Retail Beef Insights from IRI Panel Data:

Transcription

1 Retail Beef Insights from IRI Panel Data: ALISON KREBS Director Market Intelligence NCBA, A Contractor to the Beef Checkoff January, 2017

2 2 Agenda What is panel data? Why purchase this data? What data was purchased? What are the limitations? What was learned?

3 3 What is Panel Data? Scanner Data Summarizes overall consumer purchases What and how much purchased from where More detail, total of actual sales Panel Data Links demographics to purchases 100,000 households vs. all sales (sample of total) Reflect overall population Who purchased how much of what from where

4 4 Why Purchase This Data? Gaps in scanner data Checkoff doesn t purchase retailer specific information Some retailers (and types) aren t included in scanner data Panel data benefits Enables better sizing of overall retail channel Provides demographic insights into beef purchasers Much lower cost than scanner data

5 5 What Panel Data Was Purchased? Four years of sales data Two years of demographic data 2014, 2015 Product Categories Fresh beef Total beef Ground beef Steaks Roasts Other Select processed beef: jerky/dried meat snacks

6 6 What Panel Data Was Purchased? Specific Retailers Whole Foods Costco Walmart Retailer Types Total US Grocery Club Drug Convenience/Gas Internet Military Mass (incl. Walmart) Dollar Specialty Remaining Data Categories Dollar Sales Unit Sales* Pound Sales** % of Households Buying % Buyers Repeating Dollar Sales per Buyer Unit Sales per Buyer Purchase Occasions per Buyer Dollar Sales per Occasion Unit Sales per Occasion Purchase Cycle Average *Number of packages **Derived from units and scanner data

7 7 What Panel Data Was Purchased? Demographics Index Data at Product Category Level Buyer Do they buy? Dollar How much do they spend? Unit How many packages to they buy? Categories Age Generation Race/Ethnicity Income Level Household Size Household Structure With Kids Age of Kids Marital Status Geography Education Population Density Employment Status Rent vs. Own

8 8 What Limitations Does Panel Data Have? Self reported not actual sales Less detail available No cut level data No actual price data Some data is extrapolated Demographic data is indexed Directional Versus Precision

9 What Was Learned? 9

10 560,000 Fewer Households Purchased Beef in 2015 vs % Share of Households Purchasing Beef by Category 90% Percent of HH Buying 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% BEEF OTHER BEEF ROAST BEEF STEAKS GROUND BEEF TOTAL BEEF Sources: IRI Panel Data, and US Census Bureau 10

11 : Retail Beef Purchases Have Declined by 1.25 Occasions Per Year 14 Purchase Occasions Per Buyer by Category Annual Purchase Occasions BEEF OTHER BEEF ROAST BEEF STEAKS GROUND BEEF TOTAL BEEF Source: IRI Panel Data,

12 Scanner Data (MULO) Captures ~87% of Fresh Beef Sales RETAIL BEEF SALES ($) Beyond MULO 13% BEYOND MULO BEEF SALES Specialty 36% Conv/Gas 4% MULO = Scanner Data 87% Remaining 2% Military 10% Internet 5% Sources: IRI Panel Data, and IRI/Freshlook Total US MULO, 52 weeks ending 12/27/15; Categorized by VMMeat System Costco 42% Dollar Drug 1% 0% 12

13 Costco and Specialty Retailers Dominate All Category Sales 300 Beef Pound Sales by Category and Retailer Type 250 Million Pounds GROUND BEEF BEEF STEAKS BEEF ROAST BEEF OTHER Conv/Gas Costco Dollar Drug Internet Military Remaining Specialty Source: IRI Panel Data,

14 Costco Package Sizes are Largest, Dollar and Drug Are Smallest Pounds per Package Average Package Size Source: IRI Panel Data,

15 Dollar and Drug Store Beef Sales Focus on Ground Beef Percent of Total Pounds 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Ground Beef % of Total Sales by Channel Source: IRI Panel Data,

16 Grocery Dominates Ground Beef Sales Followed by Mass and Club Ground Beef Pound Sales by Retailer Type 1% 19% 1% 0% 3% Club Conv/Gas Dollar 65% 11% 0% 0% 0% Drug Grocery Internet Mass w WMT Military Remaining Specialty Source: IRI Panel Data,

17 Online Beef Sales Are Small; Steak Share Has Dropped Dramatically Percent of Pounds 1.6% 1.4% 1.2% 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% Internet Beef Sales Share of Retail Beef Sales Steak 0.4% BEEF OTHER BEEF ROAST BEEF STEAKS GROUND BEEF TOTAL BEEF Source: IRI Panel Data,

18 Younger Singles Purchase Beef Less Frequently Buyer Index HH w/younger Chldrn oldest under age of 11 Beef Purchase Frequency by Household Type HH w/older Chldrn oldest child years Young Singles years of age Older Singles aged 45 or older Young Couples no children aged Older Couples no children aged 45 or older Group differs significantly for index values above 120 or below 80 Total Beef Ground Beef Steaks Roasts Other Source: IRI Panel Data,

19 Higher Education = Less Spending on Beef Beef Spending by Education Level Group differs significantly for index values above 120 or below 80 Dollar Index HH Educ Graduated High School or Less HH Some College HH Graduated College HH Post Graduate School Total Beef Ground Beef Steaks Roasts Other Source: IRI Panel Data,

20 Millennials Purchase Fewer Roasts Unit Index Gen 1 Millennial HH Born Beef Units Purchasing by Generation Gen 2 Gen X HH born Gen 3 Yngr Boomers HH born Gen 4 Older Boomers HH born Gen 5 Retirees HH born Total Beef Ground Beef Steaks Roasts Other Group differs significantly for index values above 120 or below 80 Gen 6 Seniors HH born before 1936 Source: IRI Panel Data,

21 Asians and Blacks Have Weaker Beef Purchase Patterns 120 Beef Purchase Frequency by Race (Ethnicity) Group differs significantly for index values above 120 or below Buyer Index White Asian Black Other (mostly Hispanic) Total Beef Ground Beef Steaks Roasts Other Source: IRI Panel Data,

22 Where do Consumers Purchase Beef Jerky/Dried Meat Snacks? 3% 3% Share of Pound Sales by Retailer Type 2% 11% 7% 5% 2% 31% 35% Club Conv/Gas Dollar Drug Grocery Internet Mass w WMT Military Remaining Specialty 1% Percent of Households Buying 14% 12% 10% 35.6% of Households Purchase Dried Meat Snacks/Jerky 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Club Conv/Gas Dollar Drug Grocery Internet Mass w WMT Military Remaining Specialty Source: IRI Panel Data,

23 Households With Teenagers Purchase DMS/Jerky Most Frequently Buyer Index HH w/younger Chldrn oldest under age of 11 Total Beef Dried Meat Snacks/Jerky HH w/older Chldrn oldest child years Young Singles years of age Older Singles aged 45 or older Young Couples no children aged Group differs significantly for index values above 120 or below 80 Older Couples no children aged 45 or older Source: IRI Panel Data,

24 Summary There s a lot to this data set MULO still dominates fresh beef sales (87%) Supply and price swings have chased away some households Product mix varies by retailer type Something s going on with online steak purchases C Stores don t rule Dried Meat Snacks/Jerky these are also grocery/mass products 24

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