Measuring Pension Entitlements II
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1 Measuring Pension Entitlements II Sergi Biletsky HDNSP, World Bank March 7, 23
2 APEX Pension Models Apex (Analysis of Pension Entitlements across Countries) is a collection of country pension and tax models based on a single set of economic assumptions to ensure comparability across countries Apex includes user interface employing customized STATA dialogues, and STATA routines describing each country pension, personal tax and social contribution systems and calculation procedures Originally developed by Edward Whitehouse and used by the World Bank, OECD, and European Commission
3 Methodology and Assumptions() All calculations are done for new pensioners only and based on national pension and tax system parameters and rules at the year of modeling, including legislated reforms that are being phased in Pension entitlements are computed for individuals entering employment in that year, and as if they had worked their entire career under currently legislated pension and tax regimes
4 Methodology and Assumptions(2) The results are produced for different levels of earnings and years of service (earnings are conveniently presented as a fraction or multiple of the economy-wide average wage) Uniform economic assumptions: inflation (p=2.5%), real earnings growth (w=2%), real rate of return (r=3.5%), real discount rate (z=2%), and mortality rates (m) from the UN Population Database
5 Benefit levels Defined Benefit Pension = Key Inputs as a function of system parameters and economic variables Accrual Rate * Years of Service * Reference Wage Defined Contribution Pension = Account Balance / Annuity Factor Account Balance = C *(+r) N + C 2 *(+r) N- + + C N *(+r), where C t = Contribution Rate t * Wage t and N are years of service. Annuity Factor is a function of mortality rates (m), indexation to wage growth (w) and/or inflation (p), and a discount rate (z)
6 Gross Pension Level = Gross RR = Key Outputs () Gross Pension Gross individual wage Gross Pension Gross average economy wide wage Gross Pension Wealth = Gross Pension Level * AF ret.age
7 Gross relative pension level Gross replacement rate Flat rate pension scheme Examples () Social Social Individual earnings, proportion of average earnings Individual earnings, proportion of average earnings Individual earnings, multiple of average Gross pension level (% of average earnings) Gross replacement rate (% of individual earnings) Gross pension wealth, male (multiple of average earnings)
8 Gross relative pension level Gross replacement rate Examples (2) Earnings related pension scheme Contributory Contributory Individual earnings, proportion of average earnings Individual earnings, proportion of average earnings Individual earnings, multiple of average Gross pension level (% of average earnings) Gross replacement rate (% of individual earnings) Gross pension wealth, male (multiple of average earnings)
9 Gross replacement rate Examples (3) Two tiers of pension system in Bulgaria 2.5 DC Earnings-related.25 DC Earnings-related Individual earnings, proportion of average earnings Individual earnings, proportion of average earnings Individual earnings, multiple of average Gross pension level (% of average earnings) Gross replacement rate (% of individual earnings) Gross pension wealth, male (multiple of average earnings)
10 Gross Pension Level = Gross RR = Key Outputs (2) Gross Pension Gross individual wage Gross Pension Gross average economy wide wage Gross Pension Wealth = Gross Pension Level * AF ret.age Net RR = Net Pension Net individual wage Net Pension Wealth = Net Pension Level * AF ret.age
11 Proportion of income Examples (4) Two tiers pension system in Bulgaria.25 Net Gross.5 Worker: total Pensioner: total Worker: income tax Individual earnings, proportion of average earnings Individual income, proportion of average earnings Individual earnings, multiple of average Net replacement rate (% of individual earnings) Net pension wealth, male (multiple of average earnings) Average tax rate: worker (% of individual earnings) Average tax rate: pensioner (% of individual earnings).....
12 Gross Pension Level = Gross RR = Key Outputs (3) Gross Pension Gross individual wage Gross Pension Gross average economy wide wage Gross Pension Wealth = Gross Pension Level * AF ret.age Net RR = Net Pension Net individual wage Net Pension Wealth = Net Pension Level * AF ret.age Progressivity Index = - Pension Gini Earnings Gini
13 Gini = A/(A+B)
14 .5 Fraction of pre-retirement earnings Examples (5) Two tiers of pension system in Seychelles Contributory Non-contributory Contributory Non-contributory 2 3 Individual pre-retirement earnings (fraction of average earnings) 2 3 Individual pre-retirement earnings (fraction of average earnings) Gross pension level (% of average earnings) Gross replacement rate (% of individual earnings) Gross pension wealth, male (multiple of average earnings) Individual earnings, multiple of average
15 Percent Fraction Examples (6) Contributory pension and distribution of earnings Pen.level (fraction of average earnings) RR (fraction of pre-retirement earnings) 2 3 Individual pre-retirement earnings (fraction of average earnings)
16 Progressivity of pension formulae Pension Gini Progressivity index Gini wage Sweden Seychelles (contributory only) Italy Netherlands Finland Spain Germany Norway Seychelles (incl. non-contributory) Japan United States Belgium Czech Republic Korea Australia United Kingdom Ireland 29.6 New Zealand 27.7 OECD
17 Thank You!
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