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1 Departamento Nacional de Planeación
2 Outline 1. Poverty and Natural Disasters in Colombia Silvia Liliana Calderon Diaz Deputy Director of Sustainable Development 2016 dnp.gov.co 2. Impacts of Hydro-meteorological Disasters on Poverty 3. Distributional Impacts of Climate Change Fotografía: semana.com
3 Outline 1. Poverty and Natural Disasters in Colombia Silvia Liliana Calderon Diaz Deputy Director of Sustainable Development 2016 dnp.gov.co 2. Impacts of Hydro-meteorological Disasters on Poverty 3. Distributional Impacts of Climate Change Fotografía: semana.com
4 Poverty in Colombia has been decreasing for the past 10 years Urban poverty is persistent in a localized provinces URBAN POVERTY (MPI) 60 POVERTY INCIDENCE BY POVERTY LINE ( ) Rural Total Nacional Urbano Source: DANE (2015) Source: DANE (2005)
5 Rural poverty is higher than urban and widespread around the country RURAL POVERTY (MPI) POVERTY INCIDENCE BY POVERTY LINE ( ) Rural Total Nacional Urbano Source: DANE (2015) Source: DANE (2005)
6 Number of disasters has been increasing, peaking during La Niña % of disasters related to hydrometeorological hazards Natural Disasters related to Hydrometeorogical Hazards ( ) Non-related to hydrometeorological causes 29% Winds 14% Avalanche 1% Landslides 16% Floods 40% Floods Winds Total Inundación Vendaval Total (Incluyendo Desastres No Hidro) Source: DNP 2015 based on UNGRD 2015 Deslizamiento Landslide Avalancha Avalanche Source: DNP 2015 based on UNGRD 2015 Floods and landslides caused the highest share of casualites and house damages (World Bank, 2012)
7 Municipalities with higher urban poverty register more disasters MUNICIPALITIES MOST AFFECTED BY DISASTERS ( ) URBAN POVERTY (MPI) Source: UNGRD (2015) Source: DANE (2005)
8 Outline 1. Poverty and Natural Disasters in Colombia Silvia Liliana Calderon Diaz Deputy Director of Sustainable Development 2016 dnp.gov.co 2. Impacts of Hydro-meteorological Disasters on Poverty 3. Distributional Impacts of Climate Change Fotografía: semana.com
9 La Niña caused significant damage assessed in 2% of GDP 552,000 houses affected 3,000 schools and 514 hospitals affected 1,374 casualties and 7% of country population affected Source: CEPAL (2012)
10 Income Variation Natural disasters cause higher income losses to the poorest quartiles 0% -20% -40% Income Losses due to Natural Disasters (Comparing 2013 to 2010) INCOME BY QUARTIL q10 q20 q25 q50 q75 q80 q90 q95-25% -13% -2% -9% -10% What was the impact of La Niña on household income? Methodology Using a panel data of households (Longitudinal Survey by Uniandes) Instrumental variables quantile regression on household income -60% -80% -100% -120% -95% -63% Results Disasters on poorer groups (q10- q50) cause significant income losses that can reach up to 100% of income in % -135% -160% Source: Romero (2014)
11 The probability that a household falls into poverty is higher if it suffered a disaster 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Household Monetary Poverty Before and After La Niña % 29% Source: Gutierrez (2015) 25% Disaster No disaster 18% What was the effect of La Niña on Household Poverty Rates? Methodology Using a panel data of households (Longitudinal Survey by Uniandes) Dif and dif, Probit, instrumental variables on poverty Monetary Poverty and MPI Results The probability that a household falls into poverty after a disaster is between 8.2% and 10.9% Variables that denote resilience (owning physical assets or type of household job) decrease the effect of disasters on poverty Variables that show vulnerability (quality of house) magnify the effect
12 In Colombia natural disasters have huge effects on people living in poverty What is the impact of disasters occurred from 1976 to 2005 on municipal multidimensional poverty index in 2005? DISASTERS RATE BY MUNICIPALITY Methodology: Panel data of municipal variables Instrumental variable regression on poverty Multidimensional poverty Results: Municipalities that registered higher rates of disasters from 1976 to 2005 showed higher poverty levels (IPM increases by 0.63sd for each sd increase in disasters) The MPI dimensions that are mostly affected by natural disasters are education conditions and childhood and youth conditions Source: Sanchez & Calderon (2015)
13 Outline 1. Poverty and Natural Disasters in Colombia Silvia Liliana Calderon Diaz Deputy Director of Sustainable Development 2016 dnp.gov.co 2. Impacts of Hydro-meteorological Disasters on Poverty 3. Distributional Impacts of Climate Change Fotografía: semana.com
14 The effects of climate change in Colombia are expected to be heterogenous CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS Average temperature change: +1 C ( ) C ( ) Average rainfall change : 30% decrease Caribbean and Amazon regions Increases of 20% in the Andean Region Rainfall changes Temperature change Source: IDEAM(2015) Fuente:UNGRD
15 Among the five sectors analyzed, agriculture showed the greatest economic impacts PRODUCTIVITY IMPACTS ON ECONOMIC SECTORS AGRICULTURAL YIELDS LOSSES Fishing: Loss of fish captures Forestry: Increase in potential production per hectare Livestock: Loss of meat and milk productivity Transport: Average time of road closures Agriculture: Reduction in agricultural yields Source: DNP-BID(2014)
16 DESVIACIÓN PORCENTUAL PIB Accumulated losses do to climate change could sum up to 2.7 times GDP of 2010 GDP Loss (Percentage change with respect to scenario with no climate change) % -0.35% 0.5% of GDP -0.45% -0.55% -0.65% -0.75% A1B A2 B1 On average, each year Colombia looses 0.5% of GDP due to losses on productivite associated with climate change Source: DNP-BID (2014)
17 On average, household consumption drops by 2.9% due to higher food prices associated with productivity loss of agricultural products Consumption Loss by Income Quintile (Average percentage change with respect to a no climate change scenario) Consumption loss by Provinces Source: DNP-BID (2014) Fuente:UNGRD
18 Departamento Nacional de Planeación
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