2018 ABA Commercial Real Estate Survey Report. July 2018

Transcription

1 2018 ABA Commercial Real Estate Survey Report July 2018

2 Table of Contents Acknowledgements Summary of Key Survey Findings Participant Profile....5 CRE Capital Concentrations.. 8 Market Characteristics Challenges in CRE Lending CRE Portfolio HVCRE

3 Acknowledgements The American Bankers Association extends its appreciation to the bankers who contributed essential information to the 2018 Commercial Real Estate Lending Survey. Their participation in this extensive study, despite already heavy reporting burdens, ensured the success of this research project. This year s survey was conducted from January to April, and 44 banks participated. Staff contributors: Bob Davis, Executive Vice President, American Bankers Association Rod Alba, Senior Vice President and Senior Regulatory Counsel, American Bankers Association Sharon Whitaker, Vice President, American Bankers Association Data processing and analysis provided by: Michael Mazur, Senior Manager, American Bankers Association Jae Jang, Research Associate, American Bankers Association 3

4 Summary of Key Findings The 2018 Commercial Real Estate Lending Survey had the participation of 44 banks. The data was collected from January to April of 2018, and in most cases report calendar year or year-end results. In other cases, data reflect current activities and expectations at the time of data collection. Of the survey participants, 84 percent of respondents were commercial banks and 16 percent were savings institutions. About 46 percent of the participating institutions had assets of less than $1 billion. This survey serves as an important resource for members as it provides an unbiased yearly snapshot of industry activity and bankers responses to market, regulatory, and other developments. Banks continue to be active in CRE lending, as evidenced by growing CRE concentration levels in construction; 23 percent of respondents have over 100 percent construction concentration and 14 percent have over 300 percent CRE concentration (p. 8-9) 79 percent of banks anticipate increasing their capital concentrations, with market conditions and/or demand' as the main driver for that increase (p ) Market characteristics remained stable as more than half reported that demand, liquidity, cap rates, and underwriting standards are all in line with levels seen in 2017; liquidity showed the greatest difference (p ) Competition from bank and non-bank lenders, as well as regulatory burden and requirements, were the three biggest challenges in CRE lending in 2017, which is consistent with 2015 (p. 15) Hospitality joins multifamily, office, and retail as the most active lending classes, making up approximately 73 percent of a banks CRE lending portfolio on an average basis (p. 18) 52.4 percent of originated CRE loans in 2017 have LTV ratios below 70 percent, up from 45.5 percent of loans in 2015 (p. 19) CRE non-owner occupied and owner occupied loans make up 72 percent of respondent banks commercial portfolios in 2017, about the same as 71 percent in 2015 (p. 20) 64 percent of banks surveyed currently have outstanding loans classified as HVCRE, up from 50 percent in Approximately onethird of respondents increased pricing to reflect the additional capital cost from the HVCRE classification (p ) 4

5 Participant Profile Bank Asset Sizes (2015) 4% 4% 4% 1% Up to $50 million $51-$100 million Bank Asset Sizes (2017) 2% 2% Up to $50 million $51-$100 million 12% $101-$200 million $ million 7% 7% 7% $101-$200 million $ million 31% 21% 1 13% $301-$500 million $501 million-$1 billion $1 billion-$10 billion $10 billion-$20 billion Over $20 billion 45% 16% 14% $301-$500 million $501 million-$1 billion $1 billion-$10 billion $10 billion-$20 billion Over $20 billion Primary Federal Regulator (2015) Primary Federal Regulator (2017) 32% 19% 49% OCC FDIC Federal Reserve 23% 23% OCC FDIC Federal Reserve 54% 5

6 Participant Profile Charter Type Ownership Type 16% 9% 84% 91% Savings Bank/Institution Commercial Bank Stock Mutual/MHC 6

7 Where is your bank headquartered? New England (Connecticut, Massachusetts, Maine, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, Vermont) Mid-Atlantic (D.C., Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Virginia) Middle Southeast (Kentucky, rth Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, West Virginia) Lower Southeast (Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Mississippi, Puerto Rico) Great Lakes (Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio, Wisconsin) South (Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, Texas) 2% 2% 7% 11% 18% 23% Plains (Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, rth Dakota, Nebraska, South Dakota) Mountain (Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Utah, Wyoming) 14% 14% Southwest (Arizona, California, Hawaii, New Mexico, Nevada) 9% rthwest (Alaska, Oregon, Washington) 7

8 CRE Capital Concentrations Construction, Land, Development, and Land (2015) Construction, Land, Development, and Land (2017) 19% 4% 23% 5% 35% 1 to 25% 26 to 5 34% 1 to 25% 26 to 5 19% 51 to 99% 51 to 99% 10 and over 25% 10 and over 23% 14% 8

9 CRE Capital Concentrations Multifamily, nfarm Residential Properties and Construction (2015) Multifamily, nfarm Residential Properties and Construction (2017) 9% 2% 14% 5% 26% 34% 1 to 99% 100 to 199% 23% 1 to 99% 100 to 199% 200 to 299% 200 to 299% 30 and over 39% 30 and over 2 29% 9

10 CRE Capital Concentrations Does your bank anticipate increasing your CRE as percentage of RBC in 2016? Does your bank anticipate increasing your CRE as a percentage of RBC in 2018? 18% 1% % Construction only Construction only CRE only CRE only Both Neither Both Neither 51% 61% 10

11 CRE Capital Concentrations What product areas does your bank anticipate increasing your CRE as a percentage of RBC in? Please mark all that apply.* (2015) What product areas does your bank anticipate increasing your CRE as a percentage of RBC in? Please mark all that apply.* (2017) Commercial construction 44% Commercial construction 42% CRE non-owner occupied 77% CRE non-owner occupied 76% CRE owner occupied 82% CRE owner occupied 82% Small business CRE lending 39% Small business CRE lending 45% CRE with SBA guarantee 34% CRE with SBA guarantee 32% Commercial Spec Development 8% 3% 8% *Numbers represent the percentage of respondents that select an answer 11

12 CRE Capital Concentrations If you plan to increase CRE / capital concentrations, what is the main driver for that increase? Please mark all that apply.* (2017) Market conditions and/or demand 68% Performance expectations 32% Strategic decision to diversify or change product mix 32% 3% *Numbers represent the percentage of respondents that select an answer 12

13 Market Characteristics Comparisons to One Year Ago Demand (2015) 1% Demand (2017) 5% 2% 13% 35% Much higher Somewhat higher 11% 27% Much higher Somewhat higher About the same About the same Somewhat lower Somewhat lower 52% Much lower 55% Much lower Cap Rates (2015) 3% 2% Cap Rates (2017) 2% 24% 57% 15% Much higher (>50 bps) Somewhat higher (25 to 50 bps) About the same (-25 to 25 bps) Somewhat lower (-25 to -25 bps) 14% 57% 27% Much higher (>50 bps) Somewhat higher (25 to 50 bps) About the same (-25 to 25 bps) Somewhat lower (-25 to -25 bps) 13

14 Market Characteristics Comparisons to One Year Ago Liquidity (2015) 2% 4% Liquidity (2017) 2% 7% 19% 29% Much more liquid Somewhat more liquid 3 7% Much more liquid Somewhat more liquid About the same liquidity About the same liquidity 46% Somewhat less liquid 55% Somewhat less liquid Underwriting Standards (2015) 2% Underwriting Standards (2017) 24% 18% Much tighter Somewhat tighter 18% 3 Much tighter Somewhat tighter About the same About the same Somewhat looser Somewhat looser Much looser Much looser 56% 52% 14

15 Biggest Challenges in CRE Lending Mark all that apply* (2015) Mark all that apply* (2017) Regulatory burden and requirements 18% Regulatory burden and requirements 19% Lack of borrower demand 6% Lack of borrower demand 7% Competition from bank lenders 34% Competition from bank lenders 34% Competition from non-bank lenders 16% Competition from non-bank lenders 15% Fewer credit-worthy projects 1 Fewer credit-worthy projects 9% Lack of qualified borrowers 7% Lack of qualified borrowers 5% Appraisal challenges 8% Appraisal challenges 7% 1% 3% *Numbers represent the percentage of respondents that select an answer 15

16 Single-Most Important Challenge in CRE Lending 2% 5% 7% 16% 5% 7% 2% Regulatory burden and requirements Lack of borrower demand Competition from bank lenders Competition from non-bank lenders Fewer credit-worthy projects Lack of qualified borrowers Appraisal challenges 57% 16

17 Biggest Competitor 1% 1% % 13% CMBS market Government agency 5% 7% 2% 2% 2017 CMBS market Government agency Insurance company Insurance company 34% 49% Large banks Regional banks Community banks nbank lenders Credit unions 39% 45% Large banks Smaller banks nbank lenders Credit unions Foreign investors 17

18 Average Breakdown of CRE Portfolio by Sector 8% 6% 23% 18% 17% Multifamily Office Industrial Hospitality Retail Healthcare 15% 12% 18

19 Loan-to-Value Ratios for Originated CRE Loans % 3.6% Loan-to-value ratio 4 or less 3.5% 0.5% 4.4% Loan-to-value ratio 4 or less % Loan-to-value between 4 and 5 8.6% Loan-to-value between 4 and % 11.6% 24.4% Loan-to-value between 5 and 6 Loan-to-value between 6 and 7 Loan-to-value between 7 and 8 Loan-to-value between 8 and 9 Loan-to-value greater than % 24.8% 14.6% Loan-to-value between 5 and 6 Loan-to-value between 6 and 7 Loan-to-value between 7 and 8 Loan-to-value between 8 and 9 Loan-to-value greater than 9 19

20 Commercial Portfolio Breakdown By Loan Type % 8% 4% 5% 12% Commercial construction CRE non-owner occupied 8% 4% 14% Commercial construction CRE non-owner occupied CRE owner occupied CRE owner occupied 29% 42% Small business CRE lending SBA CRE 3 42% Small business CRE lending SBA CRE 20

21 Amortization Terms Max Amortization Periods Offered (2015) Max Amortization Periods Offered (2017) 17% 2% 21% 15 years 26% 16% 15 years 20 years 20 years 25 years 25 years 6 58% Does your bank originate interest-only loans? (2015) Does your bank originate interest-only loans? (2017)

22 Selling Loans and Participations to Financial Institutions Did your bank sell loan participations? (2015) 27% Did your bank sell loan participations? (2017) 26% 73% Did your bank sell CRE loans? (2015) 74% Did your bank sell CRE loans? (2017) 54% 46% 45% 55% 22

23 If your bank sold CRE loans other financial institutions, what type of institution purchased the loan?* Mark all that apply. Similar sized banks 76% Smaller banks 44% Larger banks 36% nbanks 8% Credit unions *Numbers represent the percentage of respondents that select an answer 23

24 High-Volatility Commercial Real Estate (HVCRE) Does your bank currently have loans outstanding that are classified as HVCRE? (2015) Does your bank currently have loans outstanding that are classified as HVCRE? (2017) 36% % 24

25 High-Volatility Commercial Real Estate (HVCRE) If HVCRE outstanding, did your bank increase pricing to reflect the additional capital cost of the HVCRE classification? (2015) If HVCRE outstanding, did your bank increase pricing to reflect the additional capital cost of the HVCRE classification? (2017) 37% 34% 63% 66% 25

26 High-Volatility Commercial Real Estate (HVCRE) Has your bank quoted CRE loan terms structured to avoid HVCRE classification but were then lost to a competitor who didn t have the same requirements? (2015) Has your bank quoted CRE loan terms structured to avoid HVCRE classification but were then lost to a competitor who didn t have the same requirements? (2017) 53% 47% 54% 46% 26

27 High-Volatility Commercial Real Estate (HVCRE) Has your bank quoted CRE loan terms structured to avoid HVCRE classification but were declined by the borrower due to the structure (2015)? Has your bank quoted CRE loan terms structured to avoid HVCRE classification but were declined by the borrower due to the structure (2017)? 53% 47% 53% 47% 27