EUROCONTROL Medium-Term Forecast of Service Units: September 2010

Transcription

1 EUROCONTROL Medium-Term Forecast of Service Units: September 2010 Figure 1. Average annual growth of service units in Summary: This report presents the first medium-term forecast of service units in Europe 1 prepared by Eurocontrol\STATFOR. The forecast covers yearly development of service units in EU27 States plus Norway and Switzerland in The forecast is based on actual data up to July 2010 and on the September 2010 update of EUROCONTROL Medium-Term Flight Forecast. The total service units in Europe are forecast to reach around 115 millions in 2014, 17% above the 1 Here Europe refers to States covered by the performance scheme Regulation (EC) No 691/2010 of 29 July STATFOR/Doc406 v1.0 8/9/10

2 98 millions recorded in The growth is faster in the early years, mainly in 2011 which picks up from the relatively low 2009 and 2010, and slows down in the later years averaging at 3.2% annually for This is very close to the annual average growth in flights in Europe as forecast by the medium-term flight forecast. However, the flight and service unit forecasts differ more at a State level. Being the first of its kind, the results presented here should be treated with care noting in particular the relatively short history of available data for the modelling. Comments are welcome at statfor.info@eurocontrol.int. STATFOR/Doc406 v1.0 Page:2

3 1. INTRODUCTION This report presents the first EUROCONTROL Medium-Term Forecast of Service Units (MT-SUF) prepared by STATFOR (Statistics and Forecast Service of Eurocontrol). The forecast covers yearly development of service units in Europe as specified for EU-wide performance target setting, in The forecast shall serve the ATM stakeholders as an independent view of future changes in service units in Europe. It can also assist the States when establishing unit rates for route charges, and serve as a reference when assessing consistency between European Union-wide and local performance targets. The forecast method and tool have been developed in the first half of 2010 and they have been first used for this report. Users should note that the forecast modelling as well as the method testing and results validation was based on relatively short history of data (starting mostly in January 2003) which did not allow full assessment of the forecast performance for the complete 5-year horizon. This forecast is based on actual service units and traffic data up to July 2010 and on the September 2010 update of EUROCONTROL Medium-Term Flight Forecast 2 (MTF10b). It shall be updated in February A revised EUROCONTROL Short-Term Forecast of Service Units for States participating in the Multilateral Route Charge System will be issued as planned on 22 September 2010, in support of the Enlarged Committee meeting in November. 2. FORECASTING METHODOLOGY Figure 2: Medium-term service units forecast method Medium-Term Flights Forecast (MTF) Short-Term Service Units Forecast (ST-SUF) Historic distance Historic MTOW Forecast distance factors Forecast weight factors Combine with MTF flights MT service units forecast Align with ST- SUF Medium-Term Service Units Forecast (MT-SUF) The medium-term forecast of service units gives a 5-years-ahead outlook of the total service units for States in Europe. The method adopts the structure for calculating the en route service units in reality: it combines forecasts of distance factors and weight factors with the number of flights as forecast by the latest EUROCONTROL Medium-Term Forecast of flight movements, thus making these two forecasts compatible. The future distance and weight factors are derived from observed historical trends in average flown distance and average MTOW of aircraft on arrivals, departures, internals and overflights in each charging area. The MT-SUF also makes use of results of a short-term forecast of service units. The short-term forecast, which is based on time-series modelling of trends and seasonal and cyclical patterns in actual monthly service units, covers the period of the next two years and is usually better in capturing latest developments and giving the short-term outlook. The medium-term forecast of service units covers charging areas in Europe as specified in the geographical scope of the EU-wide performance target setting. This has been agreed between Eurocontrol and the European Commission 3 and covers the 27 EU States plus Norway and Switzerland 4. This is different from what is usually referred to as Europe in STATFOR reports where the concept of 2 EUROCONTROL Medium-Term Forecast Update, Flight Movements , EUROCONTROL\STATFOR, September Performance Scheme: Initial EU-wide Targets Proposals, CONSULTATION Document, EUROCONTROL\PRC, 2 August 2010 section ICAO Oceanic airspace regions Bodø (Norway), NOTA and SOTA (Ireland) and Canaries FIR are also included. Santa Maria FIR being operationally very different from the other included areas is not covered. STATFOR/Doc406 v1.0 Page:3

4 Eurocontrol Statistical Reference Area is used (see e.g. Annex B of the MTF10b report 2 ). For managing risk related to future traffic uncertainty, in addition to a base central figure the forecast produces also high and low values. Overall, the future total service units can be expected to be between these about half of the time. The EUROCONTROL forecast of service units is impartial in that it uses the same method for all the States. 3. PAST EVOLUTION OF TOTAL SERVICE UNITS Total service units (TSUs) in Europe in 2009 were below the 2008 values throughout the whole year, ending annually around 6.5% lower. The final months of 2009 showed already some signs of recovery and the TSUs crawled above the levels of one year ago in the beginning of April was marked by the effects traffic disturbance due to Eyjafjallajökull volcano ash safety concerns. Overall, around 100,000 flights were cancelled and the total service units in Europe dropped to more than 10% below April The following three months saw a stronger growth in traffic with the service units surpassing the levels from a year ago by around 4%-5% and finally nearing the 2008 totals in July Figure 3: Evolution of total service units in Europe 4. FORECAST RESULTS Total service units in Europe in 2014 are forecast to be about 17% higher than in 2009, reaching in total around 115 millions compared to 98 millions in This is an average annual growth of around 3.2% (±1.4%). The low and high range is between 107 and 123 million service units in 2014, which is around 9% to 25% more than in The growth is not stable across the forecast period. The yearly total of TSUs in 2010 is forecast to end up 2.6% above the weak The following year will see a stronger recovery with a growth of around 5.0%, slowing down again in the later years to somewhat above 2.5% growth per year. STATFOR/Doc406 v1.0 Page:4

5 Figure 4: Summary of forecast of total service units in Europe Total service units (thousands) 2005* 2006* 2007* 2008** /09 Total Growth H , , , , ,050 25% B 89,897 93,853 99, ,934 98, , , , , ,610 17% L , , , , ,679 9% Annual growth H % 7.9% 4.2% 3.6% 3.9% 4.6% B 5.2% 4.4% 6.2% 1.7% -6.5% 2.6% 5.0% 2.9% 2.6% 2.7% 3.2% L % 1.9% 1.8% 1.6% 1.7% 1.7% * Totals for Europe in do not include Poland and Lithuania for which data for these years are not available. ** Total for Europe in 2008 includes TSUs of Poland and Lithuania (3,614 thousand). The 2008 growth figure is adjusted for this increase. The forecast growth in service units is very close to the growth in flights of the September 2010 update of the MTF 2 (3.3% average annual growth in ). Indeed, the gray lines in Figure 5 showing the total service units estimated simply from the growth in flights are almost indiscernible from the blue lines of the herein presented service units forecast. Though this is true on the total European level, it is not always the case at a State level where the forecasts are often further apart. This is the effect of future changes in flights characteristics (in terms of average distance and weight) and the proportion of departures, arrivals, internals and overflights in each charging area. The forecast results per State are shown in Figure 1 and listed in detail in Annex A. Figure 5: Comparison of forecast of service units in Europe with estimates based on forecast growth in flights Note: In this plot, totals for include estimated TSUs in Poland and Lithuania. STATFOR/Doc406 v1.0 Page:5

6 A. Forecast results per State This annex shows the EUROCONTROL medium-term forecast of service units in Europe per individual charging area. Forecasts for Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland must be treated with extra care as they are based on a limited set of historical data. Figure 6: Total service units per State and increase in total service units between 2009 and 2014 Austria Total service units (thousands) Belgium/Luxembourg Bulgaria Canary Islands Cyprus Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Ireland / 2009 Total Growth H ,517 2,743 2,873 2,982 3,101 28% B 2,235 2,342 2,509 2,566 2,424 2,477 2,573 2,657 2,734 2,814 16% L ,437 2,398 2,445 2,491 2,543 5% H ,119 2,301 2,413 2,520 2,640 27% B 1,928 2,080 2,184 2,220 2,079 2,099 2,222 2,303 2,379 2,459 18% L ,080 2,136 2,191 2,241 2,287 10% H ,878 2,043 2,163 2,256 2,365 32% B 1,436 1,453 1,624 1,747 1,798 1,848 1,941 2,022 2,099 2,165 20% L ,817 1,833 1,883 1,934 1,987 11% H ,558 1,667 1,720 1,773 1,836 23% B 1,550 1,589 1,691 1,713 1,492 1,543 1,619 1,645 1,677 1,716 15% L ,527 1,562 1,567 1,579 1,599 7% H ,371 1,478 1,573 1,654 1,741 37% B 1,008 1,057 1,178 1,311 1,273 1,361 1,435 1,505 1,570 1,634 28% L ,351 1,388 1,439 1,486 1,536 21% H ,192 2,371 2,486 2,578 2,686 33% B 1,867 1,896 1,940 2,019 2,023 2,164 2,250 2,328 2,393 2,465 22% L ,136 2,124 2,175 2,215 2,261 12% H ,442 1,562 1,619 1,667 1,719 27% B 1,326 1,395 1,480 1,474 1,359 1,429 1,521 1,563 1,596 1,633 20% L ,417 1,476 1,505 1,528 1,550 14% H % B % L % H % B % L % H ,921 18,047 18,650 19,150 19,712 17% B 16,270 16,756 17,995 18,034 16,780 16,781 17,556 17,931 18,254 18,602 11% L ,638 17,013 17,198 17,342 17,509 4% H ,301 13,196 13,774 14,295 14,891 25% B 11,109 11,712 12,419 12,749 11,913 12,212 12,864 13,273 13,652 14,070 18% L ,122 12,500 12,772 13,021 13,290 12% H ,476 4,828 5,029 5,204 5,389 30% B 3,704 3,754 4,049 4,258 4,139 4,428 4,609 4,738 4,866 4,991 21% L ,380 4,386 4,456 4,534 4,619 12% H ,140 2,295 2,399 2,488 2,587 27% B 2,003 2,063 2,104 2,092 2,038 2,109 2,199 2,269 2,335 2,401 18% L ,078 2,101 2,145 2,187 2,231 9% H ,628 3,916 4,115 4,310 4,529 27% B 3,000 3,597 3,822 3,823 3,561 3,591 3,792 3,928 4,051 4,188 18% L ,553 3,663 3,752 3,825 3,905 10% STATFOR/Doc406 v1.0 Page:6

7 Italy Total service units (thousands) / 2009 Total Growth H ,680 9,434 9,877 10,294 10,770 32% B 7,833 8,049 8,620 8,660 8,145 8,591 9,042 9,334 9,614 9,914 22% Latvia L ,499 8,624 8,779 8,931 9,100 12% H % B % Lisbon FIR L % H ,667 2,853 2,926 2,994 3,070 23% B 2,405 2,516 2,631 2,677 2,501 2,640 2,738 2,766 2,795 2,819 13% Lithuania L ,612 2,614 2,606 2,591 2,583 3% H % B % Malta L % H % B % Netherlands L % H ,479 2,672 2,763 2,850 2,948 22% B 2,388 2,518 2,639 2,621 2,426 2,459 2,598 2,665 2,726 2,795 15% Norway L ,439 2,519 2,564 2,608 2,652 9% H ,573 1,665 1,728 1,780 1,836 23% B 1,315 1,342 1,420 1,537 1,495 1,553 1,607 1,649 1,682 1,718 15% Poland L ,534 1,547 1,570 1,587 1,606 7% H ,389 3,807 3,995 4,163 4,360 41% B 3,230 3,092 3,328 3,585 3,708 3,829 3,964 28% Romania L ,267 3,358 3,438 3,518 3,607 17% H ,433 3,780 3,985 4,160 4,360 39% B 3,286 3,300 3,236 3,240 3,133 3,389 3,587 3,730 3,864 4,000 28% Slovakia L ,345 3,390 3,483 3,576 3,675 17% H ,031 1,075 1,125 47% B ,028 34% Slovenia L % H % B % Spain L % H ,725 9,406 9,767 10,072 10,439 25% B 8,101 8,518 9,244 9,129 8,358 8,620 9,017 9,225 9,443 9,672 16% Sweden L ,515 8,597 8,688 8,786 8,904 7% H ,972 3,197 3,354 3,472 3,601 24% B 2,751 2,930 3,094 3,271 2,906 2,944 3,103 3,224 3,308 3,397 17% Switzerland L ,916 3,005 3,096 3,153 3,209 10% H ,442 1,571 1,641 1,703 1,769 27% B 1,323 1,368 1,452 1,472 1,396 1,430 1,523 1,570 1,614 1,662 19% UK L ,419 1,469 1,497 1,525 1,558 12% H ,644 10,283 10,653 10,975 11,326 14% B 10,047 10,426 10,896 11,044 9,914 9,539 9,931 10,188 10,395 10,629 7% Total L ,435 9,562 9,727 9,854 9,990 1% H , , , , ,050 25% B 89,897 93,853 99, ,934 98, , , , , ,610 17% L , , , , ,679 9% * Totals for Europe in do not include Poland and Lithuania for which data for these years are not available. ** Total for Europe in 2008 includes TSUs of Poland and Lithuania (3,614 thousand). STATFOR/Doc406 v1.0 Page:7

8 Figure 7: Annual growth in total service units per State and average annual growth Annual growth Austria Belgium/Luxembourg Bulgaria Canary Islands Cyprus Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Ireland Italy Latvia * AAGR 2014/ 2009 H % 9.0% 4.7% 3.8% 4.0% 5.1% B 11.6% 4.8% 7.1% 2.3% -5.5% 2.2% 3.9% 3.3% 2.9% 2.9% 3.0% L % -1.6% 2.0% 1.9% 2.1% 1.0% H % 8.6% 4.9% 4.4% 4.8% 4.9% B 7.9% 7.9% 5.0% 1.7% -6.4% 1.0% 5.8% 3.7% 3.3% 3.4% 3.4% L % 2.7% 2.6% 2.3% 2.1% 1.9% H % 8.8% 5.9% 4.3% 4.8% 5.6% B 6.1% 1.2% 11.8% 7.5% 3.0% 2.7% 5.1% 4.2% 3.8% 3.2% 3.8% L % 0.9% 2.8% 2.7% 2.8% 2.0% H % 7.0% 3.2% 3.1% 3.6% 4.2% B 5.3% 2.5% 6.4% 1.3% -12.9% 3.4% 4.9% 1.6% 1.9% 2.3% 2.8% L % 2.3% 0.3% 0.8% 1.3% 1.4% H % 7.9% 6.4% 5.1% 5.3% 6.5% B 1.4% 4.9% 11.4% 11.3% -2.9% 6.9% 5.4% 4.9% 4.3% 4.0% 5.1% L % 2.8% 3.6% 3.3% 3.3% 3.8% H % 8.2% 4.8% 3.7% 4.2% 5.8% B 7.1% 1.5% 2.3% 4.1% 0.2% 7.0% 4.0% 3.5% 2.8% 3.0% 4.0% L % -0.5% 2.4% 1.8% 2.1% 2.3% H % 8.3% 3.6% 3.0% 3.1% 4.8% B 0.4% 5.2% 6.1% -0.4% -7.8% 5.2% 6.4% 2.7% 2.1% 2.3% 3.7% L % 4.2% 2.0% 1.5% 1.5% 2.7% H % 8.5% 5.2% 5.3% 5.3% 6.0% B 3.9% 9.4% 13.8% 4.5% -2.9% 4.1% 4.6% 3.6% 4.0% 4.0% 4.1% L % 0.4% 2.3% 2.9% 2.9% 2.2% H % 8.9% 4.5% 3.8% 3.9% 4.4% B 3.5% 1.4% 1.0% 6.1% -8.1% 0.0% 5.7% 3.2% 2.6% 2.7% 2.9% L % 2.3% 2.2% 1.6% 1.6% 1.3% H % 6.7% 3.3% 2.7% 2.9% 3.3% B 3.1% 3.0% 7.4% 0.2% -7.0% 0.0% 4.6% 2.1% 1.8% 1.9% 2.1% L % 2.3% 1.1% 0.8% 1.0% 0.9% H % 7.3% 4.4% 3.8% 4.2% 4.6% B 7.7% 5.4% 6.0% 2.7% -6.6% 2.5% 5.3% 3.2% 2.9% 3.1% 3.4% L % 3.1% 2.2% 2.0% 2.1% 2.2% H % 7.8% 4.2% 3.5% 3.6% 5.4% B 3.1% 1.4% 7.9% 5.2% -2.8% 7.0% 4.1% 2.8% 2.7% 2.6% 3.8% L % 0.1% 1.6% 1.8% 1.9% 2.2% H % 7.3% 4.5% 3.7% 4.0% 4.9% B 7.5% 3.0% 2.0% -0.6% -2.6% 3.4% 4.3% 3.2% 2.9% 2.8% 3.3% L % 1.1% 2.1% 2.0% 2.0% 1.8% H % 7.9% 5.1% 4.7% 5.1% 4.9% B 6.3% 19.9% 6.3% 0.0% -6.9% 0.8% 5.6% 3.6% 3.1% 3.4% 3.3% L % 3.1% 2.4% 2.0% 2.1% 1.9% H % 8.7% 4.7% 4.2% 4.6% 5.7% B 1.1% 2.8% 7.1% 0.5% -6.0% 5.5% 5.3% 3.2% 3.0% 3.1% 4.0% L % 1.5% 1.8% 1.7% 1.9% 2.2% H % 12.2% 4.6% 5.4% 5.7% 6.4% B 4.2% 11.0% 14.8% 4.7% -9.1% 3.0% 7.6% 3.3% 4.5% 4.6% 4.6% L % 2.6% 2.4% 3.7% 3.6% 2.8% STATFOR/Doc406 v1.0 Page:8

9 Lisbon FIR Annual growth * AAGR 2014/ 2009 H % 7.0% 2.6% 2.3% 2.5% 4.2% B 2.0% 4.6% 4.6% 1.7% -6.6% 5.5% 3.7% 1.0% 1.0% 0.8% 2.4% Lithuania L % 0.1% -0.3% -0.6% -0.3% 0.6% H % 14.0% 5.0% 5.4% 5.4% 8.3% B % 9.9% 8.4% 3.5% 4.2% 4.2% 6.0% Malta L % 2.4% 2.3% 3.2% 3.1% 3.8% H % 12.3% 7.7% 7.0% 6.9% 9.4% B -0.9% 4.8% 15.5% 11.9% -1.4% 11.5% 8.5% 5.3% 5.0% 4.7% 7.0% Netherlands L % 4.4% 3.5% 3.0% 2.9% 4.7% H % 7.8% 3.4% 3.1% 3.4% 4.0% B 5.4% 5.4% 4.8% -0.7% -7.5% 1.4% 5.7% 2.5% 2.3% 2.5% 2.9% Norway L % 3.3% 1.8% 1.7% 1.7% 1.8% H % 5.9% 3.8% 3.0% 3.2% 4.2% B 5.7% 2.0% 5.8% 8.3% -2.8% 3.9% 3.5% 2.6% 2.0% 2.1% 2.8% Poland L % 0.9% 1.5% 1.1% 1.2% 1.5% H % 12.3% 4.9% 4.2% 4.7% 7.1% B % 7.6% 7.7% 3.4% 3.2% 3.5% 5.1% Romania L % 2.8% 2.4% 2.3% 2.5% 3.1% H % 10.1% 5.4% 4.4% 4.8% 6.8% B 9.3% 0.4% -1.9% 0.1% -3.3% 8.2% 5.8% 4.0% 3.6% 3.5% 5.0% Slovakia L % 1.3% 2.8% 2.7% 2.8% 3.2% H % 14.0% 5.2% 4.3% 4.7% 7.9% B 9.8% 5.3% -2.2% 6.1% 0.7% 10.7% 9.7% 3.7% 3.1% 3.1% 6.0% Slovenia L % 5.3% 2.5% 1.9% 1.8% 4.1% H % 11.8% 5.8% 4.4% 4.4% 7.6% B 17.7% 5.9% 17.7% 8.2% -3.1% 9.8% 7.3% 4.2% 3.7% 3.4% 5.7% Spain L % 2.6% 2.7% 2.6% 2.7% 3.7% H % 7.8% 3.8% 3.1% 3.6% 4.5% B 7.7% 5.1% 8.5% -1.3% -8.4% 3.1% 4.6% 2.3% 2.4% 2.4% 3.0% Sweden L % 1.0% 1.1% 1.1% 1.3% 1.3% H % 7.6% 4.9% 3.5% 3.7% 4.4% B 2.9% 6.5% 5.6% 5.7% -11.2% 1.3% 5.4% 3.9% 2.6% 2.7% 3.2% Switzerland L % 3.0% 3.1% 1.8% 1.8% 2.0% H % 9.0% 4.4% 3.8% 3.9% 4.8% B 5.2% 3.4% 6.1% 1.4% -5.1% 2.4% 6.4% 3.1% 2.8% 2.9% 3.5% UK L % 3.6% 1.9% 1.8% 2.1% 2.2% H % 6.6% 3.6% 3.0% 3.2% 2.7% B 5.5% 3.8% 4.5% 1.4% -10.2% -3.8% 4.1% 2.6% 2.0% 2.2% 1.4% Total L % 1.3% 1.7% 1.3% 1.4% 0.2% H % 7.9% 4.2% 3.6% 3.9% 4.6% B 5.2% 4.4% 6.2% 1.7% -6.5% 2.6% 5.0% 2.9% 2.6% 2.7% 3.2% L % 1.9% 1.8% 1.6% 1.7% 1.7% * The 2008 growth figure for Europe is adjusted for increase in TSUs due to Poland and Lithuania (3,614 thousand) newly included into the total. STATFOR/Doc406 v1.0 Page:9

10 European Organisation for the Safety of Air Navigation (EUROCONTROL) 2010 This document is published by EUROCONTROL in the interests of exchange of information. It may be copied in whole or in part, providing that the copyright notice and disclaimer are included. The information contained in this document may not be modified without prior written permission from EUROCONTROL. EUROCONTROL makes no warranty, either implied or express, for the information contained in this document, neither does it assume any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness or usefulness of this information. For further information please contact, STATFOR, the EUROCONTROL Statistics and Forecast Service STATFOR, the EUROCONTROL Statistics and Forecast Service is ISO 9001:2008 certified. STATFOR/Doc406 v1.0 Page:10