I Have Nothing Profound the Say. except, many of the things we used to know we all knew, have changed 7/23/2014. Ted Abernathy

Size: px

Start display at page:

Download "I Have Nothing Profound the Say. except, many of the things we used to know we all knew, have changed 7/23/2014. Ted Abernathy"

Ellen Eaton
6 years ago
Views:

mills of NC (First generation workers) Everybody

highest grade of school was 6 th No body ever had a

a foreign car Roy Wade Margaret Genora I Have Nothing

1 Ted Abernathy Everybody farmed and all 4 worked in textile mills of NC (First generation workers) Everybody lived in towns of less than 3,000 (sort of) The highest grade of school was 6 th No body ever had a passport, airplane ticket, mobile phone, computer or a foreign car Roy Wade Margaret Genora I Have Nothing Profound the Say Think except, many of the things we used to know we all knew, have changed 1

Everyone has a plan till they get hit in the mouth Mike Tyson Mike

anything but a world uprooting its foundations, overturning its

Peter Drucker 1957 Is the dizzying disorientation brought on by the

2 Everyone has a plan till they get hit in the mouth Mike Tyson Mike Tyson No one born after the turn of the century has ever known anything but a world uprooting its foundations, overturning its values and toppling its idols. Peter Drucker 1957 Is the dizzying disorientation brought on by the premature arrival of the future, a product of the greatly accelerated rate of change in society. Alvin Toffler

3 Today s New Place Reality The economy changed The competition changed Locational factors changed The U.S. workforce has changed The talent demands changed Customer (talent & companies) demands/expectations changed The pace of change and everything else changed conundrums Complex or perplexing problems that generally have no clear solution. 3

4 Seeing the Future trend spotting Urbanization Global Integration Increasing Competition Economy & job Transformation Technology Global Interdependence 4

5 Most Competitive Manufacturing Countries China 2. United States 3. South Korea 4. United Kingdom 5. Japan 6. Netherlands 7. Germany 8. Italy 9. Belgium 10.France Source: Boston Consulting Group, April 25,

6 Source: The Motley Fool, March, Source: BP, July

7 Food and Water Military Spending 2013 in $B 7

8 Geopolitics What Are The Social Implications? The globalization of norms, values, and ideas Due process of law, universal education, legal safeguards for business and finance, the place of women, concepts of civil society, self determination, ownership. Individually (Personal Rights) Community (Collective Good) 8

State Goods Exports Per Capita 2013 $16,000 $14,000 $13,637 $12,000 $10,000 $10,575 $8,000 $6,000 $3,990 $5,753 $4,138 $5,468 $4,986 $4,000 $2,000 $2,420 $3,092$3,761 $1,982 $2,139 $2,976 $1,796

9 State Goods Exports Per Capita 2013 $16,000 $14,000 $13,637 $12,000 $10,000 $10,575 $8,000 $6,000 $3,990 $5,753 $4,138 $5,468 $4,986 $4,000 $2,000 $2,420 $3,092$3,761 $1,982 $2,139 $2,976 $1,796 $2,172 $2,952 $0 AL AR FL GA KY LA MD MO MS NC OK SC TN TX VA WV Source: data from U.S. Census and Foreign Trade State Goods % Exports Growth % 50% 53% 50% 40% 30% 25% 37% 30% 31% 29% 28% 25% 35% 32% 20% 16% 18% 10% 0% 9% 5% 0% AL AR FL GA KY LA MD MO MS NC OK SC TN TX VA WV Source: data from U.S. Census and Foreign Trade Urbanization 9

10 U.S. Population Concentration Metro-Non-Metro 100% Almost 60% of US population lives in Cities 90% 80% of 1 million or more 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% In 2012 over 90% of GDP and 20% 86% of all jobs are in 10% metropolitan areas 0% Metro Non-Metro Source: Census Source: Atlantic Cities, March 28,

Population Rural & Small Cities 2010 51% 61% 13% 35% 59% 39% 17% 43% 72% 45% 54% 44% 46% 30% 25% 67% 50% 20%

11 Source: Atlantic Cities, March, 2014 Half of the US Population Lives in these 146 Counties SOURCE: BUSINESS INSIDER 2013 WALTER HICKEY AND JOE WEISENTHAL 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% Southern States % of Population Rural & Small Cities % 61% 13% 35% 59% 39% 17% 43% 72% 45% 54% 44% 46% 30% 25% 67% 50% 20% 58% 46% 0% AL AR FL GA KY LA MD MO MS NC OK SC TN TX VA WV KS IL IA NE Source: U.S. Census 2010, Daily Yonder

12 The Individual Focus Workforce Conundrum for Places Place Trains Talent Talent Seeks Job Talent Leaves Place The Technology Conundrum Energy McKinsey & Company Disruptive Technologies: May 2013 Mobile Internet Advanced Materials Next Generation Genomics Robotics, Cloud, Digital intel, 3D Printing 12

13 Source: Business Insider, The Economist, 2014 Flat Screen TVs Moveable Sidewalks Electric Toothbrushes Automatics Doors Robot Vacuum Cleaners Videophones Homework on Tape Communicator Virtual meetings Wearable medical sensors 3 D images Replicators 13

14 Source: Business Insider 14

15 Economy and Job Transformation US Adults Years School Completed 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 76% In 1980, 32% had some college & 17% BA In 2010, 56% some college & 30% BA 37% 31% 31% 26% 30% 14% 13% 15% 17% 5% 5% Less than HS HS Grad Some College BA plus

Source: mark Perry, AIE What % of Jobs, in America, in 2022

Less than high school 26% Doctoral or professional degree 3%

Associate s degree 4% High school diploma or equivalent 39%

16 Source: mark Perry, AIE What % of Jobs, in America, in 2022 will require a Bachelor s Degree or more? Less than high school 26% Doctoral or professional degree 3% Jobs in 2022 Master s degree 2% Bachelor s degree 18% Associate s degree 4% High school diploma or equivalent 39% Postsecondary non degree award 6% Some college, no degree 2% Source: BLS, June

17 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Do We Have Enough Good Jobs? Occupations projected to provide the largest number of new jobs Child care workers ($19,300) Personal care aides ($19,640) Home health aides ($20,560) Janitors and cleaners ($22,210) Teacher s assistants ($23,220) Source: Center for Working Class Studies, Jack Metzgar, 2012 Source: National Employment Law Project,

thinking/problem solving Ability & willinsness to learn new skills 82% 84% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% Source: Life in the 21 st Century,

18 Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, National Science Foundation Importance of Skills When Hiring? Subject matter expertise 53% Ability to analyze & synthesize info Interpersonal communication Collaboration/teamwork 69% 72% 74% Critical thinking/problem solving Ability & willinsness to learn new skills 82% 84% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% Source: Life in the 21 st Century, University of Phoenix, 2011 Inflation adjusted wages for high school grads are 11% lower today than in 2000 Wage stagnation for lower skills and fast growth at the higher skills Labor market polarization (David Autor MIT) 18

Supply Driven Workforce Solutions Move people out of poverty Help unemployed find jobs Educate for increased skills Train for increased skills Demand Driven Workforce Solutions Find just in time

) Work Skills (Such as communication, problem solving, and critical thinking) Life Skills (Such as honesty, dependability, teamwork and, positive attitude) 250 200 150 100 Can the Skills of the

19 Supply Driven Workforce Solutions Move people out of poverty Help unemployed find jobs Educate for increased skills Train for increased skills Demand Driven Workforce Solutions Find just in time talent Reduce costs Minimize risk Maximize profits Job Specific Skills (Such as construction trades, coding, or customer service.) Work Skills (Such as communication, problem solving, and critical thinking) Life Skills (Such as honesty, dependability, teamwork and, positive attitude) Can the Skills of the Talent Pool Keep Up With the Demand for Skills? Are the demands of businesses rising faster than the abilities of the average worker with average intelligence, average skills and average motivation? Demands by Business Workforce Skills Source: No source, I made this up 19

20 Delta Regional Authority Workforce Summit Madisonville Community College September 23rd 20

21 Intensifying Competition How Is The Economy? 21

22 14% 12% Global Unemployment Rates 11.6% 10% 8.8% 8% 6% 4% 6.1% 3.5% 4.1% 7.1% 6.0% 4.9% 4.9% 2% 0% US Japan China Canada Euro Area Austrialia India Brazil Russia Source: The Economist July 19, % Global Unemployment Rates 3 Years 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 11.6% 10.8% 10.0% 9.1% 8.8% 7.1% 7.1% 6.1% 6.1% 6.0% 6.0% 6.1% 4.3% 5.2% 4.1% 4.9% 4.9% 3.5% 2% 0% US Japan China Canada Euro AreaAustrialia India Brazil Russia Source: The Economist July % 7% 6% Projected GDP % 6.0% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 2.1% 1.5% 2.3% 1.1% 3.0% 1.0% 0.6% 0% US Japan China Canada Euro Area Austrialia India Brazil Russia Source: The Economist July 19,

9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 1% Projected GDP 2013 & 2014 2.1% 2.3% 1.9% 1.7% 1.5% 1.7% 7.7% 7.3% 6.0% 4.9% 3.0% 2.4% 2.2% 1.5% 1.1% 1.0% 0.6% 0.

23 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 1% Projected GDP 2013 & % 2.3% 1.9% 1.7% 1.5% 1.7% 7.7% 7.3% 6.0% 4.9% 3.0% 2.4% 2.2% 1.5% 1.1% 1.0% 0.6% 0.4% US Japan China Canada Euro Area Austrialia India Brazil Russia Source: The Economist July 19, 2014 Global Fertility Rates Source: Wikipedia, May 2014 Annual U.S. Employment Change 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000, ,000,000 2,000,000 1,757,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 6,000, ,000 62,000 2,484,000 2,019,000 2,071,000 1,115,000 3,617,000 5,052,000 1,022,000 2,103,000 2,193,0002,247,000 2,770, Source: BLS March and July

24 Annual U.S. Employment Change By Sector June 2013 to June , , , , , , , , , ,000 Construction Manufacturing 593,000 Trade/Trans/Util 28,000 Information 59,000 Financial 647,000 Prof/Biz Services 378, ,000 Ed/Health Services Leisure/Hosp 56,000 Government Source: BLS July 2014 Southern States 1 Year Employment Changes June 2013 to June % 3.0% 3.1% 3.3% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.2% 1.7% 2.1% 2.2% 2.0% 1.8% 1.6% 1.2% 1.5% 1.0% 1.1% 1.0% 0.9% 0.5% 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% AL AR FL GA KY LA MD MO MS NC OK SC TN TX VA WV Source: U.S. BLS, July 19, 2014 Measured June June 2014 Southern States 1 Year Manufacturing Employment Changes June 2013 to June % 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 1.6% 2.1%1.6% 2.0% 0.2% 0.8% 4.1% 2.6% 2.5% 0.1% 3.7% 3.5% 1.4% 1.4% 0.6% 0.0% AL AR FL GA KY LA MD MO MS NC OK SC TN TX VA WV Source: U.S. BLS, July 19, 2014 Measured June June

Top Factors for Companies Considering New Investment 1)

Labor costs 4) Occupancy or construction costs 5)

buildings 7) Corporate tax rate 8) State & Local Incentives

Selection Factors % of QOL Factors Rating as Very Important

Housing Availability 70% 4. Housing Costs 67% 5.

25 Top Factors for Companies Considering New Investment 1) Availability of skilled labor 2) Highway accessibility 3) Labor costs 4) Occupancy or construction costs 5) Availability of advanced ICT services 6) Availability of buildings 7) Corporate tax rate 8) State & Local Incentives 9) Low union profile 10) Energy availability and costs Site Selection Factors % of QOL Factors Rating as Very Important 1. Low Crime Rate 79% 2. Healthcare Facilities 70% 3. Housing Availability 70% 4. Housing Costs 67% 5. Ratings of Public Schools 63% Safety Housing HealthCare Education Source: Area Development 2012 Survey 25

reordering (sharing economy) Intense competition for everything Manufacturing Trend Spotting More automation Less, more highly

26 The Near Future Slow economic growth (US & Global) Rapid technological change Globalization, urbanization, and unevenness Aging and diversity Shifting societal norms Austere government budgets Austere personal budgets Transitioning military Business reordering (sharing economy) Intense competition for everything Manufacturing Trend Spotting More automation Less, more highly skilled, and more productive labor Focus on core functions Global markets and manufacturing Wholesale consolidations (companies and spaces) 26

27 Economic Competitiveness Differentiated Value Prop. Attracting/retaining Talent Training & Retraining Global IQ Minimize Uncertainty & Risk Speed & Ease to Business 27

28 Follow on or LinkedIn Ted Abernathy Leadership and learning are indispensable to each other. John F. Kennedy 28

Texas Mid-Year Economic Outlook: Strong Growth Continues

Texas Mid-Year Economic Outlook: Strong Growth Continues Keith Phillips Assistant Vice President and Senior Economist 9/27/18 The views expressed in this presentation are strictly those of the presenter