Ipsos MORI Local. Ben Page PEOPLE, PERCEPTIONS AND PLACE. Chief Executive, Ipsos MORI

Transcription

1 Ipsos MORI Local PEOPLE, PERCEPTIONS AND PLACE Ben Page Chief Executive, Ipsos MORI

2 It s making the news

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4 And we are of course, all Localists now.

5 [We propose] giving local communities the Who power said to drive this? real improvements in everything from the way their neighbourhoods are policed to the way that community assets are used. I believe it will help to build the vibrant local democracies on which our society and our public services depend. Newly empowered councils... through a new 'general power of competence' will be able to do literally whatever they like as long as it's legal - creating solutions to local problems without getting permission from the centre. We need to take control away from central government, where bureaucrats and ministers are in charge, and give it to local government, people and communities.

6 The Place Survey shows some real success in local areas

7 We re happier with where we live Q Overall, how satisfied or dissatisfied are you with your local area as a place to live? Average District Mets & Unitaries LB Inner London Outer London 85% Satisfaction 80% 75% 70% 65% 77% 75% 71% 70% 69% 66% Year surveyed 82% 80% 80% 77% 75% 73% Base: Place Survey 2008/09 (352 local authorities), BVPI 2006 and 2003 (387 local authorities) Source: Ipsos MORI

8 ASB is still going down Q Thinking about this local area, how much of a problem do you think each of the following are 7 strand ASB index Average District Mets & Unitaries LB Inner London Outer London 45% 45% 42% 43% 41% Problem 35% 25% 15% 36% 38% 29% 28% 30% 27% 26% 27% 21% 23% 23% 20% 19% 2003 Year surveyed Base: Place Survey 2008/09 (352 local authorities), BVPI 2006 and 2003 (387 local authorities) Source: Ipsos MORI

9 Particularly drugs Q Thinking about this local area, how much of a problem do you think each of the following are People using or dealing drugs? Average District Mets & Unitaries LB Inner London Outer London Problem 65% 55% 45% 35% 25% 60% 63% 60% 61% 60% 50% 45% 42% 46% 44% 43% 38% 36% 35% 33% 31% 29% 2003 Year surveyed Base: Place Survey 2008/09 (352 local authorities), BVPI 2006 and 2003 (387 local authorities) Source: Ipsos MORI

10 and the terror of teenagers declining Q Thinking about this local area, how much of a problem do you think each of the following are Teenagers hanging around the streets? Average District Mets & Unitaries LB Inner London Outer London 65% Problem 55% 45% 63% 60% 61% 60% 56% 59% 61% 57% 56% 56% 55% 57% 50% 49% 48% 48% 45% 40% 35% 2003 Year surveyed Base: Place Survey 2008/09 (352 local authorities), BVPI 2006 and 2003 (387 local authorities) Source: Ipsos MORI

11 BUT local authorities getting none of the credit

12 Satisfaction with Council is down Q How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way your local council runs things? Average District Mets & Unitaries LB Inner London Outer London Satisfaction 60% 55% 50% 45% 40% 56% 57% 55% 55% 55% 54% 52% 53% 52% 51% 51% 50% 56% 49% 46% 46% 45% 42% 35% 2003 Year surveyed Base: Place Survey 2008/09 (352 local authorities), BVPI 2006 and 2003 (387 local authorities) BVPI 2003 Inner London mean excludes Islington, Newham and Tower Hamlets, BVPI 2003 Outer London mean excludes Croydon Source: Ipsos MORI

13 because people don t know what s happening? Q Overall, how well informed do you feel you are kept about local public services? % Informed All council average 38% Districts 41% Mets & Unitaries London boroughs 37% 37% Inner London 40% Outer London 36% Base: Place Survey 2008/09 (131 local authorities: 59 district councils, 33 London boroughs, 25 Metropolitan districts and 14 unitary authorities) Source: Ipsos MORI

14 For example, rubbish or litter lying around is less of a problem Q Thinking about this local area, how much of a problem do you think each of the following are rubbish or litter lying around? Average District Mets & Unitaries LB Inner London Outer London 65% Problem 60% 55% 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 59% 61% 56% 53% 52% 54% 50% 47% 48% 44% 45% 41% 45% 44% 39% 42% 39% 32% 2003 Year surveyed Base: Place Survey 2008/09 (131 local authorities), BVPI 2006 and 2003 (387 local authorities) Source: Ipsos MORI

15 BUT satisfaction with the council on this has fallen Q How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with each of the following services provided or supported by your local authority? keeping public land clear of litter and refuse Average District Mets & Unitaries LB Inner London Outer London 80% Satisfaction 70% 60% 50% 63% 60% 56% 55% 52% 51% 69% 67% 65% 63% 63% 59% 58% 57% 54% 40% 2003 Year surveyed *2006 question wording: How satisfied or dissatisfied are you that the local authority has kept this land clear of litter and refuse. Base: Place Survey 2008/09 (352 local authorities), BVPI 2006 and 2003 (387 local authorities) Source: Ipsos MORI

16 Place Survey covers more than just councils

17 Satisfaction with local police forces similar to that of councils Q Please indicate how satisfied or dissatisfied you are with each of the following public services in your local area? Your local police force % Satisfied Average 47% In Districts 45% In Mets & Unitaries In London boroughs Inner London Outer London 49% 49% 50% 50% Base: Place Survey 2008/09 (121 local authorities: 49 district councils, 33 London boroughs, 25 Metropolitan districts and 14 unitary authorities) Source: Ipsos MORI

18 Local agencies doing badly on the new single confidence measure Q And how much would you agree or disagree that the police and other local public services are successfully dealing with these issues [anti-social behaviour and crime] in your local area? % Agree Average In Districts In Mets & Unitaries 26% 26% 27% In London boroughs 29% Inner London 31% Outer London 29% Base: Place Survey 2008/09 (352 local authorities: 201 district councils, 33 London boroughs, 36 Metropolitan districts and 55 unitary authorities) Source: Ipsos MORI

19 GPs better rated, but London stands out Q Please indicate how satisfied or dissatisfied you are with each of the following public services in your local area? Your GP % Satisfied Average In Districts In Mets & Unitaries 75% 77% 80% In London boroughs Inner London Outer London 67% 69% 70% Base: Place Survey 2008/09 (121 local authorities: 49 district councils, 33 London boroughs, 25 Metropolitan districts and 14 unitary authorities) Source: Ipsos MORI

20 even dentists better rated than councils Q Please indicate how satisfied or dissatisfied you are with each of the following public services in your local area? Your local dentist % Satisfied Average In Districts In Mets & Unitaries In London boroughs Inner London Outer London 54% 56% 53% 47% 40% 51% Base: Place Survey 2008/09 (121 local authorities: 49 district councils, 33 London boroughs, 25 Metropolitan districts and 14 unitary authorities) Source: Ipsos MORI

21 Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics? Two key points: - understand what is driving these perceptions both what is in your control and what is not - look more carefully at local neighbourhoods within authorities

22 The Perils of Perception much is beyond your control. For example overall quality of life can nearly all be explained by just five background factors

23 Very strong relationship with deprivation Satisfaction with local area 100% 95% 90% 85% 80% 75% 70% 65% 60% 55% Ribble Valley Hart Rushmoor South Hams Thurrock Westminster Slough Barrow in Furness Barking and Dagenham R 2 = 54% Kingston upon Hull Hackney Liverpool Newham 50% IMD Base: All valid responses, 323 local authorities, Place Survey 2008/09 Source: Ipsos MORI

24 but even very simple measures like proportion of dependent children 100% 95% Richmond upon Thames R 2 = 49% City R of London 90% 85% Milton Keynes Satisfaction 80% 75% 70% 65% 60% 55% 50% Hackney Newham Barking and Dagenham Sandwell Ashfield Boston South Holland 40% 50% 60% 70% No dependent children Base: All valid responses, 323 local authorities, Place Survey 2008/09 Source: Ipsos MORI

25 In fact we can explain 82% of variation in quality of life knowing only Degree level or higher qualifications Households living in homes with 0.5 people or fewer per room IMD Proportion under 21 Geographic region NE happy, London unhappy

26 We can accurately predict quality of life knowing only these factors Actual satisfaction 100% 95% 90% 85% 80% 75% 70% 65% 60% Newham Knowsley Kingston upon Hull Thurrock R 2 = 77% Ribble Valley Forest Heath South Hams R South Cambs 55% 50% Barking & Dagenham 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Predicted satisfaction Base: All valid responses, 323 local authorities, Place Survey 2008/09 Source: Ipsos MORI

27 The Ipsos MORI Area Challenge Index: Who s most universally challenged?

28 Area Challenge index Looking across all measures, what are the background factors that are largely beyond the control of local services that are most related to perceptions? Identified seven domains which when combined generate a score form 1 to 100 for each local authority: The Indices of Multiple Deprivation Ethnic diversity (the level of ethnic fractionalisation) Young people Population churn Physical living conditions Urbanity Region

29 Area Challenge index The five most and least challenged metropolitan and unitary authorities Most challenged Least challenged Manchester 72 Isle of Wight 29 Blackburn with Darwen 72 North Lincolnshire 28 Birmingham 72 East Riding of Yorkshire 20 Leicester 71 Herefordshire County 20 Luton 70 Rutland 14

30 Area Challenge index The five most and least challenged London boroughs Most challenged Least challenged Newham Kensington and Chelsea Hackney 88 Richmond 48 Tower Hamlets 86 Bromley 47 Barking and Dagenham 81 Havering 46 Haringey 78 City of London 38

31 Area Challenge index The five most and least challenged districts Most challenged Least challenged* Oxford Castle Morpeth 61 7 Burnley 60 South Shropshire 6 Hastings 59 Tynedale 6 Preston 56 Alnwick 1 Pendle 56 Teesdale 1 *All five of the least challenged districts are now part of new unitary authorities

32 But there are things you can do Quality of life heavily impacted by - sense of belonging - ASB, respect and liveability - services provided by key agencies like the council and police

33 Local public services really matter to a sense of place Positive drivers Belong to immediate neighbourhood Satisfaction with the way the local council runs things 15% 14% -6% Negative drivers People not treating each other with respect Safe to go out during the day Satisfied with parks and open spaces Safe to go out after dark Keeping public land clear of litter and refuse 11% 8% 7% 5% Satisfied with local area -6% -5% People using or dealing drugs Noisy neighbours or loud parties Local public services working to make the area cleaner and greener 5% -4% Vandalism, graffiti and other deliberate damage to property Satisfied with local police force People from different backgrounds get on well together 5% 5% -4% Rubbish and litter lying around 38.7% of variation explained by model Source: Ipsos MORI

34 Importance of ASB can t be overstated 100% 90% Broadland South Hams Westminster R 2 = 83% Satisfaction 80% 70% 60% 50% Rossendale Hyndburn Thurrock Hackney Barking & Dagenham Tower Hamlets Newham 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% ASB R Base: All valid responses, 323 local authorities, Place Survey 2008/09 Source: Ipsos MORI

35 For councils, a few key visible services matter most - and informing and listening

36 Drivers of satisfaction: The way the Council run things Positive drivers Overall satisfaction with local area Overall, well informed about local public services Satisfied with refuse collection Treated with respect by local public services Keeping public land clear of litter and refuse Residents can influence decisions Well informed about how your council tax is spent Local public services treat all types of people fairly Local public services act on the concerns of local residents Satisfied with your local police force 11% 10% 10% 10% 9% 8% 6% 6% 6% 5% Satisfied with council -4% Negative drivers Owner occupied tenure Successfully deal with issues Local public services working to make the area cleaner and greener Satisfied with local bus service 5% 5% 5% 45.7% of variation explained by model Source: Ipsos MORI

37 No councils that communicate well are poorly rated overall Broadland 75% Kensington & Chelsea Westminster Wandsworth R 2 = 52% City of London R Satisfaction 65% 55% 45% Epping Forest Hammersmith & Fulham Gedling North Norfolk Rother 35% 25% Rochdale 25% 35% 45% 55% 65% Informed Base: All valid responses, 131 local authorities, Place Survey 2008 Source: Ipsos MORI

38 Council tax vs. satisfaction with council Satisfaction with council 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% Wandsworth Westminster City of London Oldham Kensington & Chelsea Rushcliffe R 2 = 8% Richmond upon Thames R 0% ,000 1,100 1,200 1,300 1,400 Average council tax per dwelling 1,500 1,600 1,700 Source: Ipsos MORI

39 On crime measures, it is a lot about respect and parenting

40 Drivers of ASB: understanding where to focus your efforts Positive drivers Negative drivers Safe to go out after dark 12% Keeping public land clear of litter and refuse Safe to go out during the day Parents take enough responsibility for the behaviour of children 11% 10% 9% Anti-social problems - 27% -6% -6% People not treating each other with respect Social/council renter Satisfied with local transport information 7% -5% Ethnicity - white Most need improving clean streets Successfully deal with issues 6% 42.1% of variation explained by model Source: Ipsos MORI

41 But can dig deeper into Place look at how views vary at more local levels within authorities Using new Ipsos MORI mapping tool: - key benefit is that doesn t rely on official geography - can see real patterns of perceptions in contour maps - identify hotspots of concern

42 So for example, cross-boundary areas of dissatisfaction with area are not missed

43 or dissatisfaction with council

44 Can compare responses on different questions to help target local actions Satisfaction with council Feelings of influence Chase Chase

45 Can show the importance of individual services? Satisfaction with GPs Whether public services treat you with respect

46 Who s outperforming the Area Challenge Index? We will soon produce full Frontiers tables for all English authorities initial analysis of c150 authorities suggests that following are outperformers : Satisfaction with Council Wandsworth: actual satisfaction 75%, model predicts 60% Satisfaction with area lots in the North East eg Sunderland, Gateshead and Middlesbrough Levels of cohesion Manchester: actual cohesion measure 74%, model predicts 65%

47 Conclusions Real challenges for local government in getting recognition for improvements UK public services are awash with data big issue is how we use it to improve quality of life especially as money runs out Over to you!

48 Thank you