Asian Property Development

Transcription

1 Asian Property Development 17 March 2008

2 House Registration Numbers in Bangkok Metropolitan Area (BMA) 180, , , , , , , , ,000 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10, ,419176, , , , , ,001 78,096 67,054 69,050 72,072 56,085 29,029 33,074 33,980 37, New registered residential units O w ner built D eveloper built Jan - Dec 2005 Jan - Dec 2006 Growth (% ) Total 72,072 78, % Owner-Built 25,244 28, % Developer-built 46,828 49, % Source: Real Estate Information Center (REIC), Government Housing Bank 1

3 New Registered Residential Units (BMA) during Jan Nov 2007 Jan - Nov 2006 Jan - Nov 2007 Growth (%) Total 72,703 68, % Owner-Built 26,933 23, % Developer-built 45,770 44, % Jan - Nov 2006 Jan - Nov 2007 Growth (%) Single Detached Houses 40,039 36, % Owner-Built 24,162 20, % Developer-built 15,877 15, % Jan - Nov 2006 Jan - Nov 2007 Growth (%) Townhouses & Shophouses 16,821 17, % Owner-Built 2,771 2, % Developer-built 14,050 14, % Jan - Nov 2006 Jan - Nov 2007 Growth (%) Condominiums 15,843 14, % Owner-Built Developer-built 15,843 14, % Source: Real Estate Information Center 2

4 Mortgage Situation Slowly Expand MORTGAGE YEAR NEW LOAN %CHANGE OUTSTANDING %CHANGE LOAN(MB) , % 1,032, , % 1,215, % , % 1,346, % , % 1,479, % Source: Bank of Thailand 3

5 Current Market Situation Overall Market Depend on Country s Economy GDP Growth / Unemployment Rate Strong Urbanization Trend Highly Dynamic Market Rapid Change in Consumer Preference of Product / Location Supply Adjustment No Good or Bad Segment only Good or Bad Project Based on Mixture of Location/Product/Price/Competitive Environment Industry Consolidation - Franchise Reputation / Financial Advantage (Pre/Post) / Economy of Scale Intense Competition mainly from Large Companies Standard Gross Margin / High SG&A Low Possibility of Industry Collapse Low Gearing Medium to Long Term Shortage of Production Capacity Human Resource Source: Asian Property Development 4

6 Indicators of Property Market

7 Property Demand Relies on Economy (GDP) 60.0% 40.0% 20.0% 0.0% -20.0% -40.0% 13.3% 15.0% 12.3% 11.2% 50.84% 9.5% 8.1% 27.85% 8.3% 9.0% 9.2% 10.0% 26.75% 18.65% 8.6% 24.15% 5.9% 6.3% 13.93% 23.12% 26.42% 27.72% 5.3% 5.0% 0.68% 9.42% 6.1% 4.5% 5.0% 1.9% 4.4% 4.6% 4.38% 8.36% % % % 2.74% -1.4% % -5.0% -60.0% -10.5% % % -10.0% -80.0% Housing Registration (Growth) GDP Correlation: % Source: BOT, Real Estate Information Center, Asian Property Development 5

8 Unemployment Rate Factor to Watch 200, , , % 172, , , , % 6.0% 140, % 129, , % 120, ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20, % 102,320 80, % 67,451 53, % 2.8% 108, % 2.6% 1.7% 4.4% 4.2% 1.5% 1.5% 67, % 33,074 29, % 33, % 69,050 72,072 78, % 2.2% 56,0852.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.7% 37, % 1.0% Correlation: Housing Registration (Unit) Unemployment Rate 0.0% Source: BOT, GHB, Asian Property Development 6

9 No Impact on Property Market from Interest Rate Moves 60.0% 40.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 20.0% 0.0% -20.0% % 0.0% -10.0% -40.0% -20.0% -60.0% -30.0% -80.0% -40.0% Housing Registration (Growth) Interest Rate (%change) Correlation: Source: BOT, Real Estate Information Center, Asian Property Development 7

10 Consumer confidence vs. Interest Rate Consumer confidence vs. Interest rate in Jan 05-Dec Source: UTCC, BOT, Asian Property Development 8.50% 8.00% 7.50% 7.00% 6.50% 6.00% 5.50% 5.00% 8 Jan-0 5 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug -05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-0 6 Jul-06 Aug -06 Sep-06 Oct-06 Nov-06 Dec-06 Jan-07 Feb-07 Mar-07 Apr-07 May-07 Jun-07 Jul-07 Aug -07 Sep-07 Oct-07 Nov-07 Dec-07 Condumer confidence Interest Rate (MLR)

11 Strong Urbanization Trend

12 Catalyst for Urbanization: (1) Rising oil prices cause high transportation cost Year Oil price Transportation cost (Ba ht/litre ) a s % of incom e % % > 20% ? Source: Energy Policy&Planning Office, Kasikorn Research, AP 9

13 Catalyst for Urbanization : (2) Supportive Demographics from Large Young Generation % 60+ 9% % Age Band Potential home buyers Current target group % Source: National Statistics Office, Department of Provincial Administration 10

14 Catalyst for Urbanization : (2) Supportive Demographics from Large Young Generation ชาย / Male ป ข นไป ป ป ป ป ป ป ป ป ป ป ป ป ป ป 5-9 ป 0-4 ป หญ ง / Female ท มา: กรมการปกครอง กระทรวงมหาดไทย 11

15 Catalyst for Urbanization : (3) Mass Transit BTS (Sky Train) : operated since 1999 MRT (Subway) : operated since 2004 Source: Bangkok Mass Transit System Plc., Mass Rapid Transit Authority of Thailand 12

16 Supply Adjustment (Low Rise)

17 Housing Launches (by AREA) YEAR/TYPE TOTAL SDH TH DUPLEX CONDO % 52.60% 40.92% 30.51% % % % -0.09% 43.05% 15.90% % % 8.71% -6.79% 15.04% % % 0.20% 88.40% 52.90% Source: Agency for Real Estate Affairs, AP 13

18 Consolidation and Oversupplies of High-end SDH since year 2003 until now M07 Financing : Capital increase MB 11,508 8,917 5,913* 2,050 1,114 New property development credit MB N/A 46,146 28,587 29,404 22,303 Outstanding property development credit MB 150, , , , ,398 Supply Outlook : Inventory growth % 24.9% 34.7% 7.7% 2.5% 7.9% Land subdivision permit (Bangkok and Greater Bangkok) % 108.9% -14.7% 12.5% 9.8% 3.5% Construction permit (Growth) % Low rise 48.2% 30.9% -26.8% -6.2% -12.4% High rise 72.4% 140.1% -7.2% 87.9% -34.3% Dominant Players : Market share of listed company % 52% 43% 48% 45% 57% *PS and Prin has been listed in SET. Source: Bank of Thailand, Real Estate Information Center, AP 14

19 Units and Portion of Unsold Products DUPLEX, 8,473, 8% CONDO, 29,677, 27% SDH, 37,531, 35% OTHERS, 2,851, 3% TH, 27,475, 25% SH, 2,667, 2% Source: Agency for Real Estate Affairs, AP 15

20 % of Unsold Unit in Each Product Type 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 44% 34% 33% 34% 19% SDH TH CONDO DUPLEX SH Source: Agency for Real Estate Affairs, AP 16

21 Land Allocation Land Allocation - Total Year/ SDH TH Duplex Total Quarter % % % % % 27.17% 0.14% 12.54% % 14.54% 71.55% 9.78% % % 0.54% % Land Allocation - Bangkok Year/ SDH TH Duplex Total Quarter % 5.29% 30.11% 13.83% % 56.26% % 15.89% % -0.05% % 1.57% % % 1.83% % Land Allocation - Greater Bangkok Year/ SDH TH Duplex Total Quarter % % % % % 14.64% 25.44% 10.43% % 23.10% 46.78% 15.22% % -6.63% 0.00% -7.14% Source: Real Estate Information Center, AP 17

22 Construction Permit (Low Rise) BMA Year No. of Building Sq.m % 55.7% % 23.5% % 47.2% % 48.2% % 30.9% % -26.8% % -6.2% 9M % % Bangkok Year No. of Building Sq.m. Metro Year No. of Building Sq.m % 48.3% % 21.0% % 38.8% % 44.5% % 19.4% % -15.9% % -16.2% 9M % -24.6% % 65.7% % 26.5% % 57.0% % 52.1% % 42.0% % -35.8% % 4.5% 9M % -0.7% Source: Real Estate Information Center, AP 18

23 Supply Adjustment (High Rise)

24 AP s Definition of Condo 1. SUPER HIGH END Large size (over 150 sq.m./unit) / CBD / Mass Transit (BTS, MRT) / Over Bt15m/unit 2. HIGH END Smaller size (40-60 sq.m./unit) / CBD / Mass Transit / Bt3-6m/unit AP s Focus 3. MID END Smaller size (30-40 sq.m./unit) / Good Location / Mass Transit / Bt2-3m/unit AP s Focus 4. MID-TO-LOW END Small Project and Normally Smaller size (30 sq.m./unit) / Not walking distance to Mass Transit or Future mass transit / Mainly Bt1-2m/unit (Some Bt 2-3m/unit) 5. LOW END Smallest size (30 sq.m./unit) / Poor Location / No Mass Transit / Thousands Number of Unit per Project / Below Bt1m/unit Source: Asian Property Development 19

25 Segment of Condo Launched in 2007 (BY AREA) % % >10 1% <1 22% % % < >10 9,918 17,930 8,014 6,166 2, Source: Agency for Real Estate Affairs, AP 20

26 Construction Permit (High Rise) BMA Year No. of Building Sq.m % 190.7% % 72.4% % 140.1% % -7.2% % 87.9% 9M % -34.4% Bangkok Metro Year No. of Building Sq.m. Year No. of Building Sq.m % 252.9% % 67.4% % 196.8% % -34.9% % 138.8% 9M % -51.4% % 105.1% % 84.7% % 11.5% % 159.9% % 10.9% 9M % 28.5% Source: Real Estate Information Center, AP 21

27 Industry Consolidation

28 Market Share of New Launched Projects Market Share 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 41% 54% 55% 66% 81% 59% 46% 45% 34% 19% Year Listed Companies Non-listed Companies Source: Agency for Real Estate Affairs, AP 22

29 Market Share of Major Players Booking in 1 Half of Listed Companies * = 59.00% Revenue of Top Eight Listed Companies ** = 81.47% Rough Estimate of Top Eight Market Share = 48.07% Source: *AREA,**SET Report, AP 23

30 Effect of Franchise Name Effectiveness of Advertising Expenses 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Ad. Portion of 8 Major Companies Market Share of Listed Companies % 28% 35% 35% 36% 19% 34% 46% 45% 59% Ad. Portion of 8 Major Companies Market Share of Listed Companies Source: AC Neilson, AP 24

31 Financial Advantage of Major Developers DEVELOPER LOAN YEAR NEW LOAN %CHANGE OUTSTANDING %CHANGE LOAN (M B) , , , % 194, % , % 183, % , % 178, % DEBENTURE YEAR NEW LOAN %CHANG E , , % Source: Bank of Thailand 25

32 High % of SG&A Economy of Scale Company SG&A as a percentage of revenue Q07 2Q07 3Q AP 11% 13% 15% 16% 18% 15% 15% AREEYA 18% 27% 28% 44% 39%* 41%* 41% GOLD 21% 32% 17% 15% 24%* 19% 23% LALIN 12% 10% 13% 22% 22%* 22%* 22% LH 6% 6% 13% 15% 13% 11% 13% LPN 13% 13% 12% 13% 12% 9% 11% MK 18% 15% 16% 19% 16% 18% 16% NCH 20% 25% 25% 31% 37%* 27%* 30% NOBLE 24% 17% 20% 33% 23%* 16% 20% PERFECT 20% 21% 24% 24% 25%* 17% 21% PRIN n/a 11% 12% 21% 15% 18% 18% PS n/a 12% 13% 15% 16% 20%* 17% QH 20% 17% 17% 15% 16% 17% 16% SAMCO 23% 21% 25% 26% 28%* 23%* 24% SC 13% 19% 18% 13% 17% 14% 16% SIRI 20% 17% 21% 24% 24%* 23%* 22% SUPALAI 22% 15% 13% 13% 13% 16% 15% Source: Asian Property Development 26

33 Low Possibility of Industry Collapse (Low Gearing)

34 Debt to Equity Ratio Company Debt to Equity as of Q07 2Q07 3Q AP AREEYA GOLD LALIN LH LPN MK NCH NOBLE PF PRIN n/a PS n/a QH SAMCO SC SIRI SUPALAI Source: Asian Property Development 27

35 DEMAND ESTIMATION

36 Housing Demand per Year in Bangkok Metropolitan Area (BMA) National Economic and Social Development (Government, issued 2002) 123,075 units/year - Low income 64,985 units - Medium to High income 58,090 units Kasikorn Research Center (Kasikorn Bank, issued 2004) 92,700 units/year - Low income 40,000 units - Medium to High income 52,700 units Fiscal Policy Research Institute Foundation (Government Agency, issued 2004) - Total Demand 113, ,000 units/year - Development Built 71,000 81,000 units Source: Asian Property Development 28

37 Company Overview

38 Shareholding Structure Management 36% Khun Anuphong Assavabhokin 24% Khun Pichet Vipavasuphakorn 12% Others (free float) 64% Source: Asian Property Development 29

39 Board of Directors : Majority Independent Directors Management 3 directors Khun Anuphong Assavabhokin Khun Pichet Vipavasuphakorn Khun Jaroonsak Buntoonginda Related companies 3 directors Khun Chaiyarat Thampeera - Pre-Built Khun Vilas Pilakasiri - Pre-Built Khun Payont Sakdejyont - Q-CON Independent directors 7 directors Khun Pong Sarasin Khun Chatchaval Bhanalaph Dr. Naris Chaiyasoot Khun Siripong Sombutsiri Khun Shaw Sinhaseni Khun Kosol Suriyaporn Khun Nontachit Tulayanonda Source: Asian Property Development 30

40 AP s Business Structure : Moving to Services AP Group Asian Property Development and subsidiaries (Property Development) Citismart Service Co., Ltd,. (Customer Service and Property Management) Bangkok CitiSmart Co., Ltd. (Property Broker) Source: Asian Property Development 31

41 AP Projects Update

42 Product Strategy : Capture Urbanization SDH 5-10% Condo 40-50% TH 50-55% Source: Asian Property Development Plc. 32

43 Sales & Backlog (Million Baht) Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Jan -29 Feb 2008 Beginning backlog 4,940 5,087 4,954 6,084 4,940 6,781 8,913 12,993 15,541 6,781 14,671 Sales booking 1,693 1,490 2,142 2,747 8,072 3,541 5,468 4,657 2,009 15,675 1,439 Income recognition (1,546) (1,623) (1,012) (2,050) (6,231) (1,410) (1,388) (2,109) (2,879) (7,786) 0 Ending backlog 5,087 4,954 6,084 6,781 6,781 8,913 12,993 15,541 14,671 14,671 16,110 - from townhouses and single detached houses 2,255 1,403 1,749 1,377 1,377 1,449 1,443 1,728 1,685 1,685 2,810 - from condominium 2,832 3,551 4,335 5,405 5,405 7,463 11,550 13,813 12,986 12,986 13,300 * Backlog means we have already sold but not yet recognized income. Source: Asian Property Development Plc. 33

44 Ongoing Projects (as of Feb 29, 2008) Project value (Btm) Completion (last unit transferred) % sold (in unit) (as of 29 Feb 08) Available for sales (Btm) Type Rai No of units Launch year Place & Park SDH N/A The City (Rama 5 - Pinklao) SDH ,700 Q Q % 198 The City (Pinklao) SDH Q Q % 87 The City (Pinklao) Phase II SDH ,100 Q Q % 965 Baan Klang Muang (British Town Srinakarin) TH ,700 Q Q % 103 Baan Klang Krung (Siam - Patumwan) Condo ,900 Q Q % 0 Baan Klang Krung (Grande Vienna Rama III) SDH Q Q % 167 Baan Klang Muang (Luzern On-nut 46) TH ,050 Q Q % 302 Baan Klang Muang (Monte-carlo Ratchavibha) TH ,340 Q Q % 0 The Address Siam Condo ,240 Q Q % 39 Baan Klang Krung (The Nice Ratchavibha) SDH Q Q % 308 BTS Tapra Condo ,300 Q Q % 184 Baan Klang Krung (The Royal Vienna Ratchavibha) TH ,900 Q Q % 1,209 Baan Klang Muang (The Royal Monaco Srinakarin-Pattanakarn) TH ,200 Q Q % 342 Baan Klang Muang (Swiss Town Kaset Navamin) TH ,300 Q Q % 203 Baan Klang Muang (The Paris Rama 9-Ramkhamhaeng) TH Q Q % 169 The Address Sukhumvit 42 Condo Q Q % 15 Ratchada Condo ,042 Q Q % 9 The Address Chidlom Condo ,000 Q Q % 809 Sathorn 10 Condo ,000 Q Q % 10 Paholyothin-Aree Condo Q Q % 0 Ratchada-Suthisan Condo ,200 Q Q % 17 Paholyothin 18 Condo Q Q % 0 Sukhumvit 65 Condo ,500 Q Q % 28 Ratchada-Huay Kwang Condo ,200 Q Q % 52 Baan Klang Muang Urbanion (Rama9-Wongwan) TH Q Q % 194 Baan Klang Muang Urbanion (Ladprao-Chokchai 4) TH Q Q % 260 SDH = Single Detached Houses, TH = Townhouses 5,671 Source: Asian Property Development Plc. 34

45 Future Projects to be launched Project value (Btm) Completion (last unit transferred) Type Rai No of units Land acquisition Launch year Sukhumvit 67 Condo Q Q Q MRT Ratchada * Condo ,200 Q Q Q Ratchada-Huay Kwang II Condo ,650 Q Q Q Baan Klang Muang (BTS Taksin) TH Q Q Q The City (Rattanatibet) SDH ,200 Q Q Q Baan Klang Muang (Sukhumvit 113) TH Q Q Q The City (Sukhumvit 113) SDH Q Q Q Condo SriAyuthaya Condo Q Q Q The Address Sathorn 12 * Condo ,400 Q Q Q Baan Klang Muang (Ladprao 71(4)) TH Q Q Q Office Park Srinakarin TH Q Q Q Baan Klang Muang (Srinakarin) TH ,500 Q Q Q Baan Klang Muang (Latpraklao) TH Q Q Q Total planned-to-be-launched projects ,250.0 * joint venture with Pacific Star Note: 1 rai = 0.4 acre = 0.16 hectare = 400 sq.w. = 1,600 sq.m., 1 sq.feet = 0.09 sq.m., 1 sq.m. = sq. feet SDH = Single Detached Houses, TH = Townhouses Source: Asian Property Development Plc. 35

46 % Estimated Transferred Condo (million Baht) % Estimated transferred Estimated Project Total % unit last unit Existing Condo of AP value units sold * 2007F 2008F 2009F 2010F 2011F transferred Baan Klang Krung (Siam - Patumwan) 2, % 80% 10% Q The Address Siam 1, % 100% Q BTS Tapra 1, % 80% 20% Q The Address Sukhumvit % 60% 40% Q Ratchada - Ladprao 36 1, % 60% 40% Q The Address Chidlom 3, % 70% 30% Q Sathorn Soi 10 1, % 90% 10% Q Paholyothin-Aree % 60% 40% Q Suthisan 1, % 60% 40% Q Paholyothin % 30% 70% Q Sukhumvit 65 1, % 50% 50% Q Ratchada - Huay Kwang 1, % 100% Q Ratchada - Huay Kwang II 1, % Q Sukhumvit % 10% Q Condo SriAyuthaya % 90% Q The Address Sathorn 12 ** 3, % 40% Q MRT Ratchada ** 3, % Q ,562 * % sold as of Feb 29, 2008 ** Joint venture with Pacific Star How do we manage any potential risk for condo projects? Reducing the financial risk, we finance each new condo project by cash inflow from prior condo projects. Reducing the operational risk, we monitor the number of unit sold reaching the confident level before acquiring new plots of land for new condo development. Source: Asian Property Development Plc. 36

47 Financial Summary Revenues from Property Development (Btm) 7,785 6,344 4,490 4,793 4,312 2,408 1,052 YoY Chg (%) 22.7% 41.3% -6.3% 11.2% 79.0% 128.9% 120.1% Consolidated Revenues (Btm) 7,825 6,344 5,258 5,740 4,757 2,701 1,281 YoY Chg (%) 23.3% 20.7% -8.4% 20.7% 76.1% 110.8% 88.6% QoQ Chg (%) Gross profit from Property Development (Btm) 2,537 1,996 1,551 1,821 1, Gross margin from Property (%) 32.6% 31.5% 34.5% 38.0% 38.8% 37.3% 37.4% Overall Gross profit (Btm) 2,577 1,996 1,683 2,004 1, Gross margin (%) 32.9% 31.5% 32.0% 34.9% 37.2% 36.8% 34.1% Operating profit (Btm) 1,389 1, ,369 1, Operating margin (%) 17.8% 16.4% 18.6% 23.9% 30.3% 27.6% 22.0% Net profit from normal operations (Btm) ,010 1, YoY Chg (%) 13.2% 23.2% -36.2% -15.2% 73.6% 161.9% 331.3% Net profit (Btm) 899 1, ,097 1, YoY Chg (%) -33.1% 75.7% -30.3% -7.9% 73.2% 160.0% 334.3% QoQ Chg (%) EPS (Bt) Total assets (Btm) 13,145 10,418 10,291 9,247 6,620 3,586 2,198 Equity (Btm) 5,513 5,048 3,983 4,266 3,325 1, Outstanding debt (Btm) 5,509 4,031 5,303 4,030 2,471 1,464 1,058 Net debt (Btm) 4,787 3,124 4,787 3,322 1,507 1, Net debt to equity (x) ROE (%) (average equity) 17.0% 29.8% 18.5% 28.9% 47.4% 52.2% 34.8% Source: Asian Property Development Plc. 37

48 THANK YOU