JANUARY 17, 2018 ALUMINIUM

Transcription

1 ALUMINIUM Japan P1020A cif Japan P1020A cif Shanghai P1020A in-whs Shanghai P1020A cif Same as bonded Shanghai. Shanghai P1020A cif Taiwan P1020A cif Singapore P1020A fob Republic of Korea P1020A cif Republic of Korea P1020A fca Malaysia P1020A fob Republic of Korea P1020A cif See Republic of Korea fca. South East Asia P1020A Warrants in-whs East Asia P1020A Warrants in-whs See Southeast Asia warrants. Antwerp P1020A in-whs DUP Antwerp P1020A in-whs DP Vlissingen P1020A in-whs DUP See Antwerp duty-unpaid. Vlissingen P1020A in-whs DP See Antwerp duty-paid. JANUARY 17, 2018 Q1 MJP premium settled on Dec 14 at $103/t, up 9% from Q4 s premium of $94-95/t, with more than 35kt of trades reported to Metal Bulletin at those levels. Spot cif main Japanese port (MJP) premium rises slightly in a quiet market with some deals heard at lower and middle portion of range. Indications and offers as high as $110/t but no deals reported at that level yet. Bullish tone fueled by higher premiums and threat of import duties in the US. Some destocking activity expected in Q1 as the financial year in Japan ends for most companies on March 31. Premium flat amid weak demand and closed import window. China exported 440kt of unwrought aluminium and aluminium products in Dec, up 15.8% vs prior month and 12.8% vs prior year. Small volumes of re-export trading heard. SHFE aluminium stocks increased 1% - or 7,731t - vs last week to 773,941t on Jan 12. Premium unchanged, some deals heard on in-warehouse basis. Sellers said no hurry to sell on limited stock availability. Premium unchanged on limited spot trading, one ex-warehouse deal heard. Premium unchanged as spot trading activity stayed slow. Lower end seen as achievable for non-duty-free material, higher end seen as achievable for delivery to Incheon. Some concerns in market about Chinese coils being sold in Asia as substitutes for ingots. Premium range narrows amid slow spot trading, offers heard on fca basis. Ample supply in Malaysia. One trade up to $20/t for good western brands but majority of the market still sees $15/t as the high end of the range. Live LME stocks fell 12,525t this week despite increase in Port Klang. On-warrant stocks remain at lowest level since Premium moves higher to track Rotterdam range this week. Antwerp still seen by most as $2/t below Rotterdam on top end due to higher costs. Premium moves higher to reflect Rotterdam duty-paid premium. Top end of Antwerp range seen $2/t below Rotterdam's due to higher costs. Italy P1020A fca DP Spain P1020A fca DP Turkey P1020A cif DUP Participants see increasing premiums in the US supporting higher numbers in Italy. Business quieter this week, with several isolated small deals going above the range. Outside of small-tonnage deals, above range is difficult to achieve. Salerno premium at higher end, while Trieste and Genoa in the lower to middle portion of the range. Further moves higher could be limited as shipments from Canada to the region could put some pressure on the premium in Tight supply and increased logistics costs are supporting prices in the region. Market is more focused on doing business for higher purity material. Range for primary metal narrows, with low end picking up. Market sentiment more bullish, making business below $120/t difficult to achieve. Most contracts for Q1 have been completed, and participants are starting to discuss Q2 contracts. IT IS A VIOLATION OF AMM COPYRIGHT TO PHOTOCOPY/DISTRIBUTE THIS PRODUCT

2 ALUMINUM (cont'd) Rotterdam P1020A in-whs DUP Business below $95/t has become very difficult to achieve, though some continue to test the level. Offers now mostly at three-digit level, and even bids have been reported at $100/t. Traders said to be short covering and in general upbeat sentiment seen in anticipation of stock decline and higher premiums in Asia and US. LME spreads tightening, with C/3M contango at just $10/t, which is not wide enough to cover financing costs. Feb/March spread in $1.50/t backwardation. Premium uptrend not yet affected with contango expected to widen again soon. Rotterdam P1020A in-whs DUP Rotterdam P1020A in-whs DP United States P1020A Warrants in-whs Midwest United States P1020A DLVD DUP cents/lb cents/lb Brazil P1020A DLVD Brazil P1020A cif Market rises toward $170/t but no deal taking place at that level, although small volume transacted up to $169/t and bids reported at upper end of range. Buying below $160/t seen tougher, with high LME prices and high US premiums supporting bullish sentiment in past week. Duty-paid market still quiet with more business focused on duty-unpaid material. Market sees stronger premiums for 2018, although first reported shipments from Canada to Europe could put lid on uptrend. Nearby spreads narrow with LME C/3M at $9.25/t contango. Feb/March spread in small backwardation of $1.50/t. Live stock in the US steady at 41,975t. Total stocks down 850t to 64,350t. Premium jumped 9% week on week, to highest level since May 2015 as the specter of Section 232 tariffs has market nervous about near-term supply. Premium futures have moved into wide contango, and producers are offering high numbers to consumers. Some traders are a little more skeptical and don t see enough demand to support the rally. Prices also supported by record-high freight rates and the lockout at the ABI smelter in Canada. Spot demand remains timid, but rising US Midwest premium is expected to push up domestic premium in the short term. Spot demand remains low and domestic premium was reportedly more competitive. COPPER Shanghai grade A in-whs Market remains slow this week. Few good brands available in-warehouse recently, while SX-EW cathode stock lacks buying interest. Few rush sales reported since LME C/3M spread contango remains favorable to stock holding. Shanghai grade A ER in-whs Same as above. Shanghai grade A SX-EW in-whs Shanghai grade A cif Shanghai grade A ER cif Market sees weak sentiment in near term, end-users such as rod producers are operating at a slow rate as a result of the environmental crackdown in the country, and restocking purchases from other sectors in the market are nearly finished. Metal Bulletin assessed Shanghai-bonded copper stocks at kt as of Jan 15, up slightly from the start of the month. Lack of buying interest for SX-EW material. Cargoes on cif basis remain under pressure as demand remains slow. Fewer offers were heard this week due to continuous low buying interest since the beginning of the year. Sentiment widely bearish on premium few signs indicate demand recovery soon, and a further decrease is widely expected. Shanghai grade A SX-EW cif Same as above. Shanghai grade A cif Shanghai grade A in-whs Republic of Korea grade A cif China imported 4.69 million tonnes of unwrought copper and copperfabricated products in 2017, down 5.2% from last year. Deals for SX-EW cathodes reported at low $60s and even lower depending on shipment arrival time. Limited spot demand heard due to sufficient supply from long-term contracts. Codelco offered $70/t premium cif Korea, Taiwan and Japan for IT IS A VIOLATION OF METAL BULLETIN COPYRIGHT TO PHOTOCOPY/DISTRIBUTE THIS PRODUCT PAGE 2

3 COPPER (cont'd) South East Asia grade A cif Japan grade A cif Taiwan grade A cif Republic of Korea grade A cif South East Asia grade A Warrant in-whs East Asia grade A Warrant in-whs See Southeast Asia warrants. Rotterdam grade A cif Italy grade A cif Small deals reported in a higher range of $70-80/t, demand showing small recovery, which may be related to disruptions at smelters nearby. Glencore s Pasar copper smelter and refinery in the Philippines have halted operations since early Jan due to a technical failure, and cargoes from the facilities have been diverted into the spot market. Technical issues at Birla Copper s Dahej copper smelter in India led the plant to reduce output and delay scheduled cargoes of copper concentrates or divert them into the spot market. Codelco offered $75/t cif Southeast Asia for 2018, up from $72/t in Japan premium still lacks spot liquidity due to high reliance on contractual deals. Codelco offers FY 2018 annual premium at $70/t, up $2 from Taiwan market slow before Chinese New Year, companies mostly finished restocking purchasing, market unlikely to see big changes in following weeks. Copper warrants in Asia stable. Total live stocks up 2,675t this week despite decline in Busan and Port Klang. LME C/3M spread widened to $41/t contango. Premium unchanged since late November as spot market remains quiet. Ample stocks are available with limited buying interest. LME C/3M spread widens Tuesday to contango of $43/t, a level covering financing costs. Aggressive offers have been heard in the market this week following delayed vessels. Limited transactions are heard with supply tightness expected to ease in the near future. Germany grade A DLVD Market well covered by long-term contracts Leghorn grade A cif See Italy Grade A, cif, $ per tonne. North Europe grade A Warrant in-whs Southern Europe grade A Warrant in-whs See North Europe warrants. Midwest United States grade A DDP cents/lb United States grade A Warrant in-whs LEAD India 99.97% cif India 99.99% cif cents/ lb Stronger interest in European copper warrants this week. Live copper stocks in Europe up 2,800t despite decline in Liverpool. LME 3M price still above $7,000/t. January business is encouraging and spot premium could rise in Feb according to market participants. US warrant levels stable in quiet trading conditions. CME warehousing stocks stand at 212,925 short tons. Premium remains depressed, with small tonnages sold to battery makers in India within the range. Import demand weak amid strong domestic production. Refined lead production rose 8% for the first 10 months last year. High LME 3M price above $2,500/t also deterring imports. Both producer and trader sources are seeing a rise in lead 99.99% ingots this week. Delta between duty-free and duty-unpaid premiums persists at around $50/t. South East Asia 99.97% cif Market widens with higher premium observed in Malaysia. South East Asia 99.99% cif Taiwan 99.97% cif Taiwan 99.99% cif South East Asia 99.97% Warrants in-whs East Asia 99.97% Warrants in-whs See Southeast Asia warrants. Premium stays unchanged with LME 3M spreads sitting on a $12.75/t contango on Tuesday. Premium range widens amid wider price differentials reported for various brands. Negotiations for 2018 long-term contracts almost done, deals for 99.97% lead ingots cif Taiwan reported at a wide range of $60-120/t, price varies with specs and producing areas. SHFE lead stocks down 0.8% - or 323t - vs last week to 42,139t on Jan 12. Premiums higher following high annual contract prices. Negotiations for 2018 long-term contracts almost done, deals for 99.99% lead ingots cif Taiwan reported at $ /t. One assessment at $10/t but no trades at this level. Live lead stocks down 736t this week, little changed in Asian locations. LME C/3M back in contango after a $13.75/t backwardation last week. IT IS A VIOLATION OF METAL BULLETIN COPYRIGHT TO PHOTOCOPY/DISTRIBUTE THIS PRODUCT PAGE 3

4 LEAD (cont'd) Rotterdam 99.97% fca DP Rotterdam 99.99% fca DP Premium stable in quiet spot market. Downward pressure in the European market might have built up as dollar has gained strength in the past year. Spot market is traditionally active in January but the high lead price has kept many buyers out of market. LME 3M price continues to stay above $2,500/t. Italy 99.97% fca DP Premium unchanged with limited spot activity. North Europe 99.97% Warrants in-whs Southern Europe 99.97% Warrants in-whs See North Europe warrants. United States 99.97% Warrants in-whs No LME stocks in the US. Midwest United States 99.99% DDP cents/lb cents/lb Midwest United States 99.97% DDP 9-11 cents/lb 9-11 cents/lb Same rationale as for 99.99%. NICKEL Shanghai 99.80% in-whs Quiet trading conditions for lead warrants in Europe. Live stocks in Europe down 750t this week with decline in Leghorn. Lead premium ticks up slightly due to tight supply. Demand has picked up with the frigid weather along the East Coast. Shanghai 99.80% cif Premium unchanged around $300/t amid thin trading. Impact of negative import arbitrage for refined nickel offset by historically low Shanghai-bonded stocks. Stocks in Shanghai-bonded warehouses decreased to historic low of 28,000-34,000t at end of Dec, down 22.5% vs prior month and 61.7% vs prior year. Arb between LME and Wuxi stays negative at around $335/t compared to previous week s $300/t. Negative import arb expected to stay after increase in import tax at beginning of Shanghai Full plates cif Shanghai Full plates in-whs South East Asia briquettes Warrants in-whs Premium edges below $280/t amid sustained import loss, fading buying interest and quieter spot market. Arb between LME and Wuxi stays negative at around $285/t compared to previous week s $300/t. More domestic refined stocks weigh on Chinese domestic refined nickel prices. SHFE refined nickel stocks increased by 17,364t since Dec 22 to 57,395 tonnes on Jan 12. Three trading firms have accepted Nornickel s 2018 long-term contract offer of at least $300/t while majority of customers are still holding off, Metal Bulletin understands. One offer up to $30/t but majority of the market see $20/t as high point. Demand for briquettes in Asia still very strong. Live stocks up 6,210t this week, increase in Port Klang for the first time since October East Asia briquettes Warrants in-whs See Southeast Asia briquettes warrants. South East Asia Full plates Warrants in-whs No trades reported this week due to tight market. Still very limited availability of full plates. LME 3M price remains firmly above $12,000/t. East Asia Full plates Warrants in-whs See Southeast Asia full-plate warrants. Rotterdam Full plates in-whs Rotterdam 4x4 cathodes in-whs Rotterdam briquettes in-whs Premium stays at 11-year high. Strong bullish sentiment in the market, spurred by extremely tight full-plate material, has made it more difficult to do business below range. Bullish tone also fueled by long-term contract negotiations, deals booked at much higher premium than 2017's annual contracts and about level with spot premiums. Premium firm in line with full plates and tightening cutting capacities. Cutting costs around $ /t plus small trucking costs. Business concluded in middle of range, offers starting above the range. Participants still waiting to see effect of Chinese duty changes when market picks back up in coming weeks. Bullish sentiment and tight market helping support the price. LME live stocks slightly up at 24,708t from 24,660t last week. LME C/3M contango stable at $59/t, wide enough to cover financing costs. Consumers acknowledging higher price environment may stay. LME 3M price slightly below $12,500/t. IT IS A VIOLATION OF METAL BULLETIN COPYRIGHT TO PHOTOCOPY/DISTRIBUTE THIS PRODUCT PAGE 4

5 NICKEL (cont'd) North Europe Full plates Warrants in-whs Midwest United States 99.80% melting material DDP cents/lb cents/lb One assessment at $240 but most see $200/t as the high point of the range. Live stocks in Europe down slightly this week but still no available stock left in Hamburg or Vlissingen. Availability of full-plate warrants in Europe remains tight. Strong demand for material. Tight supply expected to linger in the short term. Midwest United States 99.80% plating material DDP cents/lb cents/lb TIN Shanghai 99.85% cif Premium unchanged amid lack of spot trading. Domestic supply reported to be tight with smelters' production affected by environmental inspections. SHFE stocks stable vs last week at 5,318t on Jan 12. Market participants eyeing chance to export this year. Shanghai 99.9% cif Same as 99.85% Shanghai cif. Shanghai 99.9% cif Same as 99.85% Shanghai cif. Taiwan 99.9% cif Singapore 99.9% in-whs Singapore 99.9% Low lead in-whs South East Asia min 99.85% Warrants in-whs Rotterdam 99.85% in-whs Rotterdam 99.9% in-whs Rotterdam 99.9% Low lead in-whs Baltimore 99.85% in-whs Midwest United States 99.85% ASTM DLVD Premium unchanged amid weak spot demand. Market expected to be stable before Chinese New Year. Premium increases to levels last seen in May 2017, with spot offers rising in line with lack of Indonesian exports. Indonesian smelters in process of renewing their export quotas for 2018, paperwork delaying shipments. But one vessel could leave Bangka Island as soon as next week. Spot supply remains adequate after high Q4 exports but stock holders pushing premium up, offers close to $150/t heard but not finding takers. Trades continue on ICDX for exports later on - 2,890t traded so far this month. Higher premium for low-lead material due to lack of spot availability - Indonesian smelters are not exporting and few participants have stocks. ICDX data shows only 40t of tin with 50ppm lead content traded so far this year. One assessment up to $80/t but no business taking place at this level. On-warrant LME tin stocks down 510t this week after cancellations in Port Klang, said to go to other Asian countries for further refining. LME C/3M widening again, now at $35/t backwardation from $18/t last week. Market soft with no new spot trades reported to Metal Bulletin. MSC mostly delivered into Asian warehouses and not making way to Europe anymore. No live stocks in Rotterdam, last 80t canceled out for delivery. Premium rebounds slightly to six-week high as lack of Indonesian exports fuels bullish tone and higher spot offers. But demand only slowly picking up after the holiday season, and most traders seem well stocked following the high exports in Q4 last year. LME 3M price firm above $20,300/t and C/3M backwardation slightly wider at $35/t following LME stock decline. Long-term contracts for 2018 concluded on either side of $325/t, slightly higher than in Big jump in premium for low-lead tin of nearly 19% week on week to highest level in 10 months due to tightness in spot supply availability, especially for 50ppm material. South American producers mostly sold out, Indonesian suppliers not exporting at present on lack of license and traders holding stocks raising offers as a result. But only small inquiries reported on spot market, with consumers largely covered by long-term contracts. Premium reported at similar level to 2017 around $ /t, except for isolated aggressive selling below $500/t. Premium steady amid lack of demand. Supply expected to tighten with lack of exports from Indonesia, which could impact premium in near term. Tight capacity in the trucking industry is pushing costs higher and causing delays in material transport. IT IS A VIOLATION OF METAL BULLETIN COPYRIGHT TO PHOTOCOPY/DISTRIBUTE THIS PRODUCT PAGE 5

6 ZINC India SHG cif DP India SHG cif DUP Shanghai SHG in-whs Premium stays in line with offer from main importer to India. No recent trade heard while LME 3M spread backwardation widens to $41/t. Spot deal for small tonnages heard at a premium above $100/t to India despite limited spot demand. Premium flat amid closed import window, high market stock levels. Import loss at about $171/t on Jan 15. Demand still weak as environmental inspections curb downstream buying activity. SHFE zinc stocks up 2.2% - or 1,668t - vs last week to 79,051t on Jan 12. Shanghai SHG cif See Shanghai zinc in-warehouse. Taiwan SHG cif Premium flat vs last week on weak spot demand after settlement of annual premiums. High annual contract premiums supporting spot prices. Market expected to be stable before Chinese New Year. Shanghai SHG in-whs Singapore SHG in-whs Singapore SHG fca Malaysia SHG in-whs Limited spot trading as high prices deter demand. Offers heard at $ /t in Singapore and Malaysia, but most participants do not see these levels as achievable. Some sellers remain reluctant to lower offers despite nearby LME spreads staying in backwardation. Limited spot trading due to high prices. Higher offers of up to $100/t in Singapore and Malaysia not finding takers. Malaysia SHG fca See Singapore fca. South East Asia SHG cif Premium range narrows with upper end seen as achievable for cif Vietnam, with good demand growth expected from Vietnamese market in High LME price likely to slow spot buying interest but support seen from limited availability of spot material in the region, long-term contract settlements. Long-term contracts in Southeast Asia heard settled at $ /t. Singapore SHG in-whs See in-warehouse Malaysia. Rotterdam SHG fca DUP Rotterdam SHG fca DP Antwerp SHG fca DP Higher prices and backwardation limit physical trade in Europe. Consumers eye potential price correction as new mines bring tonnage to market in H Traders expressed concerns over rising cost of holding zinc stocks as backwardation in LME 3M spreads widened since last week. Around 50,000t of LME zinc stocks went off-warrant in the past 10 days. Limited spot activity. Small tonnages sold at above $140/t. LME 3M zinc price peaked this year at $3,433/t on Jan 15. Antwerp SHG fca DUP No more on-warrant stock in Antwerp. Italy SHG fca DP A delta of $30-$40/t between premium in Rotterdam and Italy is expected to persist as zinc supply is relatively tight. Italy SHG DDP See Zinc SHG ingots Italy duty-paid FCA. North Europe SHG Warrants in-whs United States SHG Warrants in-whs Midwest United States SHG DDP 8-9 cents/lb 8-9 cents/lb No business reported this week. Live stocks unchanged in Europe with just 600t in Bilbao, but total global on-warrant stocks down 26,400t on cancellation in New Orleans. Zinc stocks in New Orleans dropped 100t week on week to 178,550t on Jan 16. Canceled warrants have risen to 66,400t, up more than 20,000t week on week. Consumers purchasing material as needed due to high LME price. If LME price continues to rise, substitution talk could turn into action. Premiums are paid on top of London Metal Exchange cash prices to acquire ownership or secure delivery of physical metal at an agreed location and date. Rates vary according to brand, specification, purity, tonnage, payment terms and warehouse operator. (Table compiled by Metal Bulletin and AMM Newsdesks) If you wish to export any Metal Bulletin prices to distribute to other people or input them into a company system you will require a data licence. Click here to find out more. Please do not forward this . View our terms and conditions for more information. IT IS A VIOLATION OF METAL BULLETIN COPYRIGHT TO PHOTOCOPY/DISTRIBUTE THIS PRODUCT PAGE 6