Confidence and Oil Prices: A Potentially Volatile Mix

Transcription

1 ABC NEWS/MONEY MAGAZINE CONSUMER INDEX 9/26/04 EMBARGOED FOR RELEASE AFTER 6:30 p.m. Tuesday, Sept. 28, 2004 Confidence and Oil Prices: A Potentially Volatile Mix Rising oil prices haven t hit consumer confidence yet. This week s ABC News/Money magazine Consumer Comfort Index is unchanged at -9 on its scale of +100 to -100, matching its average in weekly polls since But oil prices could matter: Sometimes, when they ve risen before, confidence has dropped. If that were to occur now, it could have political implications: The economy tops the list as the most important issue in the presidential election, cited by 28 percent of registered voters in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll. Voters currently trust George W. Bush over John Kerry by a narrow percent margin to handle the economy. The question is where that might go if economic views were to sour. ABC News/Money Magazine Poll: Consumer Confidence /04/04 01/18/04 02/01/04 02/15/04 02/29/04 03/14/04 03/28/04 04/11/04 04/25/04 05/09/04 05/23/04 06/06/04 06/20/04 07/04/04 07/18/04 08/01/04 08/15/04 08/29/04 09/12/04 09/26/04 GAS The U.S. Department of Energy on Monday reported a five-cent increase in the past week in the average price of a gallon of regular unleaded gasoline. The rise has been

2 attributed to worldwide demand, a hurricane-caused decrease in oil production in the Gulf of Mexico and irregular production in Iraq and other OPEC countries. Confidence does seem vulnerable to gasoline price hikes, though not in all cases. The last time gas prices spiked, in late May, the ABC/Money index fell to a recent low of -20 by mid-june. Confidence did not fall when gas prices jumped in August 2003, but did when they rose earlier in 2003, in advance of the Iraq war. PARTY DIVISION Still, other factors also influence confidence, and a powerful one this season is partisanship. It s not only higher than usual, but also higher than it s been in recent election years. The ABC/Money index today stands at +39 among Republicans, but -37 among Democrats and -22 among independents. That huge 76-point gap between Democrats and Republicans is nearly twice what it was at this time in 1992, as well as vastly higher than in September 1996 or ABC/Money Index Republicans Democrats Independents Rep-Dem diff 9/26/ /24/ /29/ /27/ avg Consumer Confidence and Party ID ABC News/Money magazine poll /26/2004 Average since ' Democrats Independents Republicans

3 INDEX The ABC/Money index has been fairly stable lately, hovering between -6 and - 11 since late June, after recovering from that -20 reading. Its best this year was -3 in mid- January; its worst, -22 in mid-march. The index is based on Americans views of the national economy, their personal finances and the buying climate. This week 36 percent rate the economy positively, four points off the long-term average and an insignificant change from last week; 39 percent say it s a good time to buy things, matching the average; and 61 percent rate their own finances positively; the average is 57 percent. ABC News/Money magazine poll Positive ratings of: This week June avg. 18-yr. avg. National economy 36% Buying climate Personal finances Consumer Comfort Index ABC News/Money Magazine Poll: Consumer Confidence Index Weekly Tracking Results Since December 1985 Record High 1/16/ Recession starts 3/ Recession starts 7/ /8/ /8/ /8/ /8/ /8/ /8/ /8/ /8/ /8/ /8/ /8/ /8/ /8/ /8/ /8/ /8/ /8/ /8/ /8/2003 TREND The index has ranged from a high of +38 in January 2000 to a low of -50 in February Its worst annual average was -44 in Last year it averaged -19, much worse than the best yearly average of +29 in This year so far it's averaged -12. ABC/Money Index Today -9 Latest low -20 June 13 Recent high -3 January average -12 To date 2003 average -19

4 2002 average average average +29 Best full year 1992 average -44 Worst full year Jan. 16, Record high Feb. 9, Record low Average since 12/85-9 GROUPS Confidence, as usual, is stronger among better-off Americans. The index is +21 among higher-income people while -41 among those with the lowest incomes, +4 among college graduates while -37 among high-school dropouts, -6 among whites but -28 among blacks and +1 among men but -18 among women. Here's a closer look at the three components of the ABC/Money index: NATIONAL ECONOMY Thirty-six percent of Americans rate the U.S. economy as excellent or good; it was 37 percent last week. The highest was 80 percent on Jan. 16, The lowest was seven percent in late 1991 and early Pos. NET Excel. Good Neg. NET Not good Poor This week Avg. since 12/ PERSONAL FINANCES Sixty-one percent see their own finances as excellent or good; it was 59 percent last week. The best was 70 percent on Aug. 30, 1998, matched in January The worst was 42 percent on March 14, Pos. NET Excel. Good Neg. NET Not good Poor This week Avg. since 12/ BUYING CLIMATE Thirty-nine percent say it's an excellent or good time to buy things; it was 40 percent last week. The best was 57 percent on Jan. 16, The worst was 20 percent in fall Pos. NET Excel. Good Neg. net Not good Poor This week Avg. since 12/ METHODOLOGY - The ABC News/Money magazine Consumer Comfort Index represents a rolling average based on telephone interviews with a random sample of about 1,000 adults nationwide each month. This week's results are based on 1,000 interviews in the four weeks ending Sept. 26, 2004, and have an error margin of plus or minus three percentage points. Field work by ICR-International Communications Research of Media, Pa. The ABC/Money index is derived by subtracting the negative response to each index question from the positive response to that question. The three resulting numbers are then

5 added and divided by three. The index can range from +100 (everyone positive on all three measures) to -100 (all negative on all three measures). The survey began in December Analysis by Andres Martinez. ABC News polls can be found online at Media contact: Cathie Levine, (212) or Lisa Finkel, (212)

6 09/26/04 This Last 4 Wks 3 Mo. 1 Yr. 12 Mo 12 Mo 12 Mo Week Week Ago Ago Ago High Low Avg Group GENERAL POPULATION: Overall Index State of Economy Personal Finances Buying Climate OVERALL INDEX BY DEMOGRAPHIC GROUPS Sex: Men Women Age: Income: Under $15K $15K To $24.9K $25K To $39.9K $40K To $49.9K Over $50K $50K To $74.9K N/A N/A N/A N/A $75K To $99.9K N/A N/A N/A N/A Over $100K N/A N/A N/A N/A Region: Northeast Midwest South West Race: White Black Politics: Republican Democrat Independent Education: < High School High Sch. Grad College Home: Own Rent Marital Status: Single Married Sep/Wid/Div Employ. Status: Full-Time Part-Time Not Employed