Always Be Prepared. October 12, 2018 by Liz Ann Sonders, Jeffrey Kleintop & Brad Sorensen of Charles Schwab
|
|
- Duane Harmon
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 Always Be Prepared October 12, 2018 by Liz Ann Sonders, Jeffrey Kleintop & Brad Sorensen of Charles Schwab Key Points Recent stock market action reminds us how quickly things can change. It s also a reminder that seemingly-subtle shifts in the direction of fundamental data can lead to significant moves in the markets. Heading into this month, markets were breathing easier over the apparent trade agreement among the United States, Mexico and Canada; however, the potential higher stakes battle continues to escalate with China, which has been one of the market risks we ve been citing all year. Add to mix the ongoing tight labor market, and a seemingly more hawkish Federal Reserve and you had the recipe for a major pullback. The correlation between bond yields and stocks has shifted to an inverse relationship; both here and globally, which could be sounding a further warning sign for investors. It wasn t raining when Noah built the ark. - Howard Ruft Storm clouds building? As anyone who has had the misfortune of riding out a severe storm knows, the time to prepare is before the event, not during. Likewise, preparation for inevitable market corrections should be looked at while the skies are clear, because storms can come up quickly. There were several contributors to this past week s rout; not least being U.S. Treasury yields breaking out to multi-year highs, causing consternation among equity investors and contributing to the sharpest two-day pullback in equities that we ve seen in months. Yields breaking out to new highs Page 1, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
2 pressuring U.S. equities Our fixed income team doesn t believe yields will move significantly higher from here, but investors should be prepared in the event they do (more on that below). We do believe we have passed a threshold of sorts with regard to the relationship between bond yields and stock prices. During deflationary/disinflationary periods like the one we ve been in since the financial crisis bond yields and stock prices tend to be positively correlated. But once disinflation gives way to higher current and expected inflation, the correlation between bond yields and stock prices tends to move from inverse to positive. This is what we are recently seeing. We do not think this warrants that investors flee for the equity exits, but our more cautious stance over the past year keeps us in the camp of recommending that investors have no more than their normal long-term allocation to equities (hence our neutral rating on stocks). At a more tactical level, we recently moved to a more defensive stance from a sector Page 2, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
3 perspective, and believe health care may be a good place to look for potential opportunities in the current environment, read more at Health Care: The Right Prescription? Prior to this correction, stocks were at all-time highs; with support coming partly from the massive amount of cash being returned to shareholders by companies through buybacks and dividends. S&P reports that through the end of the second quarter, buybacks were up 49.9% from the year ago level while also setting a record for any 12-month period. Additionally, during the second quarter, dividends for S&P 500 companies totaled $111.6 billion a new record and up over 7% from the first quarter. The rub to this market support is that it will inevitably begin to fade as we move into But the economy still looks good! It s a common refrain we hear from investors who have pushed back against our more cautious stance. But we ve seen that the best stock returns tend to come when economic data is weaker, not stronger remember the stock market is a forward-looking mechanism. Stocks have an uncanny ability to figure out when the data is at or near its peak and just beginning to roll over (i.e., stocks tend to discount inflection points). Stocks rarely wait for the data to deteriorate meaningfully. For example, the chart below shows that the best equity returns have come when the unemployment rate one of the most lagging of all economic indicators is in its highest zone. Stocks seems to dislike low unemployment Source: Leuthold Group S&P 500 returns* by unemployment rate (UR) ranges. Past Page 3, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
4 performance is not a guarantee of future results. *Y-Axis-Based on monthly data annualized from 1/1950-8/2018. Annualized returns are inflationadjusted by CPI. Clearly, we are living in the far right bar presently with the unemployment rate dropping to 3.7% in September, alongside non-farm payroll growth of 134,000 jobs and prior month upward revisions of a combined 87,000 according to the Department of Labor. The unemployment rate is now at the lowest level since But stocks have been reflecting this improvement throughout the bull market; while the likelihood the rate moves significantly lower from here lessens with time. Unemployment historically low Despite the tight labor market, wage growth remains relatively contained, with average hourly earnings rising 2.8%, a tick lower than the previous month s reading. However, several key leading indicators of future wage inflation, such as the NFIB survey noting a record number of responders reporting raising compensation, suggest the path of least resistance is higher. That s great news for Main Street, but less great news for Wall Street as it likely means tighter profit margins along with tighter monetary policy. But the earnings picture looks so good! That s another refrain we hear from investors who have questioned our more cautious stance. We don t disagree that earnings are important drivers of stock prices, or that expectations for the upcoming third quarter earnings season are a strong 21% according to estimates from Thomson Reuters. But that s a high bar to meet, while expectations heading into next year are for a significant slowing in growth, which could take some of the wind out of the bulls sails. Remember, once we move into the first quarter of next year, earnings will be compared to the first quarter of this year, which were provided a hefty boost from corporate tax cuts. Quite simply, the year-over-year growth rate math gets much more difficult in Page 4, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
5 Aside from earnings releases, we ll also be keenly focused on corporate managements commentary on the impact of tariffs and trade on their outlooks. There was some relief that the old NAFTA deal was renegotiated and renamed to the catchy United States, Mexico and Canada Agreement (USMCA). The deal doesn t look like a real game changer, but was seen as a positive in that it removed some uncertainty. But the big whopper of a trade dispute appears to be worsening. The United States and China continue to trade both harsh words, new tariffs and in the case of China, other forms of retaliation with little sign of improvement. We haven t seen a large impact on the actual hard data at this point, but we ll be listening to company executives for signs that they are pulling back on the reins given the ongoing uncertainty with regard to trade. Even in advance of earnings season, we have already begun to hear from large global companies about their concerns; and this appeared to play in to the brutal market action on Wednesday of this past week. Fed throwing a wrench in things? We have pointed out tighter monetary policy and financial conditions, but also the possibility of a monetary policy mistake from the Federal Reserve, as key risks facing the market. In a recent speech, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell noted that he thought the central bank was still accommodative, despite dropping that word from the most recent Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement. Most notably though, he expressed the view that interest rates are a long way from neutral indicating there could be many more hikes to come than what is currently expected. Markets heard this as a more hawkish tone and turned to worrying about the risk that the Fed goes too far and chokes off the recovery. We remain optimistic that the Fed is not on track toward more rigidity; but will remain data-dependent, flexible and cautious. However, as is nearly always the case, higher volatility as a result of monetary policy tightening is likely to persist. Bonds and stocks part ways Global government bond yields have also been rising this year and not just among troubled countries. In fact, the 10-year bonds of countries with the highest (AAA) ratings have seen their yields rise so far this year, with Sweden s small decline being the only exception, as you can see in the chart below. Widespread rise in bond yields of AAA-rated countries this year Page 5, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
6 Source: Charles Schwab, Bloomberg data as of 10/10/2018. The move has been notable for its breadth even Japan has seen a rise in yields but not for its magnitude. Most countries have seen a rise of less than half a percentage point. Overall, yields could be nearing a peak, but it is worth noting that some have hit new highs in October, as you can see in the chart below. Bond yields for some AAA-rated countries made new highs for the year in early October Source: Charles Schwab, Bloomberg data as of 10/10/2018. Why are global bond yields on the rise? There are several logical reasons: inflation has been picking up this year around the world (even in Japan); the European Central Bank (ECB) is nearing the end of its Page 6, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
7 quantitative easing (QE) bond buying program as the year draws to a close; and the U.S. Fed is shrinking its balance sheet by selling some of the bonds it had acquired through its QE. Rising bond yields aren t always a problem for the stock market. As previously noted, yields and stock prices have often moved in the same direction over the past 20 years. But when bond yields and stock prices have moved in different directions it has been a sign of trouble. As you can see in the chart of the correlation between bond yields and stock prices below, they have moved in opposite directions three times in the past 20 years: 99-00, 06-07, and Even though past performance is no guarantee of future results, those periods preceded global stock market declines of -18% in 2001, - 42% in 2008, and -3% in 2015, measured by the MSCI World Index. Heading to a fourth period of bonds yields and stock prices moving in opposite directions? Source: Charles Schwab, Bloomberg data as of 10/10/2018. The chart above also shows that the correlation between bond yields and stock prices has now fallen to around zero. If it falls further and turns negative once again it could be a signal that the global economy is beginning to overheat, sending bond yields higher while stocks slump as they begin to discount economic weakness ahead as central banks tighten policy. It may be no coincidence that these past periods of negative correlation were also the same periods the U.S. Treasury yield curve inverted (2000 and ), we believe a reliable indicator of a coming bear market and recession. For more on the yield curve see: US Bonds Have an Important Message for International Stocks. While bond yields and stock prices could sync back up, the late stage of the economic and earnings cycle suggests that investors pay close attention to asset allocation targets. So what? Stock market action recently illustrates again why it s important for investors to remain disciplined and Page 7, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
8 diversified in a way consistent with their risk tolerances and investment goals. The bull market may have more legs, and upside surprises are possible, but risks have been rising over the past year or so, leading us to be more cautious and recommend that investors limit the risk in their portfolios. Charles Schwab Page 8, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
Navigating the New Environment
Navigating the New Environment May 12, 2018 by Liz Ann Sonders, Jeffrey Kleintop & Brad Sorensen of Charles Schwab Key Points U.S. stock indexes have rebounded from their correction lows, although remain
More informationStocks Laboring to Move Higher
Stocks Laboring to Move Higher August 31, 2018 by Liz Ann Sonders, Jeffrey Kleintop & Brad Sorensen of Charles Schwab Key Points U.S. stocks indexes finally moved to new record highs but not exactly in
More informationStocks Aren t so Spooky
Stocks Aren t so Spooky October 28, 2017 by Liz Ann Sonders, Brad Sorensen and Jeffrey Kleintop of Charles Schwab Key Points Along with new records being set by stocks, investor sentiment measures are
More information"Phenomenal" Expectations
"Phenomenal" Expectations March 4, 2017 by Liz Ann Sonders, Brad Sorensen and Jeffrey Kleintop of Charles Schwab Key Points U.S. stock indexes broke to the upside, on better economic data but also heightened
More informationGoldilocks or the Three Bears?
Goldilocks or the Three Bears? June 11, 2017 by Liz Ann Sonders, Brad Sorensen and Jeffrey Kleintop of Charles Schwab Key Points U.S. equities continue to grind higher, setting records, with volatility
More information2019 Schwab Market Outlook
2019 Schwab Market Outlook Schwab Center for Financial Research Schwab s team of market experts share their perspectives and provide investment guidance EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Be Prepared Last year, our Market
More informationSchwab Market Perspective: Mixed Messages Sending a Clear Signal?
Schwab Market Perspective: Mixed Messages Sending a Clear Signal? October 2, 2018 by Liz Ann Sonders, Jeffrey Kleintop, Brad Sorensen of Charles Schwab Key Points U.S. stock indexes again hit record highs
More informationBaseline U.S. Economic Outlook, Summary Table*
July 218 Gus Faucher Stuart Hoffman William Adams Kurt Rankin Chief Economist Senior Economic Advisor Senior Economist Economist Executive Summary Economy Continues to Expand in Mid-218, But Trade Remains
More informationAn End Has a Start: Keeping an Eye on Recession Indicators
Key Points An End Has a Start: Keeping an Eye on Recession Indicators October 8, 2018 by Liz Ann Sonders of Charles Schwab Second-longest expansion likely to make it to longest; but we re starting to see
More informationSchwab Market Perspective: Unresolved Issues
Key Points Schwab Market Perspective: Unresolved Issues November 9, 2018 by Liz Ann Sonders, Jeffrey Kleintop & Brad Sorensen of Charles Schwab Equities have rallied off the lows but the issues contributing
More informationThe Waiting: Wage Growth and Inflation Finally Getting in Gear?
The Waiting: Wage Growth and Inflation Finally Getting in Gear? October 10, 2017 by Liz Ann Sonders of Charles Schwab Key Points Hurricanes impacted job growth; but not unemployment or wages, which both
More informationThe Song Remains the Same? Higher Rates Don t Typically Kill Bull Markets
The Song Remains the Same? Higher Rates Don t Typically Kill Bull Markets July 28, 2015 by Liz Ann Sonders of Charles Schwab Key Points Slow tightening cycles tend to be rewarded by much better equity
More informationLeumi. Global Economics Monthly Review. Gil M. Bufman, Chief Economist Arie Tal, Research Economist. March 13, 2018
Global Economics Monthly Review March 13, 2018 Gil M. Bufman, Chief Economist Arie Tal, Research Economist The Finance Division, Economics Department Please note that we will not publish the monthly review
More informationHOPE FOR ROTATION. So, let me talk a little about each of these. Tariffs. Tariffs are restrictions to trade; they are a tax and they cause inflation.
HOPE FOR ROTATION We ve said repeatedly that we believe the current bull market will continue until there is either a recession or a restrictive monetary policy. So far, that position has been accurate
More informationGlobalization vs. the U.S. Business Cycle: The Effects on U.S. Interest Rates
Deron T. McCoy CFA, CFP, CAIA, AIF Chief Investment Officer Originally written June 2014 Updated September 2014 Globalization vs. the U.S. Business Cycle: The Effects on U.S. Interest Rates Globalization
More informationGlobal Macroeconomic Monthly Review
Global Macroeconomic Monthly Review August 14 th, 2018 Arie Tal, Research Economist Capital Markets Division, Economics Department 1 Please see disclaimer on the last page of this report Key Issues Global
More informationGundlach s Forecast for 2017
Gundlach s Forecast for 2017 January 11, 2017 by Robert Huebscher Investors will confront excessive debt, high P/E levels and political uncertainty as they enter the Trump presidential era. In response,
More informationSympathy for the Devil in the Details of Leading Economic Indicators
Key Points Sympathy for the Devil in the Details of Leading Economic Indicators October 24, 2018 by Liz Ann Sonders of Charles Schwab Leading economic indicators are showing no stress on the surface; but
More informationSchwab Market Perspective: Rally Return or Continued Caution?
Schwab Market Perspective: Rally Return or Continued Caution? January 18, 2019 by Liz Ann Sonders, Jeffrey Kleintop, Brad Sorensen of Charles Schwab Key Points U.S. equities have rebounded as some macro
More informationDebt Song: It s Not a Pretty Tune
Debt Song: It s Not a Pretty Tune June 19, 2018 by Liz Ann Sonders of Charles Schwab Key Points Total credit market debt is down from its pre-financial crisis high, but still stratospheric. Although household
More informationMacro Monthly UBS Asset Management June 2018
Macro Monthly UBS Asset Management June 18 Investing in a mature cycle Erin Browne Head of Asset Allocation Evan Brown, CFA Director, Asset Allocation Roland Czerniawski, CFA Associate Director, Asset
More informationSchwab Market Perspective: Navigating the Changing Market Environment
Schwab Market Perspective: Navigating the Changing Market Environment April 2, 2018 by Liz Ann Sonders, Jeffrey Kleintop, Brad Sorensen of Charles Schwab Key Points Stock markets have behaved much differently
More informationGundlach: The Goldilocks Era is Over
Gundlach: The Goldilocks Era is Over December 6, 2017 by Robert Huebscher Easy monetary policies during the post-crisis period have propelled equity prices higher and driven bond yields lower. But as central
More informationOverall M&A Market Commentary
Overall M&A Market Commentary The U.S. economy continues to show strong momentum with 2Q18 GDP growth recorded at 4.2%. The Blue Chip consensus estimate for 3Q18 GDP growth of 3.3% and the Atlanta Fed
More informationBCA 4Q 2018 Review and 2019 Outlook Russ Allen, CIO. Summary Outlook
BCA 4Q 2018 Review and 2019 Outlook Russ Allen, CIO Summary Outlook January 15, 2019 Markets in 2019 will be choppy with volatility more like this past year than the placid trading of 2017. The Fed is
More informationWILL GOLD CONTINUE TO SHINE?
LPL RESEARCH WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY March 7 216 WILL GOLD CONTINUE TO SHINE? Burt White Chief Investment Officer, LPL Financial Jeffrey Buchbinder, CFA Market Strategist, LPL Financial KEY TAKEAWAYS
More informationRisk of Policy Error Clearly Rising Some Key Charts and Index Levels
Risk of Policy Error Clearly Rising Some Key Charts and Index Levels 4 th March 2018 What a difference a few weeks make. At the end of January, financial markets were melting up, commentators were salivating
More informationEconomic Update. September By Andrew Kohl
9/24/18 Economic Update By Andrew Kohl Andrew Kohl Chief Investment Officer Commentary The stock market continues its march forward and is back to all-time highs. The S&P 500 has gained over 9% thus far
More informationOn The Economy, Wages, Interest Rates & The Yield Curve
On The Economy, Wages, Interest Rates & The Yield Curve May 1, 2018 by Gary D. Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management Overview We touch on several bases today, starting with last Friday s initial estimate
More informationWaiting for the End Game
LEADERSHIP SERIES JULY 2018 Waiting for the End Game The market is looking for the interest rate cycle s next inflection point. Jurrien Timmer l Director of Global Macro l @TimmerFidelity Key Takeaways
More informationAsset Allocation Model March Update
The month of February was marked by a sell-off in global equity markets and a sudden increase in market volatility with the CBOE Volatility Index reaching its highest level since August 2015. The rout
More informationThird Quarter /30/2018 1
Third Quarter 2018 The third quarter saw strong returns for U.S. equity investors. The S&P 500 returned 7.7% and year to date is up 10.6%. At 114 months and counting, as measured by the S&P 500, the current
More informationEconomic Perspectives 3 rd Quarter Executive Summary. TRICIA NEWCOMB CIMA Associate, Senior Strategy Analyst
Economic Perspectives 3 rd Quarter 2017 Executive Summary The final estimate of Q2 GDP indicated that the economy grew at a 3.1% rate, the highest quarterly growth rate since Q1 of 2015. Consumer spending
More informationEquities vs. fixed income: timing asset allocation shifts
Despite the economic environment remaining supportive, asset market volatility has risen as central bank liquidity is being withdrawn Concerns over the effects policy changes will have on fixed income
More informationKey takeaways. What it may mean for investors FIRST A NALYSIS NEWS OR EVENTS T HAT MAY AFFECT Y OUR INVESTMENTS. Global Investment Strategy Team
FIRST A NALYSIS NEWS OR EVENTS T HAT MAY AFFECT Y OUR INVESTMENTS Global Investment Strategy Team February 5, 2018 Market Sell-off What Investors Need to Know Now Key takeaways» A swift climb in the 10-year
More informationCash Management Portfolios
September 30, 2018 Portfolio Manager Commentary Cash Management Portfolios Chief Investment Officer Jim Palmer What market conditions had a direct impact on the bond market this quarter? Positive economic
More informationMarket Insight: Turn Down the News Volume, Listen to the Market
August 9, 2018 Market Insight: Turn Down the News Volume, Listen to the Market If you just listened to the news headlines, it would be hard to find reasons to like this market. Trade Wars ; Tariff Threats
More informationThe Mid-Year Economic Forecast. June 20, 2018
The Mid-Year Economic Forecast June 20, 2018 Agenda National Economy: On a Solid Footing Construction & Housing: Still Strong Risks: What Could Go Wrong? 2 National Economy On a Solid Footing 3 GDP Grew
More informationWeekly Market Commentary
LPL FINANCIAL RESEARCH Weekly Market Commentary November 18, 2014 Emerging Markets Opportunity Still Emerging Burt White Chief Investment Officer LPL Financial Jeffrey Buchbinder, CFA Market Strategist
More informationIs the Flattening Yield Curve Sending a Message?
Is the Flattening Yield Curve Sending a Message? FEBRUARY 2018 Sean Simko, ChFC Managing Director SEI Fixed Income Portfolio Management SEI Fixed Income Portfolio Management (SFIPM) manages fixed-income
More informationThe Conversation We ll Be Having for Years to Come
LEADERSHIP SERIES SEPTEMBER 2017 A feature article from our U.S. partners The Conversation We ll Be Having for Years to Come It s time to consider what a return to conventional monetary policy could mean
More informationGus Faucher Stuart Hoffman William Adams Kurt Rankin Chief Economist Senior Economic Advisor Senior Economist Economist
August 18 Gus Faucher Stuart Hoffman William Adams Kurt Rankin Chief Economist Senior Economic Advisor Senior Economist Economist Executive Summary Excellent Second Quarter Growth as Labor Market Continues
More informationFINANCIAL LETTER SUMMARY. Market Review
FINANCIAL LETTER Market Review By Louis Lizotte, CFA, FRM, Vice President, Investments, FÉRIQUE Fund Management Third Quarter of 2018 SUMMARY With the third quarter already over, what conclusions can we
More informationThreading the Needle. Esther L. George President and Chief Executive Officer Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City
Threading the Needle Esther L. George President and Chief Executive Officer Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City July 17, 2018 Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Agricultural Symposium Kansas City, Mo.
More informationThe Yield Curve and Monetary Policy in 2018
The Yield Curve and Monetary Policy in 2018 Christopher Waller Executive Vice President and Director of Research Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis May 22, 2018 The views expressed here are those of the
More information2017 Mid-year US Equity Outlook: Rattle and Hum
2017 Mid-year US Equity Outlook: Rattle and Hum July 5, 2017 by Liz Ann Sonders of Charles Schwab Key Points We may be witnessing an extreme version of "gridlock is good" with record-setting partisan conflict.
More informationEconomic Outlook In the Shoes of an FOMC Member
Economic Outlook In the Shoes of an FOMC Member This material must be read in conjunction with the disclosure statement. 9 April 2018 PRESENTED BY: MARKUS SCHOMER Chief Economist PineBridge Investments
More informationOctober 2016 Market Update
Market Update (10/2016) Allianz Investment Management LLC October 2016 Market Update Key Points The lack of further easing measures from both the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank are causing
More informationEconomic and Financial Markets Monthly Review & Outlook Detailed Report January 2018
Economic and Financial Markets Monthly Review & Outlook Detailed Report January 1 NOT FDIC INSURED NO BANK GUARANTEE MAY LOSE VALUE Overview of the Economy Business and economic confidence continue to
More informationGundlach s Forecast for 2016
Gundlach s Forecast for 2016 January 19, 2016 by Robert Huebscher Jeffrey Gundlach is a prescient and accurate forecaster. Last week, as he does each January, he offered his market outlook. But unlike
More informationPCA Perspectives. Permit Capital Advisors Thoughts on the Investing Landscape
PCA Perspectives Permit Capital Advisors Thoughts on the Investing Landscape October 2018 I can t change the direction of the wind, but I can adjust my sails to always reach my destination. -- Jimmy Dean
More informationMarket Commentary November 2015
Market Commentary November 2015 The Federal Reserve will, most likely, raise interest rates in December The last time rates were set up was in 2006. It could lead to higher volatility in the short term
More informationThe Stock Market's Final Four
The Stock Market's Final Four April 2, 2019 by John Lynch of LPL Financial The NCAA Final Four is set. On the men s side, Auburn, Michigan State, Texas Tech, and Virginia are headed to Minneapolis to determine
More informationANOTHER TOUGH WEEK COMMENTARY REASSURANCE KEY TAKEAWAYS LPL RESEARCH WEEKLY MARKET. October
LPL RESEARCH WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY October 29 2018 ANOTHER TOUGH WEEK John Lynch Chief Investment Strategist, LPL Financial Jeffrey Buchbinder, CFA Equity Strategist, LPL Financial Ryan Detrick, CMT
More informationEconomic and Market Outlook November Jim Allworth RBC Ds Investment Strategist
Economic and Market Outlook November 2018 Jim Allworth RBC Ds Investment Strategist October 2018 Our Long-Term Operating Framework Credit conditions remain extremely accommodative Every U.S. recession
More informationEconomic Perspectives 2 nd Quarter Executive Summary. TRICIA NEWCOMB CIMA Associate, Senior Strategy Analyst
Economic Perspectives 2 nd Quarter 2017 Executive Summary The final estimate of Q1 GDP indicated that the economy grew at a % rate. While this was an improvement from the initial estimate 0.7%, it marked
More informationEARNINGS UPDATE: RAISING THE BAR
LPL RESEARCH WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY May 15 2017 EARNINGS UPDATE: RAISING THE BAR Burt White Chief Investment Officer, LPL Financial Jeffrey Buchbinder, CFA Market Strategist, LPL Financial KEY TAKEAWAYS
More informationDEAR JEROME, (Jerome Powell, Chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve)
Quarterly Commentary January 2019 DEAR JEROME, (Jerome Powell, Chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve) Stocks experienced their worst December since the Great Depression largely because you and the rest
More informationThe Harbour Group of RBC Dominion Securities All for One: YouTM
RBC Dominion Securities Inc. The Harbour Group of RBC Dominion Securities All for One: YouTM Climbing The Wall Of Worry August, 2018 Fundamentals And Politics In A Tug of War 1. Strong Fundamentals Blunted
More informationOur goal is to provide a clear perspective on the global financial markets, as well as a logical framework to discuss them, thereby enabling
Our goal is to provide a clear perspective on the global financial markets, as well as a logical framework to discuss them, thereby enabling investors to recognize both the opportunities and risks that
More information- Stocks and credit sensitive bonds sold off in the fourth quarter of 2018 capping off the worst December since 1931.
Fourth Quarter 2018 Market Newsletter Summary. - Stocks and credit sensitive bonds sold off in the fourth quarter of 2018 capping off the worst December since 1931. - The US economy is moderating but is
More informationTrumponomics and the consequences for the policy mix December 2016
PERSPECTIVES Trumponomics and the consequences for the policy mix December 2016 The election of Donald Trump as the next President of the United States is, in our view, a game changer. His economic programme
More informationQ SMALL BALANCE MULTIFAMILY INVESTMENT TRENDS REPORT BY ARBOR
YEAR-END 2018 Q2 2018 SMALL BALANCE MULTIFAMILY INVESTMENT TRENDS REPORT BY ARBOR SMALL BALANCE MARKET ENDS 2018 ON A HIGH NOTE Cap Rates Hold Constant as Market Readies for Potential Rate Hikes Benchmark
More informationMind the gap. With upward revisions to the natural rate, it looks like the Fed may still have plenty more wood to chop.
A feature article from our U.S. partners INSIGHTS OCTOBER 018 Mind the gap With upward revisions to the natural rate, it looks like the Fed may still have plenty more wood to chop. Jurrien Timmer l Director
More informationRise Up: Dow 20k Fails to Thrill Individual Investors
Rise Up: Dow 20k Fails to Thrill Individual Investors January 30, 2017 by Liz Ann Sonders of Charles Schwab Key Points After a torturous period of flirtation, the Dow finally crosses 20k Individual sentiment
More informationConvergence Long/Short Strategies Q Review and Commentary
Convergence Long/Short Strategies Q4-2017 Review and Commentary Q4-2017 As we close the book on 2017 and look forward to 2018, at Convergence we foresee the global expansion continuing, however, we anticipate
More informationDiffusion indices of forecast risks in Summary of Economic Projections From September 2016 FOMC to December 2018 FOMC.
Trend Macrolytics, LLC Donald Luskin, Chief Investment Officer Thomas
More informationLarbi Moumni, CFA October 19, 2018
Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Weekly Trends Larbi Moumni, CFA October 19, 2018 Chart Pack This week we look at a series of charts to help us take the
More informationMarket Commentary. Q Review. Market & Economic Review Third Quarter 2018
Market Commentary Market & Economic Review Third Quarter 2018 Q2 2018 Review The quarter can be analyzed from the impact of taxes, trade, and Treasuries (Some might add President Trump or Twitter as well).
More informationThe Hottest M&A Market Ever:
The Hottest M&A Market Ever: What You Should Do About It Keynote at the World Angel Investment Summit September 27, 2018 Toronto, Canada Basil Peters Early Exits 10 Years On Ten years ago when I wrote
More informationMIDYEAR OUTLOOK 2017 COMMENTARY
LPL RESEARCH WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY June 19 17 MIDYEAR OUTLOOK 17 BUSINESS FUNDAMENTALS BACK AT THE CONTROLS Burt White Chief Investment Officer, LPL Financial Jeffrey Buchbinder, CFA Market Strategist,
More informationGlobal Bond Markets to Enter New Phase in 2018
Global Bond Markets to Enter New Phase in 2018 January 8, 2018 by Douglas Peebles of AllianceBernstein 2017 was supposed to be the year that would put an end to modest growth, lukewarm inflation and anemic
More informationGrowing for nearly a decade. 114 months and counting, through December Will become longest Post-War expansion if it lasts through July
Economic Update Closing in on Expansion Record Byron Gangnes Professor of Economics Senior Research Fellow, UHERO University of Hawaii at Manoa VLI February 219 Hawaii Island Growing for nearly a decade
More informationIs The Market Predicting A Recession?
Is The Market Predicting A Recession? October 25, 2018 by Lance Roberts of Real Investment Advice There has been lot s of analysis lately on what message the recent gyrations in the market are sending.
More informationCOMMENTARY NUMBER 372 April Trade Deficit, Bernanke Shift. June 9, Earthquake-Diminished Imports of Auto Parts Narrowed April Deficit
COMMENTARY NUMBER 372 April Trade Deficit, Bernanke Shift June 9, 2011 Earthquake-Diminished Imports of Auto Parts Narrowed April Deficit Trade Revisions Showed Somewhat Deeper Historical Shortfalls Mr.
More informationNovember 2017 Market Update
Market Update (11/2017) Allianz Investment Management LLC November 2017 Market Update Key Points Equities rallied to fresh all-time highs as the prospects for tax reform continued to move forward. Jay
More informationOverall M&A Market Commentary
Overall M&A Market Commentary At 115 months and counting, the current U.S. economic expansion is in record territory. After eight years of fed policy induced stock market tranquility, stock market volatility
More information2016 April Financial Market Update
Charles Sherry Director, Institutional Education Group Blue Ocean Global Wealth 51 Monroe St., Plaza West 06 Rockville, MD 20850 Tel: 720.308.4560 csherry@blueoceanglobalwealth.com 2016 April Financial
More informationAN OLD ADAGE. Tax Reform and Earnings
AN OLD ADAGE There s an old adage on Wall Street that says, Buy the rumor, sell the news. It s a simple synthesis of how the market operates in that it reacts to expectation or forecasts, it doesn t wait
More informationStock Market Volatility in Context
Stock Market Volatility in Context We ve come a long way and have every reason for a pause. As of this writing, Thursday, December 6 2018, global stocks have sold off for the entire week, leaving most
More informationVanguard 2017 economic and market outlook: What s ahead for 2017?
Vanguard 2017 economic and market outlook: What s ahead for 2017? David Eldreth: When talking about the investment and market outlook for 2017, the question on many investors minds is around uncertainty
More informationRecession Risk Low, But Starting To Rise
Recession Risk Low, But Starting To Rise December 10, 2018 by Urban Carmel of The Fat Pitch Summary: The macro economic story is starting to change. The data from the past month continues to mostly point
More informationEconomic Views Brief OPTIMISM DOMINATES THE 2018 OUTLOOK.
Economic Views Brief Russell T. Price, CFA, Senior Economist December 14, 2017 OPTIMISM DOMINATES THE 2018 OUTLOOK. The U.S. economy appears set to enter 2018 with good momentum and solid fundamentals.
More informationPrudential International Investments Advisers, LLC. Global Investment Strategy October 2009
Prudential International Investments Advisers, LLC. Global Investment Strategy October 2009 By John Praveen, Chief Investment Strategist For Market Commentary Interviews Contact: Lisa Villareal, 973-367-2503/lisa.villareal@prudential.com
More informationTable 1: Economic Growth Measures
US Equities continued to advance in the second quarter, with the S&P 500 returning 5.2% for the quarter and 7.1% for the first half. Energy was by far the best performing sector in the quarter, returning
More informationBy John Praveen, Chief Investment Strategist of Prudential International Investments Advisers, LLC.*
By John Praveen, Chief Investment Strategist of Prudential International Investments Advisers, LLC.* Financial Market Outlook: Stocks Supported by Renewed Central Bank Put but Face Headwinds from Continued
More informationRising Yields Begin to Bite
Rising Yields Begin to Bite bbtperspectives.com/rising-yields-begin-bite/ February 5, 2018 February 5, 2018 Volatility returned to global stock markets last week with the S&P 500 declining -3.85 percent
More informationMid-Year 2018 Outlook
Mid-Year 2018 Outlook The current U.S. equity bull market is the longest in postwar history and the current U.S. economic expansion is the second longest in its history. However, age is not a great predictor
More informationFIVE FORECASTERS: FEW WARNING SIGNS
LPL RESEARCH WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY January 25 2016 FIVE FORECASTERS: FEW WARNING SIGNS Burt White Chief Investment Officer, LPL Financial; Jeffrey Buchbinder, CFA Market Strategist, LPL Financial; Barry
More informationIt has been another week of bumpy risk appetite, as both tariff risks and North Korea have entered the frame again.
It has been another week of bumpy risk appetite, as both tariff risks and North Korea have entered the frame again. We warned a few months back that Auto tariffs would be the obvious next target for Donald
More information2016 July Financial Market Update
Brexit Fades as Focus Returns Home 2016 July Financial Market Update Last month s summary ended with the following remarks: July 29, 2016 Don t discount the possibility of additional short-term volatility
More information2018 Employment Was The Second Best Since 2000
2018 Employment Was The Second Best Since 2000 January 4, 2019 by Urban Carmel of The Fat Pitch Summary: The macro economic story has started to change. The data from the past month continues to mostly
More informationGOLD OUTLOOK 2019: RECOVERY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
GOLD OUTLOOK 2019: RECOVERY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE January 2019 Gold staged a recovery late in 2018. The yellow metal has recovered most of its losses since June 2018. A collapse in speculative positioning
More informationInvestment Perspectives. From The Global Investment Committee
Investment Perspectives From The Global Investment Committee Global Risk Aversion Reached Extreme Levels Morgan Stanley Standardized Global Risk Demand Index As of October 15, 2014 Complacent Extreme Fear
More informationMoving On Up Today s Economic Environment
Moving On Up Today s Economic Environment Presented by PFM Asset Management LLC Gray Lepley, Senior Analyst, Portfolio Strategies November 8, 2018 PFM 1 U.S. ECONOMY Today s Agenda MONETARY POLICY GEOPOLITICAL
More informationErdem Başçi: Recent economic and financial developments in Turkey
Erdem Başçi: Recent economic and financial developments in Turkey Speech by Mr Erdem Başçi, Governor of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, at the press conference for the presentation of the April
More informationGlobal economy in charts
Global economy in charts Ian Stewart, Debapratim De, Tom Simmons & Peter Ireson Economics & Markets Research, Deloitte, London Summary 1. Global activity easing 2. Slowdown most apparent in euro area 3.
More informationLeumi. Global Economics Monthly Review. Arie Tal, Research Economist. July 12, Capital Markets Division, Economics Department. leumiusa.
Global Economics Monthly Review July 12, 2018 Arie Tal, Research Economist Capital Markets Division, Economics Department Leumi leumiusa.com Please see important disclaimer on the last page of this report
More informationGAUGING GLOBAL GROWTH: AN UPDATE FOR 2015 & 2016 John J. Canally, Jr., CFA Chief Economic Strategist, LPL Financial
LPL RESEARCH WEEKLY ECONOMIC COMMENTARY October 1 15 GAUGING GLOBAL GROWTH: AN UPDATE FOR 15 & 16 John J. Canally, Jr., CFA Chief Economic Strategist, LPL Financial KEY TAKEAWAYS As companies report third
More informationBUYING AT RECORD HIGHS
LPL RESEARCH PRIVATE CLIENT THOUGHT LEADERSHIP WEALTH INSIGHTS BUYING AT RECORD HIGHS July 2016 EQUITIES, EVEN WHEN AT NEW ALL-TIME HIGHS, HAVE HISTORICALLY OFFERED LONG- TERM OPPORTUNITY FOR INVESTORS
More information