Current Approaches to Drought Vulnerability and Impact assessment

Transcription

1 Current Approaches to Drought Vulnerability and Impact assessment Experiences from risk monitoring work (GAR) and reviews of progress against the Hyogo Framework for Action John A. Harding UN Relations and Coordination Officer HMNDP Towards Drought Resilient Societies, 12 March 2013

2 Drought risk assessment! What for?! Current status in assessments! Drought hazard! Drought losses! Looking ahead! Modelling drought risk! and climate change?

3 Risk assessment - what for? 1. Drought risk models accounting for drought losses and impact 2. Ongoing monitoring of drought risk through observations (climate, remote sensing, food prices...)! Identifying risk drivers! Building political and economic imperatives! Prioritising long-term investments 3. Assessing drought impacts, number of households affected etc..! Short-term resilience measures! Early warning! Preparing communities and institutions! Defining response measures! Recovery loss, damages and needs

4 Equation of risk Risk = Hazard x Exposure x Vulnerability The probability of potential losses for some particular cause, place and period. Hazard Calibrated using past disasters Exposure Vulnerability Expected frequency of occurrence of different intensities and types of threats (e.g. cyclones, floods, earthquakes, ) for a specific Modelled area. Population or To be identified based on assets as using multiple People, physical assets, and present extracted in using the hazard regression area. geographical GIS. analysis. datasets Percentage of exposure losses should an event of a specific type and severity occur (varies between 0 and 1). Also includes coping capacity.

5 Risk based tool for planning Extensive Intensive

6 Drought hazard assessment - challenges (Drought typologies, NDMC, Wilhite)! Global standards for measuring drought risk slowly being introduced! Difficulties regarding data collection! Impact of drought only partly attributed to deficient or erratic rainfall. Drought risk constructed over time by a range of other drivers

7 Agricultural drought intensity from 2001 to 2010! Agricultural drought intensity over ten years

8 An incomplete picture of drought losses and impacts! EM-DAT: Public domain coverage of large-scale mortality. Weak coverage of smaller disasters. Inconsistent reporting of economic loss.! NAT-CAT and SIGMA: Re-insurance industry databases. Insured losses in developed markets.! ECLAC methodology evaluations: comprehensive data for selected large disasters! National data: heterogeneous, dispersed and inaccessible data held by governments, NGOs, universities and others.

9 HFA P.A. 2: Systematically account for disaster losses

10 Mozambique drought losses! Regularly compiled by INGC (Instituto Nacional de Gestao de Catastrofes)

11 Agricultural drought losses and impact! Loss exceedance curve showing the expected loss in maize production (in percentage) and its correspondent probability of occurrence (Mozambique)

12 Agricultural drought losses and impact! Estimated likelihood of drought occurrence in Niger

13 More common risk assessment methodologies + = A risk based approach to drought management and climate change adaptation

14 Observed and projected changes in rainfall and temperature from 1975 to 2025 in Kenya

15 Main messages " National drought policies require strong risk information basis to be effective " Currently risk information on drought is fragmented and not sufficiently linked to decision making " Probabilistic models of agricultural drought risk are now providing clearer picture of potential crop losses " Better understanding of drought likelihood, food production losses and risks to natural capital and social sectors would encourage informed investments by the agribusiness sector and effective public policy decisions by governments

16 THANK YOU For more information