Confidence Reaches Four-Month Low

Transcription

1 ABC NEWS/MONEY MAGAZINE CONSUMER INDEX 3/7/04 EMBARGOED FOR RELEASE AFTER 6:30 p.m. Tuesday, March 9, 2004 Confidence Reaches Four-Month Low Discouraging economic news including near-record gasoline prices and a still-weak job market are taking a toll on consumer confidence: It starts off March at a four-month low. The ABC News/Money magazine Consumer Comfort Index, based on current ratings of the national economy, buying climate and personal finances, stands at -18 on its scale of +100 to The index has lost five points in the last two weeks on top of a seven-point drop matching its steepest on record the week of Feb. 15. From a recent high of -3 in January the index has retreated to its lowest since Nov. 9, after a short-lived recovery in the late fall and early winter. The job market isn t helping (the government reported last week that long-term unemployment in 2003 was its highest in two decades) and neither are gasoline prices. The Energy Department says the national average for a gallon is just a penny shy of its record high, up 22 cents since the start of the year, to $1.74. Confidence has been sensitive to gas prices before, and now may be no exception. ABC News/Money Magazine Poll: Consumer Confidence Since /27/02 03/03/02 04/07/02 05/12/02 06/16/02 07/21/02 08/25/02 09/29/02 11/03/02 12/08/02 01/12/03 02/16/03 03/23/03 04/27/03 06/01/03 07/06/03 08/10/03 09/14/03 10/19/03 11/23/03 12/28/03 02/01/04 03/07/

2 INDEX Just 31 percent of Americans now say the economy's in good shape, down 13 points since mid-january and nine points below its long-term average in this 18-year-old weekly survey. Thirty-seven percent call it a good time to buy things, down six points since January; and 55 percent say their own finances are OK, compared with 59 percent in January. Both are two points off their averages. ABC News/Money magazine poll Positive ratings of: This week Last week 1/18/04 18-yr. avg. National economy 31% Buying climate Personal finances Consumer Comfort Index Economic discontent is further echoed in a recent ABC News/Washington Post poll. The economy is the public s single most important election issue, and 59 percent disapprove of the way George W. Bush has handled it a career high. TREND At -18, the ABC/Money index is nine points below its long-term average, -9. It inched above average at the start of the year and held there before its Feb. 15 plunge. The last two times the index fell so steeply, in 1990 and 2001, recessions followed ABC News/Money Magazine Poll: Consumer Confidence Index Weekly Tracking Results Since December 1985 Record High 1/16/ Recession starts 3/ Recession starts 7/ /8/1985 6/8/ /8/1986 6/8/ /8/1987 6/8/ /8/1988 6/8/ /8/1989 6/8/ /8/1990 6/8/ /8/1991 6/8/ /8/1992 6/8/ /8/1993 6/8/ /8/1994 6/8/ /8/1995 6/8/ /8/1996 6/8/ /8/1997 6/8/ /8/1998 6/8/ /8/1999 6/8/ /8/2000 6/8/ /8/2001 6/8/ /8/2002 6/8/ /8/2003 ABC/Money Index Today -18 Two weeks ago -13

3 One month ago -6 Recent low -28 March 2003 Recent high +1 March, April average average average average +29 Best full year 1992 average -44 Worst full year Jan. 16, Record high Feb. 9, Record low Average since 12/85-9 GROUPS As usual, confidence is higher among better-off Americans. The index is +18 among higher-income people while -60 among those with the lowest incomes, -3 among college graduates while -52 among high-school dropouts, -15 among whites but -30 among blacks and -10 among men while -26 among women. Huge partisan differences continue. The index is +32 among Republicans, -24 among independents and -43 among Democrats. Here's a closer look at the three components of the ABC/Money index: ABC News/Money Magazine Poll: Positive Ratings of Individual Gauges Since December Personal Finances Buying Climate National Economy 0 06/08/86 11/30/86 05/24/87 11/15/87 05/08/88 10/30/88 04/30/89 10/22/89 04/15/90 10/07/90 03/31/91 09/22/91 03/15/92 09/06/92 02/28/93 08/22/93 02/13/94 08/07/94 01/29/95 07/23/95 01/14/96 07/07/96 12/29/96 06/22/97 12/14/97 06/07/98 11/29/98 05/23/99 11/14/99 05/07/00 10/29/00 04/22/01 10/14/01 04/07/02 09/29/02 03/23/03 09/14/03 03/07/04 NATIONAL ECONOMY Thirty-one percent of Americans rate the nation's economy as excellent or good; it was 33 percent last week. The highest was 80 percent Jan. 16, The lowest was seven percent in late 1991 and early 1992.

4 Pos. NET Excel. Good Neg. NET Not good Poor This week Avg. since 12/ PERSONAL FINANCES Fifty-five percent rate their own finances as excellent or good; it was 56 percent last week. The best was 70 percent Aug. 30, 1998, and matched in January The worst was 42 percent March 14, Pos. NET Excel. Good Neg. NET Not good Poor This week Avg. since 12/ BUYING CLIMATE Thirty-seven percent say it's an excellent or good time to buy things, unchanged from last week. The best was 57 percent Jan. 16, The worst was 20 percent in fall Pos. NET Excel. Good Neg. net Not good Poor This week Avg. since 12/ METHODOLOGY - The ABC News/Money magazine Consumer Comfort Index represents a rolling average based on telephone interviews with a random sample of about 1,000 adults nationwide each month. This week's results are based on 1,000 interviews in the month ending March 7, 2004, and have an error margin of plus or minus three percentage points. Field work by ICR-International Communications Research of Media, Pa. The ABC/Money index is derived by subtracting the negative response to each index question from the positive response to that question. The three resulting numbers are then added and divided by three. The index can range from +100 (everyone positive on all three measures) to -100 (all negative on all three measures). The survey began in December Analysis by Dalia Sussman. ABC News polls can be found at ABCNEWS.com on the Internet, at: Media contact: Cathie Levine, (212) or Lisa Finkel, (212)

5 03/07/04 This Last 4 Wks 3 Mo. 1 Yr. 12 Mo 12 Mo 12 Mo Week Week Ago Ago Ago High Low Avg Group GENERAL POPULATION: Overall Index State of Economy Personal Finances Buying Climate OVERALL INDEX BY DEMOGRAPHIC GROUPS Sex: Men Women Age: Income: Under $15K $15K To $24.9K $25K To $39.9K $40K To $49.9K Over $50K Region: Northeast Midwest South West Race: White Black Politics: Republican Democrat Independent Education: < High School High Sch. Grad College Home: Own Rent Marital Status: Single Married Sep/Wid/Div Employ. Status: Full-Time Part-Time Not Employed ***END***

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