József Hegedüs: New housing policies in CEE? Divergence or convergence?

Transcription

1 József Hegedüs: New housing policies in CEE? Divergence or convergence? Housing Market Challenges in Europe and the US any solutions available? Wien, September 29, 2008 ÖNB workshop Metropolitan Research Institute 1

2 Main points of my contribution Housing system in CEE had a common past ( path dependence ) The transition was affected by common regional challenges Housing policy responses in 90s were very similar New challenges and main housing policy responses in this decade start of divergence Main factors explaining the differences - the future? Metropolitan Research Institute 2

3 Eastern European Housing model- reconsidered EEHM was based on a society where the state (political party) integrated the society modified by (quasi) market relations operational logic the same, but. Tenure structure very different Institutional structure housing management, housing finance, role of self-help, etc. Output: different housing conditions (though not easy to measure) Metropolitan Research Institute 3

4 Main trends: privatization % 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% other owner-occupied co-operative public rental 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% other owner-occupied co-operative public rental CEE-5 BS-3 SEE-7 CEE-5 BS-3 SEE-7 Metropolitan Research Institute 4

5 Challenges after the transition Fiscal pressure cutting subsidies (new housing was among the first targets) Transitional recession: huge unemployment (early retirement, hidden unemployment), income insecurity But no demographic pressure: No urbanization or de-urbanization (e.g Romania), migration trends!!! Metropolitan Research Institute 5

6 Housing policy response in the 90s very similar Housing privatization -- condominium problem Privatization and decentralization: construction industry and industry for building material transfer of public service companies (water, district heating, etc.) Housing finance crisis and its consequence on housing output Metropolitan Research Institute 6

7 Tenure structure and age of the head of the household (2006, Hungary) 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% owner oc c upied public rental private rental Metropolitan Research Institute 7

8 New challenges after stabilization in 2000s Demand for new housing investments emerging income differences Need for social housing: affordability to pay the cost of housing and access to housing Housing deterioration renovation of the stock (especially multi-unit buildings) is needed Metropolitan Research Institute 8

9 Housing policy responses in CEE countries Housing finance: mortgage programs (legal framework and subsidies) Housing renovation (especially urban housing areas, but segregated settlements are a problem as well) Social housing programs Metropolitan Research Institute 9

10 Emerging differences among CEE countries Privatization of the banking sector different mortgage systems (funding, products, etc.) The effect of housing restitution and privatization (regulated private rental sector, cooperatives, etc.) Fiscal and political decentralization: role of local government and public service companies Economic and social recovery (increase of GDP, taxation, etc. middle class issue) Metropolitan Research Institute 10

11 Outstanding housing loan as % of GDP in 2005 Residential Debt to GDP Ratio (%) EU 15 Estonia Latvia Croatia Lithuania Hungary Slovakia Czech Republic Poland Slovenia Bulgaria Romania Serbia Russia Ukraine Metropolitan Research Institute 11

12 Mortgage and age groups (2006, Hungary) 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Do you have mortgage? L oan to value ratio (if yes ) Metropolitan Research Institute 12

13 Constraints on expanding the social rental sector Local government sector No monitoring, they are under pressure from the middle class (same as privatization pressure) Financial dis-incentives (loss and no earmarked grants) in the framework of intergovernmental fiscal relations Private sector involvement The unpredictability of the market (rent arrears, tenure rights, etc) makes big investors cautious Individual owners are scared of the tax consequence (problem of informal sector) Structure of housing finance subsidies and taxes user cost problem ( It is cheaper to buy than rent ) Lack of political commitment rhetoric versus budget expenditures Metropolitan Research Institute 13

14 Country experiences: no clear strategy Different solutions were chosen, influenced by: existing legal and institutional background (legacy of the old system) International experiences: private institutions (contract savings, cooperatives, etc.), donor agencies the dynamics of local politics and macroeconomic conditions Different outcomes: Innovative solutions without policy support Policy support for unsustainable model Windfall effects: lack of capacity to make public choices Metropolitan Research Institute 14