The Multi-Dimensional Poverty Index and Policy Making in Latin America

Transcription

1 The Multi-Dimensional Poverty Index and Policy Making in Latin America Sabina Alkire, U of Oxford If we measure poverty differently what should we do differently?

2 Background National MPIs Dec 2009, Mexico August 2011, Colombia Others in progress Primary Motivations for a National MPI: To show progress quickly and directly (M/E) To target poor people and communities To inform planning and focus policy

3 Multidimensional Poverty in Mexico Methodology & results First released December,

4 Social Development Law Measuring poverty by mandate of the law Current income per capita Average educational backwardness at household Dimensions for poverty measurement Access to health services Access to social security Quality of living spaces Housing access to basic services Access to food Degree of social cohesion

5 Methodological approach Social Rights Constitutional guarantees Poverty associated with social deprivation Poverty Measurem ent Welfare Economic policy and income have impact on social development

6 Wellbeing Income What are the main features of the new methodology? Current income per capita Population Six Social Rights: Deprivations Social Rights 0 Education Territorial Health Social Security Housing Basic services Feeding

7 Poverty Identification Economic wellbeing line $1,921.7 U $1,202.8 R $874.6 U $613.8 R EWL MWL Minimum wellbeing line With deprivations Vulnerable people by social deprivations Moderate Multidimensional EXTREME Poverty Multidimensional Poverty 6 MULTIDIMENSIONALLY POOR Without D e p r i v a t i o n s 0 Ideal Situation Vulnerable people by income Deprivations Social Rights

8 Advantages of the methodology Insert poverty within the broad objectives of social policy Visualize the progress of social policy not only on income but on multiple deprivations Distinguish action areas of economic policy and social policy on social development

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10 Wellbeing Income Total Population 2008 Vulnerable people by social deprivations MODERATE POVERTY EXTREME POVERTY 10.5% 11.2 millions 3.9 Deprivation average 33.0% 35.2 millions 2.0 Deprivation average 33.7% 36.0 millions 2.3 Deprivation average 18.3% 19.5 millions Vulnerable people by income 4.5% 4.8 millions Deprivations Social Rights 0

11 Wellbeing Income Senior population 2008 Vulnerable people by social deprivations MODERATE POVERTY EXTREME POVERTY 12.0 % 0.8 millions 3.9 Deprivation average 34.0 % 2.4 millions 2.0 Deprivation average 32.5 % 2.3 millions 2.3 Deprivation average 17.2% 1.2 millions Vulnerable people by income 4.3% 0.3 millions Deprivations Social Rights 0

12 Wellbeing Income Indigenous population 2008 Vulnerable people by social deprivations MODERATE POVERTY EXTREME POVERTY 39.2 % 2.7 millions 4.2 Deprivation average 20.0 % 1.4 millions 2.8 Deprivation average 36.5 % 2.5 millions 3.1 Deprivation average 3.1% 0.21 millions Vulnerable people by income 1.2%.1 millions Deprivations Social Rights 0

13 Wellbeing Income Non Indigenous population 2008 Vulnerable people by social deprivations MODERATE POVERTY EXTREME POVERTY 8.5 % 8.5 millions 3.7 Deprivation average 33.9 % 33.8 millions 2.0 Deprivation average 33.5 % 33.5 millions 2.3 Deprivation average 19.4% 18.0 millions Vulnerable people by income 4.7% 4.7 millions Deprivations Social Rights 0

14 Multidimensional poverty incidence Ranks Total of States [20% - 40%) 14 [40% - 60%) 14 [60% - 80%] 4 Source: CONEVAL estimations with information from MCS-ENIGH, 2008

15 Percentage of population with social deprivations Mexico, 2008 Social deprivation Percentage Access to social security 64.7 Access to health services 40.7 Educational backwardness 21.7 Access to food 21.6 Housing access to basic services 18.9 Quality of living spaces 17.5 Source: CONEVAL estimations with information from MCS-ENIGH, 2008

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17 Social Deprivations Food security Millons of people Income Poverty % 11.7 million % 11.7 million Education Houseing Basic Services Extreme income poverty Poverty % 48.8 million 0.0 Extreme poverty % 52.0 million Social Security Access to Health Care Fuente: estimaciones del CONEVAL con base en el MCS-ENIGH 2008 y 2010

18 México 183 Veracruz Jalisco Yucatán Querétaro Sonora Tamaulipas Guanajuato Sinaloa Nayarit Zacatecas Baja California Sur Campeche Tlaxcala Chihuahua Colima Distrito Federal Miles de personas México Veracruz Jalisco 43 Yucatán 35 Querétaro 32 Sonora 27 Tamaulipas 23 Guanajuato 21 Sinaloa19 Nayarit19 Zacatecas 16 Baja 14 California Sur Campeche 13 Tlaxcala 8 Chihuahua 4 Colima 4 Distrito 4 Federal Baja California Coahuila Aguascalientes San Luis Potosí Durango Quintana Roo Oaxaca Morelos Nuevo León Tabasco Hidalgo Guerrero Chiapas Michoacán Puebla Mexican people in extreme poverty Percentage Millions of people An increase of 38,000 Fuente: estimaciones del CONEVAL con base en el MCS-ENIGH 2008 y 2010

19 Bienestar Ingreso Changes Vulnerable by Social Deprivations Non-poor; nonvulnerable LBE LBM Extreme Poor Poor Vulnerable by income Carencias Derechos sociales 0

20 Carencias promedio 3.6 Poor people can have up to 6 deprivations Fuente: estimaciones del CONEVAL con base en el MCS-ENIGH 2008 y 2010

21 Selection of Variables Criteria for variable selection Frequent usage (national or international); literature review; discussion with experts; other indicators. IPM-OPHI Internacional, NBI, ICV y Sisbén III. 1. Indicators can be affected by public policies. 2. Availability of information (in the survey of Quality of Life in Colombia). Criteria to validate variables Precision of the sample to estimate the variable estimated coeff of variation <15%. *EL DANE utiliza: 0-7: Estimación precisa 8-14: precisión aceptable ó 15-25: Precisión regular y por lo tanto se debe utilizar con precaución

22 Multidimensional Poverty Index for Colombia and its applications (MPI-Colombia) ROBERTO ANGULO YADIRA DÍAZ RENATA PARDO National Planning Department Division of Social Promotion and Quality of

23 The MPI-Colombia: Is a poverty measure proposed by the National Planning Department based on the Alkire&Foster methodology Was developed as an instrument for design and monitoring public policy Complements the income poverty measure Was socialized with the Colombian academy and policy makers

24 Colombia s unit of analysis: The household

25 Dimensions of MPI Colombia Educational conditions Childhood and youth Work Health Housing & Public services

26 Educational Conditions Childhood & Youth Dimensions, Variables and Weights MPI Colombia Work Health Housing & Public Services Schooling Illiteracy 0.1 School Attendance At the right level Access to infant services Absence of long-term unemployment Formal work Coverage Access to health care given a necessity Improved Water Sanitation Flooring Exterior Walls No Child Labour Overcrowding

27 Weights and Poverty Cutoff Further considerations. The number of MPI deprivations experienced by those who were income poor, and those who perceived themselves to be poor, was compared with the number of deprivations among the non-income and non-subjective poor. Median and Average number of deprivations 2008 Median Average People who perceive themselves to be poor Income poor people Income poor people who perceive self as poor Those who don t perceive themselves as poor Those who are not income poor All people Fuente: Cálculos DNP-SPSCV, con datos de la ECV2008 A non-poor person on average has 3 deprivations, which suggests that a low value of k would capture deprivations that were not related to or sufficient to identify poverty.

28 Data Survey of the Quality of Life, for years 1997, 2003, and Sample size hh hh hh Representativ eness National, Rural/Urban, and Regions

29 Results MPI Colombia

30 Incidence (H) And Adjusted Headcount (M0) for k = 5/15 Fuente: DNP, DDS, SPSCV. 2011

31 For 3 values of k Intensity or Average Deprivation Share (A) K p.p 4 46% 43% 41% % 47% 45% % 51% 50% -3 Fuente: DNP, DDS, SPSCV. 2011

32 Incidence (H) For all values of k ( ) Fuente: DNP, DDS, SPSCV. 2011

33 Adjusted Headcount (M0) for all values of k ( ) Fuente: DNP, DDS, SPSCV. 2010

34 Intensity (A) for all values of k ( ) Fuente: DNP, DDS, SPSCV. 2011

35 Percentage of hh with deprivations in each dimension: Poor vs non-poor, 2008 Fuente: DNP, DDS, SPSCV. 2010

36 Incidencia (H) e Incidencia Ajustada (M0) cabecera-resto para K=5/15 La pobreza disminuye notablemente pero las brechas urbano rurales aumentan Fuente: DNP, DDS, SPSCV. 2011

37 Headcount by region

38 ÍNDICE DE POBREZA MULTIDIMENSIONAL Meta PND

39 MPI Colombia as an instrument for public policy design 3 applications

40 1 Poverty maps Municipal MPI Colombia (geographical targeting)

41 Municipal MPI Colombia Headcount ratio, urban-rural areas, 2005 Municipal poverty headcount ratio for urban areas, k=5/15, 2005 Municipal poverty headcount ratio for rural areas, k=5/15, 2005 MPI proxy based on Census Data 2005

42 2 MPI-Colombia within the methodology for social promotion from the extreme poverty strategy

43 A family is promoted from if: Sufficient condition: & I P M Not in extreme income poverty Not multidimensionally poor

44 3 MPI-Colombia goal for the Government s National Development Plan & for monitoring poverty reduction

45 From multidimensional to multisectorial 15 goals I P M

46 If the Plan is accomplished, if every ministry makes its job and spends the committed resources, the MPI decreases to 22% (more than 3 million people out of poverty).

47 Poverty committee: monitoring poverty reduction Leaders Counselor for the Presidency National Planning Department Permanent members Ministry of Health Ministry of Labor Ministry of Housing Ministry of Agriculture Ministry of Education Ministry of Finance MANDATORY PRESENCE The President of Colombia 47

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49 IPM Goal national plan Dimension Variable Indicator Indicator National plan Baseline (%) 2014 goal (%) Household education conditions Childhood and youth conditions Educational achievement (0.1) Literacy (0.1) School attendance (0.05) No school lag (0.05) Access to child care services (0.05) Children not working (0.05) Average education level for Average education people 15 and older living in level for people a household to 24 years old Percentage of people living in a household 15 and older illiteracy rate who know how to read and write Percentage of children between the ages of 6 and 16 that attend school. Percentage of children and youths (7-17 years old) within the household that are not suffering from school lag (according to the national norm) Percentage of children between the ages of 0 and 5 who simultaneously have access to health, nutrition and education. Percentage of children not subject to child labor. Gross and net coverage rate Desertion rate in initial school, primary and high school No National plan indicator for this variable Share of child and youth out of the labor market 35 Employment No one in long term unemployment (0.1) EAP that is not facing long term unemployment (more than 12 months) National unemployment rate Formal employment (0.1) EAP that is employed and affiliated to a pension fund (formality proxy) Share of population affiliated to the pension system 32 42

50 IPM Goal national plan Dimension Variable Indicator Indicator National plan Baseline (%) Goal 2014 (%) Health Access to public utilities and housing conditions Health insurance (0.1) Percentage of household members over the age of 5 that are insured by the Social Security Health System Access to health services (0.1) Access to water source (0.04) Adequate elimination of sewer waste (0.04) Percentage of people within the household that has access to a health institution in case of need Urban household: considered deprived if lacking public water system Rural household: considered deprived when the water used for the preparation of food is obtained from wells, rainwater, spring source, water tank, water carrier or other sources. Urban household: considered deprived if lacking public sewer system Rural household: considered deprived if it uses a toilet without a sewer connection, a latrine or it simply do not have a sewage system Adequate floors (0.04) Lacking materials (dirt floors) Adequate external walls (0.04) No critical overcrowding (0.04) A urban household is considered deprived when the exterior walls are built of untreated wood, boards, planks, guadua or other vegetable, zinc, cloth, cardboard, waste material or when no exterior walls exist. A rural household is considered deprived when exterior walls are built of guadua or another vegetable, zinc, cloth, cardboard, waste materials or if no exterior walls exist. Number of people sleeping per room, excluding the kitchen, bathroom and garage. Subsidised regime coverage No national plan indicator for this variable Coverage of pipe water Share of households deprived on the materials of the housing Share of households overcrowded

51 Thank you.