Phil Wheeler, AICP. Planning Director Rochester Olmsted Planning Department

Transcription

1 Phil Wheeler, AICP Planning Director Rochester Olmsted Planning Department

2 and getting closer all the time Demographics Population size Age & generations Households Race Country of origin Economics Labor force Job growth Job mix Commuting Income Environment Climate Energy Water

3 Population size Aging of the baby boom Age & generations Households Race & ethnicity Country of 0rigin Census decennial 100% count, estimates, & American Community Survey (ACS) State Demographic Center estimates & projections School district data on language, race, & ethnicity

4 Population size 160, ,000 Rochester & Olmsted County Population source: U.S. Census , SDC 2012 estimates 120, ,000 80,000 Olmsted County Rochester 60,000 40,000 20,

5 Population Projections 250, , ,000 Rochester & Olmsted County Population source: U.S. Census , SDC 2012 estimates; SDC 2012 projections Rochester 219, , ,000 Olmsted County 50,000 0

6 Population Age & Sex years and over 80 to 84 years 75 to 79 years 70 to 74 years 65 to 69 years 60 to 64 years 55 to 59 years 50 to 54 years 45 to 49 years 40 to 44 years 35 to 39 years 30 to 34 years 25 to 29 years 20 to 24 years 15 to 19 years 10 to 14 years 5 to 9 years Under 5 years female male 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, ,000 4,000 6,000 8,000

7 Population Age & Sex years and over 80 to 84 years 75 to 79 years 70 to 74 years 65 to 69 years 60 to 64 years 55 to 59 years 50 to 54 years 45 to 49 years 40 to 44 years 35 to 39 years 30 to 34 years 25 to 29 years 20 to 24 years 15 to 19 years 10 to 14 years 5 to 9 years Under 5 years female male Boom Gen X Gen Y Millennials 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, ,000 4,000 6,000 8,000

8 Olmsted County Population Growth State Demographic Center 2012

9 Olmsted County growth by age 10,000 change ,000 6,000 4,000 2, ,000

10 Olmsted County growth by age 10,000 change by ,000 6,000 4,000 2, ,000 0 to 4 5 to 9 10 to to to 25 to 30 to to to to 50 to to to to 70 to to 80 to

11 In case this hasn t sunk in yet Age Group Growth % Growth Share of Growth ,508 55,865 16,357 41% 22% ,347 53,883 14,536 37% 19% ,356 47,120 6,764 17% 9% ,698 39,714 20, % 27% 80+ 5,339 22,669 17, % 23% total 144, ,251 75,003 52% 100%

12 Implications of Age Distribution Age Group 2010 Share of Total 2040 Share of Total ,508 27% 55,865 25% ,347 27% 53,883 25% ,356 28% 47,120 21% ,698 14% 39,714 18% 80+ 5,339 4% 22,669 10% total 144, % 219, % Dependency Ratios (the proportion of the population outside the labor force age groups) if people work until 70 36% 45% If people work until 65 40% 49%

13 Aging boom - disability Disability by Age Group Growth % Growth ,958 5, % ,085 5, % 60+ 8,713 18,158 9, % total 18,755 29,581 10,825 58% Lacking Vehicle 65+ 4,081 8,505 4, % Source: ROPD applying 2000 Census ratios by age group to SDC 2012 projections \rawdata\population&households\disability 2000.xlsx

14 Aging boom households 2010 Olmsted County Total Change Share of Growth Married couples with related children 13,553 13, % Married couples without related children 13,540 17,258 3, % Other families with related children 3,703 4, % Other families without related children 1,512 2,562 1, % Living alone 12,358 15,524 3, % Living alone, age 65 and older 3,656 4,730 1, % Other nonfamily households 3,141 3, % Total households 47,807 57,080 9, % Householders ages 15 to 24 3,076 2, % Householders ages 25 to 44 21,267 21, % Householders ages 45 to 64 15,012 22,036 7, % Householders age 65 and older 8,539 11,255 2, %

15 Aging boom households 2030 Olmsted County Total Change Share of Growth Married couples with related children 13,287 14, % Married couples without related children 17,258 27,030 9, % Other families with related children 4,586 5, % Other families without related children 2,562 2, % Living alone 15,524 26,750 11, % Living alone, age 65 and older 4,730 11,648 6, % Other nonfamily households 3,863 4, % Total households 57,080 80,096 23, % Householders ages 15 to 24 2,726 3, % Householders ages 25 to 44 21,063 25,274 4, % Householders ages 45 to 64 22,036 23,576 1, % Householders age 65 and older 11,255 27,734 16, %

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17 Race & Ethnicity Rochester Olmsted County Percent change Percent change Total: 106,769 85,806 24% 144, ,277 16% Hispanic or Latino 5,508 2, % 6,081 2, % White alone, non-hispanic 84,608 75,088 13% 120, ,255 7% Other than White Alone, non-hispanic 22,161 10, % 23,900 12,022 99% Black or African American alone 6,586 3, % 6,751 3, % Asian alone 7,212 4,830 49% 7,771 5,305 46% % "Minority" 20.8% 12.5% 16.6% 9.7% % Minority of Total Growth % 59.5% For the under 18 population, Olmsted County had a net loss of 2,900 majority population, more than made up for by minority population growth of 5,800.

18 Minnesota County Population Change by Race

19 Migration Components of Change Olmsted County Births 26,627 Deaths 10,406 Natural Increase 16,221 International net migration (97%) 6,258 Domestic net migration (3%) 178 Total Net Migration 6,436

20 The 81 Languages spoken in the homes of Olmsted County K-12 students language count language count language count English 18,415 Not Specific 9 Marathi 3 Somali 1,005 Anuak 8 Polish 3 Spanish 1,003 English, Creolized 8 Ukrainian 3 Khmer, Cambodian 358 Tigrinya 8 Arawak 2 Arabic 298 Mandingo 7 Armenian 2 Vietnamese 197 Nepali 7 Danish 2 Chinese, Mandarin 192 Turkish 7 Finnish 2 Lao, Laotian 146 Urdu 7 Gaelic 2 Bosnian 136 Sign Language, ASL 6 Greek 2 Hmong 77 Yoruba 6 Indonesian, Bahasa Indonesian 2 Bengali 68 Acholi 5 Albanian 1 Hindi 62 Grebo 5 Burmese 1 Korean 54 Hebrew 5 Georgian 1 Russian 36 Hungarian 5 Gujarati 1 French 22 Dutch 4 Icelandic 1 Nuer 22 Filipino, Pilipino 4 Igbo 1 Afrikaans 21 Italian 4 Kamba 1 Dinka 21 Norwegian 4 Kashmiri 1 German 20 Romanian 4 Lingala 1 Japanese 19 Tamil 4 Maithili 1 Telugu 17 Adangme 3 Malagasy 1 Swahili, Kiswahili 16 Balinese 3 Mongolian 1 Cebuano 14 Czech 3 Serbian 1 Portuguese 12 Farsi 3 Swedish 1 Amharic 11 Gio 3 Tigre 1 Oromo, Afan Oromo, Oromiffa 10 Kabyle 3 Twi 1 Thai 10 Kurdish 3 Yombe 1

21 Student Count Top 3 non-english Languages 1,200 1, Somali Spanish Cambodian

22 Student Population Olmsted County had a net decline of 2,900 majority children and a net gain of 5,800 minority children. Olmsted County public schools had a net decline of 2,100 affluent students and a net increase of 3,000 low income students.

23 Achievement Gap by Race, Language, and Income Status Minority White Minority Groups Range overall % in the gap 57% 28% 37% - 71% Language Income Minority White Range LEP(1) eligible (2) 77% 76% 66% - 82% ineligible 63% 64% 47% - 86% English eligible (2) 60% 48% 47% - 67% ineligible 25% 25% 12% - 47% 1. Limited English Proficiency 2. Income status (eligibility for free or reduced price meals) Rochester Public Schools data only.

24 The Future is Gaining On Us: Our under 18 population growth is in the population of children we educate least well: those of limited English proficiency, minority children, and those of low income.

25 The Future is Gaining On Us: Demographic Conclusions 60% of our population growth since 2000 has been persons of color or Hispanics; this does not include other minority groups such as East European, Pakistani, or other Caucasian immigrants. The proportion of the population in the labor force will decline. 97% of net migration since 2000 is international % of our internal labor force growth may include children that we are not educating well. The baby boom mostly continues to age.

26 Rochester-4 Township Area Minority % & Segregation % 120,000 20% 15% Total Population Segregation Index % Minority 100,000 80,000 60,000 10% 40,000 5% 20,000 0% Adjusts for random variation and reflects minority in aggregate 0

27 Segregation Indices 2010 Rochester & 4 Township Area 40% 35% 30% Under 18 All Ages 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% H/NHW B/NHW A/NHW M/NHW Key: H: Hispanic/Latino. NHW: non-hispanic White. B: Black. A: Asian. M: all minorities

28 Neighborhood vs. School Segregation 40% 35% Under 18 All Ages 30% 25% 26.4% 24.6% Nbrhd Schools All Elem Schools 20% 15% 17.1% 10% 9.1% 5% 0% H/NHW B/NHW A/NHW M/NHW

29 Employment Job growth Labor force Job mix Commuting Wages & salaries Income Woods & Poole forecasts SDC Mm Dept. of Employment & Economic Development Bureau of Economic Analysis Bureau of Labor Statistics Census ACS Longitudinal Employment & Household Dynamics Planning Department

30 Olmsted County Employment Olmsted County Employment 2001 Actual BEA 2008 Actual BEA 2010 ROPD Forecast 2011 Actual BEA Farm employment 1,785 1,390 1,600 1,412 Ag. services, forestry, etc Mining Military Federal, civilian State Government 1,241 1,202 1,300 1,282 Wholesale trade 1,705 2,000 1,928 1,834 Manufacturing 12,525 8,971 12,500 7,941 Information 1,108 1,694 1,208 1,620 Trans, warehouse & utilities 2,373 2,289 2,640 2,420 Local Government 5,620 5,939 5,974 5,730 Business Services 3,958 4,256 4,440 4,369 Finance, insurance, & real estate 4,868 6,483 5,531 6,397 Construction 5,318 5,099 5,500 4,177 Retail trade 11,877 11,928 13,245 11,768 Lodging & restaurants 6,509 7,476 7,439 7,032 Other Services 10,749 11,631 12,190 11,227 Health & Private Social Services 31,217 40,158 37,000 41,082 Total Employment 102, , , ,016

31 Olmsted County Employment , Actual BEA 40,000 35, Actual BEA 30, ROPD Forecast 25,000 20, Actual BEA 15,000 10,000 5,000 0

32 Employment Concentration Share of employment in health and related services has increased from 27% in 1990 to 37% in Share in retail trade has declined from 12.6% to 10.7%. Share in manufacturing has declined from 15.2% to 7.2%.

33 2004 ROCOG and DMC-Influenced Projections 160,000 Health & Private Social Services 140,000 OtherServices Lodging & restaurants 120, ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 37,000 12,190 7,439 13,245 41,082 11,227 7,032 11,768 49,834 15,474 9,537 16,161 55,332 14,252 9,015 14,359 56,991 15,772 11,577 15,163 Retail trade Construction Finance, insurance, & real estate Business Services Local Government Trans, warehousg & utilities Information Manufacturing Wholesale trade State Government Federal, civilian 20,000 Military 0 12, ROPD Forecast 7, Actual BEA 13, Projection ,348 8, Modified Projection DMC modified projection Mining Ag. services, forestry, etc. Farm employment

34 Comparison of Projected Employment farming, forestry, & mining construction manufacturing transportation, utilities, & warehousing retail and wholesale trade information finance, insurance, real estate, & leasing professional & technical services health care and social assistance accommodations and food services other services except public administration governmental employment Woods & Poole ROPD/DMC 66,718 56,991

35 Impact of DMC Consistent with projected growth in health care employment, based on maintaining growth rates balanced with location quotient (roughly constant share of national health care employment). Impact on retail trade is minor retail trade employment is a function of population and total basic sector employment. Impact on lodging and restaurants is significant (a net add of 2,500 workers), but a small share of total employment. Main issue is decline of other higher-wage sectors.

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37 The Labor Force Gap Labor Age Group Growth LFPR Force Growth 0 to 19 39,508 49,529 10,021 10% 1, ,347 47,240 7,893 90% 7, ,356 43,416 3,060 90% 2, ,037 52,178 27,141 24% 6,378 total 144, ,364 48,116 36% 17,238 labor force growth need (jobs) 39,100 labor force gap 21,800

38 Closing the Labor Force Gap Labor force growth depends in part on increases in net migration built into the forecasted population growth. projected labor force growth net senior LFPR doubles net commuting up 33%/decade

39 Regional job shifts Olmsted County employment grew by 8,335 jobs. Total jobs in the balance of MNDOT District 6 declined by 620 jobs.

40 Regional Job Shifts - Commuting 5 top city sources of Rochester workers: Stewartville 1,747 Byron 1,716 Kasson 1,453 Minneapolis 1,274 St. Paul 1,268 Total ~45,000

41 Wages by Industry Average weekly wage Estimated full time annual wage Ratio to poverty Family of 3 Industry Employment Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting 230 $501 $25, Construction 2,427 $931 $46, Manufacturing 7,578 $1,601 $80, Utilities 153 $1,535 $76, Wholesale Trade 1,529 $1,115 $55, Retail Trade 9,830 $453 $22, Transportation and Warehousing 1,905 $664 $33, Information 1,474 $1,153 $57, Finance and Insurance 1,264 $1,337 $66, Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 633 $565 $28, Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services 1,544 $1,050 $52, Management of Companies and Enterprises 636 $1,072 $53, Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services 2,300 $507 $25, Educational Services 4,868 $656 $32, Health Care and Social Assistance 39,447 $1,252 $62, Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 812 $237 $11, Accommodation and Food Services 6,830 $310 $15, Other Services (except Public Administration) 2,058 $489 $24, Public Administration 2,761 $1,202 $60,

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43 Factors Determining Household Income Household size, workers per household, and sex of household head for single person headed households Area industries and wages in those industries Unemployment Full time vs. part time employment; seasonal vs. year round employment 34% - 40% of Olmsted County workers have part time or seasonal jobs.

44 Poverty by Household Type & Workers ACS Income in the past 12 months below poverty level Estimate % Below Poverty All households 1, % Married-couple family: % No workers % 1 worker % 2 workers % 3 or more workers % Other families: 1, % Male householder, no wife present: % No workers % 1 worker % Female householder, no husband present: 1, % No workers % 1 worker %

45 Current Conditions: Growth in Poverty Percent below poverty 2000 Census ACS families 3.8% 4.8% with related children under % 7.8% with related children under 5 7.3% 8.8% with female householder, no husband present 16.0% 23.4% with related children under % 27.7% with related children under % 34.2% Individuals 6.4% 8.1% 18 and over 6.1% 7.5% 65 and over* 9.5% 6.3% related children under % 9.6% related children 5 to % 9.3% related children under 5 7.0% 10.4% unrelated individuals 15 and over 16.7% 19.5% * We do not expect the decline in the proportion of seniors in poverty to continue, both because older seniors have higher poverty rates and because of lower income populations entering the

46 Free/Reduced Meals Eligibility District BYRON PUBLIC SCHOOL DISTRICT 8.9% 14.8% CHATFIELD PUBLIC SCHOOLS 11.8% 22.6% DOVER-EYOTA PUBLIC SCHOOL DISTRICT 10.8% 16.5% STEWARTVILLE PUBLIC SCHOOL DISTRICT 15.6% 25.2% ALL SMALL CITY DISTRICTS (+ZED) 12.6% 20.9% ROCHESTER PUBLIC SCHOOL DISTRICT % 34.2% OTHER ROCHESTER PUBLIC SCHOOLS 16.0% 84.8% ALL ROCHESTER PUBLIC SCHOOLS 21.0% 35.5% ALL COUNTY PUBLIC AVERAGE 18.9% 31.7% 12/3/

47 Trends in Housing Affordability tenure owners for whom ratio of cost to income is computed 29,412 42,853 renters for whom ratio of cost to income is computed 10,838 12,849 households for whom ratio of cost to income is computed 40,250 55,702 owners paying over 30% of income for housing 3,856 9,436 renters paying over 30% of income for housing 4,056 5,804 all households paying over 30% of income for housing 7,912 15,240 % of owners paying over 30% 13.1% 22.0% % of renters paying over 30% 37.4% 45.2% % of all households paying over 30% 19.7% 27.4% Source: 2000 Census & Census ACS /3/

48 % Renters Paying Over 30% of Income for Rent Olmsted County ACS Age of Householder # > 30% % > 30% , % , % , % 65+ 1, %

49 Renter Housing Stress by Income ACS Data Olmsted County, Minnesota Estimate Over 30% Percent Total: 13,614 5,804 43% Less than $10,000: 1,776 1,351 76% $10,000 to $19,999: 2,342 1,945 83% $20,000 to $34,999: 3,134 1,827 58% $35,000 to $49,999: 2, % $50,000 to $74,999: 2, % $75,000 to $99,999: % $100,000 or more: 1, %

50 The Future is Gaining On Us: Big Trends and Other Big Things Our senior population will more than double. As boomers retire, the demand for the health services many of them provided will increase dramatically: this is the double whammy Our major economic development issue will be attracting a qualified labor force, including commuters (high speed rail and other transportation investments) and in-migration (affordable housing and amenities)

51 The Future is Gaining On Us Menu for Success Pre-school readiness and better interventions to close the achievement gap. Integrated affordable housing for seniors and young families. Continued emphasis on integrated schools and neighborhoods. Attract workers by enhancing the quality of life. Develop energy efficient land use patterns and transportation systems for locals and commuters.

52 Data Sources tml isuri=1&acrdn=5#reqid=70&step=1&isuri=1