marin County. 10

11 DRAFT EPAC PROPOSAL 4 STRATEGY FOUR: LOCAL AND SPECIAL NEEDS TRANSIT Maintain and expand efficient and effective local transit services in Marin County to reduce congestion and meet community needs. This initiative includes funding for a variety of local transit services for mobility and congestion relief, specialized services for seniors and persons with disabilities, school bus services to relieve local congestion, and connections to regional transit to reduce peak vehicle demand. 55% Current 55% Proposal Maintain and improve existing levels of bus transit service in areas that can support productive fixed route service throughout Marin County Maintain and expand the rural and recreational bus services including the West Marin Stagecoach and Muir Woods shuttle system 37% Current 33% Proposal 3% Current 3% Proposal $8.91m $810,000 Annual amount based on $27m Annual amount based on $27m Transit will receive the same level of funds it receives now. Redirection within the 55% will allow fund to be dedicated to school bus service. Maintain and expand transit services for those with special needs seniors, persons with disabilities and low-income residents 9% Current 9.5% Proposal $2.56m Annual amount based on $27m Our goal is to reduce congestion, maintain and improve local transportation infrastructure and provide high quality transportation options for people of all ages who live, work and travel in Marin County. 11

12 DRAFT EPAC PROPOSAL 4 STRATEGY FOUR: [CONT.] LOCAL AND SPECIAL NEEDS TRANSIT Maintain and expand efficient and effective local transit services in Marin County to reduce congestion and meet community needs. This initiative includes funding for a variety of local transit services for mobility and congestion relief, specialized services for seniors and persons with disabilities, school bus services to relieve local congestion, and connections to regional transit to reduce peak vehicle demand. 55% Current 55% Proposal Provide transit services to schools to reduce local congestion including yellow bus service Invest in bus transit facilities, including greening the fleet, improving maintenance facilities and providing passenger amenities 0% Current 5% Proposal $1.35m 6% Current 4% Proposal $1.08m Annual amount based on $27m Annual amount based on $27m Expand access to ferries and regional transit 0% Current 0.5% Proposal $135,000 Annual amount based on $27m Our goal is to reduce congestion, maintain and improve local transportation infrastructure and provide high quality transportation options for people of all ages who live, work and travel in Marin County. 12

13 ATTACHMENT 4 J Expenditure Plan Advisory Committee Meeting Membership List Ref # Organization Select Individual 1 COC-Northern Planning V-Anne Chernock 2 COC-Central Planning Joy Dahlgren 3 COC-Ross Valley Planning Paul Roye 4 COC-Southern Planning Robert Burton 5 COC-West Marin Planning Area Scott Tye 6 COC-Major Marin Employers Peter Pelham 7 COC-Environmental Organizations - MCL Kate Powers 8 COC-Bicycle and Pedestrian Group Vince O'Brien 9 COC-Marin County Paratransit Coordinating Council Allan Bortel 10 COC-League of Women Voters Kevin Hagerty 11 COC-Taxpayer Group Paul Premo 12 North Bay Leadership Council Cynthia Murray 13 Chamber of Commerce Novato Coy Smith 14 Chamber of Commerce San Rafael Joanne Webster 15 Marin County Office of Education Ken Lippi 16 Student- College of Marin Jon Horinek 17 Transit Rider Lisel Blash 18 Marin Mobility Consortium - Seniors Lynn Von der Werth 19 Senior Living Resident/Pedestrian Sue Beittel 20 Equity/Marin City Monique Brown 21 Equity/Canal Neighborhood Roberto Hernandez 22 Labor Union/Building Trade Council Javier Flores 23 Bay Wave Rep - Sea Level Rise - Innovation/Resiliance Bill Carney 24 Safe Routes to School Representative Debbie Alley 13

14 ATTACHMENT 5 J TRANSPORATION AUTHORITY OF MARIN 2018 Transportation Revenue Measure Feasibility Survey Topline Report n=794 Likely November 2018 Voters 19.5-minute January 25, Northern California and Corporate Offices 1575 Old Bayshore Highway, Suite 102 Burlingame, CA Nevada 59 Damonte Ranch Parkway, Suite B309 Reno, NV Pacific Northwest th Avenue NE, Suite 1900 Bellevue, WA

15 Godbe Research TAM Transportation Revenue Measure Tracking Survey METHODOLOGY Sample Universe: - 124,947 Likely November 2018 Voters Sample Size: n=794 Registered Voters Data Collection Methodology: n=120 Landline n=77 Cell Phone n=269 Online from invitation n=328 Online from text invitation Marin of Error: - Registered Voters % Interview Dates: January 17 to January 23, 2018 QUALITY OF LIFE & SATISFACTION WITH TRANSPORTATION OPTIONS 1. Generally speaking, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the overall quality of life in Marin County? 2. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the transportation options, facilities and services in Marin County? Column N % Count Very satisfied 55.6% 442 Somewhat satisfied 34.7% 275 Somewhat dissatisfied 6.3% 50 Very dissatisfied 3.1% 25 DK/NA 0.3% 2 Satisfied 90.3% 717 Dissatisfied 9.4% 75 Ratio Sat to Dissat 9.6 Very satisfied 11.9% 94 Somewhat satisfied 35.8% 284 Somewhat dissatisfied 29.1% 231 Very dissatisfied 16.5% 131 DK/NA 6.7% 53 Satisfied 47.7% 378 Dissatisfied 45.7% 363 Ratio Sat to Dissat 1.0 Topline Report 1/25/2018 Page 1 15

16 Godbe Research TAM Transportation Revenue Measure Tracking Survey INITIAL BALLOT TEST 3. In order to: relieve traffic congestion on Highway101 and local roads; fix potholes and maintain local roads; improve interchanges and access on and off of Highway101; expand safe routes to schools, including school bus service, relieving local congestion; and, provide local transit, including options for seniors and persons with disabilities; shall Marin County extend the existing half-cent, voter approved sales tax without increasing the current rate, providing $25 million dollars annually for 30 years, with citizens oversight, that the State cannot take away? Column N % Count Definitely Yes 47.5% 377 Probably Yes 30.4% 241 Probably No 6.9% 55 Definitely No 12.3% 98 DK/NA 2.9% 23 Yes 77.9% 618 No 19.2% 152 Topline Report 1/25/2018 Page 2 16

17 Godbe Research TAM Transportation Revenue Measure Tracking Survey FEATURES OF THE MEASURE Q4A. Relieve traffic congestion on Highway 101 and local roads Q4B. Fix potholes and maintain local roads Q4C. Improve interchanges and access on and off of Highway 101 Q4D. Expand safe routes to schools, including school bus service, relieving local congestion Q4E. Provide local transit, including options for seniors and persons with disabilities Q4F. Relieve congestion by improving intersections and better timing of signals Q4G. Provide matching funds to build a direct connector from Highway 101 to I-580 and the San Rafael-Richmond Bridge Column N % Count Much more likely 54.9% % Somewhat more likely 25.3% 201 No effect 12.1% 96 Somewhat less likely 3.2% 25 Much less likely 3.5% 28 DK/NA 1.0% 8 Much more likely 47.5% % Somewhat more likely 32.5% 258 No effect 15.5% 123 Somewhat less likely 1.8% 14 Much less likely 2.3% 18 DK/NA 0.4% 3 Much more likely 40.2% % Somewhat more likely 28.6% 227 No effect 20.8% 165 Somewhat less likely 4.5% 36 Much less likely 4.5% 36 DK/NA 1.4% 11 Much more likely 33.1% % Somewhat more likely 32.8% 260 No effect 21.2% 169 Somewhat less likely 5.8% 46 Much less likely 6.4% 51 DK/NA 0.7% 5 Much more likely 35.8% % Somewhat more likely 31.5% 250 No effect 22.4% 178 Somewhat less likely 4.6% 36 Much less likely 5.2% 41 DK/NA 0.6% 4 Much more likely 45.7% % Somewhat more likely 31.9% 254 No effect 15.1% 120 Somewhat less likely 3.4% 27 Much less likely 3.6% 29 DK/NA 0.3% 2 Much more likely 47.6% % Somewhat more likely 23.8% 189 No effect 15.0% 119 Somewhat less likely 4.7% 37 Much less likely 6.8% 54 DK/NA 2.2% 18 Topline Report 1/25/2018 Page 3 17

18 Godbe Research TAM Transportation Revenue Measure Tracking Survey Q4H. Fill in critical gaps in pedestrian pathways Q4I. Fill in critical gaps in bike paths Q4J. Provide more local bus service to relieve traffic congestion Q4K. Support door-to-door transit services for seniors and people with disabilities such as Whistlestop Wheels Q4L. Provide matching funds to complete highway carpool lanes and multi-use pathway improvements through the Marin Sonoma Narrows Q4M. Maintain and expand school crossing guards and the Safe Routes to Schools and Pathways programs Q4N. Protect local roads and highways from flooding and sea level rise Column N % Count Much more likely 26.1% % Somewhat more likely 30.5% 242 No effect 25.0% 199 Somewhat less likely 8.8% 70 Much less likely 8.4% 67 DK/NA 1.2% 10 Much more likely 25.8% % Somewhat more likely 22.2% 176 No effect 25.6% 204 Somewhat less likely 9.0% 71 Much less likely 16.1% 128 DK/NA 1.4% 11 Much more likely 32.6% % Somewhat more likely 32.6% 259 No effect 22.0% 175 Somewhat less likely 5.7% 45 Much less likely 6.7% 53 DK/NA 0.4% 4 Much more likely 30.3% % Somewhat more likely 35.0% 278 No effect 23.9% 190 Somewhat less likely 4.7% 38 Much less likely 5.4% 43 DK/NA 0.6% 5 Much more likely 31.8% % Somewhat more likely 31.2% 248 No effect 21.8% 173 Somewhat less likely 6.0% 48 Much less likely 8.3% 66 DK/NA 0.8% 6 Much more likely 25.1% % Somewhat more likely 27.9% 221 No effect 30.6% 243 Somewhat less likely 7.5% 60 Much less likely 8.5% 68 DK/NA 0.5% 4 Much more likely 37.6% % Somewhat more likely 33.0% 262 No effect 17.2% 136 Somewhat less likely 3.8% 30 Much less likely 7.6% 60 DK/NA 0.8% 6 Topline Report 1/25/2018 Page 4 18

19 Godbe Research TAM Transportation Revenue Measure Tracking Survey Q4O. Increase incentives to use electric vehicles including providing electric vehicle charging facilities Q4P. Provide options to get to and from work to relieve traffic congestion Column N % Count Much more likely 24.5% % Somewhat more likely 24.9% 198 No effect 27.2% 216 Somewhat less likely 10.2% 81 Much less likely 12.5% 99 DK/NA 0.7% 5 Much more likely 41.8% % Somewhat more likely 29.2% 232 No effect 17.3% 138 Somewhat less likely 4.3% 34 Much less likely 5.3% 42 DK/NA 2.1% 16 FEATURES OF THE MEASURE -- RANKED BY MEAN SCORE Column N % Count Q4A. Relieve traffic congestion on Highway 101 and local roads 1.26 Q4B. Fix potholes and maintain local roads 1.22 Q4F. Relieve congestion by improving intersections and better timing of signals 1.13 Q4G. Provide matching funds to build a direct connector from Highway 101 to I-580 and the San Rafael-Richmond Bridge 1.03 Q4P. Provide options to get to and from work to relieve traffic congestion 1.00 Q4C. Improve interchanges and access on and off of Highway Q4N. Protect local roads and highways from flooding and sea level rise 0.90 Q4E. Provide local transit, including options for seniors and persons with disabilities 0.89 Q4D. Expand safe routes to schools, including school bus service, relieving local congestion 0.81 Q4K. Support door-to-door transit services for seniors and people with disabilities such as Whistlestop Wheels 0.80 Q4J. Provide more local bus service to relieve traffic congestion 0.79 Q4L. Provide matching funds to complete highway carpool lanes and multi-use pathway improvements through the Marin Sonoma 0.73 Narrows Q4H. Fill in critical gaps in pedestrian pathways 0.58 Q4M. Maintain and expand school crossing guards and the Safe Routes to Schools and Pathways programs 0.54 Q4O. Increase incentives to use electric vehicles including providing electric vehicle charging facilities 0.39 Q4I. Fill in critical gaps in bike paths 0.33 Topline Report 1/25/2018 Page 5 19

20 Godbe Research TAM Transportation Revenue Measure Tracking Survey INFORMATIONAL STATEMENTS Q5A. Our local streets and roads are falling apart, the measure will help stop the deterioration and make repairs Q5B. The measure will allow Marin County to get millions of dollars in State and regional matching funds. Without approval of the measure, that money will go to other counties Q5C. Every penny from this measure will benefit local transportation projects and programs, and cannot be taken by the State Q5D. The measure will help relieve traffic congestion on Highway 101 Q5E. The measure will make it safer to drive, bike on and walk along local streets, and help relieve greenhouse gases and air pollution Q5F. Safeguards to ensure accountability, including independent citizens' oversight and annual audits, will ensure that the money will be spent as promised Q5G. The measure will preserve and expand bus service to help relieve traffic congestion Q5H. The measure would help relieve traffic congestion on roadways in Marin County, reducing critical emergency response times Q5I. The measure will help relieve traffic congestion on local streets and roads Q5J. The measure will help make connections to regional transit like the Ferry, SMART and Golden Gate Transit Q5K. The proposed regional and State efforts do not cover all the Marin County needs, but this measure will ensure that Marin gets its fair share of State and regional funds Column N % Count Much more likely to vote yes 41.2% % Somewhat more likely to vote yes 30.7% 244 No effect 26.4% 210 DK/NA 1.7% 14 Much more likely to vote yes 51.8% % Somewhat more likely to vote yes 22.6% 179 No effect 23.1% 183 DK/NA 2.5% 20 Much more likely to vote yes 54.3% % Somewhat more likely to vote yes 20.2% 161 No effect 23.4% 186 DK/NA 2.1% 17 Much more likely to vote yes 53.4% % Somewhat more likely to vote yes 22.8% 181 No effect 21.3% 169 DK/NA 2.4% 19 Much more likely to vote yes 39.9% % Somewhat more likely to vote yes 26.8% 213 No effect 31.6% 251 DK/NA 1.7% 14 Much more likely to vote yes 40.4% % Somewhat more likely to vote yes 27.2% 216 No effect 29.6% 235 DK/NA 2.8% 22 Much more likely to vote yes 37.1% % Somewhat more likely to vote yes 30.5% 242 No effect 30.5% 243 DK/NA 1.9% 15 Much more likely to vote yes 41.4% % Somewhat more likely to vote yes 28.9% 230 No effect 27.5% 218 DK/NA 2.2% 18 Much more likely to vote yes 44.3% % Somewhat more likely to vote yes 28.3% 225 No effect 25.7% 204 DK/NA 1.7% 13 Much more likely to vote yes 47.5% % Somewhat more likely to vote yes 26.8% 213 No effect 23.4% 186 DK/NA 2.3% 18 Much more likely to vote yes 38.7% % Somewhat more likely to vote yes 29.1% 231 No effect 28.3% 225 DK/NA 3.9% 31 Topline Report 1/25/2018 Page 6 20

21 Godbe Research TAM Transportation Revenue Measure Tracking Survey Q5L. The measure will address urgent traffic and transportation needs, but does not increase taxes Q5M. The measure will not be used for administrator salaries or government employee pension relief Q5N. The measure will prevent substantial cuts in local transit programs Q5O. The measure will prevent substantial cuts to crossing guard programs Column N % Count Much more likely to vote yes 52.8% % Somewhat more likely to vote yes 20.2% 160 No effect 24.1% 191 DK/NA 2.9% 23 Much more likely to vote yes 50.9% % Somewhat more likely to vote yes 19.6% 156 No effect 26.1% 207 DK/NA 3.3% 27 Much more likely to vote yes 34.6% % Somewhat more likely to vote yes 30.5% 242 No effect 30.9% 246 DK/NA 4.0% 32 Much more likely to vote yes 21.4% % Somewhat more likely to vote yes 23.6% 187 No effect 50.5% 401 DK/NA 4.5% 36 Topline Report 1/25/2018 Page 7 21

22 Godbe Research TAM Transportation Revenue Measure Tracking Survey INFORMATIONAL STATEMENTS -- RANKED BY MEAN SCORE Q5D. The measure will help relieve traffic congestion on Highway 101 Q5C. Every penny from this measure will benefit local transportation projects and programs, and cannot be taken by the State Q5L. The measure will address urgent traffic and transportation needs, but does not increase taxes Q5B. The measure will allow Marin County to get millions of dollars in State and regional matching funds. Without approval of the measure, that money will go to other counties Q5M. The measure will not be used for administrator salaries or government employee pension relief Q5J. The measure will help make connections to regional transit like the Ferry, SMART and Golden Gate Transit Q5I. The measure will help relieve traffic congestion on local streets and roads Q5A. Our local streets and roads are falling apart, the measure will help stop the deterioration and make repairs Q5H. The measure would help relieve traffic congestion on roadways in Marin County, reducing critical emergency response times Q5F. Safeguards to ensure accountability, including independent citizens' oversight and annual audits, will ensure that the money will be spent as promised Q5K. The proposed regional and State efforts do not cover all the Marin County needs, but this measure will ensure that Marin gets its fair share of State and regional funds Q5E. The measure will make it safer to drive, bike on and walk along local streets, and help relieve greenhouse gases and air pollution Q5G. The measure will preserve and expand bus service to help relieve traffic congestion Q5N. The measure will prevent substantial cuts in local transit programs Q5O. The measure will prevent substantial cuts to crossing guard programs Column N % Count Topline Report 1/25/2018 Page 8 22

23 Godbe Research TAM Transportation Revenue Measure Tracking Survey CRITICAL STATEMENTS Q6A. Marin County has asked taxpayers to approve sales tax measures for transportation, the SMART rail system and county parks. Enough is enough, we can't afford another tax increase Q6B. The State is increasing gas taxes and vehicle registration fees, and the Bay Area regional government wants to increase bridge tolls. Instead of asking for more taxes, the State and County need to cut waste and do a better job with taxpayer money Q6C. Since 2005 TAM has spent $250 million dollars, but traffic is even worse than before. Now they want to renew their special tax 6 years before it expires. We should not give them more taxpayer money to waste Q6D. If government agencies managed their budgets more efficiently and reformed out of control pension and benefit programs, we would not have to pay more in taxes Q6E. Sales taxes are the most regressive form of taxation, hurting low income and senior citizens the most Q6F. This sales tax measure will result in Marin County having one of the highest sales tax rates in the state, and sales taxes rob consumers of purchasing power, ultimately costing jobs. People will go elsewhere to buy goods and services Q6G. The measure is growth inducing and will increase the pressure exerted by the State for more subsidized low-income high density housing to be placed in small Marin neighborhoods Q6H. With high State and local taxes no longer being deductible under new federal tax law, we can't afford another local tax extension Q6I. Other proposed ballot measures are more important including sales tax increases for early childhood education and parks and open space Column N % Count Much more likely to vote no 25.8% % Somewhat more likely to vote no 15.7% 124 No effect 53.7% 426 DK/NA 4.8% 38 Much more likely to vote no 31.9% % Somewhat more likely to vote no 24.0% 191 No effect 40.6% 323 DK/NA 3.4% 27 Much more likely to vote no 29.2% % Somewhat more likely to vote no 22.7% 180 No effect 41.6% 330 DK/NA 6.4% 51 Much more likely to vote no 28.8% % Somewhat more likely to vote no 21.6% 171 No effect 44.7% 355 DK/NA 4.9% 39 Much more likely to vote no 22.1% % Somewhat more likely to vote no 22.2% 176 No effect 51.2% 407 DK/NA 4.6% 36 Much more likely to vote no 22.7% % Somewhat more likely to vote no 20.4% 162 No effect 53.4% 424 DK/NA 3.5% 28 Much more likely to vote no 23.6% % Somewhat more likely to vote no 17.7% 140 No effect 51.9% 412 DK/NA 6.8% 54 Much more likely to vote no 25.7% % Somewhat more likely to vote no 22.2% 177 No effect 46.8% 371 DK/NA 5.4% 42 Much more likely to vote no 11.0% % Somewhat more likely to vote no 18.2% 144 No effect 63.4% 504 DK/NA 7.4% 59 Topline Report 1/25/2018 Page 9 23

24 Godbe Research TAM Transportation Revenue Measure Tracking Survey CRITICAL STATEMENTS -- RANKED BY MEAN SCORE Q6B. The State is increasing gas taxes and vehicle registration fees, and the Bay Area regional government wants to increase bridge tolls. Instead of asking for more taxes, the State and County need to cut waste and do a better job with taxpayer money Q6C. Since 2005 TAM has spent $250 million dollars, but traffic is even worse than before. Now they want to renew their special tax 6 years before it expires. We should not give them more taxpayer money to waste Q6D. If government agencies managed their budgets more efficiently and reformed out of control pension and benefit programs, we would not have to pay more in taxes Q6H. With high State and local taxes no longer being deductible under new federal tax law, we can't afford another local tax extension Q6A. Marin County has asked taxpayers to approve sales tax measures for transportation, the SMART rail system and county parks. Enough is enough, we can't afford another tax increase Q6G. The measure is growth inducing and will increase the pressure exerted by the State for more subsidized low-income high density housing to be placed in small Marin neighborhoods Q6E. Sales taxes are the most regressive form of taxation, hurting low income and senior citizens the most Q6F. This sales tax measure will result in Marin County having one of the highest sales tax rates in the state, and sales taxes rob consumers of purchasing power, ultimately costing jobs. People will go elsewhere to buy goods and services Q6I. Other proposed ballot measures are more important including sales tax increases for early childhood education and parks and open space Column N % Count Topline Report 1/25/2018 Page 10 24

25 Godbe Research TAM Transportation Revenue Measure Tracking Survey FINAL BALLOT TEST 7. In order to: relieve traffic congestion on Highway101 and local roads; fix potholes and maintain local roads; improve interchanges and access on and off of Highway101; expand safe routes to schools, including school bus service, relieving local congestion; and, provide local transit, including options for seniors and persons with disabilities; shall Marin County extend the existing half-cent, voter approved sales tax without increasing the current rate, providing $25 million dollars annually for 30 years, with citizens oversight, that the State cannot take away? Column N % Count Definitely Yes 39.7% 315 Probably Yes 33.5% 266 Probably No 7.3% 58 Definitely No 14.3% 114 DK/NA 5.2% 41 Yes 73.2% 581 No 21.6% 172 Topline Report 1/25/2018 Page 11 25

26 Godbe Research TAM Transportation Revenue Measure Tracking Survey DEMOGRAPHICS A. What type of transportation do you typically use to go to work or school? B. Do any children under the age of 18 live in your household? C. Respondent's Gender D. Age E. Ethnic Surname F. Homeownership Status G. Party Column N % Count Bike 2.5% 20 Carpool or vanpool 4.6% 36 Drive car or truck alone 59.2% 470 Drive motorcycle or scooter 0.7% 5 Public transit (bus, rail or shuttle) 7.6% 60 Walk 2.4% 19 Work from home/don't work outside the home 14.9% 119 Other (SPECIFY) 6.7% 53 DK/NA 1.4% 11 Yes 26.9% 214 No 72.8% 578 DK/NA 0.3% 3 Male 44.7% 355 Female 53.9% 428 Other 1.4% % % % % % 299 Not coded 0.0% 0 Japanese 0.2% 2 Chinese 0.7% 6 Hispanic 3.6% 29 Jewish 5.0% 40 Armenian 0.1% 1 Vietnamese 0.5% 4 Italian 4.4% 35 Korean 0.0% 0 African American 0.0% 0 Not Coded 85.4% 678 Owner 68.1% 541 Renter 31.9% 253 Democrat 58.8% 467 Republican 17.8% 141 Other 3.4% 27 DTS 20.0% 159 Topline Report 1/25/2018 Page 12 26

27 Godbe Research TAM Transportation Revenue Measure Tracking Survey H. Household Party Type I. Registration Date Column N % Count Dem % 250 Dem % 146 Rep 1 6.8% 54 Rep % 47 Other % 88 Other % 41 Dem & Rep 4.8% 38 Dem & Other 10.7% 85 Rep & Other 4.2% 33 Dem, Rep & Other 1.5% to % to % to % to % to % to % to % to % or before 6.8% 54 Not Coded 0.0% 0 J. Voting History see detailed crosstabs K. Times Voted in Last Elections 1 6.6% % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % 118 Topline Report 1/25/2018 Page 13 27

28 Godbe Research TAM Transportation Revenue Measure Tracking Survey L. Absentee Voter M. Permanent Absentee Voter N. Likely Absentee Voter O. Likely November 2018 Voter P. Supervisorial District Q. City R. Interview Type Column N % Count % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % 54 Yes 73.8% 586 No 26.2% 208 Yes 74.3% 590 No 25.7% 204 Yes 100.0% 794 No 0.0% 0 District % 166 District % 180 District % 171 District % 127 District % 150 Belvedere 0.4% 3 Corte Madera 5.2% 41 Fairfax 3.9% 31 Larkspur 4.7% 37 Mill Valley 5.8% 46 Novato 18.4% 146 Ross 1.1% 9 San Anselmo 3.9% 31 San Rafael 21.6% 171 Sausalito 3.5% 27 Tiburon 4.2% 33 Unincorporated 27.5% 218 Land 15.0% 119 Cell 10.4% 82 Online 32.5% 258 Text 42.2% 335 Topline Report 1/25/2018 Page 14 28

29 ATTACHMENT 6 J SCHEDULE OF LIKELY STEPS- February 2018 Topic 1. Introduction and Initial Feedback from Local Jurisdictions 2. Baseline Polling - TAM Board approval of polling effort 3. TAM Ad Hoc Committee guides poll - poll conducted 4. TAM Board considers initial input from Local Jurisdictions and Polling and determines whether to proceed to next step of forming an Expenditure Plan Advisory Committee (Go/No Go) 5. TAM Board establishes membership of Advisory Committee 6. Kickoff of Expenditure Plan Advisory Committee Process 7. Expenditure Plan Advisory Committee meets to develop options for renewing transportation sales tax, for increasing transportation sales tax, or both 8. Expenditure Plan Advisory Committee engages in public outreach 9. TAM Board reviews activity of Expenditure Plan Advisory Committee and determines whether to proceed to next step of briefing stakeholders and local councils on status and conducting a public opinion poll of draft Expenditure Plan Elements (Go/ No Go) 10. TAM Ad Hoc Committee guides poll and the poll is conducted 11. TAM briefs stakeholders and local jurisdiction councils on status of Expenditure Plan development seeks and receives input 12. TAM Board considers input from stakeholders, local jurisdictions and polling results, and votes on Final Draft Sales Tax Expenditure Plan (Go/No Go) 13. TAM Board directs staff to seek approval from all 12 local jurisdictions on Final Draft Sales Tax Expenditure Plan 14. Final approval by TAM to request the Board of Supervisors to put the transportation sales tax renewal on the November 2018 ballot. Board of Supervisors approves. 15. Expenditure plan and ballot argument (75 words) deadline for submission to registrar for November 2018 ballot. Target Dates 2017 Feb - Apr Feb Mar - Apr Apr - May Apr - May June June - Dec June - Dec Dec Feb Feb - Mar April May - July July August 10 Complete 29