U.S. Economic Outlook
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1 UW-Madison Retirement Association International Theatre CUNA 10:00-12:00, Wednesday, December 12, 2012 U.S. Economic Outlook Steven W. Rick Senior Economist Credit Union National Association PO Box 431 Madison, Wis , USA Telephone: Facsimile:
2 Important Factors to Discuss
3 Important Factors to Discuss 1. Economy
4 Important Factors to Discuss 1. Economy 2. Market interest rates
5 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% -3% -4% -5% -6% -7% -8% -9% -10% 2.7%2.6% 3.0%3.3% 4.2% Quarterly % Change in U.S. Economic Output (Real GDP - Chainweighted 2005$) 1.8 % 3.2% 2.1% 5.1% 1.6 % 0.1% 2.7% 0.5% 3.6% 3.0% Maximum Sustainable Growth Rate = 3% 1.7% - 1.8% 1.3 % 04:1 05:1 06:1 07:1 08:1 09:1-0.3% 10:1 11:01 12:01 13:01-3.7% - 8.9% - 5.2% 1.4 % 4.0% 2.3%2.2% 2.6% 2.4% 0.1% 2.5% 1.3 % Below trend growth Falling stimulus spending Less inventory rebuilding Slowing Euro-Zone Financial crisis Deleveraging households Rising savings rates 4.1% 2.0% 1.3 % 2.7% 2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5% Source: Department of Commerce. 7
6 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% -3% -4% -5% -6% -7% -8% -9% -10% 2.7%2.6% 3.0%3.3% 4.2% Quarterly % Change in U.S. Economic Output (Real GDP - Chainweighted 2005$) 1.8 % 3.2% 2.1% 5.1% 1.6 % 0.1% 2.7% 0.5% 3.6% 3.0% Maximum Sustainable Growth Rate = 3% 1.7% - 1.8% 1.3 % 04:1 05:1 06:1 07:1 08:1 09:1-0.3% 10:1 11:01 12:01 13:01-3.7% - 8.9% - 5.2% 1.4 % 4.0% 2.3%2.2% 2.6% 2.4% 0.1% 2.5% 1.3 % Below trend growth Falling stimulus spending Less inventory rebuilding Slowing Euro-Zone Financial crisis Deleveraging households Rising savings rates 4.1% 2.0% 1.3 % 2.7% 2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5% Source: Department of Commerce. 7
7 3rd Quarter 2012 GDP Spending = C + I + G + X M % of total = (70.6) (14.0) (18.5) (13.4) (-16.4) Growth rate = (1.4) (6.7) (3.5) (1.1) (0.1) Contribution = (1.0) + (0.9) + (0.7) + (0.1) + (0.0) = 2.7% ( ) 1/4-1 = = 0.67%
8 Consumer spending 3rd Quarter 2012 GDP Spending = C + I + G + X M % of total = (70.6) (14.0) (18.5) (13.4) (-16.4) Growth rate = (1.4) (6.7) (3.5) (1.1) (0.1) Contribution = (1.0) + (0.9) + (0.7) + (0.1) + (0.0) = 2.7% ( ) 1/4-1 = = 0.67%
9 Business & Residential Investment 3rd Quarter 2012 GDP Spending = C + I + G + X M % of total = (70.6) (14.0) (18.5) (13.4) (-16.4) Growth rate = (1.4) (6.7) (3.5) (1.1) (0.1) Contribution = (1.0) + (0.9) + (0.7) + (0.1) + (0.0) = 2.7% ( ) 1/4-1 = = 0.67%
10 Government Spending 3rd Quarter 2012 GDP Spending = C + I + G + X M % of total = (70.6) (14.0) (18.5) (13.4) (-16.4) Growth rate = (1.4) (6.7) (3.5) (1.1) (0.1) Contribution = (1.0) + (0.9) + (0.7) + (0.1) + (0.0) = 2.7% ( ) 1/4-1 = = 0.67%
11 3rd Quarter 2012 GDP Exports Spending = C + I + G + X M % of total = (70.6) (14.0) (18.5) (13.4) (-16.4) Growth rate = (1.4) (6.7) (3.5) (1.1) (0.1) Contribution = (1.0) + (0.9) + (0.7) + (0.1) + (0.0) = 2.7% ( ) 1/4-1 = = 0.67%
12 US Payroll Employment Monthly Changes SA Thousands Recession Payroll 150,000 Target
13 Unemployment Rate (Percent) Recession 3 Unemployment 2 Underemployment (U-6) 1 Full Employment (NAIRU) Source: Department of Labor. 12
14 6% Inflation (CPI) (year over year % growth) 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% -3% Headline Core (excludes food and energy)
15 October Data:
16 October Data: Inflation: 0.1% m/m, 2.2% y/y.
17 October Data: Inflation: 0.1% m/m, 2.2% y/y. Falling energy prices countered surging good prices.
18 October Data: Inflation: 0.1% m/m, 2.2% y/y. Falling energy prices countered surging good prices. Core inflation: 0.2% m/m, 2.0% y/y.
19 October Data: Inflation: 0.1% m/m, 2.2% y/y. Falling energy prices countered surging good prices. Core inflation: 0.2% m/m, 2.0% y/y. Big gain in shelter index (rents).
20 October Data: Inflation: 0.1% m/m, 2.2% y/y. Falling energy prices countered surging good prices. Core inflation: 0.2% m/m, 2.0% y/y. Big gain in shelter index (rents). Right at Federal Reserve s target.
21 October Data: Inflation: 0.1% m/m, 2.2% y/y. Falling energy prices countered surging good prices. Core inflation: 0.2% m/m, 2.0% y/y. Big gain in shelter index (rents). Right at Federal Reserve s target. Expect lower inflation in 2013 due to a lack of broad pricing power and the subdued economic recovery.
22 October Data: Inflation: 0.1% m/m, 2.2% y/y. Falling energy prices countered surging good prices. Core inflation: 0.2% m/m, 2.0% y/y. Big gain in shelter index (rents). Right at Federal Reserve s target. Expect lower inflation in 2013 due to a lack of broad pricing power and the subdued economic recovery. Lower inflation will boost real disposable income growth rates.
23 October Data: Inflation: 0.1% m/m, 2.2% y/y. Falling energy prices countered surging good prices. Core inflation: 0.2% m/m, 2.0% y/y. Big gain in shelter index (rents). Right at Federal Reserve s target. Expect lower inflation in 2013 due to a lack of broad pricing power and the subdued economic recovery. Lower inflation will boost real disposable income growth rates. The recent deceleration in inflation was a factor pushing the Federal Reserve to implement another round of quantitative easing QE-3 (print money to buy assets)
24 Interest Rates and Recessions Recession Baa Fed Funds 10-yr Treas
25 Fed will raise interest rates when:
26 Fed will raise interest rates when: Credit demand rises
27 Fed will raise interest rates when: Credit demand rises Unemployment rate falls
28 Fed will raise interest rates when: Credit demand rises Unemployment rate falls Inflation expectations rise
29 Household Debt (As a Percent of Disposable Household Income) 140% 130% 120% 110% 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% % 130% 120% 110% 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% Source: BEA & Federal Reserve. 28
30 2000 Single Family Housing Starts & Building Pe rmits (seasonally adjusted annual rate) Thousands Thousands Starts Recession Building Permits 29
31 $20 $19 $18 Source: Congressional Budget Office, Federal Government Debt Held by Public Dollar Amount Percent of GDP > 90% => 1% GDP Loss 120% 110% $ Trillion $17 $16 $15 $14 $13 $12 $11 $10 $9 $8 $7 $ % 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% Percent $5 $4 $3 $2 $1 $ % 30% 20%
32 $ Trillion $20 $19 $18 $17 $16 $15 $14 $13 $12 $11 $10 $9 $8 $7 $6 Source: Congressional Budget Office, Federal Government Debt Held by Public Dollar Amount Percent of GDP > 90% => 1% GDP Loss Excludes debt held by Federal Reserve Banks and government trust funds % 110% 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% Percent $5 $4 $3 $2 $1 $ % 30% 20%
33 $ Trillion $20 $19 $18 $17 $16 $15 $14 $13 $12 $11 $10 $9 $8 $7 $6 Source: Congressional Budget Office, Federal Government Debt Held by Public Dollar Amount Percent of GDP > 90% => 1% GDP Loss Excludes debt held by Federal Reserve Banks and government trust funds Debt = $16 trillion % 110% 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% Percent $5 $4 $3 $2 $1 $ % 30% 20%
34 $ Trillion $20 $19 $18 $17 $16 $15 $14 $13 $12 $11 $10 $9 $8 $7 $6 Source: Congressional Budget Office, Federal Government Debt Held by Public Dollar Amount Percent of GDP > 90% => 1% GDP Loss Excludes debt held by Federal Reserve Banks and government trust funds Debt = $16 trillion Fed. Res. Holds $1.9 trillion % 110% 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% Percent $5 $4 $3 $2 $1 $ % 30% 20%
35 $ Trillion $20 $19 $18 $17 $16 $15 $14 $13 $12 $11 $10 $9 $8 $7 $6 Source: Congressional Budget Office, Federal Government Debt Held by Public Dollar Amount Percent of GDP > 90% => 1% GDP Loss Excludes debt held by Federal Reserve Banks and government trust funds Debt = $16 trillion Fed. Res. Holds $1.9 trillion SS Trust Fund holds $2.9 trillion % 110% 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% Percent $5 $4 $3 $2 $1 $ % 30% 20%
36 $20 $19 $18 Source: Congressional Budget Office, Federal Government Debt Held by Public Dollar Amount Percent of GDP > 90% => 1% GDP Loss 120% 110% $ Trillion $17 $16 $15 $14 $13 $12 $11 $10 $9 $8 $7 $6 2012: % 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% Percent $5 $4 $3 $2 $1 $ % 30% 20%
37 $20 $19 $18 Source: Congressional Budget Office, Federal Government Debt Held by Public Dollar Amount Percent of GDP > 90% => 1% GDP Loss 120% 110% $ Trillion $17 $16 $15 $14 $13 $12 $11 $10 $9 $8 $7 $6 Public Debt 2012: = $11.2 Trillion % 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% Percent $5 $4 $3 $2 $1 $ % 30% 20%
38 $20 $19 $18 Source: Congressional Budget Office, Federal Government Debt Held by Public Dollar Amount Percent of GDP > 90% => 1% GDP Loss 120% 110% $ Trillion $17 $16 $15 $14 $13 $12 $11 $10 $9 $8 $7 $6 2012: Public Debt = $11.2 Trillion Public-Debt-to-GDP = 72.5% % 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% Percent $5 $4 $3 $2 $1 $ % 30% 20%
39 $20 $19 $18 Source: Congressional Budget Office, Federal Government Debt Held by Public Dollar Amount Percent of GDP > 90% => 1% GDP Loss 120% 110% $ Trillion $17 $16 $15 $14 $13 $12 $11 $10 $9 $8 $7 $6 Rogoff/Reinhart 90% limit 2012: Public Debt = $11.2 Trillion Public-Debt-to-GDP = 72.5% % 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% Percent $5 $4 $3 $2 $1 $ % 30% 20%
40 Is our D/Y a problem?
41 Is our D/Y a problem? Default risk
42 Does the U.S. budget parallel the Greek budget? 41
43 Does the U.S. budget parallel the Greek budget? U.S. Greece 42
44 Does the U.S. budget parallel the Greek budget? U.S. Greece Debt issued in domestic currency? 43
45 Does the U.S. budget parallel the Greek budget? U.S. Greece Debt issued in domestic currency? Yes No 44
46 Does the U.S. budget parallel the Greek budget? U.S. Greece Debt issued in domestic currency? Yes No Currency is world s reserve currency? 45
47 Does the U.S. budget parallel the Greek budget? U.S. Greece Debt issued in domestic currency? Yes No Currency is world s reserve currency? Yes No 46
48 Does the U.S. budget parallel the Greek budget? U.S. Greece Debt issued in domestic currency? Yes No Currency is world s reserve currency? Yes No Net public debt-to-gdp 47
49 Does the U.S. budget parallel the Greek budget? U.S. Greece Debt issued in domestic currency? Yes No Currency is world s reserve currency? Yes No Net public debt-to-gdp 73% 115% 48
50 Does the U.S. budget parallel the Greek budget? U.S. Greece Debt issued in domestic currency? Yes No Currency is world s reserve currency? Yes No Net public debt-to-gdp 73% 115% Large & liquid bond market? 49
51 Does the U.S. budget parallel the Greek budget? U.S. Greece Debt issued in domestic currency? Yes No Currency is world s reserve currency? Yes No Net public debt-to-gdp 73% 115% Large & liquid bond market? Yes No 50
52 Does the U.S. budget parallel the Greek budget? U.S. Greece Debt issued in domestic currency? Yes No Currency is world s reserve currency? Yes No Net public debt-to-gdp 73% 115% Large & liquid bond market? Yes No Dire demographic outlook? 51
53 Does the U.S. budget parallel the Greek budget? U.S. Greece Debt issued in domestic currency? Yes No Currency is world s reserve currency? Yes No Net public debt-to-gdp 73% 115% Large & liquid bond market? Yes No Dire demographic outlook? No Yes 52
54 Does the U.S. budget parallel the Greek budget? U.S. Greece Debt issued in domestic currency? Yes No Currency is world s reserve currency? Yes No Net public debt-to-gdp 73% 115% Large & liquid bond market? Yes No Dire demographic outlook? No Yes Analogy Test: Essential similarities > Essential differences 53
55 Does the U.S. budget parallel the Greek budget? U.S. Greece Debt issued in domestic currency? Yes No Currency is world s reserve currency? Yes No Net public debt-to-gdp 73% 115% Large & liquid bond market? Yes No Dire demographic outlook? No Yes Analogy Test: Essential similarities > Essential differences Conclusion: False analogy 54
56 Does the U.S. budget parallel the Greek budget? U.S. Greece Debt issued in domestic currency? Yes No Currency is world s reserve currency? Yes No Net public debt-to-gdp 73% 115% Large & liquid bond market? Yes No Dire demographic outlook? No Yes Analogy Test: Essential similarities > Essential differences Conclusion: False analogy But no excuse for U.S. policymakers not to address $84 trillion implicit (unfunded) liabilities. 55
57 $500 Federal Government Surplus/Deficit (Billions of Dollars) $250 $0 -$250 -$ $750 -$1,000-1,079 -$1,250 -$1,500 Source: Congressional Budget Office. -1,400-1,294-1,296
58 Taxmageddon $600 Billion in Tax Increases and Spending Cuts Assuming President/Congress does not act Tax Policy Expiring on 1/1/13 Tax Increase (Billions) Bush tax cuts $166 Payroll tax cut $125 Alternative minimum tax patch $119 Tax cuts from 2009 stimulus $21 Tax extenders $21 Death tax at 35 percent with $5 million exemption $ percent expensing of business investment $8 Tax Policy Beginning on 1/1/13 Tax hike in Obamacare $23 Automatic Spending Cuts Budget Control Act $100 $600 Billion = 4% of a $15.5 Trillion Economy!
59 65 Employment-to-Population Vs Debt-to-GDP (Percent) Recession Employment-to-Population (LHS) Employment Ratio Target = 62.5% Debt-to-GDP (RHS) Source: Department of Labor.
60 (Percent) Unemployment Rate Vs Budget Deficit-to-GDP Recession Deficit-to-GDP 5% Unemployment Target Unemployment Rate 3% Sustaintable Deficit Target
61 (Percent) Unemployment Rate Vs Budget Deficit-to-GDP Recession Deficit-to-GDP 5% Unemployment Target Unemployment Rate 3% Sustaintable Deficit Target
62 (Percent) Unemployment Rate Vs Budget Deficit-to-GDP Recession Deficit-to-GDP 5% Unemployment Target Unemployment Rate 3% Sustaintable Deficit Target
63 (Percent) Unemployment Rate Vs Budget Deficit-to-GDP Recession Deficit-to-GDP 5% Unemployment Target Unemployment Rate 3% Sustaintable Deficit Target
64 (Percent) Unemployment Rate Vs Budget Deficit-to-GDP Recession Deficit-to-GDP 5% Unemployment Target Unemployment Rate 3% Sustaintable Deficit Target
65 Unemployment Rate (Percent) Recession U.S. Minnesota Wisconsin Illinois Source: Department of Labor
66 Unemployment Rate (Percent) Recession U.S. Milwaukee Greenbay Madison Source: Department of Labor. 1 0
67 15 OFHEO House Price Index (4-Qtr Percent Change) Recession Iowa -15 Minnesota Wisconsin -15
68 20 15 Single-family detached housing Conventional conforming repeat mortgage transactions Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac data OFHEO House Price Index (4-Qtr Percent Change) Re ce ssion Milwauke e Greenbay Madison -10
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