The World Bank Social Assistance System Modernization Project (P121673)

Transcription

1 Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized The World Bank SOCIAL PROTECTION & LABOR EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA Regional Vice President: Country Director: Senior Global Practice Director: Practice Manager/Manager: Task Team Leader: DOCUMENT OF THE WORLD BANK RESTRUCTURING PAPER ON A PROPOSED PROJECT RESTRUCTURING OF SOCIAL ASSISTANCE SYSTEM MODERNIZATION PROJECT APPROVED ON MAY 26, 2011 TO THE ROMANIA 26 SEPTEMBER 2016 Cyril E Muller Arup Banerji Michal J. Rutkowski Andrew D. Mason Emil Daniel Tesliuc REPORT NO.: RES24761 This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank Group authorization.

2 ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS ANAF CRB DLI EA EEP EFC EUR FA FM GMI GoR HB IBRD IT M&E MoLFSP MoLFSPE MoPF NAPD NASB PDI PDO PMU RAS RON SA SAFIR SASMP SCA SORT SPL GP TA VMI WB National Agency for Fiscal Administration Child Raising Benefit Disbursement Linked Indicator Environmental Assessment Eligible Expenditure Program Error, Fraud and Corruption Euro Family Allowance Financial Management Guaranteed Minimum Income Government of Romania Heating Benefits International Bank for Reconstruction and Development Information Technology Monitoring and Evaluation Ministry of Labor, Family and Social Protection Ministry of Labor, Family, Social Protection and Elderly Ministry of Public Finance National Agency for Persons with Disability National Agency for Social Benefits Project Development Indicator Project Development Objective Project Management Unit Reimbursable Advisory Services New Romanian Lei Social Assistance Integrated Information System for Administration of Social Benefits Social Assistance System Modernization Project State Child Allowance Systematic Operations Risk-Rating Tool Social Protection and Labor Global Practice Technical Assistance Minimum Inclusion Income Program World Bank

3 BASIC DATA Product Information Project ID P Original EA Category Not Required (C) Approval Date 26-May-2011 Lending Instrument Specific Investment Loan Current EA Category Not Required (C) Current Closing Date 31-Dec-2017 Organizations Borrower Romania Responsible Agency Ministry of Labor, Family, Social Protection and Elderly Project Development Objective (PDO) Original PDO Improve the overall performance of Romania's social assistance system by strengthening performance management, improving equity, improving administrative efficiency and reducing error and fraud. Summary Status of Financing (US$ Millions) as of 14-Aug-2015 Ln/Cr/Tf Approval Signing Effectiveness Closing Net Commitment Disbursed Undisbursed IBRD May Jul Apr Dec Policy Waiver(s) Does this restructuring trigger the need for any policy waiver(s)? No I. PROJECT STATUS AND RATIONALE FOR RESTRUCTURING

4 1. Background and Project Status 1. The 500 million Romania Social Assistance System Modernization Project supports the Government of Romania in the reform of its social assistance programs, including implementing its reform strategy, through an Investment Project Financing (IPF) where disbursements are linked to results in four areas: strengthening performance management, improving equity, improving administrative efficiency and reducing error and fraud. The Project has supported important reforms and results including improving equity and reducing error and fraud. The draft Minimum Social Inclusion Income program law, or VMI upon its Romanian acronym which consolidates three means-tested programs into a flagship anti-poverty program, improves targeting and behavioral conditionalities, and introduces earning disregards to stimulate work among low-income households stands out as one of the best pro-poor legislation in the ECA region. 2. In the first two years after effectiveness, project implementation proceeded nimbly, with 9 of 19 disbursement-linked indicators (DLIs) being achieved and US$ 322m disbursed by June 2014 (45 percent of the loan 1 ). The project was restructured in May 2013 to combine two DLIs into one and to reflect the Client experience where they found a more effective way to achieve the development objectives embodied in the DLIs using a method unforeseen during project design. However, with a change in Government in 2014, project implementation slowed down sharply and the last disbursement took place in June In April 2015 the project was restructured a second time to create a new component (Component 5) to support the necessary activities to achieve the pending DLIs through technical assistance and extend the closing date to December 31, The main reasons for implementation delays have been: (i) the frequent political and administrative changes within the Ministry of Labor, Family, Social Protection and Elderly (MoLFSPE); (ii) related delays in reforming the legislative and regulatory framework; and (iii) a lack of adequate PMU staff in Currently the project is rated moderately unsatisfactory both for development objectives and implementation. 3. The Project remains highly relevant for the modernization agenda of the social assistance sector in Romania, and it is possible to complete the activities and achieve all remaining DLIs during the remaining implementation period. Performance of the project has improved in the last several months and significant efforts have been made to restructure and re-staff the PMU and to advance key legislation. For instance, the draft VMI law was adopted by Government on March 30, 2016, it is in Parliament for enactment and is expected to be passed by November 2016 and be effective in April This law will lock in important aspects of the program (eligibility criteria that will trigger both improved targeting and a larger coverage of the poor, more generous benefits, work incentives for beneficiaries and improved behavioral conditionalities) and will help put in place the systems and other resources for the law s implementation. Implementation of the law will lead to a more equitable and efficient system. 4. Recent actions have been taken to improve the capacity of the PMU and ensure it is properly staffed. This includes adoption of a decree on the organization of MoLFSPE, where the scope of the PMU activities have been expanded from a purely fiduciary role to project management to boost implementation capacity. The Project will continue to require close supervision and support given the very tight timeline and the number of activities to be carried out. Progress will be assessed early in 2017 with the new government, and if 1 Expressed in Euro, disbursements represent 50% of the loan value. The disbursed US$ amount is less than 50 percent of the US$ commitment because of the Euro depreciation since project approval. Impact of the Euro depreciation can also be seen in the revised US$ equivalent amount, as reflected in the Components section of this paper.

5 implementation does not improve, cancellations of activities that cannot be achieved by the project closing date will be considered. 2. Rationale for Restructuring 5. The restructuring is necessary as some of the objectives and results cannot be fully achieved within the remaining implementation period of the Project. The restructuring proposal is based on an assessment of what is feasible and proposes to change the PDO and some results in order to have realistic, yet ambitious outcomes for this project by the closing date of December The proposed restructuring also offers an opportunity to capture important progress achieved over the last several months (including advancements to achieve three revised DLIs in CY16), and sustain critical momentum for achieving the key development objectives. 6. The restructuring proposes (i) a modification of the PDO; (ii) a better specification of two result-based components to better reflect the results achieved under the loan (improving equity and reducing error and fraud); (iii) redefining six of the ten still undisbursed DLIs; and (iv) expand the scope of Component 5 (technical assistance /investment) to support key elements of the Government reform agenda, particularly those related to the disability policy and programs, error and fraud (expanded to include preventive measures for earningsrelated benefits and inspections of invalidity pensions) and the implementation of an Integrated Social Services approach supported by a Social Inclusion RAS. 7. Two changes are proposed for the PDO. First, the reference to improved equity will be modified as putting in place sufficient conditions to improve equity which better reflects that some indicators will not be possible to measure until after loan closing. However, the Government maintains its commitment to improved equity and, with project support, will put in place the necessary pre-conditions to allow the implementation of the VMI law whose impact on improved equity will be measurable by These pre-conditions include: eligibility criteria to trigger improved targeting of benefits, more generous benefits, less exclusion error, a significantly larger budget compared to the one in 2015, as well as improved implementation arrangements. The new legislation also commits Government to earmarking budget for the VMI during 2018 onwards. The draft law estimates the budget required for the project, of about RON 2.4 billion on annual basis, which is 70 percent higher than RON 1.4 billion spent in 2015 on the three existing means-tested programs to be replaced by the VMI. The larger budget will support an expansion in program coverage and increase in the average benefit. The Government has committed to include the necessary funds in the Budgetary and Fiscal Strategy during calendar year 2016, and in the draft 2018 Budget Law. 8. Second, the reference to reducing error and fraud in the PDO has been modified to building systems that contribute to reducing error and fraud, which reflects more accurately the results supported by the loan, while acknowledging the difficulty to accurately measure the level of error and fraud. 9. Important actions are being taken by the Government to ensure a smooth implementation of the VMI program before the project closes, and these efforts are recognized as part of the proposed restructuring. An implementation team will be established to prepare the VMI program, to develop and adopt the secondary legislation, as well as operational guidelines of the program. Evidence suggests that about 40 percent of the 2 The law is comprehensive and includes all key parameters of the VMI program, such as eligibility thresholds, benefit formulae, income disregards to stimulate work for low income beneficiaries, behavioral conditionalities, as well as simplified implementation arrangements through less reliance on paper-based processes and increased reliance on ICT processes.

6 population in the poorest quintile is not covered by means-tested programs, and two of the causes of limited coverage of the poor are insufficient information and training for frontline social assistance workers, and limited information among potential beneficiaries. The development and dissemination of the operational guidelines of the VMI, a first for Romania, will help address these two causes of limited outreach of means-tested programs. The MoLFPSE leadership has committed to finalize and adopt the development plan for the IT system for social assistance benefits, including the module for the VMI program; and to contract a consultant that will develop the module. These measures are supported by the project as revised DLIs. 10. The proposed restructuring also acknowledges the notable expansion in the scope of reforms to reduce waste from error, fraud and corruption (EFC), and in turn, contribute to the sustainability of programs for the poor and vulnerable and of the pension system. MoLFSPE will: (i) expand the EFC measures to social insurance areas, starting with the most EFC risk-prone program in social insurance, the disability pensions, referred above; and (ii) complement the focus on detection and correction of EFC by NASB, with measures aimed at preventing EFC from entering in the benefit system. Both measures are very important. The first measure is important because disability pensions is a large program, with about 650,000 beneficiaries (3.3 percent of the population), and low level of oversight and control. Improving the integrity of invalidity payments will send a strong signal that the Government is concerned by the waste in this program, will increase the trust of the population in the way the program is administered, and would help curtail the cost of a pension system which runs significant deficits. The second measure, to prevent EFC from entering in earnings-related social assistance programs, is a move toward modern, best-practice systems from OECD countries. 11. In addition, increased efforts have been made to improve administrative efficiency. An Emergency Ordinance was drafted to support, inter alia, the introduction of a unique application form for programs for lowincome households, thus completing the reforms supported by DLI 8 which have harmonized the means-testing procedures. The introduction of the unique application form will trigger a reduction of the client participation costs for the three means-tested programs for low-income households, estimated (as of 2012) to represent about 10 percent of the benefit received. The reduction of client participation cost will help increase the take up of these programs by the poor, and will increase the net benefit gained by the beneficiaries. Furthermore, the introduction of the unique application form will also reduce administrative costs, and will represent an important step towards reducing total administrative and beneficiary costs by at least 15 percent (DLI 12), an intermediate project outcome. In parallel, MoFLSPE has started the procurement process for consultancy services to track these costs on a quarterly basis, using both administrative and survey data. 12. The Government has also expanded its efforts to improve administrative efficiency with respect to disability. Romania operates a dual certification system for persons with disability (PwDs), separate for invalidity pensioners and for beneficiaries of disability allowances. The project originally supported the process of unifying certification criteria and the institutional framework, particularly the certification of medical criteria and the unification of the agencies responsible for disability into a single institution. While the counterparts have determined that the unification of the agencies responsible for disability is no longer feasible before the project closes, it has also committed to extending the scope of the reforms for the full certification of disability, not only covering medical, but also psychosocial criteria, in line with best practice. This expanded result is important for the social inclusion of PwDs which, under the current criteria focused on medical assessment of invalidity, are often segregated or discouraged to work. The result of putting in place and operating an unique certification agency for all PwDs, which cannot be met before the project closes because there is not enough time for the legislative, regulatory and institutional reform, is proposed to be replaced with a new result aimed to reduce error and fraud in invalidity pensions, a large risk-prone social insurance benefit. The Government commits to have at least one thematic inspection carried out by NASB before the project closes. An Emergency Ordinance

7 that offers an expanded role to NASB to safeguard the integrity of all cash benefits, both pensions and allowances, has been developed by MoLFSPE. 13. Finally, the Government s request to restructure Component 5 (technical assistance) will help support the implementation of activities towards achieving the remaining DLIs and, at the same time, support the broader reform agenda of the social assistance sector in Romania. 14. With the proposed restructuring, by strengthening the safety net system, this Project remains relevant and will continue to make important contributions on poverty, targeting accuracy, coverage of the poor, generosity, fiscal savings, and labor market impacts. For instance, the VMI legislation will increase the adequacy of the benefits and the coverage of the poor and will help reverse the recent trend of increasing poverty in Romania, by increasing budgetary resources channeled through a program which is better targeted to the poor. Most of the policy measures aimed at stimulating consumption taken in the last couple of years have been directed to the middle class. To reduce poverty, the VMI program will cover about 1 million families or about 4 million Romanians of which 80 percent live in rural areas and increase the annual budget targeted to the poorest. World Bank estimates suggest this could reduce poverty by 3-4 percentage points. Furthermore, and as initially intended, the revised operation will support the selection of a set of eligibility criteria that will increase the share of program budget that will go to the poor (60 percent). Moreover, the VMI law will provide stronger incentives for the poor to get back to work and reduce in-work poverty, by adopting a similar benefit formula as in France, Germany and UK, where the income threshold for program eligibility implicitly rises if the beneficiaries start working or work more. This is an important contribution and change in the practice of social assistance in Romania which will help reduce the share of poor adults who do not work (many of them in rural areas), as well as the share of in-work poor. Finally, the VMI is designed to cover the poorest quintile, and includes a targeting instrument that can be used to fine-tune other interventions for the poor, at a fraction of the cost compared to categorical or universal policies. A full ex-post revision of the economic analysis will be in the ICR, including reporting on original estimates versus final estimates and actual outcomes. II. DESCRIPTION OF PROPOSED CHANGES 1. Project Development Objective 1. The proposed project restructuring involves changes in the PDO. The original PDO is to Improve the overall performance of Romania's social assistance system by strengthening performance management, improving equity, improving administrative efficiency and reducing error and fraud. The proposed revised PDO is as follows: Improve the overall performance of Romania's social assistance system by strengthening performance management, putting in place sufficient conditions to improve equity, improving administrative efficiency and building systems that contribute to reducing error and fraud. 2. Explanation: The project contributes to improve the equity of the Romanian social assistance system. However, the result as defined during appraisal (increasing share of social assistance funds going to the poorest quintile, associated to DLI #7) will be achieved after the closing date of December 2017 and could be measured only by By the end of the project, however, all necessary and sufficient conditions for improving equity will be in place, including: (i) the law and secondary legislation for the

8 2. Project Components VMI program will be adopted, providing for improved targeting and more generous benefits for the poor; (ii) a larger budget will be allocated in the draft 2018 Budget Law; and (iii) the key implementation arrangements (operational manual, consultants working to upgrade the eligibility and payment software) will be finalized. With these conditions in place, the improvement in equity will occur once the VMI program launches in April In addition, recognizing the difficulty of measuring and tracking the overpayments due to error and fraud, the last component of the PDO would be replaced with building systems that contribute to reducing error and fraud, that reflects better the results supported by the loan. 3. The restructuring proposal involves changes in the definition of six of the ten DLIs not yet disbursed to recognize important achievements towards the PDO. The DLIs still undisbursed include four DLIs whose definition was unchanged (3, 12, 14 and 19), one DLI with an expanded scope (9), as well as redefining the remaining 5 DLIs (6, 7, 10, 11, and 17) into new DLIs. These DLIs are associated with intermediary steps in achieving the reforms, and thus with smaller amounts. In summary, the changes to the project are in: (a) Results Area 2 putting in place sufficient conditions to improve equity ; (b) Results Area 3 Improved administrative efficiency ; and (d) Results Area 4 building systems that contribute to reducing error and fraud. Detailed explanations are provided below. Table 1 presents a summary table of the proposed changes in the DLI definition and structure and Table 2 presents the revised DLIs and their mapping to the four results-based components of the loan. Additionally, to support achievement of remaining DLIs, the scope of Component 5 (Technical assistance/investment) is proposed to be expanded. a. Results Area 2. Putting in place sufficient conditions to improve equity 4. The restructuring proposes to revise this results area as Putting in place sufficient conditions to improve equity, in line with the revised PDO. The DLIs will be revised as detailed below. 5. DLI 6 At least 90% of beneficiaries of the new consolidated program for low income households programs are paid through NAPSI for two consecutive months. Achieving this DLI depends on the approval by the Parliament of the VMI law and implementation of the VMI program. As the VMI program will start only in April 2018, this DLI cannot be achieved before the expected project closing date. However, a number of necessary milestones for improving equity could be achieved during the project, the most important being the adoption of the VMI law, of the secondary legislation, and the operational guidelines (operational manual) of the project. The draft VMI Law was already approved by GoR, discussed and endorsed by the technical committee of the Senate (Parliament upper chamber). The law will be approved by the Senate and the Chamber of Deputies in CY16. This law, and its secondary legislation, is locking in a set of eligibility criteria that improve targeting both by reducing the inclusion error of the programs it replaces and the exclusion error (by relying less on a set of exclusionary asset filters which were found to leave out about one third of the poorest quintile). An additional important precondition is the establishment of an implementation team and the contracting of services for the development of the VMI eligibility and payment module. This DLI is therefore redefined to support VMI implementation readiness and would be split into two DLIs, reflecting the timing of achieving the results, as follows: i. DLI 6a To improve institutional arrangements to sustain the Minimum Inclusion Income Program: (i) MoLFSP has issued a ministerial order appointing the implementation team for

9 ii. the Minimum Inclusion Income Program, and (ii) NASB has adopted the development plan for the IT system for social assistance, including the module for the Minimum Inclusion Income Program. Proposed disbursement amount: EUR10 million. DLI 6b To improve targeting and coverage of the poor: (i) the Borrower has adopted the secondary legislation for the implementation of the Minimum Inclusion Income Program; (ii) MoLFSP has issued the operational guidelines for the implementation of Minimum Inclusion Income Program; and (iii) the consultancy contract to develop the module for the Minimum Inclusion Income Program before April 2018 is signed and effective. Proposed disbursement amount: EUR15 million. 6. DLI 7 The share of social assistance funds going to the first poorest quintile increased to 45% from 37.7% at baseline (in 2009), as measured by the Household Survey Budget. Achieving this DLI will not be possible before the project s closing date for two reasons: First, achieving this results depends on an increase in the targeting accuracy of the means-tested programs (of the VMI compared to its constituent programs) and of an increase in budget, which will occur after the project closes. Second, the measurement of this indicator could only happen after the program was implemented for some time, a survey is carried out to measure the increase in targeting accuracy, and the analysis is carried out (earliest is likely to be the second half of 2019). 7. The restructuring proposal is to replace DLI7 by two DLIs that focus on the same important issue but better capture milestones needed to increase the budget for means-tested programs (VMI program), complementing the actions from DLIs 6a and 6b. The increase in targeting accuracy, generosity and improved implementation arrangements is already captured in the proposed DLI 6a and 6b. The other necessary condition is increasing the budget. The budget planned for the VMI program is significantly larger than that of the constituent programs, of about RON 2.4 million per year compared to slightly less than RON 1.4 billion in The combined effect of the increase in targeting accuracy and budget of the VMI program will increase the social assistance funds goings to the poorest quintile from an estimated RON 1 billion to about RON 1.8 billion per year. Two DLIs are proposed to capture the commitment to increase the budget: (i) DLI 7a To increase the pro-poor budget allocation the MoPF has allocated funds for Minimum Inclusion Income Program in 2018 and 2019 amounting to at least RON 2.1 billion and RON 2.4 billion respectively in the Budgetary and Fiscal Strategy Proposed disbursement amount: EUR10 million. (ii) DLI 7b To increase the pro-poor budget allocation the Borrower has approved and submitted to Parliament the draft Budget Law for 2018 allocating funds for the Minimum Inclusion Income Program amounting to at least RON 2.1 billion. Proposed disbursement amount: EUR15 million. b. Results Area 3. Improved Administrative Efficiency 8. DLI 9 Enacted harmonized disability medical assessment criteria are disseminated. The Government has decided to expand the definition of this DLI to achieve full harmonization of the criteria for assessment of disability by including both medical and psychosocial classification. Therefore, this DLI has been redefined as follows: Harmonized medical and psychosocial criteria for invalidity pensions and disability allowances are adopted and disseminated. Proposed disbursement amount: EUR12 million (no change in the DLI value).

10 9. DLI 10 At least 90% of individuals who are certified for disability benefits according to the new harmonized disability system are paid through NASB. As this DLI is specified, its achievement requires (i) adoption of a new legislation, regulations and the implementation of a new harmonized institutional framework for certification of disability, and (ii) payment of the disability benefits through NASB. The first part of the DLI recognizes reforms that simplify the administration of disability certification, while the second part recognizes the improvement in the integrity of disability allowance payments once they migrate from county treasuries to NASB, the unique payment agency for social assistance benefits. Even though the former action is a priority for the Minister, it requires changing existing legislation and current institutional arrangements that may take longer than December Therefore, the Government has proposed to split the DLI into two, maintaining part (ii) but replacing part (i) to include a thematic inspection campaign for invalidity pensions, thus expanding the scope of the EFC activities from social assistance to the most risk-prone social insurance program, invalidity pensions. Therefore DLI 10 would be replaced by the following two DLIs: (i) DLI 10a NASB has carried out at least one thematic inspection campaign for invalidity pensions Proposed disbursement amount: EUR10 million (ii) DLI 10b At least 90% of individuals who are certified for disability benefits are paid through NASB for at least one month Proposed disbursement amount: EUR15 million 10. DLI 10a will be moved from Results Area 3 to Results Area 4 Building Systems that Contribute to Reducing Error and Fraud. 11. DLI 11 At least 90% of the new applications for the Low-income Households and Family Policy programs in the preceding two months comply with one application and one-point of service operational guidelines. The rationale behind this DLI (a single application form for five social assistance benefits) was to simplify the eligibility processes to reduce both beneficiary and administrative costs. However, the eligibility requirements and target groups for means-tested and respectively family programs are quite different. While the development of a single application process for means-tested and respectively family programs is likely to result in a reduction of administrative and private costs, the development of single application file for all programs would likely increase the costs for family programs. A more efficient approach was proposed by the Government as reflected in the revised DLI 11a. In addition, DLI 11b was included to reward the development of administrative systems that will prevent EFC in earnings-related benefits administered by NASB (Guaranteed Minimum Income program, Family Allowances, and Child Raising Benefits): (i) DLI 11a At least 90% of the new applications for the Low-income Household Programs and, respectively, Family Policy Programs received in the month preceding the verification survey comply with the one-application operational guidelines Proposed disbursement amount: EUR15 million (ii) DLI 11b To improve prevention of error and fraud in earnings-related benefits, NASB has: (i) issued guidelines on the use of private information on formal incomes from ANAF compliant with the data privacy law in force; and (ii) verified the self-declared income of the applicant families or households with the monthly formal income data from ANAF before issuing payments, for at least 90% of the new applicants for two consecutive months. Proposed disbursement amount: EUR10 million

11 12. DLI 11b will be moved from Results Area 3 to Results Area 4 Building Systems that Contribute to Reducing Error and Fraud. c. Results Area 4. Building Systems that Contribute to Reducing Error and Fraud 13. The restructuring proposes to revise this results area as Building Systems that Contribute to Reducing Error and Fraud, in line with the revised PDO. 14. DLI 17 Sanctions policy provisions, investigative powers and the referrals system for the Social Inspection are revised and in place. Given the number of activities that achieving this DLI involves (three standalone administrative reforms and changes in the regulatory framework) is was proposed to split this DLI into three components to recognize important milestones as follows: (i) DLI 17a NASB has revised and implemented a comprehensive referral system for Social Inspection and has carried out a round of inspections using the new referral system. Proposed disbursement amount: EUR5 million (ii) DLI 17b NASB has carried out a round of inspections using an uniform sanction policy for social assistance benefits. Proposed disbursement amount: EUR10 million (iii) DLI 17c NASB has carried out a round of inspections using new investigative powers. Proposed disbursement amount: EUR10 million d. Component 5 -Technical Assistance 15. The last restructuring defined a very limited set of activities that can be supported via TA/Investments from the newly introduced Component 5 of the loan. The proposed restructuring expands the definition of activities that can be financed from Component 5 to ensure that all necessary technical assistance to support activities towards achievement of the remaining DLIs can be funded under the loan, and to enhance the scope of the technical assistance to support government in carrying out social assistance reforms to modernize the sector in the areas of disability and integrated social services. Eligible activities under component 5 would now also include: A. Support MoLFSPE to achieve the DLIs through, inter alia, reducing of error, fraud and corruption in both social assistance and invalidity pensions, and developing a comprehensive monitoring system for the invalidity pensions and disability allowances programs. The risk-prone social assistance programs that are the focus of the activities on reducing error and fraud include Child Raising Benefits, Guaranteed Minimum Income program, Family Benefits, Heating Benefits and disability allowance programs. The disability allowance programs include the Indemnity for Disabled Adults and the Complementary Budget for Disabled Adults. B. Support MoLFSPE s development and implementation of reform measures to improve the social assistance system, including the development, implementation, monitoring, evaluation and piloting of an integrated social services model. 3. Results Framework 16. The Project s Results Framework will be modified to reflect the proposed changes in six of the ten DLIs still undisbursed and changes in two PDI and three results-based project components. Specifically, the PDO level indicator related to Improving Equity ( Increased share of social assistance funds going to the

12 poorest quintile ) is redefined as Legislation for consolidated program for Low-Income Households in place providing for improved targeting formula and increased average benefits and an intermediary results is introduced as Budget allocated for means-tested programs increased to minimum RON 2.1 billion. Its related intermediate result ( Percentage of beneficiaries of the new consolidated program for low income households are paid through NASB for two consecutive months ) is marked to be deleted (please see below the proposed Results Framework). Additional changes have been made to better define reducing fraud and error in the PDO and to refine indicator definitions and measures in both PDIs and intermediate indicators to more clearly define what they are measuring and how they support the PDO. Indicators that are no longer relevant or useful have been dropped. In particular, the indicators related to the reduction of the generosity of child raising benefits have been removed, given that the policy on generosity of child benefits was rolled back after having been implemented for about two years. One PDI was moved to an intermediate indicator. The SPL GP core sector indicator has been added to replace the direct project beneficiaries core sector indicator.

13 Table 1 Summary of DLIs changes DLI # Original DLI Revised DLI Amount Million 3 Three monthly performance No change 25 management reports for programs for Low-income households are produced by NASB and used as the management level in the MoLFSP and NASB 6 At least 90% of beneficiaries of the 6.(a) To improve institutional arrangements to sustain the 10 new consolidated program for low income households programs are paid through NAPSI for two consecutive months Minimum Inclusion Income Program: (i) MoLFSP has issued a ministerial order appointing the implementation team for the Minimum Inclusion Income Program, and (ii) NASB has adopted the development plan for the IT system for social assistance, including the module for the Minimum Inclusion Income Program. 6.(b) To improve targeting and coverage of the poor: (i) the Borrower has adopted the secondary legislation for the implementation of the Minimum Inclusion Income Program; (ii) MoLFSP has issued the operational guidelines for the implementation of Minimum Inclusion Income Program; and (iii) the consultancy contract to develop the module for the Minimum Inclusion Income Program before April 2018 is signed and effective The share of social assistance funds going to the first poorest quintile increased to 45% from 37.7% at baseline (in 2009), as measured by the Household Survey Budget 9 Enacted harmonized disability medical assessment criteria are disseminated 10 At least 90% of individuals who are certified for disability benefits according to the new harmonized disability system are paid through NASB 11 At least 90% of the new applications for the Low-income Households and Family Policy programs in the preceding two months comply with 7.(a) To increase the pro-poor budget allocation the MoPF has allocated funds for Minimum Inclusion Income Program in 2018 and 2019 amounting to at least RON 2.1 billion and RON 2.4 billion respectively in the Budgetary and Fiscal Strategy To increase the pro-poor budget allocation the Borrower has approved and submitted to Parliament the draft Budget Law for 2018 allocating funds for the Minimum Inclusion Income Program amounting to at least RON 2.1 billion. Harmonized medical and psychosocial criteria for invalidity pensions and disability allowances are adopted and disseminated 10.(a) NASB has carried out at least one thematic inspection campaign for invalidity pensions 10.(b) At least 90% of individuals who are certified for disability benefits are paid through NASB for at least one month 11.(a) At least 90% of the new applications for the Lowincome Household Programs and, respectively, Family Policy Programs received in the month preceding the verification survey comply with the one-application

14 one application and one-point of service operational guidelines 12 Administrative costs and client participation costs for means tested programs are reduced by 15% from baseline value 14 Remedial action plan is adopted by NASB to address the recommendations of: (i) an independent evaluation of the completeness and accuracy of the SAFIR information; and (ii) a feasibility study of SAFIR data crosscheck with other databases 17 Sanctions policy provisions, investigative powers and the referrals system for the Social Inspection are revised and in place 19 Risk-based investigation to detect error and fraud is used by the NASB through social inspection department for low income household programs, child raising and disability benefits operational guidelines 11.(b) To improve prevention of error and fraud in earnings-related benefits, NASB has: (i) issued guidelines on the use of private information on formal incomes from ANAF compliant with the data privacy law in force; and (ii) verified the self-declared income of the applicant families or households with the monthly formal income data from ANAF before issuing payments, for at least 90% of the new applicants for two consecutive months. 17.(a) NASB has revised and implemented a comprehensive referral system for Social Inspection and has carried out a round of inspections using the new referral system 17(b) NASB has carried out a round of inspections using an uniform sanction policy for social assistance benefits 17(c) NASB has carried out a round of inspections using new investigative powers Total

15 PDO Objecti ve: I. Strengt hened Perform ance Manage ment II. Putting in place Sufficie nt Conditi ons to Improv e Equity Table 2. Mapping of the DLIs to Results-Areas and their Target Timing Disbursement-Linked Indicators (DLIs) with target timing and amount (mil ) Adopted Action Plan for the Social Assistance Strategy is disseminated by the MoLFSP Three monthly monitoring reports of 4 programs (Family Allowance, Child Raising Benefits, GMI and State Child Allowance) are produced by NASB At least 90% of the family allowance beneficiaries are paid, through NASB, for two consecutive months according to harmonized means-testing procedures and lower eligibility threshold At least 90% of Child Raising Benefits beneficiaries Target Timing = a. To improve institutional arrangements to sustain the Minimum Inclusion Income Program: (i) MoLFSP has issued a ministerial order appointing the implementation team for the Minimum Inclusion Income Program, and (ii) NASB has adopted the development plan for the IT system Target Timing = Three monthly performance management reports for for Low-income Households Programs are produced by NASB and used at the management level in the MoLFSP and NASB. 25 6b. To improve targeting and coverage of the poor: (i) the Borrower has adopted the secondary legislation for the implementation of the Minimum Inclusion Income Program; (ii) MoLFSP has issued the operational guidelines for the implementation of Minimum Inclusion Income Program; and (iii) the consultancy contract to develop the module for the Minimum Inclusion Income Program before April 2018 is signed and effective. 15 PDO-Level Results Indicators (PDIs) PDI 1. A performance monitoring system for the meanstested programs is in place and used quarterly to take decisions on outlier values PDI 2. Legislation for consolidated program for Low-Income Households in place providing for improved targeting formula and increased average benefits

16 PDO Objecti ve: III. Improv ed Adminis trative Efficien cy Disbursement-Linked Indicators (DLIs) with target timing and amount (mil ) entering the program since January 1 st 2011are paid, trough NASB, for two consecutive months, using a lower replacement income of 75% Enacted harmonize d means testing procedures for the GMI, family allowance, and heating benefits are disseminat ed. 25 Target Timing = 2016 for social assistance, including the module for the Minimum Inclusion Income Program. 10 7a. To increase the pro-poor budget allocation the MoPF has allocated funds for Minimum Inclusion Income Program in 2018 and 2019 amounting to at least RON 2.1 billion and RON 2.4 billion respectively in the Budgetary and Fiscal Strategy a. At least 90% of the new applications for the Low-income Household Programs and, respectively, Family Policy Programs received in the month preceding the verification survey comply with the oneapplication operational guidelines. 15 Target Timing = b. To increase the propoor budget allocation the Borrower has approved and submitted to Parliament the draft Budget Law for 2018 allocating funds for the Minimum Inclusion Income Program amounting to at least RON 2.1 billion Harmonized medical and psychosocial criteria for invalidity pensions and disability allowances are adopted and disseminated b. At least 90% of individuals who are certified for disability benefits are paid through NASB for at least one month Administrative costs and client participation costs for means-tested PDO-Level Results Indicators (PDIs) PDI 2. Administrativ e costs and client participation costs for means-tested programs are reduced by 15% from baseline value

17 PDO Objecti ve: IV. Building Systems that Contrib ute to Reducin g Error and Fraud Disbursement-Linked Indicators (DLIs) with target timing and amount (mil ) At least one thematic inspection campaigns is carried out for each of the following programs: GMI, Disability Benefits, Family Allowance, Heating, and Child Raising Benefits At least 90% of GMI beneficiaries are paid through NASB for two consecutive months NASB to undertake data matching, covering at least a period of 3 months, between SAFIR records relating to CRB, GMI, FA and SCA programs, and relevant identity and income information derived from databases managed by National Public Pension House, National Employment Agency, ANAF and Registrul National de Evidenta a Populatiei, and lists of detected irregularities per program are sent to Social Inspection for verification and proposing remedial actions A central registry with a national database of disabled persons is in place. 25 Target Timing = 2016 Target Timing = 2017 programs are reduced by 15% from baseline value. 25 (intermediate outcome) 10a. NASB has carried out at least one thematic inspection campaign for invalidity pensions b. To improve prevention of error and fraud in earnings-related benefits, NASB has: (i) issued guidelines on the use of private information on formal incomes from ANAF compliant with the data privacy law in force; and (ii) verified the self-declared income of the applicant families or households with the monthly formal income data from ANAF before issuing payments, for at least 90% of the new applicants for two consecutive months Remedial action plan is adopted by NASB to address the recommendations of: (i) an independent evaluation of the completeness and accuracy of the SAFIR information; and (ii) a feasibility study of SAFIR data crosscheck with other databases a. NASB has revised and implemented a comprehensive referral PDO-Level Results Indicators (PDIs) PDI 3. At least one thematic inspection is carried out on at least four riskprone social assistance programs per year. PDI 4. Elements of an effective system to reduce EFC that are operational and used to detect irregularities in SA programs (data matching; risk profiling; uniform sanction policy; investigative powers)

18 PDO Objecti ve: Disbursement-Linked Indicators (DLIs) with target timing and amount (mil ) Target Timing = 2016 Target Timing = 2017 system for Social Inspection and has carried out a round of inspections using the new referral system. 5 17b. NASB has carried out a round of inspections using an uniform sanction policy for social assistance benefits c. NASB has carried out a round of inspections using new investigative powers Risk-based investigation to detect error and fraud is used by the Social Inspection for Low-Income Households, Child Raising and Disability Benefits. 25 PDO-Level Results Indicators (PDIs) # of DLIs Amount Mill III. SUMMARY OF CHANGES Changed Not Changed Change in Project's Development Objectives Change in Results Framework Change in Components and Cost

19 Change in Disbursement Estimates Change in Implementation Schedule Change in Economic and Financial Analysis Change in Implementing Agency Change in Loan Closing Date(s) Cancellations Proposed Change in Financing Plan Reallocation between Disbursement Categories Change in Disbursements Arrangements Change in Systematic Operations Risk-Rating Tool (SORT) Change in Safeguard Policies Triggered Change of EA category Change in Legal Covenants Change in Institutional Arrangements Change in Financial Management Change in Procurement Other Change(s) Change in Technical Analysis Change in Social Analysis Change in Environmental Analysis IV. DETAILED CHANGE(S) PROJECT DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVE Current PDO Improve the overall performance of Romania's social assistance system by strengthening performance management, improving equity, improving administrative efficiency and reducing error and fraud. Proposed New PDO Improve the overall performance of Romania's social assistance system by strengthening performance management, putting in place sufficient conditions to improve equity, improving administrative efficiency and building systems that contribute to reducing error and fraud.

20 PDO_I ND_TABLE The World Bank RESULTS FRAMEWORK Project Development Objective Indicators A performance monitoring system for the means-tested programs is in place and used quarterly to take decisions on outlier values Unit of Measure: Yes/No Value No No Yes Revised Date 31-Dec Sep Dec-2017 There is a systematic procedure to support management decisions using the M&E system Unit of Measure: Text Value Available management Available management information tools are M&E system is being information tools are not not used for monitoring used to support Marked for Deletion used for monitoring or or measuring management decisions measuring performance performance Date 20-Jul May Dec-2017 Legislation for consolidated program for Low-Income Households in place with improved targeting formula and increased average benefits Unit of Measure: Yes/No Value No No Yes Revised Date 31-Dec Sep Dec-2017 Administrative costs and client participation costs for means-tested programs are reduced by 15% from baseline value Unit of Measure: Text

21 Value 15.5 RON for client participation costs (estimated in 2012). Full baseline to be collected N.a. in Q3 or Q4 2016, and Reduction by 15% Revised tracked quarterly up to Q Procurement for consultant in progress. Date 31-Dec Sep Dec-2017 Programs for Low-Income Households, disability benefits and family policy have strengthened information systems Unit of Measure: Text Value Social Inspection Thematic inspections focuses on compliance Thematic inspections are carried out regularly with social services; 2 being carried out twice a for each of the main Marked for Deletion social assistance year risk-prone social inspections (GMI and assistance programs social aid) in 2008 Date 30-Apr May Dec-2017 At least one thematic inspection is carried out on at least four risk-prone social assistance programs per year Unit of Measure: Yes/No Value No Yes Yes Revised Date 31-Dec Sep Dec-2017 Direct project beneficiaries Unit of Measure: Number Indicator Type: Core Value Marked for Deletion Date 30-Apr Jun Dec-2017

22 IO_IND _TABLE The World Bank Female beneficiaries Unit of Measure: Percentage Indicator Type: Core Supplement Value Marked for Deletion Elements of an effective system to reduce EFC that are operational and used to detect irregularities in SA programs (data matching; risk profiling; uniform sanction policy; investigative powers) Unit of Measure: Number Value New Date 31-Dec Sep Dec-2017 Beneficiaries of Safety Nets programs (number) Unit of Measure: Number Indicator Type: Core Value New Date 31-Dec Dec Dec-2017 Beneficiaries of Safety Nets programs - Female (number) Unit of Measure: Number Indicator Type: Core Breakdown Value New Date 31-Dec Dec Dec-2017 Intermediate Indicators Percentage of the new applications for programs for low-income households and, respectively, family policy