The Political Economy of Disconnected England: Hull, Stoke and Dystopia

Transcription

1 The Political Economy of Disconnected England: Hull, Stoke and Dystopia Presentation to Seminar 1 of the ESRC Series: Regenerating Medium Sized Cities, Keele University, 26 November 2009 Alan Harding, ipeg, University of Manchester and Brendan Nevin, Nevin Leather Associates

2 Context Urban Policy Focus on physical interventions in core cities & larger conurbations; growing capacity of public-private sector partnership Increasingly successful as economy grew but... Limited labour market trickle down Increasing polarisation nationally and within sub regions

3 Spatial outcomes Restructuring of economy towards knowledge, financial services and consumption favoured key regional centres/core cities (agglomeration advantages). However... Made little impact on IMD scores of Liverpool, Manchester, Birmingham Focus on increasingly disconnected neighbourhoods Medium-sized restructuring cities like Hull and Stoke received less priority from central Government

4 New Labour Nominally took on board arguments for holistic approach, joining up, people focus: National Strategy for Neighbourhood Renewal, NDC, LSPs, but: No trust in local delivery; heavy audit, floor targets, etc. Different spatial development priorities emerging, informally, based on management of growth in London super-region Metro fortunes elsewhere benefited from continuing capacity/delivery experiences, agglomeration in private services AND public service expansion

5 The geography of the boom

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12 Shifting debate critical documents: 2003 Sustainable Communities Plan clearly different logics for N and S of country SNR beginning of the end for old style urban policy; beginning of decentralism, acceptance of difference, new C-L bargaining games CSR 07 LSR growth management focus immediately outdated but capital commitments will mean growth performance gaps will be underpinned by uneven public investment

13 Effect of the Transition Differential capacity of Mets and core cities compared to peripheral cities and ex industrial hinterlands Ill equipped to prosper in a growth model based on cheap credit, property investment and consumer spending Substantial differences in economic outcomes in core cities vs disconnected places The worst effected areas such as Hull and Stoke now have multifaceted problems associated with economy, inadequate infrastructure, housing and governance

14 Describing Dystopia A Framework Economic, employment and labour market change; Infrastructure Housing market change Governance and politics

15 Employment Source: Nomis Data, November 2009 Hull Stoke GB Population 258, ,100 Employment Density Employment Level Out of Work Benefits No Qualifications Manufacturing Public Admin etc Employee Jobs , ,900 26,599,200 (+3.9%) (-6.7%) (+17%) Employee Jobs , ,146 22,728,869 Growth +4,400-7,246 Private Sector Growth ,157

16 Private Sector Employment Growth : GB +13% Hull % Stoke -16.6% Leeds +11.5% Manchester +16.7% Source: Nomis, November 2009

17 Neighbourhoods with high proportions of benefit recipients by local authority Source :DWP Work and Pensions Longitudinal Study (WPLS), February 2008 % of LSOAs in local authority with following % of working age people on benefit 0-10% 11-20% 21-30% 31-40% 41-50% 51-60% 61% + 31% + Knowsley Liverpool Middlesbrough Hartlepool Merthyr Tydfil Blaenau Gwent Easington Rhondda Manchester Neath Pt Talbot Barrow Blackpool Halton Hull Wirral Salford Caerphilly Wear Valley Stoke-on-Trent St. Helens Redcar South Tyneside Wansbeck Blackburn Ncstle on Tyne

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20 Hull: A city and its suburbs Indicator Hull East Riding of Yorkshire Population (2007 est.) 257, ,000 Population density (per sq 3, m) Population change % +9% 2007 Non-white population 2.3% 1.2% (2001) Rented housing % (2001) House price to incomes ratio (2009) Average property price 107K 190K (2009) Households in Council Tax 88% 49% Bands A and B (2009) No qualifications (2008) 21% 11% NVQ4+ (2008) 15% 27% 5A*-Cs@GCSE (2007) 30% 51% Ave weekly pay (2008)

21 HOUSING AND INFRASTRUCTURE NEEDS: NORTH STAFFORDSHIRE / STOKE

22 Location of Coal Mines

23 City Plan

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25 Governance and delivery Decline of Labour Party and traditional support structures, rise of the BNP in Stoke and Lib Dems in Hull, disintegration of mainstream party politics Hull: from aspirational Top Ten City to No. 1 Crap Town within 4 years, despite a windfall. Essential problems (made visible by audit, performance measurement); parochialism, paternalism, isolationism, loss of key political and executive leaders. Political instability and non-delivery (e.g. HMR). Provoked Govt intervention. Stoke... Government intervention

26 Failure to Deliver Low initial allocations for Stoke Government reject UDC for Stoke Lack of delivery in non housing regeneration in Stoke - failure to spend allocations Audit Commission criticisms in North Staffordshire

27 Outstanding Issues Capacity is weak unlikely to improve without central local partnership arrangements No national strategy to reconnect disconnected places Re-orientation of growth and decline debate? Hull and Stoke will be a huge drain on public resources and productivity without growth Growing problems of cohesion

28 An emerging policy framework for hard times Context: era of low growth, low investment; second unemployment spike, this time public sector; continued loss of manufacturing and slow, uneven recovery of producer and consumer services need No regions but city-regions? (No money: do it yourself ) Localism (Ditto) Entrepreneurialism (new forms of central-sub-national government bargaining) TIFs, Accelerated Development Zones Deregulation of planning, incentives for new commercial and housing development

29 Conclusion The future of disconnected medium sized cities and older hinterlands critical for national prosperity and cohesion Some are very poorly positioned for the new economic and policy environment; economically and politically (cf the Manchesters) Policy agenda will heighten city-suburban tension, making common cause/analysis difficult The public sector costs of unmanaged decline will be massive Failure to act implies future shifts in people and households with an impact on sustainable development