Global Data Watch 9-13 October 9 October 2017

Transcription

1 Economic Research The Week Ahead: US inflation and Spanish developments in the spotlight US: September FOMC minutes and inflation data The upcoming week will be busy with minutes of the September FOMC, CPI inflation and retail sales data. The impact of the hurricanes is expected to continue to distort the data, as was the case for September NFPs (page 3). Consensus forecasts inflation to pick up sharply to.6% m-o-m in September (August:.4%) mainly due to a spike in energy prices during and after Hurricane Harvey. However, core inflation is expected to be muted and steady at.2% m-o-m. On the retail side, September headline sales growth is envisaged to rebound sharply to 1.6% m-o-m (August: -.2%) due to the rebuilding efforts. Particularly, the increase in sales of building materials and household furnishings along with a pick-up in recent auto sales are seen as major drivers. Meanwhile, markets will look to gauge the tone of the FOMC minutes, after the post-meeting communication was more hawkish than expected. Overall, we believe that they will continue to point to a gradual interest rate hiking environment despite the recent weaker inflation outlook. Globally, the developments in Catalonia and Spain will be critical and could have a pronounced impact on markets. The Catalonian government is convening on 1 October, and markets will be watching to see if it unilaterally declares independence. Economics Team Monica Malik, Ph.D. Chief Economist +971 () Monica.Malik@ Thirumalai Nagesh Economist +971 () Thirumalainagesh.Venkatesh@ Contents I. Recent Events and Data Releases 2 II. Economic Calendar 8 Emerging Markets: China data and India CPI China s September monetary and trade data due this week is likely to remain solid ahead of the important Communist Party Congress meeting. China s trade data is expected to pick up further in September, due to a rise in external demand and some support from base effects. Consensus estimates export growth bounced back to 9.8% y-o-y in September (August: 5.6%), while imports growth is seen accelerating to 15.2% y-o-y. The PBOC s recent adjustments to the Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR), to increase liquidity to the SME sector, are likely to have a positive effect on monetary data but only from October. Separately, markets see India s September CPI inflation easing moderately to 3.2% y-o-y, from 3.4% in August, partly due to a deceleration in vegetable prices and soft economic momentum. The recent RBI meetings have placed particular focus on rising inflationary pressure (page 6) and thus the data will be closely scrutinised, especially to evaluate the possibility of further rate cuts in December or early 218. UAE: Abu Dhabi raises USD1 billion in USD debt sale The Abu Dhabi government returned to the international bond market last week, raising a record USD1 billion for the emirate. It was also the first time that Abu Dhabi has raised 3-year debt. The auction was three times oversubscribed and likely supported by Abu Dhabi s strong fundamentals, including its substantial FX reserves and low debt (c.3.3% of GDP in 216). Moreover, we expect the government to post a small and continued fiscal deficit of c.2% in 217. As such, we believe that the funds raised will more than cover the fiscal deficit in 217 and likely in

2 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13 Nov-13 Feb-14 May-14 Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16 Nov-16 Feb-17 May-17 Aug e 217f I. Recent Events and Data Releases A. MENA Economies UAE: Abu Dhabi raises USD1 billion in international bond sale The Emirate of Abu Dhabi (Moody s: Aa2, S&P: AA, Fitch: AA) returned to the international bond market last week, raising USD1 billion. This was the emirate s first sovereign debt issuance since April 216 when USD5 billion was sold. The paper was split into three tranches: i) a USD3 billion five-year note at 65 bps over US Treasuries; ii) a USD4 billion 1-year tranche at 85 bps over US Treasuries; and iii) a USD3 billion 3-year tranche at 13 bps over US Treasuries. Alongside the fact that this was a record amount raised, it was also the first time that Abu Dhabi added 3-year maturities to its existing yield curve. This will provide a benchmark for Abu Dhabi corporates looking to raise longterm funding and takes advantage of global demand from investors seeking higher yields in a low rate environment. Demand for the paper was strong and the offer was more than three times oversubscribed, with an order book of over USD3 billion. Demand for the debt was likely supported by Abu Dhabi s strong credit fundamentals, including its substantial FX reserves and low debt, and the moderately attractive pricing over the existing debt. Government debt stood at c.3.3% of GDP in 216, substantially below the 21.8% median for countries rated Aa2 by Moody s. Moreover, we also expect a small and continued fiscal deficit of c.2% for the government in 217. As such, we believe that the funds raised will more than cover the fiscal deficit of 217 and likely of 218. Abu Dhabi issues debt with 3- year maturity for first time We believe that USD1 billion raised will more than cover 217 and 218 fiscal deficits Fig. 1. UAE: Abu Dhabi estimated to see contained fiscal deficit of c.2% of GDP in 217 Government balance, % of GDP Fig. 2. Egypt: FX reserves rise to USD36.5 billion in September, equal to over 7.5 months of import cover USD billion (LHA); months of import cover (RHA) Gross Official Reserves, USD billion (LHA) Months of Imports (RHA) Source: Abu Dhabi Department of Finance, IMF, ADCB estimate Source: Central Bank of Egypt, ADCB estimates Egypt: RRR raised by 3 bps to 14% as banking liquidity eases The CBE has announced that it will raise the bank requirement ratio (RRR) on EGP deposits to 14%, effective from 1 October. This is up from 1%, bringing the rate back to the pre-212 levels. The rise in RRR comes after increased capital inflows, supported by the devaluation of the EGP and a three-year USD12 billion Extended Fund Facility (EFF) with the IMF in November 216. Banking sector liquidity conditions have improved and the central bank cited "improved economic indicators" when announcing the increase. The move to raise the RRR has been seen as a pre-emptive move to start lowering interest rates from the December meeting, as the CBE adopts other measures to tighten Increase in RRR will help to tighten monetary conditions as liquidity has improved 2

3 1Q215 2Q215 3Q215 4Q215 1Q216 2Q216 3Q216 4Q216 1Q217 2Q217 monetary policy. Furthermore, inflation is expected to slow sharply from November as the impact of the EGP devaluation falls out of the y-o-y data. Inflation data is already showing tentative signs of peaking. The move to increase the RRR will also help to reduce the cost of open market operations by the CBE to absorb excess liquidity from the banking system through more costly deposit auctions. Meanwhile, Egypt s FX reserves continued to rise in September, reaching USD36.5 billion. We estimate that this is over 7.8 months of import cover. This places Egypt in a very comfortable position to meet its debt repayments of c.usd7 billion in the coming months. Fig. 3. Qatar: Real GDP growth slows sharply with greater contraction in hydrocarbon sector and as non-oil activity slows further % change y-o-y 15 Hydrocarbon Non-hydrocarbon Real GDP Growth Source: Ministry of Development Planning Statistics Qatar: Real GDP growth slows to.6% y-o-y in 2Q217 Qatar s real GDP growth moderated to just.6% y-o-y in 2Q217 from 2.4% in the previous quarter. This was the weakest growth since 211 when the current data series started. The headline deceleration was largely due to the hydrocarbon sector, which contracted 2.7% y-o-y. This was the third consecutive quarter of contraction, impacted by the OPEC production cuts. The non-oil sector also continued its softening growth trend, slowing to 3.9% y-o-y in 2Q from 5.2% in 1Q (in real terms). We believe that the data shows the ongoing trend of slowing non-oil activity, which was also visible over the past few years. However, this trend was heightened by the first few weeks of the GCC political developments (starting in early June), which have impacted trade, people and capital flows. Particularly notable was a real contraction in the transport and storage sector of 1.2% y-o-y in 2Q217 compared to real growth of 4% in 1Q. Construction activity, however, remained broadly stable, seeing growth of 15.3% in 2Q. The short-term impact of the regional developments on construction activity was likely mitigated by existing stocks of building materials. However, shortages could increase, resulting in a slowdown in investment activity in the subsequent quarter. Hydrocarbon sector contracts for third consecutive quarter B. G4 Economies US: Jobs fall by 33K in September, wage growth jumps The September labour report surprised markets, though uncertainties and distortions were expected given the impact of recent hurricanes. Non-farm payrolls fell by 33K in September, versus market expectations of an 8K gain. Notably, employment in the leisure and hospitality sectors fell by 111K, areas that are particularly impacted by Unemployment falls to 4.2% in September, the lowest level since 21 3

4 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Apr-17 Jul-17 Aug-13 Nov-13 Feb-14 May-14 Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16 Nov-16 Feb-17 May-17 Aug-17 weather conditions. This was led by employment in food and drinking outlets (September: -15K), where there are more part-time positions and flexibility in labour contracts. Employment activity was mixed elsewhere. Transportation and warehousing payrolls gained a strong 22K, likely owing to increased demand for drivers to deliver supplies to recovery zones. Construction employment also saw a modest gain of 8K. The unemployment rate was 4.2% in September (consensus: 4.4%), the lowest level since February 21. Also, average hourly earnings rose sharply by.5% m-o-m (consensus:.3%, August:.2%) pushing the annual reading to 2.9%, partly due to hurricane distortions and the possible drop-out of low waged workers from the leisure and hospitality sectors. Fig. 4. US: September contraction in jobs due to leisure and hospitality sector (LHA); % (RHA) Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (LHA) Unemployment Rate (RHA) Fig. 5. % change US: Wage growth spikes in September, but upwardly revised for previous two months % change y-o-y (LHA) % change m-o-m, 3M moving average (RHA) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics We believe that this data release will not have any impact on the Fed policymakers intention to raise the FFTR rate in December. We envisage the Fed will instead focus on the fall in the overall unemployment rate and pick-up in wage growth data, which still indicate tight labour market conditions, despite the hurricane effect. Upward revisions to July (to 2.6% y-o-y) and August (to 2.7% y-o-y) hourly earnings data indicate a stronger underlying trend in wage growth. The impact of past hurricane distortions on the jobs report, particularly Hurricane Katrina, indicates that employment data will recover sharply in the upcoming months, as more construction jobs are created. Moreover, the jobs lost in September should normalise in the upcoming months. Overall, in our view, the labour market momentum remains intact. Upwards revisions to wage growth in July and August reflect strong labour market ISM manufacturing index rose to 6.8 in September (August: 58.8) the highest reading since 24 and substantially beating the consensus estimate of The upside surprise was in part due to the disruption caused by the hurricanes in August and September but also reflects a broad-based pick-up in business activity. Within the sub-components, new orders surged to 64.6 in September from 6.3 the previous month, whilst the price index rose to a six-year high of 71.5 in September (62. in August). The pick-up in prices likely reflected a combination of disruption to the labour market and supply chains and the rise in oil prices caused by the hurricanes. Also, the ISM non-manufacturing PMI rose to a 12- year high of 59.8 in September, up from 55.3 in August. While much of the boost to the headline ISM index and subcomponents was due to temporary factors, the data still points to a healthy manufacturing sector. ISM manufacturing at 13-year high, boosted by hurricane disruptions 4

5 Sep-7 Sep-8 Sep-9 Sep-1 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 Sep-14 Sep-15 Sep-16 Sep-17 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Apr-17 Jul-17 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 May-15 Sep-15 May-16 Sep-16 May-17 Sep-17 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Apr-17 Jul-17 Fig. 6. US: Labour force participation increasing only very slowly, though signs of shortage of skilled workers % (LHA); 3-month moving average (RHA) Labour Force Participation Rate 3-Month Moving Average Fig. 7. Index US: ISM manufacturing index rises sharply due to temporary factors; underlying conditions still healthy Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Source: Institute for Supply Management Eurozone: ECB discussion on QE tapering starts, policy action likely in October meeting The minutes of the ECB s September monetary policy meeting highlighted that the bulk of the decisions regarding policy adjustments will be taken at its October meeting, with a possibility of some technical adjustments at a later stage. The tone of the meeting remained dovish, as there was broad agreement among the governing council (GC) members to maintain substantial monetary policy support. The members also expressed concerns over the recent EUR appreciation, which could keep inflation subdued in the upcoming period. Furthermore, the ECB also looked apprehensive about the economic outlook, in-line with the post MPC meeting statement. The views expressed at the meeting indicate that the ECB is more likely to take advantage of the current favourable growth and market conditions to further scale back the asset purchases. The GC has initiated discussions regarding QE tapering and evaluated different scenarios with the pace and intended duration varying. The depth of the discussions indicate the GC s intention to retain flexibility regarding future policy guidance on QE adjustments. Our core assumption is that the ECB will reduce monthly purchases by EUR2 billion to EUR4 billion, starting in January for six months. ECB looking to take advantage of favourable market conditions Fig. 8. Eurozone: Weak inflation backdrop will result in gradual monetary policy normalisation % change y-o-y Headline CPI, y-o-y CPI Core, y-o-y Fig. 9. Index Japan: All areas of corporates see rise in sentiment in 3Q217, partly due to stronger external demand Large Manufacturing Firms Small Manufacturing Firms Large Non-manufacturing Firms Source: Eurostat Source: Bank of Japan 5

6 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Japan: Tankan surveys show broad pick-up in corporate sentiment Recent Tankan surveys, which reflect corporate sentiment, showed a broad-based increase in 3Q217. The improvement in sentiment was across the manufacturing and service sectors, alongside large and small firms. The business conditions index for large manufacturing industries reached a 1-year high of 22 in 3Q217 (consensus: 18, 2Q217: 17). The improvement in corporate sentiment was due to a pick-up in export demand, supported by the weaker JPY and a further pick-up in global growth. The buoyant outlook, however, led companies to highlight labour shortages and rising wages. Actual capital expenditure by corporates weakened moderately to 7.7% y-o-y in 3Q217, down from 8% in 2Q, but was still solid. Despite signs of higher wages, shorter-term inflation projections weakened slightly; the one-year-ahead inflation expectations weakened to.7% y-o-y in 3Q217 (.8% in 2Q217). This could partly be due to firms USD:JPY exchange rate expectations remaining relatively strong at for FY (Jul 217-Jun 218) compared to the current levels of Short-term inflation expectations still muted C. Emerging Market Economies India: RBI remains on hold with neutral stance The RBI kept its benchmark repo rate on hold at 6% at its 4 October meeting, in line with our and the market s expectations. Five out of the committee s six members voted in favour of keeping rates unchanged, with one member voting for a 25 bps cut. However, to increase banking sector liquidity, the central bank reduced its statutory liquidity ratio (SLR) to 19.5% from 2%, effective from 14 October. The SLR is the proportion of deposits that banks need to invest in specific securities. Repo rate steady but SLR lowered by 5 bps Fig. 1. India: RBI keeps repo and reverse repo rate steady as inflation starts to pick up % (LHA); % changes y-o-y (RHA) Repo Rate, % (LHA) Reverse Repo, % (LHA) CPI Inflation, y-o-y (RHA) Source: RBI and India Central Statistics Organisation In our view, the tone of the meeting was slightly more neutral than expected, as the inflation outlook overshadowed the economic growth concerns. The inflation forecast was revised up to % (previously %) for FY (April 217-March 218), citing a weaker South-West monsoon season, a greater impact from the goods and service tax (GST) on inflation and rising crude oil prices. The RBI also sees major upside risks to inflation from the likely increases in salaries and allowances by state governments, the potential fiscal slippages by some states due to farm loan waivers, and possible fiscal stimulus measures by the central government. However, the RBI acknowledged the tepid economic growth outlook and lowered its growth forecast (GVA) sharply to 6.7% for FY from the August projection of 7.3%. This downward Inflation forecasts revised higher but growth projections lowered 6

7 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Apr-17 Jul-17 revision was mainly due to the adverse impact of the implementation of the GST, waning consumer confidence and a possible slide in agricultural production. The RBI sees the risks to GVA projections as being evenly balanced. The forward guidance from the RBI s meeting moderately lowers the likelihood of a rate cut at the bank s 6 December MPC meeting. We had previously highlighted expectations of a 25 bps rate cut either in December or in early 218. However, we believe that the next two months could clarify the RBI s stance as there will be more clarity on central and state governments fiscal policy actions and their likely impact on the inflation outlook. Also, the recent government action to cut excise duty on petrol and diesel by INR2 per litre is expected to marginally lower inflation. Overall, we believe that there could be signs of price stabilisation by the end of 217, supporting a rate cut which would be vital for boosting economic activity. RBI waiting for greater clarity on fiscal policy Turkey: Inflation remains elevated; CBRT to retain hawkish tone Consumer prices accelerated by.7% m-o-m in September (consensus:.6%), a fivemonth high, up from.5% in August. This resulted in the annual rate rising to 11.2% y-oy in September (August: 1.7%). Core inflation also strengthened to its highest level since 24, reaching 11% y-o-y in September from 1.2% in August. The biggest monthly increases came from the education (2.1%), transport (1.6%), hotels & restaurants (1%) and housing (.8%) categories. The weaker TRY, base effects and strong economic momentum (driven by exports, fiscal stimulus and credit growth) are largely behind this acceleration and are expected to keep inflation elevated for the rest of the year. Despite increasing political pressure from the government to cut rates, we expect the CBRT to maintain its tight monetary stance on the back of the recent pick-up in core inflation and the likely Fed rate hike in December. We expect inflation to moderate meaningfully only in early 218 as base effects wane. Both headline and core inflation strengthen beyond consensus expectations Fig. 11. Turkey: Both headline and core inflation substantially higher than central banks target range % change y-o-y CPI-Headline CPI-Core Lower Bound Upper Bound Source: State Institute of Statistics Turkey, CBRT 7

8 II. Economic Calendar Fig. 12. The week ahead Time* Country Event Period Prior Consensus MENA data Monday, 9 Oct Bahrain GDP Constant Prices, y-o-y 2Q 2.9% -- Bahrain GDP Constant Prices, q-o-q 2Q 2.2% -- UAE Dubai Airport Cargo Volume, y-o-y Aug 5% -- UAE Dubai Economy Tracker SA Sep Egypt Urban CPI, y-o-y Sep 31.9% -- Egypt Urban CPI, m-o-m Sep 1.1% -- Egypt CPI Core, y-o-y Sep 34.9% -- Oman Budget Balance Month Aug M -- Qatar CPI, y-o-y Sep -.4% -- 5:45 China Caixin China PMI Composite Sep :45 China Caixin China PMI Services Sep Tuesday, 1 Oct 3:5 Japan BoP Current Account Balance Aug JPY232B JPY2223.3B 4:3 Japan BOJ Kuroda speaks at Branch Managers' meeting 12:3 UK Industrial Production, m-o-m Aug.2%.2% Wednesday, 11 Oct China Money Supply M2, y-o-y Sep 8.9% 9% China New Yuan Loans CNY Sep 19B 123B China Aggregate Financing CNY Sep 148B B India Exports, y-o-y Sep 1.3% -- India Imports, y-o-y Sep 21% -- 3:5 Japan Core Machine Orders, m-o-m Aug 8% 1% 3:5 Japan Core Machine Orders, y-oy Aug -7.5%.8% 4: US Fed's Kaplan Speaks at Stanford Institute 15:15 US Fed's Evans Speaks on Economy and Monetary Policy 18: US JOLTS Job Openings Aug : US FOMC Meeting Minutes 2-Sep Thursday, 12 Oct 3:1 UK RICS House Price Balance Sep 6% 4% 13: Eurozone Industrial Production SA, m-o-m Aug.1%.6% 16: India CPI, y-o-y Sep 3.4% -- 16: India Industrial Production, y-o-y Aug 1.2% -- 16:3 US PPI Final Demand, m-o-m Sep.2%.4% 18:15 US ECB's Draghi, Fed's Brainard Speak on Monetary Policy Panel 18:3 US Fed's Powell Speaks at IIF Conference in Washington Friday, 13 Oct 16:3 US CPI, m-o-m Sep.4%.6% 16:3 US CPI, ex-food and Energy, m-o-m Sep.2%.2% 16:3 US CPI, y-o-y Sep 1.9% 2.3% 16:3 US CPI, ex-food and Energy, y-o-y Sep 1.7% 1.8% 16:3 US Retail Sales Advance, m-o-m Sep -.2% 1.6% 16:3 US Retail Sales, ex-auto and Gas, m-o-m Sep -.1%.4% 16:3 US Retail Sales Control Group Sep -.2%.4% 18:25 US Fed's Evans Speaks on Economy and Monetary Policy 19:3 US Fed's Kaplan Speaks in Boston 21: US Fed's Powell Speaks at Boston Fed Economic Conference * UAE time Source: Bloomberg China Trade Balance Sep $42B $38B China Imports, USD y-o-y Sep 13.5% 15.2% China Exports, USD y-o-y Sep 5.6% 9.8% 8

9 Fig. 13. Last week s data Time* Country Event Period Prior Consensus Actual MENA data Monday, 2 Oct Qatar GDP Constant Prices, y-o-y 2Q 2.5% --.6% Saudi Arabia Unemployment Rate (Saudis) 2Q 12.7% % Egypt Gross Official Reserves Sep 36.1B B 3:5 Japan Tankan Large Mfg Index 3Q :5 Japan Tankan Large Mfg Outlook 3Q :5 Japan Tankan Large Non-Mfg Index 3Q :5 Japan Tankan Large Non-Mfg Outlook 3Q :3 UK Markit UK PMI Manufacturing SA Sep : Eurozone Unemployment Rate Aug 9.1% 9% 9.1% 18: US ISM Manufacturing Sep : US ISM New Orders Sep Tuesday, 3 Oct 3:5 Japan Monetary Base, y-o-y Sep 16.3% 16.7% 15.6% 8:15 UAE Emirates NBD UAE PMI Sep :15 Saudi Arabia Emirates NBD Saudi Arabia PMI Sep :15 Egypt Emirates NBD Egypt PMI Sep : India Nikkei India PMI Mfg Sep :3 UK Markit/CIPS UK Construction PMI Sep Wednesday, 4 Oct 13: Eurozone Retail Sales, m-o-m Aug -.3%.3% -.5% 13: Eurozone Retail Sales, y-o-y Aug 2.3% 2.6% 1.2% 13: India RBI Repurchase Rate 4-Oct 6% 6% 6% 13: India RBI Reverse Repo Rate 4-Oct 5.8% 5.8% 5.8% 13: India RBI Cash Reserve Ratio 4-Oct 4% 4% 4% 15: US MBA Mortgage Applications 29-Sep -.5% % 16:15 US ADP Employment Change Sep 228K 135K 135K 17:45 US Markit US Composite PMI Sep F : US ISM Non-Manf. Composite Sep Thursday, 5 Oct 9: India Nikkei India PMI Composite Sep :3 Eurozone ECB account of the monetary policy meeting 16:3 US Initial Jobless Claims 3-Sep 272K 265K 26K 16:3 US Continuing Claims 23-Sep 1936K 195K 1938K 16:3 US Trade Balance Aug -$43.7B -$42.7B -$42.4B 18: US Factory Orders Aug -3.3% 1% 1.2% 18: US Factory Orders, ex-trans Aug.5% --.4% Friday, 6 Oct 11:3 UK Halifax House Prices, m-o-m Sep 1.5% %.8% 11:3 UK Halifax House Price, 3Mths/Year Sep 2.6% 3.6% 4% 16:3 US Change in Nonfarm Payrolls Sep 169K 8K -33K 16:3 US Unemployment Rate Sep 4.4% 4.4% 4.2% 16:3 US Average Hourly Earnings, m-o-m Sep.2%.3%.5% 16:3 US Average Hourly Earnings, y-o-y Sep 2.7% 2.6% 2.9% 16:3 US Labor Force Participation Rate Sep 62.9% 62.9% 63.1% * UAE time Source: Bloomberg 9

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