The Deposit Dilemma Trends, Challenges, and Responses. Ron Adams Laura Greene Don Lambert

Transcription

1 The Deposit Dilemma Trends, Challenges, and Responses Ron Adams Laura Greene Don Lambert

2 Part I: Trends

3 First District trails in deposits Deposits as Percent of Assets 85% 80% 75% 70% 65% 60% Source: FDIC Merger Adjusted Call Report Data 1st District Community National Community 1st District Regional National Regional 3

4 4

5 Commercial banks held steady with jumbo CDs compensating for deposits lost elsewhere 70% 60% Liability as Percent of Assets 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Total Deposits Small Time & Savings Deposits Checkable Deposits Large Time Deposits Source: Flow of Funds Data, 5

6 Total deposits at savings institutions fell by 8% since % 70% Liability as Percent of Assets 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Total Deposits Small Time & Savings Deposits Checkable Deposits Large Time Deposits Source: Flow of Funds Data, 6

7 100% 90% Credit unions also fell but by a smaller margin Liability as Percent of Assets 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Total Deposits Small Time & Savings Deposits Checkable Deposits Large Time Deposits Source: Flow of Funds Data, 7

8 Part II: Challenges Consumer behavior Direct banks Demographics Local competition 8

9 Households are borrowing more Household Debt Service as Percent of Disposible Income Source:

10 Saving less Personal Savings Rate as Percent of Disposable Income Source: National Income and Product Account Tables - Bureau of Economic Analysis (

11 And using fewer checks for their purchases Source: Visa USA Research Services Visa Payment Panel Study 11

12 Part II: Challenges Consumer behavior Direct banks Demographics Local competition 12

13 Direct banks have become a major player in deposit markets Source: First Manhattan Consulting Group,

14 ING Direct took an early lead Deposits (billions) Source: FDIC Call Report Data

15 Other large banks are now following 12 Deposits (billions) Source: SEC 10k Reports Citi Direct HSBC Direct 15

16 Their success has attracted nonbanks 30 Deposits (billions) Source: FDIC Call Report Data State Farm Met Life E*Trade 16

17 Consumer lenders have also taken note 60 Deposits (billions) Source: FDIC Call Report Data Countrywide GMAC 17

18 Part II: Challenges Consumer behavior Direct banks Demographics Local competition 18

19 New England s population growth is below average Connecticut Maine Massachusetts New Hampshire Rhode Island Vermont United States Population Change (%) Projected Population Change (%) Source: SNL DataSource: Based on 2000 Census Bureau data with Projections provided by ESRI 19

20 And above average loss of the most productive workers and savers % Change US CT ME MA NH RI VT Total Population: Age Group (%): Age Group (%): Age Group (%): Age Group (%): Source: SNL Datasource based on ESRI projections 20

21 Part II: Challenges Consumer behavior Direct banks Demographics Local competition 21

22 Banking in New England is highly competitive Return on Equity Source: FDIC Merger Adjusted Call Report Data st District Community National Community st District Regional National Regional

23 New England has some of the most concentrated banking markets in the country 2006 HHI Median Average 2006 HHI Rank New England Rhode Island Pacific New Hampshire South Atlantic Massachusetts Mountain Vermont National Connecticut Middle Atlantic Maine East South Central Source: SNL DataSource East North Central West South Central West North Central

24 The intensity of the competition reflected in the pricing of CDs Jumbo CDs CDs < $100, Jun-97 Jun-98 Jun-99 Jun-00 Jun-01 Jun-02 Jun-03 Jun-04 Jun-05 Jun Jun-97 Large Banks Community Banks New England Banks Jun-98 Jun-99 Jun-00 Jun-01 Jun-02 Jun-03 Jun-04 Jun-05 Jun-06 Large Banks Community Banks New England Banks Difference in CD rates between banks paying the most and those paying the least 24

25 Increasing competition in the wholesale market? Bidder Bid Bid Rate (Sep 2007) (Sep 2006) Citibank 1 NA 5.330% Sovereign Bank % Local Competitor % Bank of America 4 58 (out) 5.275% JP Morgan Chase % Source: 25

26 Part III: Responses Wholesale funding Branching Integrated approach 26

27 May-07 Rely on wholesale funding Sep-04 Nov-04 Jan-05 Mar-05 May-05 Jul-05 Sep-05 Nov-05 Jan-06 Mar-06 May-06 Jul-06 Sep-06 Nov-06 Jan-07 Mar-07 1st District Community 1st District Regional Noncore Funding as Percent of Assets

28 With a regional preference for the FHLB L iability as Percent of Assets First District Regional National Regional First District Community National Community CDs > $100 Thousand FHLB Borrowings Other B orrowings Brokered Deposits Source: FDIC Merger Adjusted Call Report Data 28

29 Part III: Responses Wholesale funding Branching Integrated approach 29

30 Build more branches Examined impact of: Net change in branches Deposit rates Changes in personal income Banking concentration New branch associated with a $63.2 million increase in deposits New branches come at a cost: average cost in 2006 was over $2.5 million 30

31 In better locations 30% Execution 23% Demographics - household income, household growth, population density Source: Hal Hopson and Stephen Rymers, % Location - local retail environment, small business demand, overall site visibility, brand strength of local competition 31

32 Part III: Responses Wholesale funding Branching Integrated approach 32

33 Integrate deposit gathering into the entire customer relationship IT Lending Centralized Relationship Coordination ALM Deposit Operations/ Cash Management 33

34 The Deposit Dilemma Dynamic 100% % 90% 85% 80% 75% 70% 65% 60% 55% 50% Deposits as Percent of Assets for Commercial Banks Source: 34

35 All Presentations are available online at:

36 Return on assets of various direct banks 6% STATE FARM BK FSB METLIFE BK NA E*Trade Bank COUNTRYWIDE BK FSB DISCOVER BK GMAC BK ING Direct Return on Assets 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% -10% Trends Challenges Solutions

37 ING direct loan growth and ROA Return on Assets 1% 0% -1% -2% -3% -4% -5% -6% % 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Loans to Assets 37

38 New verses existing money Citi Direct HSBC Direct Cannabilized, $2.0 Cannabilized, $1.0 New Money, $7.9 New Money, $5.0 38

39 Deposit growth 10% 10-Year Average Growth 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 2006 Growth Banks Thrifts Credit Unions Mutuals 39

40 Loan growth 12% 10-Year Average Growth 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 2006 Growth Banks Thrifts Credit Unions Mutuals 40

41 Asset growth 10% 9% 10-Year Average Growth 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 2006 Growth Banks Thrifts Credit Unions Mutuals Trends Challenges Solutions 41

42 Net income growth 16% 10-Year Average Growth 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 2006 Growth Banks Thrifts Credit Unions Mutuals 42

43 Annual growth in online banking customers Annual Growth in Online Banking Customers 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Source: comscore,

44 Sep-04 Nov-04 Jan-05 Mar-05 May-05 Jul-05 Sep-05 Nov-05 Jan-06 Mar-06 May-06 Jul-06 Sep-06 Nov-06 Jan-07 Mar-07 May-07 80% 75% 70% 65% 60% 55% 50% Core deposit as percent of assets First District Regional National Regional First District Community National Community 44 C ore Deposits as Percent of Assets

45 MMDA growth rates 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% Mutual Funds Commercial and Savings Banks 45