Colorado Economy and State Budget Outlook

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Colorado Economy and State Budget Outlook COLORADO SCHOOL

$gov\lcs Natalie.Mullis@state.co.$ Business Cycle business-led recovery labor market healthy

economy offers support for real estate markets Few Reasons

1 Colorado Economy and State Budget Outlook COLORADO SCHOOL FINANCE PROJECT January 23, Economic Outlook Middle Phase of this Business Cycle business-led recovery labor market healthy and improving households and banks in better shape broader economy offers support for real estate markets Few Reasons for Concern Fed will tighten the money supply global economy oil prices and capital investment 1

2 Gross Domestic Product Annualized Percent Change Fiscal Cliff Early 2014 Bad Weather Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Employment: Colorado Outpacing U.S. Index July 2009 = Colorado Nation Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Seasonally adjusted three-month moving averages. Shaded area indicates recession. Data through November Colorado data includes revisions expected by LCS. 2

3 Measures of Unemployment: Colorado Outpacing U.S. 18% 15% 12% 9% 6% 3% CO Underemployment (Dots) 10.1%, Avg. Oct 13 to Sept. 14 U.S. Underemployment (Line) U.S. Unemployment 5.8%, Nov. CO Unemployment 4.1%, Nov. 0% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Underemployment rates are 12-month moving averages. Shaded area indicates recession. Data through November Income: Colorado Outpacing U.S. 130 Personal Income Index Base 2009 Q2 = Wages & Salaries Index Base 2009 Q2 = Colorado Colorado U.S U.S Q1 2008Q3 2009Q1 2009Q3 2010Q1 2010Q3 2011Q1 2011Q3 2012Q1 2012Q3 2013Q1 2013Q3 2014Q1 2008Q1 2008Q3 2009Q1 2009Q3 2010Q1 2010Q3 2011Q1 2011Q3 2012Q1 2012Q3 2013Q1 2013Q3 2014Q1 Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Data through the third quarter of Shaded area indicates recession. 3

Retail Trade: Colorado Outpacing U.S. Index Base = June 2009 130 120 110 100 United States 4.0% year-to-date in 2014 through November Colorado 7.

4 Retail Trade: Colorado Outpacing U.S. Index Base = June United States 4.0% year-to-date in 2014 through November Colorado 7.5% year-to-date in 2014 through May 90 Jan 2008 July 2008 Jan 2009 July 2009 Jan 2010 July 2010 Jan 2011 July 2011 Sources: U.S. Census Bureau and Colorado Department of Revenue. U.S. data through November, Colorado data through May, Jan 2012 July 2012 Jan 2013 July 2013 Jan 2014 July 2014 Federal Reserve Assets & Core Inflation $5 4% Trillions of Dollars $4 $3 $2 $1 Core Inflation - Excludes Food & Energy (Left Axis) Mortgage-backed Securities U.S. Treasury Securities 3% 2% 1% Percent Change, Consumer Prices Less Food & Energy 0% Source: Federal Open Market Committee and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. 4

Colorado School Finance Project 1/23/2014 Percent Change in Employment, Second Quarter 2013-14 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, QCEW.

$2001 2002 0 Source: Colorado Oil and Gas Conservation Commission. Data though July 2014. www.colorado.gov\lcs 5$

5 Colorado School Finance Project 1/23/2014 Percent Change in Employment, Second Quarter Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, QCEW. Data through second quarter 2014 Colorado Oil Production 7 Rest of State Millions of Barrels 6 5 Northern Region (Larimer and Weld) 4 3 Western Region 2 Eastern Region Source: Colorado Oil and Gas Conservation Commission. Data though July

Oil Prices West Texas Intermediate Dollars per Barrel 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. Data through the second week of 2015.

3% Other, 26.4% Limited Gaming, 1.1% Higher Education, 36.3% Unemployment Insurance, 4.4% Workers Compensation, 0.3% Cash Funds $9.3 Billion General Fund $7.7 Billion Federal $8.4 Billion Labor 12.

6 Oil Prices West Texas Intermediate Dollars per Barrel Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. Data through the second week of Sources of State Revenue Total Revenue $25.5 Billion State Education Fund, 4.4% State Lottery, 5.4% Transportation- Related, 13.0% Resource Extraction, 2.5% Hospital Provider Fee, 6.3% Other, 26.4% Limited Gaming, 1.1% Higher Education, 36.3% Unemployment Insurance, 4.4% Workers Compensation, 0.3% Cash Funds $9.3 Billion General Fund $7.7 Billion Federal $8.4 Billion Labor 12.2% Other 8.6% Excise Taxes, 1.2% Other Taxes, 2.6% Sales and Use, 29.6% Other Revenue, 0.8% Income Taxes, 65.8% Corrections 0.1% Education 7.4% Higher Education 14.43% Trans. 7.6% Health Care 30.2% Human Services, 17.9% Source: Colorado State Controllers Office. Judicial, 0.1% 6

7 General Fund Revenue Outlook Source: Colorado State Controllers Office, LCS and OSPB projections based on the December 2014 forecast. Tight Budgets Will Persist TABOR Refunds Structural Issues Demographics 7

TABOR Refunds TABOR 7 (d) Money in excess of the limit Currently expected to begin for 2015-16 Ongoing until law change or recession TABOR 3 (c) Money in excess of specific amounts communicated to

8 TABOR Refunds TABOR 7 (d) Money in excess of the limit Currently expected to begin for Ongoing until law change or recession TABOR 3 (c) Money in excess of specific amounts communicated to voters for a specific ballot measure Proposition AA Marijuana Taxes One year only: TABOR s Election Provisions and Proposition AA September 2014 Expectations: Spending: $12.30 billion + $219 million New Taxes: $58.7 million 8

TABOR and Referendum C White bars indicate the Referendum C time out Darker green bars indicate years revenue exceeded or is expected to exceed the limit $14 $12 $10 $8 $6 $4 $2 Bars Show Revenue

Source: Colorado State Controllers Office and Legislative Council Staff.

9 TABOR and Referendum C White bars indicate the Referendum C time out Darker green bars indicate years revenue exceeded or is expected to exceed the limit $14 $12 $10 $8 $6 $4 $2 Bars Show Revenue Subject to TABOR Original TABOR Limit Referendum C Cap Current TABOR Limit Referendum C Timeout Period *Legislative Council Staff December 2014 forecast. Source: Colorado State Controllers Office and Legislative Council Staff. TABOR Refund Outlook Millions of Dollars $600 $500 $400 $300 $ Surplus ($120 million): Set Aside in Budget; Refunded in and Income Tax Year 2016 Sales Tax Refund $31.0 million $10 per taxpayer $100 Earned Income Tax Credit $89.3 million Permanent in Source: Legislative Council Staff December 2014 forecast Surplus ($620 million): Set Aside in Budget; Refunded in and Income Tax Year 2017 Sales Tax Refund: $390.7 million Estimated amount per taxpayer /A First 35%: $82 Next 27%: $109 Next 17%: $126 Next 9%: $149 Next 4%: $161 Last 7%: $259 Income Tax Rate Cut From 4.63% to 4.50% $229.7 million 9

10 What Revenue is Subject to TABOR? General Fund Revenue (Subject to TABOR) Sales & Use Taxes Individual Income Tax Corporate Income Tax Insurance Taxes All Other TABOR Exempt Revenue (Includes Cash Funds Also) Regulatory Agencies Gaming Revenue Severance Tax Hospital Provider Fee All Other General Fund 29% Cash Funds 9% TABOR-Exempt 62% Federal Funds Enterprises All Other Revenue Transportation- Related Cash Funds Revenue (Subject to TABOR) Source: Colorado State Controllers Office, TABOR Schedule of Computations for Higher Education Billions of Dollars $2.5 $2.0 $1.5 $ ARRA Academic Fees Nonresident Tuition Resident Tuition Tobacco/Gaming/ Other General Fund Source: Joint Budget Committee Staff. 10

C) 1993-94 1995-96 1997-98 1999-00 2001-02 2003-04 2005-06 2007-08 2009-10 2011-12 Revenue Under Original TABOR Limit Source: Colorado State

11 Revenue Limit: TABOR Revenue Subject to TABOR and Total Revenue $35 Billions of Dollars $30 $25 $20 $15 $10 $5 Total Revenue Surplus Refunded Voter-Approved Revenue (Includes Ref. C) Revenue Under Original TABOR Limit Source: Colorado State Controllers Office, TABOR Schedule of Computations General Fund Budget Human Services 9% Other 7% Health Care 25% K-12 Education 38% General Fund Operating Budget $8.9 billion Judicial 5% Corrections 8% Higher Education 8% 11

12 Colorado State Budget Caseload Growth & the General Fund Budget Index 01 = Medicaid Caseload State Share School Finance Higher Education Enrollment Inflation CO Population K-12 Enrollment General Fund Operating Appropriations General Fund Revenue Sources: Colorado Department of Education, U.S. Census Bureau, & Bureau of Labor Statistics, and JBC Staff. Demographics Matter During the next 15 years, the aging of the population will: Change the housing mix, likely dampening growth in housing values and the property tax base; Change income and spending patterns, likely dampening growth in the income and sales tax bases; and Increase demand for government services, applying further budget pressure on governments. 12

9 14-15 (Budgeted) Local Share Negative Factor Total Program (About 2/3 State Share) State Share Source: Joint Budget Committee, Legislative Council Staff, and Governor

13 School Finance Billions of Dollars $8 $7 $6 $5 $4 $3 $2 $1 $130M rescission $381M factor $774M factor $5.6 $5.4 $5.3 -$145 million $5.2 -$210 million (Actual) (Actual) (Actual) $1.0 Billion factor (Actual) $ (Actual) $894M factor $ (Budgeted) Local Share Negative Factor Total Program (About 2/3 State Share) State Share Source: Joint Budget Committee, Legislative Council Staff, and Governor s Office of Stat Planning and Budgeting. Per Pupil Funding $7,000 $6,500 $6,000 $6,359 $6,661 $6,874 $7,077 $6,813 $6,474 $6,479 $6,652 $7,021 $5,500 $5,000 Source: Joint Budget Committee and Legislative Council Staff. 13

14 School Finance: Governor s Proposal Assuming December LCS and OSPB Revenue Forecasts $640 $543 $240 LCS New GF $694 Neg. Factor OSPB New GF Amount GF Required $800 $600 $400 $200 $856 $539 $423 LCS New GF $894 Neg. Factor OSPB New GF Amount GF Required $1,000 $500 State Education Fund Year-End Balance LCS Revenue Forecast $ $154 $100 June 2015 June 2016 June 2017 School Finance: Governor s Proposal Assuming December LCS and OSPB Revenue Forecasts $520 $356 $240 LCS New GF Less TABOR ($694N) Netting TABOR OSPB New GF Less TABOR Amount GF Required $800 $600 $400 $200 $236 $270 $423 LCS New GF Less TABOR ($894N) Netting TABOR OSPB New GF Less TABOR Amount GF Required $1,000 $500 State Education Fund Year-End Balance LCS Revenue Forecast $ $154 $100 June 2015 June 2016 June

15 Statewide Property Tax Assessed Values Includes Tax Increment Financing Billions of Dollars $120 $100 $80 $60 $40 $ % 2.8% 11.7% -5.3% -5.1% 1.7% -0.9% 3.3% 9.1% 2.6% 7.4% Source: Colorado Division of Property Taxation *Legislative Council Staff December 2014 Forecast Statewide Property Tax Assessed Values Includes Tax Increment Financing 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% -15.0% Residential $44.6B in 2015 $2.3B more than % 14.3% 8.6% 2.2% * 2017* Source: Colorado Division of Property Taxation *Legislative Council Staff December 2014 Forecast 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% -15.0% Nonresidential $55.6B in 2015 $193 million less than % 5.2% 6.4% 2.8% * 2017* 15

16 Residential Assessment Rate 25% 20% 15% 10% Pre-TABOR Pre-Amendment 23 Mill Levy Freeze 5% 0% Actual RAR Estimated RAR Source: Colorado Department of Local Affairs, Division of Property Taxation Questions? Legislative Council Staff

Natalie Mullis Chief Economist Colorado Legislative Council Staff. Jason Schrock Chief Economist Office of State Planning and Budgeting

Natalie Mullis Chief Economist Colorado Legislative Council Staff. Jason Schrock Chief Economist Office of State Planning and Budgeting TABOR in 2015 COLORADO MUNICIPAL LEAGUE February 12, 2015 Jason Schrock Chief Economist Office of State Planning and Budgeting Sharon Eubanks Deputy Director Office of Legislative Legal Services Natalie