NOVEMBER 22, 2017 ALUMINIUM

Transcription

1 ALUMINIUM Japan P1020A cif Spot cif MJP premium was stable in the $85-100/t range ahead of Q1 talks likely starting at end of Nov. Market participants await firm Q1 offers from producers, expect premiums within $ /t range, up from Q4 settlement of $94-95/t. Support seen from stable US and European premiums, Chinese winter production cuts, contango in LME nearby spreads. Japan P1020A cif Shanghai P1020A in-whs Premiums flat amid weak demand. Import window closed, losses at $340/t. SHFE aluminium stocks increased 24,679t - or 3.7% - vs last week to 691,260t on Nov 17. Shanghai P1020A cif Same as bonded Shanghai. Shanghai P1020A cif Taiwan P1020A cif Premium unchanged on limited spot trading as participants start talks on annual contracts. Support seen from contango in nearby LME spreads, bullish Q1 expectations for premiums. Singapore P1020A fob Spot trading limited. Republic of Korea P1020A cif Republic of Korea P1020A fca No spot deals heard. Most sellers reluctant to lower offers on bullish Q1 outlook, high US spot premium, China winter output cuts, contango in nearby LME spreads. Malaysia P1020A fob See Singapore fob. Republic of Korea P1020A cif See South Korea fca. South East Asia P1020A Warrants in-whs One assessment up to $25/t for good western brands but majority of market sees $20/t as high point. Live LME aluminium stocks at lowest since Q Stocks are down 4,200t this week despite large increase in Busan. East Asia P1020A Warrants in-whs See Southeast Asian warrants. Antwerp P1020A in-whs DUP Antwerp P1020A in-whs DP Premiums move up to reflect Rotterdam range this week. Antwerp still seen by most as $2/t below Rotterdam on top end due to higher costs. Premiums stable in line with Rotterdam duty-paid premiums. Top end of Antwerp range seen $2/t below Rotterdam's due to higher costs. Vlissingen P1020A in-whs DUP See Antwerp duty-unpaid. Vlissingen P1020A in-whs DP See Antwerp duty-paid. Italy P1020A fca DP Spain P1020A fca DP Premium picks back up on lower end. Figures under $185/t difficult to achieve. Upper end of range also difficult to achieve but offers remain in that area. Spot business quiet this week with an isolated deal reported in the middle of the range. Most consumers are well stocked for the rest of the year, some participants are expected to destock. Market outlook is flat for rest of year but bullish for next year. Second week in row that market participants see Spanish premiums at higher level. Business at lower premiums now difficult to achieve. Still, overall liquidity in the Spanish spot market is thin with year-end destocking expected to increase supply availability in coming weeks. Turkey P1020A cif DUP No spot deals reported but demand said to remain solid. IT IS A VIOLATION OF AMM COPYRIGHT TO PHOTOCOPY/DISTRIBUTE THIS PRODUCT

2 ALUMINUM (cont'd) Rotterdam P1020A in-whs DUP Market in agreement that the bulk of transactions are taking place in $90-95/t range. Traders testing levels below $90/t but no confirmed business done there. Buyers still declining offers above $95/t except for small volumes. Market participants monitoring nearby spreads because at $16.50/t, LME C/3M contango is only wide enough to break even with financing costs but not make a profit. Market outlook for next year's premiums continues to be positive on Chinese winter cuts. Rotterdam P1020A in-whs DUP Rotterdam P1020A in-whs DP Market participants focused on annual contract negotiations for 2018 supply. Some tendered business heard below $155/t but majority of business still within range. Thin spot trading with only about 2,500t of spot business captured in this assessment, on both sides of range. Nearby spreads remain in contango that can roughly cover financing costs but not generate profits. Business for 2018 reported around upper end of spot range, majority of deals done on floating basis on the MB index. United States P1020A Warrants in-whs Total Baltimore stocks fall below 10,000t, down 84% year to date. Midwest United States P1020A DLVD DUP cents/lb cents/lb Brazil P1020A DLVD Brazil P1020A cif Spot market exceptionally quiet due to Thanksgiving holiday. Pressure to downside as market is saturated with scrap, while arbitrage related shipments continue to arrive from South Korea. Spot buying interest remains thin, many industry participants still negotiating 2018 supply contracts. Premiums stable, reflecting a small deal and offers heard during the week. COPPER Shanghai grade A in-whs Shanghai grade A ER in-whs Shanghai grade A SX-EW in-whs Shanghai grade A cif Market slowed as Shanghai-London arbitrage window closed, buying interest shrunk. Offers for top brand cathode also negotiated lower, only a few deals heard at $80-82/t. Market focus mainly on long-term contract negotiations. Participants to gather in Shanghai next week to discuss 2018 market. Wide LME C/3M spread at $30/t continues to support in-warehouse copper premium, no rush sales so far. Metal Bulletin assessed Shanghai-bonded copper stocks at kt as of Nov 20, down 20kt from two weeks ago. Market for ocean cargoes weaker than that of in-warehouse stocks this week due to closed arbitrage window. Shanghai grade A ER cif Shanghai grade A SX-EW cif Demand for cathode slowed. Shanghai grade A cif Shanghai grade A in-whs Republic of Korea grade A cif South East Asia grade A cif South Korean market quiet, market participants focused on long-term contract negotiations. Trades seen taking place between $65-70/t. Market participants reported fewer supplies from Gresik due to lower ore grades, though limited impact on spot market so far. Japan grade A cif Little buying interest heard from Japanese buyers on spot. Taiwan grade A cif Buying interest seen from Taiwanese buyers, bid level around $60-65/t, offers at $70/t. Republic of Korea grade A cif IT IS A VIOLATION OF METAL BULLETIN COPYRIGHT TO PHOTOCOPY/DISTRIBUTE THIS PRODUCT PAGE 2

3 COPPER (cont'd) South East Asia grade A Warrant in-whs Live copper stocks down 27,400t this week with declines in Port Klang and Busan. LME 3M price stronger, still trading below $7,000/t. Copper C/3M spread at $29/t contango. East Asia grade A Warrant in-whs See Southeast Asian warrants. Rotterdam grade A cif The range has widened with buying interest shown at low $40/t and ample stock availability in Europe. LME C/3M price stood high at above $6,800/t. Buyers looking to enter spot market at lower premium. Trader sources also cited lackluster interest from buyers to enter annual contracts as many are well stocked. Italy grade A cif Germany grade A DLVD Premium edged down as spot deals were heard at low-$80s/t. Buyers generally well stocked and not in a hurry to purchase. As for 2018 contracts, buyers and traders hold very different views toward the premium - ranging from mid-$70s/t to above $100/t. Leghorn grade A cif North Europe grade A Warrant in-whs Live copper stocks in Europe edged 300t lower on decline in Rotterdam. Rest of European locations stable, no stock left in Leghorn. Southern Europe grade A Warrant in-whs See North European warrants. Midwest United States grade A DDP cents/lb cents/lb Almost no spot trades due to Thansgiving holiday but offers raised. Market participants at ACC indicated premiums expected to be 25 cents higher for 2018 contracts mostly due to increased logistical/freight costs and rising Fed interest rate. United States grade A Warrant in-whs CME stocks rose 208,780 short tons. LEAD India 99.97% cif India 99.99% cif South East Asia 99.97% cif South East Asia 99.99% cif Taiwan 99.97% cif Premiums softened, local market looks for bottom. Bids from consumers at $10-20/t premium but most offers reflect logistics costs above $40/t. Most importers will not ship metal at these levels, trade thin. Premium for four-nines stays unchanged in illiquid trading conditions. Primary lead constricted as TCs remain close to record lows. Southeast Asian buyers focused on long-term contracts. Market likely to favor 3-6-month deals rather than full-year commitments in 2018 due to high exchange prices, low spot premiums. LME price largely flat at $2,470/t. Consumers looking for prices to drop by $ /t before dipping into spot market. Premiums flat on weak demand. SHFE lead stocks up 4,905t - or 17.3% - vs last week to 33,218t on Nov 17. China produced 416,000t of refined lead, down 1.4% y-o-y and 2.6% m-o-m. Market negotiating 2018 long-term contracts. Taiwan 99.99% cif Same as 99.97% Taiwan cif. South East Asia 99.97% Warrants in-whs Live stocks dipped slightly despite increase in Busan. Stock in Port Klang unchanged since May. C/3M LME spread at $10/t contango. East Asia 99.97% Warrants in-whs See Southeast Asia warrants. Rotterdam 99.97% fca DP European secondary lead premiums remain just above FOT costs and broker fees. Demand seen from preparation for continental winter freeze. Rotterdam 99.99% fca DP See lead 99.97% Rotterdam DP fca. IT IS A VIOLATION OF METAL BULLETIN COPYRIGHT TO PHOTOCOPY/DISTRIBUTE THIS PRODUCT PAGE 3

4 LEAD (cont'd) Italy 99.97% fca DP Premiums remain higher in Italy after a secondary lead producing plant shut down. North Europe 99.97% Warrants in-whs Warrants in Europe remain in tight hands. Live stock in Europe down 1,525t this week on cancellations in Rotterdam. Majority of on-warrant stock remains in Rotterdam and Vlissingen. Southern Europe 99.97% Warrants in-whs See North European warrants. United States 99.97% Warrants in-whs No LME stocks in the US. Midwest United States 99.99% DDP cents/lb cents/lb Slight uptick in demand from battery producers has been reported. Supply is available, market in middle of settling long-term contracts for Midwest United States 99.97% DDP 9-11 cents/lb 9-11 cents/lb Same rationale as for 99.99%. NICKEL Shanghai 99.80% in-whs Shanghai 99.80% cif Shanghai Full plates cif Premium rises on positive arb, but more recent shipments into China and tight credit for end of year limit upside. Market participants expect Chinese refined nickel imports to be higher in Nov and Dec, easing full plate supply tightness. Tight credit limits buying interest, encourages selling. Shanghai Full plates in-whs Premium rebounds above $300/t after arb window reopens. Trading volume remains thin on tighter credit, more supply. LME/Wuxi Dec contract import arb turns profitable this week. Nickel stocks in Shanghai-bonded warehouses recovered from two-year low to 36-42kt at end of Oct, up 5.4% m-o-m but down 49.4% y-o-y. More full plates arriving in next two weeks according to traders. LME C/3M contango stable vs last week around $59/t. South East Asia briquettes Warrants in-whs One assessment at $5/t but majority of market sees $10/t as low end of range. Still strong demand for briquettes. Live LME stocks down 6,390t this week with decline in Johor. C/3M spreads little changed at $57.50 contango. East Asia briquettes Warrants in-whs See Southeast Asia briquettes warrants. South East Asia Full plates Warrants in-whs One bid as low as $60/t and one assessment up to $250/t but no concluded business. Russian brands still offered at $200/t. Availability for FP very tight amid strong import demand from China. Live nickel stocks declined this week. East Asia Full plates Warrants in-whs See Southeast Asia full plate warrants. Rotterdam Full plates in-whs Market steady with most participants at ferro-alloys conference in Lisbon. Offers and sales of several hundred tonnes reported at upper end of range. Calmer market after LME 3M price at around $11,800/t. Bullish premium expectations for 2018 contracts. Rotterdam 4x4 cathodes in-whs Premiums in line with full plates, tightening cutting capacities. Cutting costs around $ /t plus small trucking costs. IT IS A VIOLATION OF METAL BULLETIN COPYRIGHT TO PHOTOCOPY/DISTRIBUTE THIS PRODUCT PAGE 4

5 NICKEL (cont'd) Rotterdam briquettes in-whs North Europe Full plates Warrants in-whs Midwest United States 99.80% melting material DDP cents/lb cents/lb LME live nickel stocks unchanged in Rotterdam, very little availability in Europe. $58/t LME C/3M contango makes cash-and-carry trades profitable, keeping availability tight. Consumers acknowledging higher price environment may stay. Low availability of European warrants in-warehouse. Live stock in Europe dipped slightly this week on cancellation in Hamburg, no on-warrant stock left in Hamburg or Vlissingen. Robust demand expected to continue into 2018, supply remains tight. Long-term contract negotiations for next year ongoing. Midwest United States 99.80% plating material DDP cents/lb cents/lb TIN Shanghai 99.85% cif Premiums flat amid weak demand. SHFE stocks down 552t - or 6% - vs last week at 8,550t on Nov 17. Shanghai 99.9% cif Same as 99.85% Shanghai cif. Shanghai 99.9% cif Same as 99.85% Shanghai cif. Taiwan 99.9% cif Premium flat amid weak demand. Singapore 99.9% in-whs Premiums a touch lower on improved supply availability from Indonesia. Offers above $100/t not finding takers, with small Indonesian suppliers happy to sell at LME cash prices. Volumes traded on Indonesia's ICDX for exports rose 11% in Oct to 7,615t vs 6,865t in Sep, with 1,170 lots or 5,850t traded so far in Nov. Some supply shipped to Europe, bulk stays in Asia or is diverted to US where premiums are higher. Singapore 99.9% Low lead in-whs Slight decline in premiums reflects improved supply, lower buying interest. Spot trading remains illiquid. South East Asia min 99.85% Warrants in-whs Live LME stock 100t higher this week, availability remains very low. LME C/3M now at $82.50/t backwardation from more than $120/t two weeks ago. Rotterdam 99.85% in-whs Market drops in line with 99.9% assessment but no spot trade reported. MSC delivered into Asian warehouses, not making way to Europe anymore. No live stocks in Rotterdam, last 80t canceled out for delivery. Rotterdam 99.9% in-whs Premiums dip again slightly on adequate supply availability from Indonesia, reduced buying appetite amid start of year-end destocking. LME 3M price rebounds toward $19,500/t from $19,300/t last week while C/3M backwardation narrows further to $82/t from $97/t. Focus on long-term contracts for 2018, deals reported in $ /t range, slightly lower than last year. Rotterdam 99.9% Low lead in-whs Premiums stable within wide bid-offer spread of $ /t reported. Some year-end trading book housekeeping prompting a bit more spot business. Bolivian brand Enaf heard offered on spot by multiple parties. Market focused on 2018 supply contracts, first deals coming in at similar levels to spot. Baltimore 99.85% in-whs Some traders have tried to push premium up, citing rising interest rates and steep backwardation. Midwest United States 99.85% ASTM DLVD Demand muted, market expected to be quiet through holidays. IT IS A VIOLATION OF METAL BULLETIN COPYRIGHT TO PHOTOCOPY/DISTRIBUTE THIS PRODUCT PAGE 5

6 ZINC India SHG cif DP Little appetite for imports at current LME prices. India SHG cif DUP Shanghai SHG in-whs Zinc producers confident in domestic demand growth in India. Importers eye more attractive regional markets. Premiums down amid wider closed import window, import losses at 70/t. SHFE zinc stocks up 665t - or 0.8% - vs last week to 84,510t on Nov 17. Zhuzhou has started to build 300,000 tpy zinc smelting project in Shuikoushan, Hengyang city. Shanghai SHG cif Same as in warehouse Shanghai. Taiwan SHG cif Premiums flat in Taiwan amid weak spot demand. Market in long-term contract negotiations. Shanghai SHG in-whs Singapore SHG in-whs Singapore SHG fca Malaysia SHG in-whs Premium unchanged amid limited offers, spot trading. Backwardation in nearby LME spreads, high prices continue to deter buyers. Market braces for annual offers at Antaike and CESCO in China. Limited buying interest amid persistent backwardation in nearby LME spreads, high LME prices. Singapore, Malaysia off-warrant stocks available but just 1,675t held on-warrant in Johor, 25t in Port Klang. Malaysia SHG fca See Singapore fca. South East Asia SHG cif Premium unchanged on limited spot trading, scant buying interest on high LME prices. Market without Padaeng material entirely next year, potential for increased Indian exports to meet supply gap. Singapore SHG in-whs See Malaysia in warehouse. Rotterdam SHG fca DUP LME cash/3-months spread backwardation at $30/t Rotterdam SHG fca DP Focus remains on annual contract negotiations. Backwardation of $12 in LME cash/dec spread keeps pressure on some shorts to sell physical, but most knocked out last month and lowball offers have dried up. Market contemplates less tonnage in long term with prices, premiums uncertain in Antwerp SHG fca DP See Rotterdam DP fca. Antwerp SHG fca DUP Italy SHG fca DP Italy SHG DDP North Europe SHG Warrants in-whs United States SHG Warrants in-whs Midwest United States SHG DDP 8-9 cents/lb 8-9 cents/lb No more on-warrant stock in Antwerp after Nyrstar material warranted in Oct was canceled, 7,325t left Antwerp LME sheds in past week. Market premiums up marginally, little traded as focus remains on 2018 contract negotiations. Market weighs annual offers $10-15 up from $ delivered in Live LME stock in Europe remains unchanged with just 600t in Bilbao, no on-warrant stock in Antwerp. Stocks in New Orleans relatively stable, total 210,225t on Nov 21, down just 525t w-o-w. Premium flat amid lackluster spot market demand. Premiums expected to remain around this level due to planned shutdowns over upcoming holidays. No supply issues reported. Premiums are paid on top of London Metal Exchange cash prices to acquire ownership or secure delivery of physical metal at an agreed location and date. Rates vary according to brand, specification, purity, tonnage, payment terms and warehouse operator. (Table compiled by Metal Bulletin and AMM Newsdesks) If you wish to export any Metal Bulletin prices to distribute to other people or input them into a company system you will require a data licence. Click here to find out more. Please do not forward this . View our terms and conditions for more information. IT IS A VIOLATION OF METAL BULLETIN COPYRIGHT TO PHOTOCOPY/DISTRIBUTE THIS PRODUCT PAGE 6