FIAR PRIVATE PENSIONS Conference Poiana-Brasov, 24 May 2017
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1 Pensions in Europe A personal perspective on some important developments by Falco Valkenburg Independent Actuary Chairperson Pensions Committee of the Actuarial Association of Europe Member of the Occupational Pensions Stakeholder Group of the European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority FIAR PRIVATE PENSIONS Conference Poiana-Brasov, 24 May 2017
2 Actuarial Association of Europe Established in 1978 by 12 national associations Belgium, Denmark, France (2), Germany, Ireland, Italy (2), Luxembourg, Netherlands, UK (2) Now representing over actuaries in Europe Full Member Associations (32) Observer Member Associations (4) Purpose advise European institutions on issues of actuarial interest provide a forum for discussion among actuarial associations in Europe promote high standards of education and professionalism further the education and professional development contributing to the well-being of society 2
3 Agenda 1rst Pillar Pensions Ageing Report of the European Commission Some impactful developments My personal perspective Additional savings needed Household s needs comes first Make savings relevant now!
4 Main sources: 2015 Ageing Report 424 pages Economic Projections 436 pages Assumptions/Methods 2015 Pension Adequacy Report 396 pages Volume I 373 pages Volume II That is pages in total Our discussion paper provides a summary and additional actuarial considerations in only 48 pages
5 Overall projection of public costs to 2060 for EU % of GDP in 2013 % of GDP in Health care Long-term care Education Unemployment Pensions Total
6 Demographic background for EU Total fertility rates for selected EU member states I E F 3.50 R U K 3.00 S E B 2.50 Point of convergence E (level UK and Sweden) D 2.00 K F I 1.50 R O C 1.00 Z
7 Demographic background in EU Male expectation of life at 65 to 2060 in selected countries FR ES SE IT U K IE D E NL AT BE PT D K SI C Z
8 Demographic background in EU Female expectation of life at 65 to 2060 in selected countries 27.0 FR ES IT FI AT BE SE D E IE NL SI U K D K EE PL
9 Period and cohort expectations of life, UK, 2015 Males 2015 Females 2015 Period Cohort Period Cohort Important to draw the distinction between period and cohort expectations of life. Difference of about 2.6 years at age 65. However, cohort expectations often not published.
10 Projection of net migration flows Net migration flow in 2020 (000s) Cumulative net migration Cumulative as % of 2013 population LU BE IT SE AT FI UK ES DE FR RO LV LT
11 Demographic background in EU Old-age dependency ratios in some countries, 2013 to 70.0 PT 2060 PL DE 60.0 EE ES 50.0 IT RO 40.0 AT CZ 30.0 NL FI FR 20.0 UK DK 10.0 SE BE IE
12 Demographic background in EU Old-age dependency ratios in some countries, 2013 to Adjusted for retirement age rising from 65 to 70 PT DE 60.0 PL SI ES 50.0 IT RO 40.0 AT NL 30.0 EE FR FI 20.0 UK SE 10.0 DK BE IE
13 Demographic background in EU Pension age to maintain cohort expectation of life (UK) Expectation of Expectation of 24.3 Year 21.6 for males for females per decade 1.1 per decade Over 50 yrs
14 Member states with largest populations (millions) 2060 (millions) Increase UK % France % Germany % Italy % Spain % Poland % Romania % Total EU %
15 Change in population of working age % % Lithuania 47.8 France +4.7 Latvia 42.0 Denmark +6.2 Bulgaria 39.1 Cyprus +6.4 Greece 35.5 United Kingdom Portugal 35.5 Finland Poland 33.9 Sweden Romania 28.5 Belgium Total EU 11.6 Luxembourg +87.1
16 The 2015 Ageing Report Public pension expenditures in 2013 and 2060, % of GDP Country Increase 2012 AR Luxembourg Slovenia Belgium Germany Ireland Netherlands United Kingdom Romania Italy France Denmark EU
17 Reform measures undertaken or in progress Major reform measures include > raising eligibility age for public pensions > reductions in pension accrual rates > career average instead of final salary > less generous indexation of pensions in payment > notional defined contribution structures > contribution increases
18 Analysis of pension cost changes The Ageing Report analyses changes into components: > > > > changes in dependency ratio changes in coverage ratio labour market effects changes in benefit ratio
19 Change in Benefit Ratios % % Cyprus 32.5 Finland 6.7 Spain 25.3 Italy 6.4 Sweden 16.9 Germany 5.2 Latvia 16.2 Slovenia 5.0 Portugal 15.8 Ireland 3.1 Slovakia 15.6 Netherlands 1.1 Romania 14.5 United Kingdom 0.7 Greece 14.1 Luxembourg +0.5 Denmark +7.5 Total EU (weighted) 8.1 Benefit ratio is ratio of average pension to average wage.
20 Pension Adequacy Report 2015 Striking comment in the 2015 Ageing Report: DG Employment s riposte to The Ageing Report 2015 > important to consider adequacy alongside sustainability > adequacy and also fairness > importance of wider considerations > e.g. access to health care, housing > limitations of theoretical measures such as replacement ratios > need to look at many different facets
21 Need for additional savings Are people willing to save? Means sacrificing purchase power now To build purchase power in retirement Tax incentives? Mandatory savings? Suggestion: Make savings relevant now 21
22
23 Australia
24 Example linking current themes (Energy) Savings resulting in additional (Pension) Savings Engagement s g n Sustainability i v a s Return n o i s (Local) Economy n e w p o Environment g tn n Communication aki an v M e l Member-focus e r
25 Insurers and / or Pension Funds Members of pension arrangeme nts Local Cooperativ es Member Communit y Member Communit Community yof Member Communities Communit y Energy fund (investmen t fund) Member Communit y Pension savings in The Netherlands: some billion euro If only 10% of the Members would be interested for only 1% of their money (125 million euro) Potential other areas: food, health care, housing, We could benefit individually We could benefit collectively We could change society Portals Services Portals External External Services Community Platform Supplier Solar panels/ Wind mills Engineerin g Consultanc y
26 Empowering the members from pension communication to informing on all income and all spending Approximately but relevant instead of exact but irrelevant 3 easy steps to arrive at this chart Using already available data PSD2 will further boost the relevancy of information
27 Pension Health Newsflash: Foxconn has a factory for 20,000 workers building 1,000,000 robots that make 500,000 workers unneccessary Housing 27
28 28
29 My Charcoal Sketch 1rst Pillar: BASIC INCOME Solidarity with the weaker civilized society Reasonable level (political decision)
30 My Charcoal Sketch 2nd/3rd Pillar (combined, no difference): Individual savings, collectively managed Multiple goals (such as education, child care, start of own business, mortgage repayment, pension, health care) Encore! A National (or even European) Program for your 2nd, 3rd or 4th career including Test-Driving your Dream Job I see a very relevant role for innovative insurers and pension savings funds Making pension
31 My Charcoal Sketch BASIC INCOME + Individual savings (collectively managed) + ENCORE! programme Creating a Life & Work You Love and Never want to Retire from
32 Falco Valkenburg Bunsinglaan 3a, 3709 JN Zeist, The Netherlands +31 (0) ,
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