Household Production and Consumption over the Life Cycle in Japan: NTA and NTTA summaries by gender from 1999 to 2014

Transcription

1 WITTGENSTEIN CENTRE CONFERENCE 217 AGENTA FINAL CONFERENCE: ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF POPULATION AGEING AND INTERGENERATIONAL EQUITY Vienna, 2 November 217 Household Production and Consumption over the Life Cycle in Japan: NTA and NTTA summaries by gender from 1999 to 214 Setsuya FUKUDA / Itaru SATO (National Institute of Population and Social Security Research) Kazuyuki TERADA / Takahiro TORIYABE / Hidehiko ICHIMURA / Naohiro OGAWA (The University of Tokyo) Rikiya Matsukura (Nihon University)

2 1. Aim of the paper 1. Updating Japanese NTA in terms of data and method 2. Providing descriptive figures of generational economy in comparison with gender during the 2s in Japan 3. Assessing various policy reform using the NTA / NTTA life cycle accounts 2

3 2. Background 3

4 2-1. Population aging and decline Total Pop: mil Total Pop: mil Total Pop: mil Total Pop: 88.1 mil. 597 (5%) 1,613 (13%) 2,18 (18%) 2,248 (26%) (7%) 75 1,734 (14%) 75 1,497 (12%) 75 1,133 (13%) ,59 (61%) 7,28 (55%) 6,635 (54%) 4,189 (48%) ,249 (26%) 2,19 (17%) 1,943 (16%) 1,237 (14%) Sources: Statistics Bureau, Population Census of Japan and NIPSSR (217) Population Projection of Japan:

5 2-2. Prospects of population aging 45 4 % of age 65+ in total pop DEU FRA JPN KOR SWE USA Sources: World Bank World Development Indicators for UN (217) The World Population Prospects, The 217 Revision for NIPSSR (217) Population Projection for Japan: for Japan. 5

6 2-3. Population aging and social expenditure Social Expenditure in % of GDP 35 3 FRA 213 SWE 213 DEU in % of GDP USA UK Japan % of pop. age 65+ Sources: OECD (216): OECD Social Expenditure Database, OECD Health Statistics

7 2-4. Social security expenditure in Japan 9 bln. EUR in Trillion Yen (=7.5 Billion EUR) Per Capita expenditure on social benefit (right axis) Pension Medical Care Welfare and others ,8 9 EUR in 1, Yen (=75.5 EUR) Sources: NIPSSR (217) Financial Statistics of Social Security in Japan

8 3. Policy Reforms during the 2s (Formal childcare: Creating more slots in big cities, but no time-series data) Formal education (High school) Female employment (Long work hours / Dependent spouse privileges in tax, pension and health care: stalled ) Elderly care (Medical care: various adjustments on the price of medical services) (Pension: Increases in pension age and contribution fee) 8

9 4. Focus Focus 1: 1999 vs 24 Introduction of the new social insurance for elderly care (2.4) - Changes in monetary and physical costs of elderly care in the households and government Focus 2: 29 vs 214 Introduction of free tuition fee for high school + child allowances (21.4) - Changes in monetary costs of education in the household Focus 3: 1999 vs 214 Gradual expansion of policy support for female employment ( ) - Changes in gender gaps in paid and unpaid work during the 2s 9

10 NTA Private sector Public sector Macro controls NTTA Time Use Data 5. Data Data and Year Family Income and Expenditure Survey (1999, 24, 29, 214) Education - Statistical abstract on education, culture, sports, science and technology Health - Survey of medical care benefit expenditures, - Estimates of National Medical Care Expenditure Elderly care - Annual report on the long-term care insurance SNA28 Survey on Time Use and Leisure Activities (1996, 21, 26, 211) Description Around 6, households and 17, individuals Statistics from the government reports The specialist replacement method Over 7, households and 17, individuals 1

11 6. Limitation Only life cycle accounts Ignoring institutionalized population Ignoring heterogeneity other than age and sex Not final values 11

12 7. NTA / NTTA overview for

13 7-1. Economic Life Cycle in 214 Per Capita value 5 Japanese Yen in 1, LI C 13

14 7-2. Economic Life Cycle in 214 by Sex Male Female Japanese Yen in 1, 4 Japanese Yen in 1, LI C LI C 14

15 7-3. NTTA in 214 by Sex Male Female 3 3 Japanese Yen in 1, 2 1 Japanese Yen in 1, NTTA Prod NTTA Cons NTTA Prod NTTA Cons 15

16 7-4. NTA + NTTA in 214 by Sex Male Female Japanese Yen in 1, 4 Japanese Yen in 1, LI + NTTA prod C + NTTA cons LI + NTTA prod C + NTTA cons 16

17 7-5. NTA+NTTA: Production in 214 by Sex 214 Male Female 8 8 Japanese Yen in 1, 6 4 Japanese Yen in 1, NTTA NTA NTTA NTA 17

18 7-6. NTA+NTTA: Consumption in 214 by Sex Male 6 Female 5 5 Japanese Yen in 1, 4 3 Japanese Yen in 1, NTTA NTA public NTA private NTTA NTA public NTA private 18

19 7-7. Life Cycle Deficit in 214 Japanese Yen in 1, Per Capita 2. Population Aggregate Private Public NTTA LCD Japanese Yen in 1 billi Private Public NTTA LCD 19

20 8. Examination of the Focus Points 2

21 8-1. Introduction of the long-term care insurance (2.4) Health Consumption: 1999 vs Japanese Yen in 1, 1 Japanese Yen in 1, Public: Elderly care Public: Medical care NTTA Care Private: Health Public: Elderly care Public: Medical care NTTA Care Private: Health 21

22 8-2. NTA differences before and after the LT care insurance Difference: ( ) 8 Male 8 Female 6 6 Japanese Yen in 1, 4 2 Japanese Yen in 1, Public: Elderly care Public: Medical care NTTA Care Private: Health Public: Elderly care Public: Medical care NTTA Care Private: Health 22

23 8-3. NTTA differences before and after the LT care insurance Difference: ( ) Male Female Hours/Week Hours/Week NTTA: care prod NTTA: hwk prod NTTA: care cons NTTA: care prod NTTA: hwk prod NTTA: care cons 23

24 8-4. Introduction of free tuition fee for high school + child allowances (21.4) 8 Private Coonsumption for Education in 29 and 214 Japanese Yen in 1,

25 8-5. Introduction of free tuition fee for high school + child allowances (21.4) Private Consumption for Education: 1999 vs 24 8 Male 8 Female 6 6 Japanese Yen in 1, 4 2 Japanese Yen in 1,

26 8-6. Gradual expansion of policy support for female employment ( ) Hours Spent for Paid and Unpaid Work by Sex Male Female Hours/Week 2 Hours/Week Unpaid 1999 Paid 1999 Unpaid 1999 Paid 1999 Unpaid 24 Paid 24 Unpaid 24 Paid 24 Unpaid 29 Paid 29 Unpaid 29 Paid 29 Unpaid 214 Paid 214 Unpaid 214 Paid

27 8-7. Period differences in time use for paid and unpaid work by sex: Time Differences from 1999 by Sex 1 Male 1 Female 5 5 Hours/Week Hours/Week Paid 24 Unpaid 24 Paid 24 Unpaid 24 Paid 29 Unpaid 29 Paid 29 Unpaid 29 Paid 214 Unpaid 214 Paid 214 Unpaid

28 8-8. Gender differences in time use for paid and unpaid work 1999 vs 214 Time Use, Female - Male Differences Hours/Week Hours/Week Housework Childcare Elderly care Other care Work Housework Childcare Elderly care Other care Work 28

29 8-9. Gender comparison of total production time NTA+NTTA Production Hours by Sex Hours/Week 4 2 Hours/Week Male Female Male Female Hours/Week 4 2 Hours/Week Male Female Male Female 29

30 8-1. Gender differences in labor income in 1999 and 214 Labor Income by Sex: 1999 vs 214 Male Female 8 8 Japanese Yen in 1, Japanese Yen in 1,

31 8-11. Gender differences in unpaid work wages in 1999 and 214 Unpaid work wage by Sex: 1999 vs 214 Male Female 2 2 Japanese Yen in 1, 15 1 Japanese Yen in 1,

32 9. Conclusion NTA/NTTA as a necessary tool for Japan to monitor & analyze the aging society! Focus 1: Socializing elderly care increased total public costs for elderlies, but reduced both medical costs and disabled elderlies Focus 2: Free high school tuition and child allowances decreased household education costs for secondary education, while those of postsecondary education increased Focus 3: a. There is a large gender gap in paid and unpaid work in Japan both in time and monetary basis. b. The gender gaps narrow a bit in both paid and unpaid work by age of 4. 32

33 1. Future work Examination of the shifts or changes in focused points - Running regression models to control for demographic and socioeconomic components behind the age and sex 33

34 Thank you! : fukuda-setsuya@ipss.go.jp 34