4. Statistical appendix

Transcription

1 First Half Statistical appendix Table 4. Annual macroeconomic indicators p Real GDP (annual % change) Private consumption, real (annual % change) Government consumption, real (annual % change) Investment in construction, real (annual % change) Residential Non-residential Formal private employment (IMSS) 2, total 4,45 4,436 3,994 4,524 5,54 5,856 6,409 6,99 7,724 Annual % change Avge. salary of cont. (IMSS, nominal pesos per day, avge.) Real annual % change Real total wages (IMSS, annual % change) Minimum general salary (daily, nominal pesos) Real annual % change Consumer prices (end of period, annual % change) TIIE 28 average (%) year interest rate, 0 year Govt bond (M0) Seasonally adjusted series. 2 Thousands of people Source: BBVA Bancomer with Bank of Mexico, Conasami, Inegi & IMSS data. Table 4.2 Annual construction and housing indicators p Real GDP (annual % change) Building Civil engineering and major works Specialized construction work Construction employ. (IMSS, thousands people, avg.),2.8,209.5,.6,45.5,99.5,275.2,289.8,383.5,504.0 Annual % change Hydraulic cement prod. (tons, ann. % change) Nat l. cement consumption (tons, ann. % chge.) Construc. comp. (real prod. value, ann. % chge.) Building Public works Water, irrigation and sanitation Electricity and communications Transportation Oil and petrochemicals Other Resid. construc. prices, general (ann. % change) Construction materials (annual % change) Labor (annual % change) Rental equipment (annual % change) Source: BBVA Bancomer with Bank of Mexico, Inegi & IMSS data. 40

2 First Half 206 Table 4.3 Annual housing credit indicators Number of loans granted (thousands) Total Infonavit Fovissste Commercial banks and others Reduction Individual credits Total Infonavit Fovissste Commercial Banks and others Commercial banks current loan portfolio Balance end of period (billion pesos, Dec. 204 prices) Past-due loans index (%) Do not considers Infonavit Total nor Second loan granted by the Infonavit. Source: BBVA Bancomer with Bank of Mexico, ABM & CNBV data. Table 4.4 SHF Quarterly Housing Price Index by state (annual % change) 3'I II III IV 4'I II III IV 5'I II III IV National Aguascalientes Baja California Baja California Sur Campeche Coahuila Colima Chiapas Chihuahua Distrito Federal Durango Guanajuato Guerrero Hidalgo Jalisco México Michoacán Morelos Nayarit Nuevo León Oaxaca Puebla Querétaro Quintana Roo San Luis Potosí Sinaloa Sonora Tabasco Tamaulipas Tlaxcala Veracruz Yucatán Zacatecas Source: BBVA Bancomer with SHF data. 4

3 First Half 206 Table 4.5 Quarterly macroeconomic indicators 2 IV 3'I II III IV 4'I II III IV 5'I II III IV Real GDP (annual % change) Real private consum., (annual % change) Real gov. consumption, (ann. % change) Real const. investment, (annual % change) Residential Non-residential Source: BBVA Bancomer with Inegi data Table 4.6 Quarterly construction and housing indicators 2 IV 3'I II III IV 4'I II III IV 5'I II III IV Construction GDP, real (ann. % change) Building Construc. engineering and major works Specialized construction work Construc. companies (real ann. % change) Building Public works Water, irrigation and sanitation Electricity & communications Transportation Oil and petrochemicals Other Source: BBVA Bancomer with Inegi & Bank of Mexico data. Table 4.7 Quarterly housing market indicators 2 IV 3'I II III IV 4'I II III IV 5'I II III IV Home sales by organization (thousands of credits) Infonavit Fovissste Banks * Total Financing (billions of December 205 pesos Infonavit Fovissste Banks Total Infonavit: number of credits to buy a house (thousands) Economic + Popular Traditional Middle income Residential Residential Plus Total Source: BBVA Bancomer with Bank of Mexico, CNBV, Infonavit, Fovissste & ABM data. *As of this period includes loans with CNBV co-participation. Table 4.8 Quarterly housing credit indicators Commercial banks current loan portfolio Past-due loans index (%) Includes new and existing homes. Note: Price ranges expressed in times the minimum monthly wage (VSMM); Economic and Popular Segment (8-200), Traditional (20-350), Middle income (35-750), Residential (75-500) and Plus (500 and more) SMM=2,046 pesos in 204 in the A zone. Source: BBVA Bancomer with Inegi, Infonavit, Fovissste & Bank of Mexico data. 42

4 First Half 206 Table 4.9 Monthly macroeconomic indicators S.4 O N D J.5 F M A M J J A S O N D IGAE (annual % change) Real constr. vol. (ann. % change) Building Civil engineering and major works Specialized construction work Formal private empl. (IMSS, mills) 2 7,80 7,352 7,475 7,240 7,299 7,433 7,538 7,6 7,596 7,674 7,79 7,79 7,909 8,055 8,88 7,884 Annual % change Average salary quote Real annual % change Real total wages (IMSS, ann. % chg.) Min. general wage (daily, pesos) CPI (end of period, ann. % change) TIIE 28 (average, %) year Gov. bond int. rate (M0) industrial activity index 2 Thousands of persons 3 Nominal pesos per day for the number of IMSS-registered workers. Source: BBVA Bancomer with Bank of Mexico, Inegi & IMSS data Table 4.0 Monthly construction and housing indicators S.4 O N D J.5 F M A M J J A S O N D Constr. emp. (IMSS, thousands),445,486,490,4,426,453,463,484,487,56,536,553,554,57,56,445 Annual % change Cement sales (tons, ann. % chge.) Cement cons. per inh. (ann. % chg.) Contruction prices (ann. % chge.) Materials (annual % change) Labor (annual % change) Mach. Rental (annual % change) The volume of cement production is used as a proxy for consumption. Source: BBVA Bancomer with Bank of Mexico, Inegi & IMSS data Table 4. Monthly housing credit indicators S.4 O N D J.5 F M A M J J A S O N D C. banks loan port. (bal., bn pesos*) Annual % change Total annual cost (CAT, average) Note: As of March 2 Mortgage Sofoles transformed into Sofomes * December 205 pesos Source: BBVA Bancomer with Bank of Mexico, Conasami, INEGI, IMSS & CNBV data 43

5 First Half 206 DISCLAIMER This document and the information, opinions, estimates and recommendations expressed herein, have been prepared by Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A. (hereinafter called BBVA ) to provide its customers with general information regarding the date of issue of the report and are subject to changes without prior notice. BBVA is not liable for giving notice of such changes or for updating the contents hereof. This document and its contents do not constitute an offer, invitation or solicitation to purchase or subscribe to any securities or other instruments, or to undertake or divest investments. Neither shall this document nor its contents form the basis of any contract, commitment or decision of any kind. Investors who have access to this document should be aware that the securities, instruments or investments to which it refers may not be to prepare this report. Therefore, investors should make their own investment decisions considering the said circumstances and obtaining such specialized advice as may be necessary. The contents of this document is based upon information available to the public that has been obtained from or implicit, is given regarding its accuracy, integrity or correctness. BBVA accepts no liability of any type for any direct or indirect losses arising from the use of the document or its contents. Investors should note that the past performance of securities or instruments or the historical results of investments do not guarantee future performance. should be aware that they could even face a loss of their investment. Transactions in futures, options and securities or high-yield securities can involve high risks and are not appropriate for every investor. Indeed, in the case of some investments, the potential losses may exceed the amount of initial investment and, in such circumstances, investors may be required to pay more money to support those losses. Thus, before undertaking any transaction with these instruments, investors should be aware of their operation, as well as the rights, liabilities and risks implied by the same and the underlying stocks. Investors should also be aware that secondary markets for the said instruments may be limited or even not exist. to, directly or indirectly, in this document, or in any other related thereto; they may trade for their own account or for third-party account in those securities, provide consulting or other services to the issuer of the aforementioned securities or instruments or to companies related thereto or to their shareholders, executives or employees, or may have interests or perform transactions in those securities or instruments or related investments before or after the publication of this report, to the extent permitted by the applicable law. investing businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein. No part of this document may be (i) copied, photocopied or duplicated by any other form or means (ii) redistributed or (iii) quoted, without the prior written consent of BBVA. No part of this report may be copied, conveyed, distributed or furnished to any person or entity in any country (or persons or entities in the same) in which its distribution is prohibited by law. Failure to comply with these restrictions may breach the laws of the relevant jurisdiction. This document is provided in the United Kingdom solely to those persons to whom it may be addressed according to the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 200 and it is not to be directly or indirectly delivered to or distributed among any other type of persons or entities. In particular, this document is only aimed at and can be delivered to the following persons or entities (i) those outside the United Kingdom (ii) those with expertise regarding investments as mentioned under Section 9(5) of Order 200, (iii) high net worth entities and any other person or entity under Section 49() of Order 200 to whom the contents hereof can be legally revealed. BBVA Bancomer and the rest of BBVA Group who are not members of FINRA (Financial Industry Regulatory Authority), are not subject to the rules of disclosure for these members. BBVA Bancomer, BBVA and its subsidiaries, among which is BBVA Global Markets Research, are subject to the Corporate Policy Group in an Internal Code of Conduct which complements the policy and guidelines in conjunction with other established guidelines to prevent and is available at: / Corporate Governance / Conduct in Securities Markets. 45

6 4 TH QUARTER 205 ECONOMIC SCENARIOS UNIT 0 Slowdown in global growth in Central banks: room to act 205, with a limited among the developed improvement in 206. economies and China, but dilemmas among the emerging economies of only slow recovery among the developed economies Real commodity prices, a preliminary analysis of their long-run trends 0 Gently rising growth trend in spite of awkward conditions Domestic demand has been a positive surprise and the prime mover of growth this year historical low of around 2.4% 0 Loans and deposits are recovering due to economic factors. Maintaining the dynamic would require support from the structural components of the economy Analysis of the solvency of local governments, companies collections strategy to reduce and households shows no arrears and improve the evidence of systemic risk contact with cardholders 4 TH QUARTER 205 U.S. UNIT 0 Slower global growth and U.S. growth expected to First federal funds rate hike increased downside risks due stabilize around 2.5% in the expected in December, with to vulnerable emerging coming years in this "new only two or three hikes in economies and lower normal" environment 206 expectations for developed markets Mexico Real Estate Outlook First Half 206 This report has been produced by Carlos Serrano carlos.serranoh@bbva.com Samuel Vázquez samuel.vazquez@bbva.com Fernando Balbuena fernando.balbuena@bbva.com BBVA Research Group Chief Economist Jorge Sicilia Developed Economies: Rafael Doménech r.domenech@bbva.com Emerging Economies: Financial Systems & Regulation Santiago Fernández de Lis sfernandezdelis@bbva.com Global Areas: Spain Miguel Cardoso miguel.cardoso@bbva.com Europe Miguel Jiménez mjimenezg@bbva.com United States Nathaniel Karp nathaniel.karp@bbva.com Cross Country Emerging Markets Analysis Álvaro Ortiz alvaro.ortiza@bbva.com Asia Le Xia le.xia@bbva.hk Mexico Carlos Serrano carlos.serranoh@bbva.com Turkey Álvaro Ortiz alvaro.ortiza@bbva.com LatAm Coordination Juan Ruiz juan.ruiz@bbva.com Argentina Gloria Sorensen gsorensen@bbva.com Chile Jorge Selaive jselaive@bbva.com Colombia Juana Téllez juana.tellez@bbva.com Peru Hugo Perea hperea@bbva.com Venezuela Julio Pineda juliocesar.pineda@bbva.com Financial Systems Ana Rubio arubiog@bbva.com Financial Inclusion David Tuesta david.tuesta@bbva.com Regulation & Public Policy María Abascal maria.abascal@bbva.com Digital Regulation Alvaro Martín Economic Scenarios Julián Cubero juan.cubero@bbva.com Financial Scenarios Sonsoles Castillo s.castillo@bbva.com Innovation & Processes Oscar de las Peñas oscar.delaspenas@bbva.com BBVA Research Mexico Paseo de la Reforma 50 Colonia Juárez C.P México D.F. Publications: bbvaresearch_mexico@bbva.com These and other BBVA Research publications are available in English and in Spanish at: Other Publications: Global Economic Outlook Mexico Economic Outlook 4th QUARTER 205 MEXICO UNIT Mexico Banking Outlook JANUARY 206 MEXICO UNIT United States Economic Outlook A djustment among the emerging markets and a risk