FINANCIAL SERVICES SECTOR SURVEY. Final Report March 2014

Transcription

1 FINANCIAL SERVICES SECTOR SURVEY Final Report March 214 Prepared by: GfK Belgium PS Luke Lloyd Final Issue: 7 May 214

2

3 Table of Contents 1 Introduction Survey Design and Methodology Universe Definition Target universe definition Target Universe Description Coverage and Representativeness 2.2 Sample Sample Design and Size Sample Recruitment Panel Constitution Questionnaire Monthly questionnaire Quarterly questionnaire Data collection Online data collection Quality control Response Rates and Reliability of the Results Analysis of response rates broken down by subsector Analysis of response rates broken down by size classes Response rates at question level Analysis of response rates broken down by country Ensuring and maintaining high response Quality assessment Weighting and Calculation of Aggregates Size Weights Aggregation 33 3 Survey results Monthly Survey Results Business situation Demand Employment in the financial sector Quarterly Survey Results Operating income Operating expenses Profitability Capital expenditure Competitive position Quality assessment of the survey results Analysis of results at country level Correlation Fina results and GVA financial and insurance activities y-o-y % change 69

4 Appendix 1: Panel Constitution per country Appendix 2: Completed questionnaires per country per subsector Appendix 3: Completed questionnaires per country per size Appendix 4: Questionnaire Monthly questions 7 2. Quarterly questions (January, April, July and October) 79 Financial services sector survey (7 May 214) 4

5 1 Introduction Since April 211, GfK Belgium PS has performed an EU-wide monthly business survey in the financial services sector on behalf of DG ECFIN. This report is the final report of year 3. This report describes the survey design, methodology and the work carried out between April 213 and March 214 and analyses the results as well as the reliability of the results at country level. The survey is part of the Joint Harmonised EU Programme of Business and Consumer Surveys (BCS) which is managed by DG ECFIN. The programme covers most sectors of the economies of the Member States of the European Union and candidate countries, and provides essential information for economic surveillance, short-term forecasting and economic research. The survey in the financial services sector is carried out on a monthly basis among senior managers of companies active in the NACE subsectors 64, 65 and 66.

6

7 2 Survey Design and Methodology 2.1 Universe Definition Target universe definition The target universe of this study is defined as senior managers working in companies with more than employees, belonging to subsectors 64, 65, and 66 of the Classification of Economic Activities in the European Community, NACE Rev.2, with the exception of subsector This definition was agreed by DG ECFIN in April 211 and has not changed since then. The exact definitions of the three subsectors are as follows: Subsector 64: Financial service activities, except insurance and pension funding (e.g. monetary intermediation; activities of holding companies; trusts, funds and similar financial entities; financial leasing; other credit granting) Subsector 65: Insurance, reinsurance and pension funding, except compulsory social security (e.g. insurance; life insurance; non-life insurance; reinsurance; pension funding) Subsector 66: Activities auxiliary to financial services and insurance activities (e.g. administration of financial markets; security and commodity contracts brokerage; activities auxiliary to insurance and pension funding; risk and damage evaluation; activities of insurance agents and brokers; fund management activities) Target Universe Description Although the universe definition appears quite straightforward, the number of companies included in the defined universe, as provided by different information sources, differs dramatically. An in-depth analysis was made in the first year GfK Belgium PS was running this survey. An analysis of different information sources showed that the comparison between different databases and sources covering the NACE subsectors 64, 65, and 66 gives no clear view on the total universe of these three subsectors. It was agreed by DG ECFIN to use the database figures of Dun&Bradstreet as a description of the target universe. The estimated coverage per market as given by Dun & Bradstreet is about 9% of all companies active in the specific subsectors. This level of coverage should be largely sufficient for the purpose of this survey in terms of representativeness. It can be expected that since these subsectors are largely populated with (very) small companies, the missing coverage is most likely to be among small companies.

8 2.1.3 Coverage and Representativeness As agreed by DG ECFIN, the survey focuses on the following 11 EU countries: Austria Czech Republic Germany Spain France Italy Luxembourg The Netherlands Poland Sweden UK These countries represent % of Gross Value Added in the financial sector in the EU 1. This proportion is sufficiently large to give representative results for the euro area and the EU as a whole. Table 1 gives an overview of the target universe of the 11 countries split by subsector and company size. Table 1: Universe FINA (source D&B213) - all companies excluding trusts (NACE 64.3) _49 5_ Total total % NACE ,1% NACE ,9% NACE ,% Total ,% total % 64,2% 25,1%,7%,% 1 Financial services sector survey (7 May 214)

9 2.2 Sample Sample Design and Size The target monthly sample size, as defined by DG ECFIN, is 5 completed questionnaires per month. In line with the recommendations of both the OECD and the User Guide of the BCS programme, a stratified random sample is used in the survey. Stratification is done at two levels: At the level of the type of economic activity, three strata are used, one per NACE2 code (i.e. 64, 65, 66) At the level of the company size, three strata are also used: -49, and 25+ employees. This means that a 3x3 matrix is compiled for each country, composed of nine strata according to which a random sample is drawn. In order to minimise sampling error, it was decided to draw a disproportionate sample taking into account the relative size (and hence importance) of companies in their respective subsector. The logic behind this reasoning is that by over-sampling strata where the dependent variable of interest exerts a relatively high error variance, one can optimise the sample design and obtain more reliable results. Disproportionate sampling is performed through an equal distribution of the total sample over the different strata. A disproportionate stratified sample design is appropriate because: The number of large companies is small as a proportion of all companies, but they are very important in terms of their added-value and overall effect on the economy. They may only represent % of the total number of companies but their share of the total turnover or addedvalue of the subsector can be considerably larger. In many cases, the proportion of large companies (=the absolute number of large companies of the total defined universe ) is so small that when drawing a proportional sample, the sample of the large companies would be too small to derive reliable conclusions from a statistical point of view. Oversampling larger companies allows the analysis of results according to size of business, and guarantees a sufficient base for analysis within each stratum. Equal sampling by NACE code also allows to conduct analyses by NACE (whereas in a proportionate sampling, sample base would be too small for at least one NACE code) However, some issues did arise when defining the sampling plan for this study. 1. Firstly, in some countries the target universe for some strata is limited. In these cases, a regrouping of strata was needed to reach a sufficient level of potential respondents. This regrouping was done in the first instance at company size level. 2. Secondly, following discussions with DG ECFIN in January 212, it was decided to slightly amend the sample design in April 212. Given that subsector 64 is the most important subsector in the financial services sector, not only in terms of size but also in the type of business, it was decided to put emphasis on sampling in this subsector. A higher sampling Financial services sector survey (7 May 214) 9

10 in subsector 64 would be expected to have a positive impact on the representativeness of the results. As a consequence we can no longer speak of a fully disproportionate sample. The sample still stays disproportionate, given that attention is paid that subsectors 65 and 66 are sufficiently represented in the sample. Following the discussion with DG ECFIN of January 213, the sampling plan was adjusted once more, in order to increase a larger group of panel members in the 5 largest countries (UK, France, Germany, Italy and Spain). This seems to be a necessary condition in order to guarantee a sufficient response and consequently number of completes for these countries. This measure was implemented during the new recruitment wave of April 213, and further supplemented by the new recruitment wave of October 213. These two recruitment waves acted to increase the panel size in these five largest countries Sample Recruitment The OECD and the User Guide of the BCS programme advise the use of a fixed panel for business tendency surveys. This recommendation is followed in this survey. Using a fixed panel has evident benefits concerning reduced sample variance and higher accuracy in measuring trends in the market place. For each country, a panel of (senior) managers of companies in the NACE2 subsectors 64, 65, 66 is set up. Panel members are recruited in two phases. Firstly, potential panel members are contacted through computer assisted telephone interviewing (CATI). Using a short telephone screening questionnaire, their eligibility for the survey is checked and their willingness to participate is confirmed. If the person contacted fulfils the requirements and is willing to participate, an is sent in the second confirmation phase. By answering the short questionnaire accessible through a link in the , the person officially subscribes to the panel. A dedicated website for this study is set up to provide (potential) panel members with more information on the study. If persons contacted by telephone would first prefer to have additional information before deciding to join, they are sent a link to this website, together with a letter of recommendation from DG ECFIN. In principle, panel members are senior level managers in their companies. However, during the telephone interviews the appropriate person for the panel in each company is identified. This could be lower level managers, senior managers or even board members. Persons are selected following a screening on the required profile. Panel members that ask to be unsubscribed, or those who do not answer the survey over a period of 6 months, are replaced in the panel. Financial services sector survey (7 May 214)

11 2.2.3 Panel Constitution Table 2 gives an overview of the panel constitution for each month in the period April March 214. The initial recruitment for the panel took place in April 211. Experience shows that a halfyearly recruitment is necessary to replace those panel members that chose to leave the panel or automatically unsubscribed after six months of non-participation. This means that two new recruitment waves were performed in Year 3 in April 213 and October 213. Table 2: Overview of the panel constitution Total Sector Sector Sector April May June July August September October November December January February March Between April 213 and March 214, the financial services sector survey counted a total of 1492 panel members that actively participated or at least started once the survey. 42% of those panel members participated only once. 37% participated in at least 6 months, of which 15% participated in all 12 months. Still 2% of the active members are panel members recruited at the start of the project in April 211. In Figure 1 the breakdown of the active panel per recruitment wave is shown. Financial services sector survey (7 May 214) 11

12 Figure 1: panel composition per recruitment wave 35, 3, , 2, 2 15,, 5, , April 211 October 211 April 212 October 212 April 213 October 213 In line with findings of previous analyses of the panel, voluntary cancellation of subscription remains very limited. In the period April March 214, 53 people, or 3% of the total panel, voluntarily left the panel, which means they asked to be unsubscribed from the panel. 2 Besides this group of people that asked to be unsubscribed, another considerable group of panel members were inactive for longer parts of the period. As a rule, inactive members are replaced after 6 months of inactivity. A total of 761 panel members were unsubscribed from the panel in the period April 213 March 214 following this rule. The majority of these cancellations of subscription were in April/May and October/November 213, due to new recruits from October 212 and April 213 not participating despite their agreement to be part of the panel 3. Figure 2 gives an overview of the number of active members, voluntary and mandatory cancellations of subscriptions. 2 An overview of the panel constitution per country is given in appendix 1 3 The exact month of cancellation is in these cases dependent on the exact date the newly recruited panel members were uploaded in our panel management system. Financial services sector survey (7 May 214) 12

13 Figure 2: Overview of the panel (N=135) % 42% total panel active panel mandatory cancellation 3% voluntary cancellation Experience shows that a half-yearly recruitment is necessary to replace panel members that actively left the panel or are dormant (i.e. inactive for a longer period). In April and October 213, a halfyearly recruitment wave was undertaken. In April 213, 447 new panel members were recruited. In October 213, 413 additional panel members were added. As mentioned above in section 2.2.1, some adjustments were made in the sampling plan of year 1, placing more emphasis on NACE subsector 64. The recruitment in April 212 was the first recruitment wave which implemented this new sampling plan. The October 212 wave focused mainly on new recruitments in NACE 64 and the largest countries, i.e. France, UK, Germany, and Poland. The April 213 and October 213 recruitment waves focused especially on the largest five countries, as described in section Although NACE subsector 64 is the largest of the three subsectors included in this study, recruitment was difficult in the majority of countries. During previous recruitment waves, recruitment was easiest in this subsector. By increasing the required sample size, this situation has changed. In those countries where the target for the NACE 64 group could not be reached, extra recruits were made in the other groups. In order to counter current difficulties faced in recruitment of new panel members, GfK will use for future recruitments in addition to D&B also other sampling sources. Besides D&B also other providers of Business registers exists. The quality of data can vary between the different registers for each country and in some cases more local business registers could provide additional addresses in each subsector. At the start of the study in April 211 a comparative study between different registers showed that D&B was the most appropriate to use 4. The option to use additional 4 A full description of this analysis was given in the report on universe description delivered by GfK Belgium PS in March 211. Financial services sector survey (7 May 214) 13

14 registers is chosen to complement the address list for those countries where the current recruitment is more difficult. 2.3 Questionnaire The questionnaire has been unchanged since the start of the survey in April 211. The questionnaire is composed of two parts: (1) a set of five monthly recurrent questions; and (2) an additional set of questions asked on a quarterly basis (i.e. asked in January, April, July, and October). The questionnaires are translated into the local languages in order to guarantee a lowlevel entrance point for potential panel members Monthly questionnaire The monthly questionnaire consists of the following five questions: 1. How has your business situation developed over the past 3 months? 2. How has demand (turnover) for your company s services changed over the past 3 months? 3. How do you expect the demand (turnover) for your company s services to change over the next 3 months? 4. How has your firm s total employment changed over the past 3 months? 5. How do you expect your firm s total employment to change over the next 3 months? No changes were made to the monthly questionnaire in comparison to the previous waves of the financial services sector survey Quarterly questionnaire The quarterly questionnaire consists of the following questions. 1. How has your operating income developed over the last 3 months? 2. How do you expect your operating income to develop over the next 3 months? 3. How have your operating expenses developed over the last 3 months? 4. How do you expect your operating expenses to develop over the next 3 months? 5. How has the profitability of your company developed over the last 3 months? 6. How do you expect the profitability of your company to develop over the next 3 months? 7. How has your capital expenditure developed over the last 3 months?. How do you expect your capital expenditure to develop over the next 3 months? 9. How has the competitive position of your company developed over the past 3 months? a) Total b) In your country c) Within the euro area d) Within the EU e) Outside the EU. How do you expect the competitive position of our company to develop over the next 3 months? a) Total b) In your country Financial services sector survey (7 May 214) 14

15 c) Within the euro area d) Within the EU e) Outside the EU 2.4 Data collection Online data collection Monthly data collection is done by means of web interviews, using CAWI (Computer Aided Web Interviews). Online data collection has several advantages in the framework of this study: The monthly questionnaire is very quick to complete and easy to display on a website The longer quarterly questionnaire is still very straightforward, with an anticipated short completion duration which is compatible with the requirements of online data collection. The online method offers flexible data collection regarding the moment of completion by respondents (i.e. outside business hours, at their best convenience) and regarding how respondents complete the survey (at once or over several sessions using a pause option) Internet surveys are easily accessible for business respondents who are highly likely to be computer literate. Specific measures are taken to guarantee confidentiality of the collected data. The online data collection is organised as follows: Each month the panel member receives an with an invitation to complete this month s survey. This contains a URL link to a secured website where he/she can complete the survey, as well as a deadline for the survey completion. The URL link provided in the is unique for each respondent. Consequently, the respondent will not have to register each time he/she participates, but will be identified directly through the link. Respondents clicking on the URL link are re-directed to a secure website. They have the chance to complete the questionnaire in one attempt or complete it at different moments in time through multiple visits. Although the option exists to complete the survey via multiple visits, practice shows that respondents complete the survey almost always at once. The short survey duration (3 minutes on average) makes it unnecessary for most respondents to complete the survey in different phases Quality control To ensure a high quality survey, several quality control processes are developed, which are listed below: Secured website As mentioned before, the data collection is managed through a secured website. This guarantees confidentiality towards the panel members. Only those who receive a link are able to participate in the survey, which ensures that people not qualifying for the survey are not able to complete it. Financial services sector survey (7 May 214) 15

16 Translations It has been decided to provide panel members with questionnaires that are translated into their own language. This ensures that questions are clearly understood by the panel members. Where available, translations used in the previous waves of the survey are implemented. For those languages where no questionnaire was available, translations were made by professional translators and validated by native speakers. Online hotline An online hotline is set up to answer all queries from panel members. All questions are personally answered within a timeframe of 24 hours. Via this address, which is mentioned in every communication, panel members can also inform us about any temporary unavailability (like maternity leaves), changes in contact details, changes in contact persons, or (un)subscribe from the panel. Considering the low number of queries on this hotline concerning the survey questions, this indicates that the questions seem clearly formulated and understandable for the target group of the survey. The only queries received concerned forgotten passwords for consultation of the website secured pages. The online hotline also allows the monitoring of the number of panel members that are out of office, since invitations are sent from the same address. Control monthly data & Treatment missing data During the monthly survey period, data control is performed on a daily basis. This allows for a quick intervention in case of technical problems. Furthermore it allows for a close monitoring of response rates. The final data file is thoroughly checked on possible inconsistencies and on quality of responses. In case of missing data, respondents are cleaned out. The survey script is programmed in such a way that respondents are not allowed to skip questions. Consequently, missing data would only appear in the data set if a technical issue occurs. During the full period that the survey has been active, such issues have not occurred. A process of data cleaning was put in place for the quarterly questions only. As agreed by DG ECFIN, a not applicable option was added in the questionnaire for questions 9 and (competitive position of the company over the past 3 months and over the next 3 months). These two questions are repeated for 5 categories (in total, in your country, within the euro area, within the EU, outside the EU). One cleaning rule is applied to these two questions: If the respondent gives an answer for the section in your country, but answers not applicable to all other categories, the answer of in your country is also added to the category in total. Monitoring panel quality Financial services sector survey (7 May 214) 16

17 A monitoring programme at respondent level is set up to trace the intrinsic quality of each panel member. This closely follows the response rate (the number of times the panel member participates compared to the number of invites), the number of reminders sent, the level of non-response, and length of completion. Through this programme, low quality panel members can be identified and eventually replaced. Further information on this monitoring and quality assessment can be found in section Response Rates and Reliability of the Results Analysis of response rates broken down by subsector Table 3 and Figure 3 give an overview of the monthly response rate per subsector since April 213. Response rates vary between 5% and 66%, which reflects a good response rate for a business survey. The response rate has improved slightly in comparison to year 1. This panel study started in April 211 and the increase in response rate shows that a loyal panel has been built up through this period. The fact that the subscription of panel members that are not active for a period of 6 months is cancelled has a positive impact on response rate. The analysis of the response rate per subsector shows that response rates have remained stable for NACE 64, increased for NACE 66, and decreased for NACE subsector 65 in the past six months. This is reflective of the October 213 recruitment wave focusing on NACE 65 in particular, which has increased the number of NACE 65 panellists but reduced response rates for this group. Although NACE 65 previously had a very high response rate, reflecting loyalty of panellists in this subsector, it was felt that a larger panel was needed for this group in order to reduce reliance on the core of loyal NACE 65 panellists. The response rate for NACE 65 is now at a relatively similar level to that of NACE 64 and 66. The number of completed interviews per subsector is relatively stable over the total period April March 214 and largely proportional to the universe figures. NACE 65 is in this respect overrepresented, but this is as foreseen in the sampling plan in order to guarantee a sufficient number of responses in this subsector. Table 3: Overview response per subsector April 213 May 213 June 213 subsector universe panel completes panel completes panel completes NACE NACE NACE Total July 213 August 213 September 213 subsector universe panel completes panel completes panel completes NACE NACE NACE Financial services sector survey (7 May 214) 17

18 Total October 213 November 213 December 213 subsector universe panel completes panel completes panel completes NACE NACE NACE Total January 214 February 214 March 214 subsector universe panel completes panel completes panel completes NACE NACE NACE Total Figure 3: Response rate per subsector 12% % % 6% 4% 2% % NACE64 NACE65 NACE66 Total Analysis of response rates broken down by size classes Table 5 and Figure 4 give an overview of the monthly response rate per size class since April 213. Analyses of the response rates broken down by size class shows response rates are lowest among large companies during the summer months, with this group falling below 5% response rate from June to August. In order to guarantee a good response rate and a sufficient number of completes for this group of companies, the October 213 recruitment partly focussed on a higher number of Financial services sector survey (7 May 214) 1

19 recruits in this group. The effect of the recruitment in October 213 is clearly shown in Figure 4, where since October 213 response rates in the three size classes are between 5% and 7%. Table 4 : Overview response per size class April 213 May 213 June 213 size class universe panel completes panel completes panel completes Small Medium Large Total July 213 August 213 September 213 size class universe panel completes panel completes panel completes Small Medium Large Total October 213 November 213 December 213 size class universe panel completes panel completes panel completes Small Medium Large Total January 214 February 214 March 214 size class universe panel completes panel completes panel completes Small Medium Large Total Financial services sector survey (7 May 214) 19

20 Figure 4: response rate per size class % 9% % 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% % % small medium large Total Response rates at question level Response rates shown above apply to panel members who also completed the survey. An analysis of drop-out during the questionnaire could give indications for possible questionnaire improvements. Figure 5 gives an overview of responses per question, with all respondents for all months (April 213 March 214) taken together. The graph shows clearly that the number of respondents clicking on the link is much higher than the number of respondents answering the questions. In fact the largest drop out happens between the start of the survey and the first question. Once they click on the link, 96% of respondents complete the survey, the same proportion of completes as in Year 2 of this survey. As the graph shows clearly, the intermediate drop-out is negligible. The financial services sector survey is a very short survey and, as already mentioned before, the average time for completion is only 3 minutes. Such a low drop-out is thus not very surprising. This low drop-out rate also indicates that the survey is of good quality. Financial services sector survey (7 May 214) 2

21 Figure 5: response monthly questions intake cq1 cq2 cq3 cq4 cq5 The same analysis applies when one looks at the quarterly questions, as shown in Figure 6. Figure 6: response quarterly questions Financial services sector survey (7 May 214) 21

22 2.5.4 Analysis of response rates broken down by country Table 5 and Figure 7 give an overview of the monthly number of completed interviews per country since April 213. The analysis of the number of completed interviews broken down by country shows response can vary between countries. The lowest number of completed interviews is to be found in the Czech Republic, Luxembourg, Poland and Sweden. The effect of the recruitment waves in April and October 213 is clearly shown in Figure 7. An increase in total number of completes is seen in both May and November, which declines again steadily in the months following. Table 5 : overview response per country April 213 May 213 June 213 Universe Panel Completes Panel Completes Panel Completes Austria Czech Republic Germany Spain France Italy Luxembourg Netherlands Poland Sweden UK TOTAL Financial services sector survey (7 May 214) 22

23 July 213 August 213 September 213 Universe Panel Completes Panel Completes Panel Completes Austria Czech Republic Germany Spain France Italy Luxembourg Netherlands Poland Sweden UK TOTAL October 213 November 213 December 213 Universe Panel Completes Panel Completes Panel Completes Austria Czech Republic Germany Spain France Italy Luxembourg Netherlands Poland Sweden UK TOTAL Financial services sector survey (7 May 214) 23

24 January 214 February 214 March 214 Universe Panel Completes Panel Completes Panel Completes Austria Czech Republic Germany Spain France Italy Luxembourg Netherlands Poland Sweden UK TOTAL Figure 7 : total number of completed interviews per country Austria Czech Republic Germany Spain France Italy Luxembourg Netherlands Poland Sweden UK total Financial services sector survey (7 May 214) 24

25 April 213 May 213 June 213 July 213 August 213 September 213 October 213 November 213 December 213 January 214 February 214 March 214 Table 6 and Figure give an overview of the response rate per country since April 213. It must be noted that response rates are also here influenced mainly by changes in the size of the panel (i.e. through cancellation of subscriptions) rather than the number of completed interviews. Poland, France and the UK have lowest response rates, as shown below, whilst the response rate of the Czech Republic was also rather low in Summer 213. All other countries have response rates of at least 5%. Differences between the months are sometimes high, but are mainly due to changes in the panel composition, rather than changes in the actual response as Figure 7 shows. Table 6 response rate per country Austria 64% 73% 66% 71% 71% 75% 76% 66% 72% 72% 73% 76% Czech Republic 7% 57% 49% 47% 46% 45% 56% 59% 64% 49% 6% 55% Germany 61% 56% 55% 54% 51% 62% 67% 66% 63% 6% 64% 6% Spain 6% 65% 61% 62% 57% 67% 77% 72% % 6% 71% 72% France 4% 46% 44% 39% 32% 42% 56% 42% 41% 45% 42% 33% Italy 6% 6% 6% 59% 63% 69% 77% 67% 64% 67% 61% 63% Luxembourg 6% 49% 57% 54% 52% 71% 71% 55% 56% 56% 52% 51% Netherlands 57% 54% 5% 56% 4% 59% 71% 63% 63% 6% 56% 66% Poland 42% 51% 4% 42% 4% 44% 49% 46% 5% 5% 45% 42% Sweden 63% 65% 57% 63% 5% 77% 75% 5% 77% 72% 74% 67% UK 5% 41% 3% 36% 43% 41% 4% 5% 46% 47% 46% 49% TOTAL 57% 55% 53% 52% 5% 5% 65% 5% 6% 59% 5% 5% Financial services sector survey (7 May 214) 25

26 Figure : response rate per country % 9% % 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% % % Austria Czech Republic Germany Spain France Italy Luxembourg Netherlands Poland Sweden UK TOTAL Ensuring and maintaining high response Response rates show that the main challenge of this survey is to keep respondents motivation high in order to guarantee a sufficient response on a monthly basis. In this respect, GfK Belgium PS has taken some initiatives to maintain the motivation for a high response rate. Online hotline As mentioned previously, an online hotline is set up to answer all queries from panel members. All questions are personally answered within a timeframe of 24 hours. Although the number of questions or issues brought up by panel members is limited, the personal approach is evaluated very positively by the panel members. Reminders Experience from year 1 showed that the most efficient method to encourage and sustain high response rates is to send a reminder. However, the effectiveness of this method is limited to one reminder. The effect of sending out a second reminder in one wave is almost negligible. Second reminders have been limited to those waves where a limited number of extra interviews were needed. Due to the increase in panel size in Year 3, only 1% of interviews across the whole year were achieved after a second reminder was needed. Financial services sector survey (7 May 214) 26

27 Figure 9: Response on survey (average% April 213 March 214) % 9% % 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% % % no reminder 1 reminder 2 reminders Quarterly benchmarking reports On a quarterly basis, panel members can download from the website a benchmarking report for their specific subsector. In the period April 213- March 214, 4 such reports were published: June 213, October 213, December 213 and March 214. All the reports follow the same structure: Introduction page Overall business climate perception in the EU Sectorial business climate perception in the EU Overview of results for the financial sector survey results, split by subsector (NACE 64, 65, and 66) Information on other interesting studies Detailed information on the results per subsector (question by question results) General information The benchmarking reports are considered as an important incentive for the panel members. The publication of the reports is announced by . The reports themselves can be downloaded from the restricted section of the financial services sector survey website (see below). Financial Services Sector Survey Website A website dedicated to the study was developed ( offering additional information, news and updates on the developments in the financial services sector. This website is only accessible for panel members. It is also on this website that the sector benchmarking reports are published. Financial services sector survey (7 May 214) 27

28 Figure gives an overview of the number of unique visitors to the website. The figure clearly shows a peak in the number of visitors at the beginning of every month, and also smaller peaks when the survey reminder is sent out. Figure : number of unique visits per day unique visitors More than half of the website visitors are returning visitors (see Figure 11). This is not completely surprising since most of the website is accessible only to panel members. The average duration of the visit is still low, in spite of increased efforts in animating and upgrading the content of the website. The target public of this website is a high profile group, which is difficult to reach and then maintain. A clear increase in visitor numbers can be noted when benchmarking reports are announced and published, indicating that this type of information is valued by panel members. Financial services sector survey (7 May 214) 2

29 Figure 11: type of visitors Returning visitors New visitors Quality assessment Defining the quality of a panel survey of this type is difficult. Usual quality checks look for straight liners (e.g. totally agree for each item on a 15 items grid) or speedsters (below half of the average questionnaire completion duration). These quality checks are of limited use in this survey, given the fact that the average duration time is already very limited and that genuine answers may look like straight liners because of the low number of items in this survey. GfK Belgium PS uses 3 indicators in order to assess the quality of the survey: the loyalty of panel members, the reactivity of panel members and a comparison of the results to external data. Loyalty Between April 213 and March 214, the financial services sector survey counted a total of 1492 panel members that actively participated or at least started once the survey. 42% of those panel members participated only once. 37% participated in at least 6 months, of which 15% participated in all 12 months. Still 24% of the current active members are panel members recruited at the start of the project in April 211. The breakdown of current active panelists according to their recruitment wave is shown in the figure below Financial services sector survey (7 May 214) 29

30 Figure 12: active current panelists by recruitment wave 4, 3 35, 3, 25, 24 2, 15,, ,, April 211 October 211 April 212 October 212 April 213 October 213 Reactivity 7% of the respondents react to a first invitation to participate in the survey. The percentage varies from month to month, varying from just 57% in April 213 up to 76% in November 213. A first reminder is sent out every month as a standard, one week after the first invitation. Second reminders are only sent out in cases where response is low for a certain month. The first and second reminders are sent to all panel members with the exception of those who already completed the survey. The response on a second reminder is however not very high. Moreover, it is important to note that sending out a second reminder puts extra pressure on your panel. This may trigger some panel members to decide to unsubscribe from the panel, because they experience it as being spammed. Therefore, a second reminder was only sent out in April and August 213. Financial services sector survey (7 May 214) 3

31 Figure 13: Response on survey after reminders % 9% % 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% % % no reminder 1 reminder 2 reminders total nr of completed surveys Geographical spread of the responses One of the main objectives of the survey is to obtain EU and EA aggregated data. The financial services sector is unequally divided between the European countries. However, to get as correct a view as possible on the EU/EA business confidence in the financial sector a good regional spread of the responses is necessary. Ideally the geographical spread of responses is equally divided over the 11 countries. In practice, this seems, however, not possible. Some countries appear to be more difficult to reach, such as France, Luxembourg, Poland and Czech Republic. This is partly due to cultural differences (e.g. in France), or due to the fact that the universe of targeted companies is rather small (e.g. in Luxembourg). In practice, GfK Belgium PS strives to receive a minimum of 2 responses for the smallest countries and 3 for the other countries. A minimum of 3 responses should, following normal business survey standards, be sufficient to get a decent result at country level. Following discussions in January 213 with DG ECFIN and in view of publishing country results for the 5 largest countries, GfK Belgium PS used the recruitment wave of April 213 to increase the number of panel members in these countries in order to reach a minimum of 5 responses per month. This was also supplemented by a continuing focus on these five countries in the October 213 recruitment wave. During each wave of the survey, the progress in each country is monitored on a daily basis. This allows us to, if necessary, target specific countries more precisely in sending out reminder s. An overview of the monthly number of completed interviews at country level can be found in Section 2.5.4, Appendix 2: Completed questionnaires per country per subsector and Appendix 3: Completed questionnaires per country per size. As discussed in section the number of completed interviews per country is relatively stable over the different months and the minimum number is reached for all countries. Figure 14 plots the Financial services sector survey (7 May 214) 31

32 confidence index 5 results of the 5 largest countries in the survey and of the EU results since April 211. The graph shows that fluctuations in scores can vary strongly from month to month, but this variation is not specific for countries with lower sample size, but also for those with higher sample sizes. Figure 14 : survey results (confidence index -%balance) for the 5 largest countries EU Germany - Spain -2 France -3 Italy -4 United Kingdom -5 5 Confidence index is calculated : (Q1+Q2+Q3)/3 Financial services sector survey (7 May 214) 32

33 2.6 Weighting and Calculation of Aggregates Size Weights Following the recommendations described in the User Guide of the BCS programme, individual respondent results are weighted, reflecting the probability of the selection of units in the different strata. Given the fact that the sample is constructed as a two-level stratified random sample, weighting coefficients are calculated for each firm based on the two strata: 1. Sector of Activity: the number of companies belonging to subsector 64, 65, and 66 of NACE rev Size of company: this is based on the number of employees. Companies are divided into three groups small size (-49); medium size (5-25); and large size (25+). The weighting scheme aims at improving the comparability of the survey responses and reference series rather than focusing on the predisposition larger companies are better at predicting future business tendencies Aggregation In accordance with the instructions of the BCS programme, EU and euro area aggregate replies to the questionnaires are calculated as weighted averages for the country-aggregate replies. The Gross Value Added (GVA) in the financial sector is used as the basis for calculating EU and Eurozone aggregates, and is smoothed by calculating a two-year moving average. The size and subsector of companies are taken into account in the calculation of the EU, Eurozone and subsector aggregates. Up till January 213 calculations were based on the data of 24-25, since these were the most recent data available on Eurostat website for all countries included in the survey. Since January 213 the data have been updated on the Eurostat website, allowing the use of 2-11 data. The data of the GVA in the total financial sector are used and not the data per sector, since these last are not available for all countries. A reweighting of all data since April 211 was performed and the new data were provided to DG ECFIN in January Table 7 gives an overview of the figures of the GVA in the financial sector, used for the calculation of the weights 7. 6 It must be noted that although we mention size weights and aggregation as two separate weightings, in practice, these are combined. GfK Belgium PS uses quantum software to calculate weighting factors. 7 Source : Financial services sector survey (7 May 214) 33

34 Table 7: GVA in the financial sector (million ) EU Eurozone European Union ,5,% Euro area 375.1,3,% Czech Republic 4.674,9,7% Germany , 21,21% 3,53% Spain ,3,29% 11,94% France ,4 13,49% 19,41% Italy 7.463,7 14,54% 2,92% Luxembourg 7.947,9 1,47% 2,12% Netherlands 41.26,5 7,6%,94% Austria ,6 2,% 4,14% Poland , 2,17% Sweden ,7 2,51% United Kingdom , 24,99% Financial services sector survey (7 May 214) 34

35 3 Survey results 3.1 Monthly Survey Results Business situation The evaluation of the development of the business situation at EU level is relatively stable. There is a dip in May 213, but a recovery in June, followed by a steady increase from August to October 213. Results are relatively stable until February 214, but there is then a 4-point decrease in March 214. However, scores have remained positive throughout the entire 12-month period The results for the euro area largely follow a similar trend, though the main difference is that the euro area experiences a sharp rise in January 214, followed by a rather large decrease over the next two months. Euro area scores are below in April and May 213, but are positive since then. At subsector level, NACE 64 follows a similar trend as at total EU level. NACE 65 experiences a sharp peak in January 214 due to a rise in the number of positive scores given. Conversely, NACE 66 has a sharp dip in the same month, and January 214 is the only month where NACE 66 has a negative overall score.

36 Figure 15 EU - Total Q1 - How has your business situation developed over the past 3 months? % 62% 65% 2 62% 63% 65% 66% % 24% 19% 21% 23% 15% 17% 14% 13% 14% 11% % 6% 12 56% 29% 27% 26% 31% 54% 15 15% 13% 14% 15% 61% 14 62% 26% 24% 13% 14% = - +/- -4 Figure 16 EA - Total Q1 - How has your business situation developed over the past 3 months? % 64% -1 7% -6 67% 67% % 69% 9 17% 19% 1% 2% 22% 21% 2% 22% 19% 1% 16% 17% 1% 12% 14% 13% 15% 15% 14% 16% 11% 11% 61% % 64% 5 3% 56% 15 67% 65% = - +/- -4 Financial services sector survey (7 May 214) 36

37 Figure 17 EU - Sector 64 Q1 - How has your business situation developed over the past 3 months? % 66% 7 63% 61% 12 66% 67% % 62% 15 57% 56% % 62% % 17% 14% 17% 24% 25% 21% 14% 14% 13% 23% % 31% 12% 29% 26% 33% 2% % 12% 11% % 25% 14% = - +/- -4 Figure 1 EU - Sector 65 Q1 - How has your business situation developed over the past 3 months? % 6% 67% 5% % 1% 16% 16% 16% 17% 1% 17% 13% 13% 11% 9% 73% 69% 5% 6% 5 51% % 22% 2% 21% 2% 2% 29 7% 66% 12 5% 4% 23% 19% % 11% 11% = - +/- -4 Financial services sector survey (7 May 214) 37

38 Figure 19 EU - Sector 66 Q1 - How has your business situation developed over the past 3 months? % 62% 5% 6% % 55% 57% 56% 9 54% % 26% 27% 2% 23% 23% 24% 23% 24% 2% 2% 1% 16% 16% 14% 14% 15% 16% 59% 56% 7 51% 3-3% 24% 24% 19% 21% 17% = - +/- -4 Financial services sector survey (7 May 214) 3

39 3.1.2 Demand The survey gauges the demand for the company s services via two questions. One question asks about the evolution in demand over the past 3 months. The second question examines the expectations of change in demand in the upcoming 3 months. Demand over the past 3 months Figures 2 to 24 show the results of the evolution of demand in the financial services sector over the past 3 months. At EU-level, an uptake in demand can be noted from August to October 213, but this has since decreased since December 213, so that results are now at a similar level as in April 213. The results for the euro area-level are negative in May and June 213, then positive for the majority of the year, before a decline since December 213 puts the current euro-area score at -1. A similar pattern to the EU-level total is also reflected at NACE 64 level. Subsector 65 fluctuates rather heavily, whilst NACE 66 is stable from April to December 213, before falling sharply in January 214 and then recovering in the two months since. Demand in the next 3 months Figures 25 to 29 give an overview of the results of the question on the expectations of change in demand for the next 3 months. Expectation of demand at EU-level declines from April to July 213, then rises in August and September. This is followed by a steady decline in November and December 213, and then more stable results since then, to have a current score of +14. Euro area results follow a similar pattern. The rise in score in August and September 213 is particularly driven by a rise in these two months in NACE 64 and 66 score. NACE 65 is notable in declining sharply from September to December 213, and then rising in the following three months. Financial services sector survey (7 May 214) 39